Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - In the iron alloy market, the latest prices of different grades of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in various regions are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron is 5320, with no daily change and a 50 decrease weekly, and its factory price converted to the futures price is 5620 [1]. - Price trends of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in different regions from 2022 - 2026 are shown, including market prices, export and import prices, and basis differences [2][6]. Supply - Data on the production of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, such as the monthly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026, and the weekly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (with a 95% capacity share) [4]. - The capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are presented [4]. - Information about the production and supply of related products like metal magnesium and stainless - steel crude steel is also included, such as the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China from 2022 - 2026 [4]. Demand - Demand - related data such as the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China from 2022 - 2026 are provided, along with the demand for silicon - manganese in China (according to the Steel Union's data) [4][7]. - The procurement volume and price of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group are presented [4][6]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are shown, including the weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China and in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi), and the daily inventory - related data such as the total number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts on CZCE [5]. - For silicon - manganese, inventory data such as the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the combined inventory on CZCE are provided, along with the inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) [7]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related data such as electricity prices for iron alloys in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi) from 2022 - 2026, and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi are presented [5]. - Profit - related data such as the production profit of semi - coke in China, the production cost and profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions are provided [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series products still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the macro - policy is in a window period. Attention should be paid to the destocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The supply of iron ore is expected to gradually enter the off - season, and after the recovery of molten iron production, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve marginally. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory replenishment of steel mills and the rhythm of molten iron production [5] - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. However, attention should be paid to the short - term high - volatility risks. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly influenced by market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction expectations [8][9] - The positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of coal production capacity reduction have driven the upward movement of coking coal prices. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises and market sentiment [13][14] - Industrial silicon is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [17][20] - The glass price has been boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash market is still weak due to continuous supply pressure and weak demand [23][25] 3. Summary of Each Category Steel Market Information - The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.126%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 57,766 tons, a net increase of 1,833 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.6915 million lots, an increase of 3,518 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices were 3,210 yuan/ton and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [1] - The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,306 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.090%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173,103 tons, with no change. The open interest of the main contract was 1.4489 million lots, an increase of 8,625 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices were 3,280 yuan/ton and 3,290 yuan/ton respectively, with the Shanghai price up 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. Rebar production increased counter - seasonally, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series products oscillated at the bottom and were sensitive to news. Attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil destocking and "dual - carbon" policies [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 821.00 yuan/ton, up 0.18% (+1.50). The open interest increased by 9,381 lots to 662,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 1.002 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.50 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.76% [4] Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline. The shipments from Brazil decreased significantly, and those from Rio Tinto and BHP among the major mines decreased. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. The daily molten iron production was 229.5 tons, and the utilization rate of blast furnaces increased. The port inventory continued to increase, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' inventory replenishment and molten iron production [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 14, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) closed up 0.07% at 5,920 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5,940 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) closed up 0.14% at 5,690 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 160 yuan/ton [7] - The manganese silicon price has been oscillating after breaking away from the medium - term downward trend since May 2024. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 6,000 yuan/ton and 6,250 yuan/ton and the support at 5,800 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price has returned to range - bound trading. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 5,850 yuan/ton and 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at 5,500 yuan/ton [7] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market has led to the upward movement of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon prices. However, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future market trends are mainly influenced by market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction expectations. Attention should be paid to possible restrictions on manganese ore exports and "dual - carbon" policies [8][9] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On January 14, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) oscillated and closed up 0.46% at 1,196.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanxi low - sulfur and medium - sulfur coking coal and Jinquan Meng 5 refined coal all increased to varying degrees, with premiums on the futures market. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.37% at 1,738.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke decreased and remained unchanged respectively, with discounts on the futures market [11] - The coking coal price is in a rebound cycle, with resistance at around 1,260 yuan/ton and support at 1,130 - 1,150 yuan/ton. The coke price is approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021. If it breaks through, the resistance is at around 1,850 yuan/ton, and the support is at 1,650 - 1,700 yuan/ton [12] Strategy Views - The strong coking coal price was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of coal production capacity reduction. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises and market sentiment [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, up 1.39% (+120). The weighted open interest decreased by 10,310 lots to 368,426 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged, with basis values of 445 yuan/ton and 95 yuan/ton respectively [16] - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 48,945 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (-60). The weighted open interest decreased by 930 lots to 87,836 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 5,805 yuan/ton [18] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon production in December remained stable, and the supply - side improvement was limited. The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was expected to be weak. If the production cut or shutdown plan of a polysilicon leading enterprise is implemented, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon will deteriorate. The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure [17] - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustments have affected the polysilicon price. The spot price has increased, but downstream观望 sentiment is strong. If the production cut or shutdown plan is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The polysilicon futures price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [19][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main glass contract closed at 1,096 yuan/ton on Wednesday, with no change. The prices of large - size glass in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 134,800,000 boxes (-2.37%) to 55,518,000 boxes. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 25,090 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 8,485 lots [22] - The main soda ash contract closed at 1,222 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 0.83% (+10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 164,400 tons (+2.37%) to 1,572,700 tons, with increases in both heavy and light soda ash inventories. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3,272 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 4,260 lots [24] Strategy Views - The glass price has been boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual spot transactions, and it is recommended to wait and see [23] - The soda ash supply is stable, but the demand from the photovoltaic and float glass industries has decreased. The enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron (FeSi), prices vary by region and grade, e.g., Ningxia 72 is 5320, Inner Mongolia 72 is 5350 [1] - For silicon manganese (SiMn), the closing price of the main contract on CZCE shows different trends over the years [6] - There are price differences in different regions and grades of FeSi and SiMn, such as the north - south price difference of SiMn [6] Supply - The production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China shows different trends over the years, and the production capacity utilization rate also varies by region [4] - The production of silicon manganese in China shows a changing trend, and the procurement volume of HeSteel Group also changes over time [6] Demand - The demand for silicon manganese in China (by Steel Union's caliber) shows an upward trend over the years [4][7] - The production of crude steel in China has an impact on the demand for ferroalloys [4][7] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises in China and different regions shows different trends over the years [5] - The inventory - related data of silicon manganese, including warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them, show different trends [7] Cost and Profit - The production cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia show different trends over the years [5] - The profit of silicon manganese in different regions, such as Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, also shows different trends [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The black series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policy, and its impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to enter the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, the commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repair and fuel - cost increase, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, the demand is weak, and the overall pattern remains weak [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3158 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55933 tons, a net increase of 1512 tons. The main contract positions were 1.6879 million lots, a net decrease of 38760 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3303 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173103 tons, a net increase of 60866 tons. The main contract positions were 1.4403 million lots, a net increase of 12752 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The output of rebar increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market rumors and information screening [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 819.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.36% (- 3.00), and the positions changed by - 1527 lots to 653300 lots. The weighted positions were 989800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron - ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipment from Brazil decreased significantly, and the shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased. The shipment from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume continued to increase [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast - furnace utilization rate in some areas recovered, and the steel - mill profitability decreased slightly [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill imported - ore inventory increased but remained at a low level [5]. - Outlook: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel - mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.24% at 5916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 yuan/ton [8]. - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.28% at 5682 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The ferrosilicon showed relative strength due to rumors but then gave up the gains [9]. - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand structure of manganese silicon is loose, with high inventory and weak downstream demand, but these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10]. - Future drivers: The market direction of the black sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 3.80% at 1191.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1525.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 143 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.41% at 1745.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1490 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Views - Previous drivers: The bullish commodity - market atmosphere and the news of coking - coal production - capacity reduction [15]. - Outlook: The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 120). The weighted positions changed by + 3755 lots to 378736 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 565 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Supply: The production in December was stable, the furnace - opening number in the southwest decreased to a low level, and the supply improvement was limited [19]. - Demand: The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was weak. The demand from the organic - silicon industry was relatively stable [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 49005 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.98% (- 990). The weighted positions changed by - 2302 lots to 88766 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 54.25 yuan/kg, and the basis was 5745 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment led to price weakness [21]. - Fundamental analysis: The spot price increased, but downstream hesitation persisted. The supply pressure may ease if the production - cut plan of a leading enterprise is implemented [22]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 4.11% (- 47). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 134.80 million cases (- 2.37%) [24]. - Strategy Views: The glass daily melting volume decreased, and the fuel - cost increase boosted the price. However, the terminal demand was weak, and the high inventory restricted the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 2.18% (- 27). The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 16.44 million tons [25]. - Strategy Views: The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall pattern remained weak [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The report presents the latest prices, daily and weekly changes of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in different regions, including spot prices, factory - price converted to futures prices, and futures contract prices. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron is 5320, with a weekly increase of 50 [1]. - It also shows historical price trends of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese from 2022 to 2026, covering various regions and contract types [2][6]. Supply - For silicon - iron, it shows the production volume of 136 Chinese silicon - iron enterprises (monthly and weekly), and the capacity utilization rate of silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) [4]. - For silicon - manganese, it presents the weekly production volume in China and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The report shows the estimated and actual production volume of Chinese crude steel (monthly), the production volume of Chinese stainless - steel crude steel (monthly), and the demand volume of Chinese silicon - manganese (in ten thousand tons) [4][7]. - It also includes the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [4][6]. Inventory - For silicon - iron, it presents the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), the total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts (daily), and the average available days of inventory in different regions (monthly) [5]. - For silicon - manganese, it shows the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory (daily), the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly), and the average available days of inventory in China (monthly) [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon - iron, it shows the electricity prices in different regions (daily), the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi (daily), and the production cost, futures - contract - converted profit, and spot profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - For silicon - manganese, it shows the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the futures - contract - converted profit in Guangxi and Ningxia [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 13th, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5682, down 0.28%, with a decrease of 3885 in positions; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5916, down 0.24%, with an increase of 3675 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable on the 13th. The supply side may contract in the future due to the need for technological transformation in Shaanxi enterprises. The demand side has limited future blast - furnace resumption space. With strong cost support and supply contraction expectations, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, on the 13th, manganese ore and manganese - silicon spot prices were moderately strong. The supply side is generally stable, and the demand side is supported by blast - furnace resumption and pre - Spring Festival restocking. Driven by cost, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to the expected improvement in supply - demand and cost push; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Data**: The SF main contract closed at 5682, down 16 for the day and 94 for the week, with a trading volume of 162,961 (down 38,469) and an open interest of 224,722 (down 3885). The SM main contract closed at 5916, down 14 for the day and 2 for the week, with a trading volume of 143,149 (down 1617) and an open interest of 260,989 (up 3675) [3]. - **Spot Data**: For silicon - iron, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5450, 5420, 5350, 5750, and 5850 respectively, with different weekly changes. For manganese - silicon, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5750, 5650, 5850, 5820, and 5750 respectively, with different weekly changes [3]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spread data of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis of silicon - iron was - 232, up 16 for the day and 184 for the week [3]. - **Raw Material Data**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump had different daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile and bullish in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information**: On the 13th, the price quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed. A large steel group in Hebei increased its silicon - manganese procurement in January compared to December 2025 [8][9]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes various graphs such as the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM contracts, the monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the spot prices of silicon - manganese, the electricity prices of ferroalloys, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [10][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel: The demand for rebar weakens seasonally as construction in the north halts, and the destocking slope of hot-rolled coils slows down and is expected to turn into inventory accumulation. The supply fundamentals weaken as the iron water output rebounds and the steel mill profits improve, leading to a month-on-month increase in both outputs. The support from furnace materials and its low valuation limit the downside space. The iron ore replenishment expectation supports the ore price, but the accumulation of port inventories restricts the increase. Coking coal prices rise due to production cut news, but the inventory base is relatively large, and both are expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The price rises due to capital spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak. The supply side has neutral shipments, high floating inventories at sea, and continuous arrival pressure, with abundant spot goods. On the demand side, although the iron water output has bottomed out and rebounded, the steel market has entered the off - season, and the rebar inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, making it difficult to support a continuous and substantial increase in iron water production. The port inventory has exceeded 170 million tons and continues to accumulate, resulting in a deviation between price and fundamentals [20]. - Coal and Coke: The domestic mines continue to resume production, and the number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the import end has declined but remains at a high level year - on - year. The price difference between Australian coal at home and abroad is inverted, leading to a possible decline in subsequent arrivals. The iron water output of steel mills has stabilized and rebounded, increasing procurement demand. The start of winter storage and the rebound of the futures market have driven the release of speculative demand, and many coking enterprises have initiated price increases. There is a structural surplus in supply and demand, but the degree is limited, and macro - sentiment is the core driver [30]. - Ferroalloys: Ferrosilicon has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of ferromanganese has decreased month - on - month, but the inventory base is still relatively large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is high, but the cost side provides support. In the short term, after the correction, ferroalloys are expected to show a bottom - oscillating trend [46]. - Soda Ash: The previous increase in commodity sentiment has driven up low - valued varieties, and the futures market has risen, with mid - stream replenishment of soda ash. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, with the heavy - soda balance remaining in surplus. In November, the soda ash export was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [60]. - Glass: Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory of the glass mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure as the terminal has entered the off - season [82]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had slight fluctuations. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [4][8][10]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 830 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan from the previous day. The basis also changed, with the 01 basis at - 35 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of January 9, 2026, the average daily iron water output was 2295,000 tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 162.7526 million tons, up 3.0437 million tons week - on - week [25]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 167 yuan, up 57 yuan from the previous day. The coking profit on the futures market was - 42 yuan, up 36.912 yuan from the previous day [31][33]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties had different changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1500 yuan/ton, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1069 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan week - on - week [35]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 13, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 12 yuan, up 16 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 138 yuan, up 5536 yuan from the previous day [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 184 yuan, up 64 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.18%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 61 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day [61]. - **Fundamentals**: New production capacity is gradually releasing output, and the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, and the export volume in November was close to 190,000 tons [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the glass 05 contract closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 4.11%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day [83]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed certain fluctuations from January 2 to January 8, 2026 [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The steel market shows that the spot price of steel has increased, and the cost and profit situation is mixed. The fundamental apparent demand has decreased seasonally, mainly due to the decline in the apparent demand for rebar. Inventory is about to enter the off - season inventory accumulation trend. The price is expected to maintain an interval shock in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and that for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a high - level shock in the main contract. The supply side's global shipment volume has declined, and the demand side's molten iron continues to resume production. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a short - term wide - range shock, and the strategy is interval operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke futures continue to rise, and the market is weakly stable. The supply side's production has increased, and the demand side's molten iron production has recovered. The inventory has increased slightly in the middle position. The strategy is to go long on the dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. The coking coal futures also continue to rise, with the supply side's production increasing slightly and the demand side's demand for replenishment warming up. The inventory has also increased slightly in the middle position, and the strategy is the same as that for coke [6]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The silicon iron main contract has a small increase, with production basically flat and at a low level in the same period of history. The demand has support, and the inventory has decreased. The cost has certain support, and it can be tried to go long on the dips, with a support level of about 5500. The silicon manganese main contract has a small increase, with supply at a low - to - medium level in the same period of history. The manganese ore price provides support, and it is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it can be tried to go long on the dips, with a support level of about 5800 [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Spread**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions have increased or remained unchanged, and the futures prices have small fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China is 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price has decreased by 10 yuan to 2970 yuan, and the profits of different regions and varieties of steel are different. For example, the profit of rebar in East China is - 20 yuan, down 40 yuan [1]. - **Output**: The daily average molten iron output is 229.0 tons, up 0.7% from the previous day. The output of five major steel products is 818.6 tons, up 0.4%. The output of rebar is 191.0 tons, up 1.5%, and the output of hot - rolled coils is 305.5 tons, up 0.3% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is 1253.9 tons, up 1.8%. The inventory of rebar is 438.1 tons, up 3.8%, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils is 368.1 tons, down 0.8% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume is 10.6 tons, up 18.5%. The apparent demand of five major steel products is 796.8 tons, down 5.3%. The apparent demand of rebar is 175.0 tons, down 12.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils is 308.3 tons, down 0.8% [1]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders have increased, and the basis of the 05 contract has decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder is 887.5 yuan/ton, up 0.7%. The 05 - contract basis of PB powder is 65.0 yuan/ton, down 2.1% [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume is 2920.4 tons, up 5.9%, and the global shipment volume is 3213.7 tons, down 1.0%. The national monthly import volume is 11054.0 tons, down 0.7% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 tons, up 0.9%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume is 323.3 tons, down 0.6%. The national monthly pig iron output is 6234.3 tons, down 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output is 6987.1 tons, down 3.0% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory is 16275.26 tons, up 1.9%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 8989.6 tons, up 0.5%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills is 19.0 days, down 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Spread**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures and spot have increased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke is 1770 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The 05 - contract price of coking coal is 1238 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, up 1.4%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.9 tons, up 0.1%. The raw coal output is 853.4 tons, down 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 tons, up 0.9%. The demand for coke is related to the production of steel mills [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 915.7 tons, up 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 86.1 tons, down 6.0%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 645.7 tons, up 0.3%. The inventory of coking coal has different changes in different sectors [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of the main contracts of silicon iron and silicon manganese have increased. For example, the closing price of the silicon iron main contract is 5930 yuan/ton, up 1.24%. The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions have decreased [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production costs of different regions of silicon iron and silicon manganese are different, and the production profits have decreased. For example, the production profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is - 192.0 yuan/ton, down 35.24% [7]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron is basically flat, and the production of silicon manganese has decreased slightly. The production of silicon iron products is 9.9 tons, up 0.2%, and the weekly output of silicon manganese is 19.1 tons, down 1.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese is related to the molten iron output and the production of steel products. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 tons, up 0.9% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron in 60 sample enterprises is 6.9 tons, up 7.1%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of silicon manganese is 38.3 tons, down 2.8% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: The latest prices of silicon iron in different regions and varieties are presented, including spot prices, warehouse receipt prices, and futures prices. For example, the cash price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block is 5320, with a weekly increase of 50, and the main contract price is 5698, with a daily increase of 66 and a weekly increase of 74 [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar price information for silicon manganese is provided, such as the factory - ex price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese is 5700, with a weekly increase of 50, and the main contract price is 5930, with a daily increase of 26 and a weekly increase of 56 [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China are shown, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production of silicon manganese in China and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are presented [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data include the estimated production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand data involve the estimated production of crude steel in China, the demand volume in China (Steel Union caliber), and the export volume [7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in different regions (China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi), the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions are provided [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The inventory data include the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China, and the average available days of inventory in China [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data include electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The profit data involve the profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data of silicon manganese in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, northern and southern regions) and the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract are presented [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series commodities still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel remains weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy window period. Future attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - With the end of the year - end shipping rush by mines, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The daily average pig iron output has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. However, the short - term high - volatility risk caused by sentiment leaders such as silver and lithium carbonate should be guarded against. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [20][23]. - The glass price has been boosted by the reduction in melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the market remains weak [26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.667%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1212 tons to 54421 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 11840 lots to 172.67 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3311 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.516%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 112237 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 10408 lots to 142.75 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series commodities are sensitive to news changes, and future attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil de - stocking, "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The iron ore main contract (I2605) closed at 822.50 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (8.00 yuan). The positions increased by 14950 lots to 65.48 million lots. The weighted positions were 98.37 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 829 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.09 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [5]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline, with a large drop in Brazilian shipments. The shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast furnace utilization rate increased, and the steel mill profitability decreased slightly. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, higher than the same period in previous years. The steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level, with a certain restocking demand. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) closed up 0.44% at 5930 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 1.17% at 5698 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 152 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still unfavorable, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 12, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed up 3.55% at 1238.0 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) closed up 1.26% at 1770.0 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Views - The recent strength of coking coal was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of capacity reduction in Yulin. The commodity bullish sentiment may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2605) closed at 8755 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (40 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 4994 lots to 374981 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 95 yuan/ton [19]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2605) closed at 49995 yuan/ton, down 2.54% (1305 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 6218 lots to 91068 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material was unchanged, with a basis of 5005 yuan/ton [21]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable. The supply improvement was limited, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - Polysilicon: The market was affected by anti - monopoly concerns and production reduction rumors. The price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22][23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.09% (1 yuan). The inventory decreased by 134.80 million boxes to 5551.8 million boxes. The positions of the top 20 long - holders decreased by 1305 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 7357 lots [25]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.90% (11 yuan). The inventory increased by 16.44 tons to 157.27 tons. The positions of the top 20 long - holders increased by 2976 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 17392 lots [27]. Strategy Views - Glass: The melting volume decreased, and the fuel cost increased, boosting the price. However, the high inventory restricted the upward space. Future attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual transactions [26]. - Soda ash: The supply was stable, and the new production capacity was put into operation. The demand from photovoltaic and float glass decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market remained weak [28].