知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国铁合金行业市场供需态势及投资前景研判报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年5月中国铁合金出口数量为6万吨，同比下降34.8%，出口金额为1.2亿美 元，同比下降34.3%。 ...

硅铁价格继续提涨，铁合金协会响应国家反内卷政策，硅铁能否再次延续涨势？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has slightly improved, and the prices of finished products have risen significantly driven by news, with the profit on the futures market increasing simultaneously. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The market still needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price may be adjusted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations and the macro - situation during the important meeting in July [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals. A possible phased high may have emerged, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to enter a stage of high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [13]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has limited upside potential due to supply - demand contradictions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.048%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85034 tons, a net increase of 594 tons. The main contract position was 2.175237 million lots, an increase of 239356 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3503 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton (3.120%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57772 tons, a net decrease of 590 tons. The main contract position was 1.612699 million lots, an increase of 131532 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Market rumors of production restrictions and construction site closures in Beijing and surrounding areas have increased expectations of supply contraction, driving up futures prices. However, the recent price increase has weakened export competitiveness, and export volume has declined this week. Rebar demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil demand has declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The current inventory levels of both are at a five - year low. The overall fundamentals are still weak, and the market needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 798.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.53% (+ 12.00), and the position decreased by 7237 lots to 482200 lots. The weighted position was 987200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.74% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments have continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing and Brazilian shipments slightly decreasing. The daily average pig iron output was 242.23 tons, slightly down from the previous period. Both port inventory and steel mill import ore inventory have slightly increased. The high pig iron output and high port - clearance volume in the off - season support demand, and the supply pressure is not significant, resulting in limited inventory accumulation at ports. The short - term price may be adjusted [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 3.05% at 6212 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 4.62% at 6110 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up prices, but it has deviated from fundamentals. The significant decline in coking coal on the night of July 25 may indicate a phased high. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 4.88% at 9350 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 was 10150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, at par with the futures [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage in the short term. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient effective demand. Short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals, and enterprises are advised to hedge [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1275 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1230 yuan, unchanged. As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight boxes (- 4.69%) from the previous period and a decrease of 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days from the previous period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has declined due to weakened market sentiment. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate. In the long run, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [15]. - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price was 1300 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7836 million tons, a decrease of 81000 tons (- 4.34%) from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash was 695100 tons, a decrease of 47100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0885 million tons, a decrease of 33900 tons [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, due to supply - demand contradictions, the upside potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [16].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/7/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,212.00 | +184.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,110.00 | +270.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 655,401.00 | +24634.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 432,358.00 | +14863.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -116,519.00 | -3151.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -41,557.00 | +7244.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 74.00 | 0.00 | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 106.00 | -2.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 77,604.00 | -52.00↓ SF | 仓单（日，张） | 22,096. ...

价格 供应 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 CZCE：硅锰：主力合约：收盘价（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 CZCE：硅锰：基差（江苏）（钢联口径） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅锰主力月 内蒙基差（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 1 ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，弱势震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，弱势震荡 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2509 | 5840 | -326 | 1,218,323 | 196,312 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2510 | 5832 | -324 | 102,425 | 40,125 | | | 锰 硅2509 | 6028 | -386 | 1,247,227 | 353,406 | | | 锰 硅2510 | 6032 | -366 | 57,825 | 22,912 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 5-B:汇总价格:内 蒙 | | 5500 | - | 元/吨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-29锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2509： 2 1.基本面：近期焦煤、锰矿价格走高导致成本端支撑变强。双重因素支撑下，北方工厂报价坚挺，利润逐渐修复。南方工 厂对盘面带动现货情况仍持观望态度，成本倒挂情况减少。从宏观上看，"反内卷"政策实施初期，整个宏观情绪短期较 为积极，对现货价格上涨有利好支撑。预计本周硅锰现货价格小幅探长；中性。 2.基差：现货价5950元/吨，09合约基差-78元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20向上，09合约期价收于MA20上方。偏多。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 6.预期：预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has cooled significantly, and the prices of finished products have started to correct. The cost side has collapsed notably. Export volume has dropped significantly this week due to the recent rapid price increase [2]. - The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils are weak. Rebar has seen increased speculative demand and inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coils have experienced a slight decline in demand and inventory accumulation. Their inventories are at a five - year low. The market may return to real - world trading, and future market trends depend on policy signals, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [2]. - For iron ore, short - term prices may adjust. The market should focus on the inflection point of sentiment and pay attention to the policies of the important meeting in July [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term price fluctuations are large, and speculative positions are advised to wait and see. In the long - term, they face the risk of weakening demand. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin safety [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation phase, and it is recommended to wait and see. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient demand [11]. - For glass and soda ash, prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has fundamental supply - demand contradictions, and short - term waiting and long - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton (-3.21%) from the previous trading day. Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3587 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 62,771 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3397 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.13%). Registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 73,396 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2509) closed at 786.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.06% (-16.50), and positions decreased by 39,554 lots to 489,400 lots. The weighted position was 979,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.91% [4]. - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with an increase in Australian shipments led by FMG, a slight decline in Brazilian shipments, and non - mainstream shipments at a low level. Daily molten iron production was 242.23 tons, slightly down. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On July 28, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) closed down 6.02% at 6028 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed down 5.29% at 5840 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium to the futures price [7][8]. - In the short - term, the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations drove up prices, but after the sharp rise of coking coal, prices may have reached an inflection point. In the long - term, they face weakening demand [8][9]. Industrial Silicon - On July 28, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2509) closed down 8.33% at 8915 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased, with the 553 having a premium and the 421 having a discount to the futures price [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 9 yuan, and in Central China increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory of national float glass enterprises decreased by 4.69% month - on - month. The market may oscillate in the short - term and follow macro - sentiment in the long - term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 120 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.34%. Supply decreased due to increased maintenance, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term with fundamental contradictions in the long - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, industrial products led by polysilicon and coking coal hit the daily limit one after another. Positive policy expectations also drove ferrosilicon and silicomanganese to hit the daily limit on Friday. However, the fundamentals changed little, with weak demand in the off - season and continuous increase in supply as enterprise profits improved. Currently, the main changes are in coal raw materials and macro - policy expectations. Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are following macro - expectations rather than industrial logic. Without demand improvement, continuous premium on the futures market is not conducive to long - term price rebounds. The industry is still advised to sell for hedging in a timely manner, and pay attention to the important meetings and policies at the end of the month [4][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - The profits of manufacturers have recovered, and the increase in the operating rate has led to a larger increase in production. The weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 102,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%), and the output in June 2025 was 414,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.13%) [4][6] 3.1.2 Demand - The pig iron output is at a high level with a slight seasonal decline. The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 866,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.97%) [4][9] 3.1.3 Inventory - Manufacturers have reduced inventory for two consecutive weeks. The enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 2.22% and a year - on - year increase of 5.38%), and the inventory days of steel mills in July were 14.25 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 days and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 days) [4][11] 3.1.4 Cost - The raw materials remained stable during the week. The prices of electricity, semi - coke small materials, anodes, iron oxide scale, silica, etc. did not change, but the profits in some regions increased significantly [12][14] 3.1.5 Basis - The basis of the ferrosilicon main contract in Ningxia quickly turned negative after the futures market hit the daily limit on Friday. The basis of the 09 contract was - 316 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 388 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.6 Strategy Recommendation - It is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels for speculation. The lower support is around 5,600. Manufacturers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [4] 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - The operating rates in both the northern and southern production areas have increased, and the increase in production has expanded. The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 186,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5%), and the national silicomanganese output in June was 752,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.1%) [22][24] 3.2.2 Demand - The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the seasonal operating rate of steel mills has declined. The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 123,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 866,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.97%) [22][26] 3.2.3 Inventory - After production cuts, the inventory pressure of manufacturers has decreased. The manganese ore inventory increased last week, and oxidized ore has arrived at ports one after another. The enterprise sample inventory was 205,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.27%), and the inventory days of steel mills in July were 14.24 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 days and a year - on - year decrease of 1.19 days) [22][29] 3.2.4 Cost - The quotation of manganese ore is firm, and the price of chemical coke has continued to rise. The prices of some manganese ores and chemical coke have increased, driving up the production cost of silicomanganese [33][36] 3.2.5 Basis - The futures discount has slightly narrowed. The basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 540 yuan/ton [22][31] 3.2.6 Strategy Recommendation - It is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels for speculation. The lower support is around 6,000. Manufacturers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [22]