黑色建材日报 2025-12-09 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3123 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 34 元/吨（-1.07%）。当日注册仓单 46276 吨, 环比增加 2135 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.7577 万手，环比增加 3036 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3180 元/吨, 环比减少 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3291 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 29 元/吨（-0.87%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 铁合金日报 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5444 | -30 | -22 | 414480 | 10957 | 262736 | 4446 | | SM主力合约 | 5736 | -22 | -2 | 265067 | 102578 | 271282 | 7356 | | | | | 现货 | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5230 | -20 | -20 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5530 | 0 | 0 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5200 ...

供需变化不大 成本扰动加剧 ——铁合金周报20251208 研 究 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0016415 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：产量止降回升。 | | | | | 需求：成材产量止增回落。 | | | | | 库存：厂库回升。 | | | | | 成本：成本小幅抬升。 | | 反内卷政 | | | | | 策、中美 | | 硅铁 | 基差：盘面回落基差转正。 | 低位震荡。 | 贸易谈判 | | | 总结：上周双硅盘面低位止跌反弹，11月宁夏青海结算电费稳中走高，企业年末 | | 等政策不 | | | 生产压力增大，市场预期转暖。基本面看，上周硅铁供增需降，前期检修厂家恢 | | 确定性 | | | 复生产，厂库止降回升。年末铁合金供需双弱，价格跟随黑色系弱势波动。但合 | | | | | 金产业已持续亏损数月，行情亦缺乏继续下 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-08 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.56%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.4541 万手，环比增加 62636 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3320 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持 ...

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5100 | 0 | 0 | 5400 | 主力合约 | 5474 | -72 | 84 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5170 | 0 | 50 | 5520 | 01合约 | 5402 | -66 | 26 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 0 | 0 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5436 | -70 | 90 | | | 陕西#72 | 5080 | 0 | 0 | 5380 | 09合约 | 5496 | -66 | 72 | | | 陕西#75 | 5600 | -50 | -100 | | 主力月基差 | -74 | 72 | -84 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 ...

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年12月7日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：合金原料端成本抬升，盘面走势坚挺 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | | | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 当期值 | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | 当期值 | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | 供 应 | 周产量（周） | | 10 . | | 88 | 1 . | 49% | -9 . | 56% | 18 . | 80 | -3 . | 50% | -3 . | 59% | | | 进口数量（10月） | | 1 . ...

（来源：银河投研黑色与有色） | () 据河湖总 | | --- | 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面, 供应端硅铁样本企业产量小幅反弹, 但11月电价陆续结算, 产区电价整体上涨, 加剧厂家亏损态势, 未来硅铁产量预计 童回下降趋势。需求方面,钢联数据显示,钢材表需开始季节性下降,使得钢材产量继续下降。从高炉检修计划推算,未来生铁产 量预计仍将震荡下行，原料需求仍有下行压力。成本端方面，近期产区铁合金电价稳中偏强，对硅铁有所支撑。总体来看，电价偏 强支撑短期反弹,但上方空间受需求压制。 锰硅方面,供应端猛硅延续了近期的收缩趋势,样本企业开工率与产量双双下降,本周预计产量仍将继续下降。需求方面,尽管近 期钢材利润有所修复，但螺纹钢表需环比走弱，产量也明显下行，对锰硅需求形成拖累。成本端方面，锰矿港口库存仍处于同期低 位,现货价格延续强势,成本端支撑明显。供需双弱背景下,成本端推动下短期反弹,但未来需求压力仍然存在,压制反弹高度。 【策略】 单边:成本推动短期反弹,但未来需求压力仍存,压制反弹高度,本周预计底部震荡; 套利:观望; 期权:逢高卖出虚值跨式组合。 | 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silicon manganese market is currently characterized by "cost-driven enhancement, increased supply-demand dynamics, and price fluctuations with a wait-and-see attitude" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Cost support for silicon manganese is continuously strengthening [1] - The improvement in the supply-demand structure of silicon manganese itself is limited [1] - As steel procurement gradually unfolds, market sentiment remains cautious [1] Group 2: Price Changes - The price range for silicon manganese 6517 increased from 5350-5500 to 5450-5550 in the northern market and from 5400-5550 to 5550-5650 in the southern market between November 28 and December 6 [2] - The alloy index for silicon manganese 6517 rose from 2555 to 5685 in Hebei region, cash inclusive [2] - Prices for Australian Mn42-43% and Mn45-46% increased from 40.5-43 to 41.5-44.5 at Tianjin Port [2] - Gabonese Mn45% prices rose from 42-43 to 43-44 at Tianjin Port [2] - South African semi-carbonate Mn36-37% prices remained stable at 34.5 at Tianjin Port [2]

继续关注12月密集宏观事件及其可 能引发的市场情绪拐点 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅月报 2025/12/05 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 06 图形走势 产业链示意图 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5720元/吨，环比+90元/吨，较上月初+20元/吨；期货主力（SM603）收盘报5796元/吨，环比+180元/吨，较上月 初-22元/吨；基差114元/吨，环比-90元/吨，基差率1.94%，处于历史统计值的相对中性水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用）维持低位，内蒙-565元/吨，环比+20元/吨，较上月初-147元/吨；宁夏-651元/吨，环比+30元 /吨，较上月初-147元/吨；广西-748元/吨，环比+127元/吨，较上月初-9元/吨。（利润为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 成本：测算内蒙锰硅即期成本（不含折旧等费用)在6095元/吨，环比+10元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs, with gradually improving profits. The market may pre - trade market expectations, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate moderately. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil between 3200 - 3500. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and steel mills have actively carried out maintenance and production cuts. After the reduction in steel production, steel inventory has been destocked, and the contradictions in the industrial chain have been alleviated. The price of coking coal has generally declined, benefiting steel mills, and the profits of steel mills have recently increased. Steel mills now have the space and motivation for new production increases. Steel currently has low raw material inventory and has the demand for winter storage replenishment. With the approaching of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, macro - expectations provide support, and the short - term price decline space is limited [21]. - For coking coal, the marginal change in supply is limited, but the profits of terminal steel mills are under pressure, and the production of hot metal has been continuously reduced. The supply and demand of coking coal have turned into a slight surplus. Coking enterprises are actively controlling the raw material procurement rhythm due to the expected price cuts, and the inventory pressure on upstream mines is becoming apparent. Short - term coal prices will still be under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal has decreased, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase. As the coking enterprises' production gradually resumes, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills. Considering that the futures market has already priced in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts in advance, the spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price - cut pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may decline due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the supply side maintains the trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Recently, the price of finished steel has been relatively strong, and the market may pre - hype market expectations, driving the rebound of ferroalloys. However, due to the weak fundamentals of ferroalloys themselves, they may return to their own fundamentals after the rebound [47]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is firm, the valuation has no upward elasticity without a trend - based production cut. The cold repair of glass has accelerated, and the expected rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The expectation of maintaining a high - level supply of soda ash in the medium and long term remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started inventory accumulation at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, and the balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In October, the export of soda ash exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - In December, the expectation of cold repair of glass production lines has resurfaced, and the implementation situation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key lies in the spot price in Hubei and the expectation of warehouse receipts. In reality, with the recent acceleration of cold repair and the expected further decline in daily melting volume, but the terminal has entered the off - season, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains at a high level, so there is still pressure on the spot price. The degree of inventory destocking in the mid - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3137, 3157, and 3192 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3320, and 3329 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed slight changes on December 5, 2025. For example, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3326 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [9][11]. - The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed compared with the previous day [4]. - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke remained unchanged at 4 and 2 respectively on December 5, 2025 [18]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil's futures prices, month - spreads, and basis were provided [5][6][7]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 785.5, 769, and 744 respectively, with daily changes of - 9, - 8, and - 9 respectively [22]. - The basis of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed certain changes [22]. - **Fundamentals** - On December 5, 2025, the daily average hot - metal production was 232.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.38 tons and a monthly decrease of 1.92 tons. The 45 - port desulfurization volume was 318.45 tons, a weekly decrease of 12.13 tons and a monthly decrease of 2.48 tons. Other indicators such as global shipping volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel - mill inventory also changed [25]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of iron ore's futures month - spreads and basis were provided [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - The month - spreads of coking coal and coke, such as 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05, showed different degrees of changes on December 5, 2025. The immediate coking profit, main mine - coke ratio, main rebar - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio also changed [35]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and different types showed certain fluctuations on December 5, 2025 [38]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of coking coal and coke's futures month - spreads, basis, and coking profit were provided [40][41][42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 24, with a daily increase of 72. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron in different regions remained relatively stable, and indicators such as the price of semi - coke small materials and the price of thermal coal also showed certain changes [48]. - **Silicon Manganese** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 122, with a daily increase of 38. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads changed. The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions increased slightly, and the prices of different ores and the inventory of silicon manganese also changed [49][50]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese's production costs, profits, month - spreads, and basis were provided [51][52][53]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1213, 1275, and 1137 respectively, with daily changes of - 19, - 19, and - 25 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash also remained unchanged in most regions [62]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of soda ash's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, production capacity utilization, and production were provided [63][64][65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1115, 1176, and 994 respectively, with daily changes of - 16, - 12, and - 16 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The basis of different contracts in Shahe and Hubei also changed [85]. - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed different degrees of fluctuations from November 28 to December 4, 2025 [86]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of glass's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, daily melting volume, and sales - to - production ratio were provided [87][88][89].