中辉期货铁合金周报 供需趋于宽松，上行略显乏力 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/10/24 铁合金观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周铁合金价格跟随黑色系商品小幅反弹，锰硅主力合约上涨0.94%，硅铁期货上涨2.06%， 整体表现强于锰硅。从供需层面来看，目前产区供应仍维持同期偏高水平，下游高铁水背景下仍对合金需求形 成一定支撑。目前主要矛盾仍来自于库存，截至10月24日，企业硅锰库存合计29.3万吨，硅铁库存合计 6.66万吨，均处近五年同期高位水平。随着下游需求季节性走弱，产业去库难度进一步增加。 • 铁合金成本端表现相对强势。 本周煤焦价格偏强运行，锰矿价格尚未出现明显回落，部分矿品小幅上涨。从发运数据来看，本期三大国发运 量合计84.92万吨，环比增加40.99万吨；到货量合计60.99万吨，环比增加20.61万吨。三大国发、到货 均有增加，加蓬矿发运恢复较为明显。疏港量环比下降但绝对值仍然偏高，港口库存维持低位运行。 【后市展望】：综合来看，目前合金价格处于"下有底，上有顶"的状态，预计 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually loosening macro - environment, but the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may be more cost - effective than shorting [10]. - For manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end; otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend with a low cost - performance for operation [10]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, easily following the commodity environment. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [13][16]. - For glass, it is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend. For soda ash, the price is expected to maintain a stable and weak trend [19][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.81%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1437 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 81220 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3250 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4799 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 182 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is crucial. Future development focuses on high - quality development of real estate and population. Fundamentally, rebar shows a neutral performance with both supply and demand increasing and inventory decreasing. Hot - rolled coils have a slight decline in production, rising demand, and marginal inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level [2]. - The steel mill profitability rate has declined significantly, and the molten iron output has dropped significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve [2]. Iron Ore **Market Information** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.77% (- 6.00), and the positions increased by 4501 lots to 56.56 million lots. The weighted positions were 95.82 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [4]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume has rebounded, with increases in Australia, Brazil, and FMG's shipments, and a slight increase in non - mainstream countries' shipments. The near - end arrival volume has decreased [5]. - Demand: The average daily molten iron output has dropped below 240,000 tons, affected by weak steel prices, low mill profitability, and environmental protection in Hebei. The contradiction between high molten iron and terminal demand has been realized, and the molten iron output has decreased [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continues to increase, and mill inventory has a slight increase. Fundamentally, the iron ore demand has weakened, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate, putting pressure on prices [5]. - Macroscopically, pay attention to the "15th Five - Year Plan" details and the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, which may improve market sentiment [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron **Market Information** - On October 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.79% at 5772 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 138 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.57% at 5542 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [7][8]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, important meetings have positive statements, but there is no super - expected content. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting. The black sector's fundamentals have concerns about high supply and low demand, and the mill profitability rate has dropped to 47.62%. There may be a "negative feedback" risk in the short term [9]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is more cost - effective to find callback positions to do rebounds. For manganese silicon, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon **Market Information** - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, down 1.55% (- 140). The weighted positions decreased by 11,008 lots to 427,574 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 380 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 52,305 yuan/ton, down 1.46% (- 775). The weighted positions decreased by 12,056 lots to 231,619 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re -投料 were unchanged, with a basis of 675 yuan/ton [15]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Industrial silicon: Supply pressure persists, with increasing weekly output. Demand support is weakening, and there is no obvious improvement in supply and demand. It is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, following the commodity environment [13][14]. - Polysilicon: Supply pressure may be marginally relieved as some capacities may be overhauled. The downstream start - up rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [16]. Glass and Soda Ash **Market Information** - Glass: The main contract closed at 1092 yuan/ton, down 1.44% (- 16). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 233,740,000 cases (+ 3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 9086 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 66,487 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1229 yuan/ton, down 0.49% (- 6). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 160,000 tons (+ 3.64%), with a decrease in heavy - soda inventory and an increase in light - soda inventory. The top 20 long - position holders increased 6467 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,937 lots [20]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, downstream procurement has slowed down, and supply has increased. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term. It is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend [19]. - Soda ash: The industry supply remains high, and demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the price is expected to be stable and weak [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, the coke and manganese ore markets have been stable, keeping the overall cost support steady. The silicon-manganese spot market is in a wait-and-see mode, observing the futures market. Alloy factories' production has little fluctuation, and spot prices are stable. HeSteel Group's final silicon-manganese price in October was 5,820 yuan/ton, a small increase from the second-round inquiry of 5,800 yuan/ton and a significant decrease from September's 6,000 yuan/ton. Most steel mills' tender prices revolve around 5,800 yuan, and the silicon-manganese market shows low enthusiasm for steel tender prices. Overall, the silicon-manganese market has been oscillating recently, with no major changes in the basic supply and demand. The impact of the macro level on the market needs further attention. It is predicted that the market will continue to oscillate in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly production capacity of Chinese silicon-manganese enterprises is presented [6][7] - **Annual Output**: Annual production data of silicon-manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and the whole of China are shown [8][9] - **Weekly, Monthly Output, and开工率**: Weekly and monthly production data of Chinese silicon-manganese and the weekly开工率 of Chinese silicon-manganese enterprises are provided [10][11] - **Regional Output**: Monthly production data of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and daily average production data in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are presented [12][13] Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: Monthly purchase price data of silicon-manganese by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron and Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. are shown [15][16] - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Weekly data on the daily average hot metal output and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises are presented [17][18] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Monthly import and export volume data of Chinese ferromanganese-silicon are presented [19][20] Manganese Silicon Inventory - Weekly inventory data of 63 sample Chinese silicon-manganese enterprises and monthly data on the average available days of silicon-manganese inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are presented [21][22] Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: Monthly import volume data of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon to China, from southern Africa to China, and from Australia to China are presented [23][24] - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: Weekly data on the port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the average available days of manganese ore inventory in China are presented [25][26] - **High-Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly data on the port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian high-grade manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port are presented [27][28] - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of South African semi-carbonate manganese ore, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese ore in Tianjin Port are presented [29] - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi are presented [30][31] Manganese Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of silicon-manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented [32][33]

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are expected to oscillate upwards due to the influence of the black sector sentiment and the rising cost center [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - This week, alloy prices were driven up by the sentiment of the black sector. The increase in raw coal prices led to a rise in semi - coke prices, further raising the cost center of silicon ferrosilicon. However, the fundamental contradictions continue to accumulate, and attention should be paid to whether the steel mill's production restrictions will trigger a negative feedback cycle for furnace materials [5]. - Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee had a general impact on commodity demand. Overseas, the US sent a conciliatory signal during the week, and a meeting is expected to be held next week [5]. - Microscopically, the iron - water production decreased slightly, providing weak support for raw material demand. The production restrictions of steel mills in Tangshan next week may reduce the demand for alloys [5]. 2. Futures Market - This week, the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract showed a strong - oscillating trend, closing at 5,542 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton from the previous week. The trading volume was 716,127 lots, and the open interest was 174,287 lots, a decrease of 29,225 lots from the previous week [8]. - The manganese silicon 2601 contract oscillated this week, closing at 5,772 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous week. The trading volume was 856,106 lots, and the open interest was 350,893 lots, a decrease of 39,064 lots from the previous week [8]. 3. Spot Market - This week, the spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon in major regions across the country increased slightly. The aggregated quotation of 75B silicon ferrosilicon in major production areas was 5,130 - 5,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 0 - 70 yuan/ton [13]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon manganese in major regions across the country was 5,500 - 5,880 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of 0 - 70 yuan/ton. The price of 6517 - type silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), that in Guangxi was 5,650 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week), and that in Ningxia was 5,580 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. 4. Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data Supply - Manganese silicon production decreased slightly this week. The weekly production was 207,410 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 0.7%. The weekly operating rate was 43.04%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points from the previous week [21]. Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual iron - water production decreased. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average iron - water production was 239,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous week. The production of rebar increased by 59,100 tons this week. With production restrictions planned for some steel mills next week, the overall demand for manganese silicon is expected to weaken [26]. Inventory - As of October 24, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 44,876, a decrease of 3,064 from the previous week, equivalent to a inventory of 224,380 tons, with a warehouse - receipt destocking of 15,320 tons [31]. - In October, the average available days of silicon manganese inventory in steel mills was 15.7 days (- 0.23 days). In the northern region, it was 14.24 days (+ 0.17 days), in the eastern region, it was 17.05 days (- 0.43 days), and in the southern region, it was 17 days (- 0.91 days) [32]. - As of October 24, the inventory of 63 domestic silicon manganese sample enterprises was 293,000 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons from the previous week [36]. Raw Materials - The global manganese ore shipment volume increased slightly, but the shipments from South Africa and Gabon decreased. The manganese ore supply and demand are currently relatively balanced, with high - level port clearance [49][50]. - Overseas manganese ore producers' quotes are firm, and port quotes are divergent. The cost of South African semi - carbonate ore is inverted [52]. 5. Silicon Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data Supply - Silicon ferrosilicon supply increased slightly this week. The weekly production was 114,100 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 35.56%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week [58]. Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual iron - water production decreased. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average iron - water production was 239,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous week [72]. - The non - steel demand for silicon ferrosilicon showed positive trends. The stainless - steel production in September was 3.0661 million tons, an increase of 163,300 tons from the previous month and 7.65% higher year - on - year. The planned stainless - steel production in October is expected to be similar to that in September [72]. - The total production of magnesium metal in September was 76,800 tons, an increase of 10.5% from the previous month and 2.4% higher year - on - year [72]. - The silicon ferrosilicon export volume in September was 40,100 tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month [72]. Inventory - As of October 24, the inventory of 60 domestic silicon ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 66,560 tons, a decrease of 2,520 tons from the previous week [81]. - As of October 24, the number of silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 11,163, a decrease of 1,042 from the previous week, equivalent to a inventory of 55,815 tons, with a warehouse - receipt destocking of 5,210 tons [81]. - In October, the average available days of silicon ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 15.67 days (+ 0.15 days). In the northern region, it was 14 days (+ 0.34 days), in the eastern region, it was 16.33 days (- 0.77 days), and in the southern region, it was 18.82 days (+ 1.37 days) [81]. Cost - The price of semi - coke, a raw material for silicon ferrosilicon, increased, raising the production cost center of silicon ferrosilicon, and the profit increased with the market [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a non - pessimistic view on the future of the black sector. Instead of short - selling, it suggests that finding a retracement point to go long may be more cost - effective. However, in the short term, attention should be paid to the potential "negative feedback" risk caused by high supply, low demand, and the decline in steel mill profitability [15][97]. - The outcomes of the Sino - US bilateral trade consultations and the meeting between the two heads of state at the APEC summit could impact the sentiment in the commodity market. Positive signals may improve market sentiment [15][97]. - Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trends of the black sector, with their fundamentals lacking significant contradictions and drivers [15][97]. 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5720 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM601) was 5772 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 2.35%, at a relatively neutral historical level [14][20]. - Manganese silicon production profits remained low, with losses in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi. The production cost increased slightly in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, and remained stable in Guangxi [14][25][30]. - Manganese silicon weekly output decreased slightly, while the weekly output of rebar increased. The daily average hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The visible inventory of manganese silicon increased, and the average available days of steel mill inventory decreased slightly [14]. - The market is advised to focus on the Sino - US bilateral trade consultations and the meeting between the two heads of state at the APEC summit. There is a short - term "negative feedback" risk in the black sector due to high supply and low demand [15]. 3.1.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5720 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM601) was 5772 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 2.35%, at a relatively neutral historical level [20]. 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - Manganese silicon's estimated immediate profit (excluding depreciation) remained low. Inner Mongolia had a profit of - 317 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia had a profit of - 415 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton week - on - week; and Guangxi had a profit of - 700 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [25]. - The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was 5995 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Guangxi, it was 6350 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [30]. - In August, the manganese ore import volume was 308.49 tons, down 40.11 tons month - on - month and up 35.71 tons year - on - year. As of October 17, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 436.4 tons, down 9.3 tons week - on - week [33][36]. 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 20.74 tons, down 0.14 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 0.32%. In September 2025, the monthly output was 89.84 tons, down 1.08 tons month - on - month [44]. - HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in October 2025 was 16,500 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month and up 4500 tons year - on - year. The tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month [57]. - The weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.27 tons, up 0.16 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 207.07 tons, up 5.91 tons week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.75% [60][63]. 3.1.5. Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, the visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.31 tons, up 2.44 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period. The average available days of steel mill inventory in October was 15.7 days, down 0.23 days month - on - month [71][77]. - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 29.3 tons, up 3.05 tons week - on - week [74]. 3.1.6. Graphical Trends - Last week, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated slightly upward, with a weekly increase of 56 yuan/ton or 0.98%. On the daily chart, it was still within the trading range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton and approached the downward trend line since July. Attention should be paid to the support near 5600 yuan/ton and the direction at the trend line [80]. Ferrosilicon Report 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - The daily average hot metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.75%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.80% [95]. - From January to September 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 31.1 tons, down 1.66 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 5.07% [95]. - The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 13.04 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The average available days of steel mill inventory in October was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month [95]. - The basis of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 108 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 1.91%, at a neutral historical level [96]. - Ferrosilicon production profits remained in the red. The estimated production cost in the main producing areas was relatively stable [96]. - HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in October 2025 was 2956 tons, down 195 tons month - on - month and up 920 tons year - on - year. The tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton month - on - month [97]. - The ferrosilicon market is likely to follow the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [97]. 3.2.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SF601) was 5542 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 108 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 1.91%, at a neutral historical level [102]. 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - As of October 24, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 586 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 413 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Qinghai, it was - 400 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week [107]. - The price of silica in the northwest region remained stable, while the price of semi - coke small pieces increased by 50 yuan/ton. The estimated production cost in the main producing areas was relatively stable [110][113]. 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 11.4 tons, up 0.13 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.47%. In September 2025, the monthly output was 48.82 tons, down 0.51 tons month - on - month [118]. - HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in October 2025 was 2956 tons, down 195 tons month - on - month and up 920 tons year - on - year. The tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton month - on - month [124]. - The daily average hot metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.75%. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7350 tons, down 390 tons month - on - month and 360 tons year - on - year [127]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.80%. China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 31.1 tons, down 1.66 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 5.07% [95]. 3.2.5. Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, the visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 13.04 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The average available days of steel mill inventory in October was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month [142][145]. 3.2.6. Graphical Trends - Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to rise slightly, with a weekly increase of 112 yuan/ton or 2.06%. On the daily chart, it was still within the trading range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton and faced short - term pressure after touching the downward trend line since July. Attention should be paid to the support near 5400 yuan/ton and the direction at the trend line [150].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to experience narrow - range consolidation. Although the supply - demand data has improved with a slight increase in production, a decline in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand, the market has a generally pessimistic outlook on future demand, and there is still significant pressure on the supply - demand side. However, the current price valuation is not high, and the strong performance of coking coal and coke prices strengthens the cost support for steel [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. With a slight increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil and other countries on the supply side, and a decrease in molten iron production on the demand side, along with a continuous decline in steel mill profitability and pressure on steel inventories, the steel demand remains weak, and the coking coal and coke prices are strong [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Due to stricter safety inspections at coal mines, limited production release, and smooth shipments, the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although coking enterprises have limited production, they still have a strong rigid demand for high - quality coking coal [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the production cost of coke and deteriorated the profit margin of coking enterprises, leading to an expected increase in production restrictions. Meanwhile, steel mills' demand for coke has increased due to high - level blast furnace operation and a decline in inventory [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon price is expected to be firm and oscillate slightly stronger. After the end of an important meeting, market sentiment has been boosted, and the price center of manganese silicon has moved up slightly. Although the fundamentals have limited driving forces, with an increase in production and a decline in demand and an increase in inventory, the market sentiment has a positive impact [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron price is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Market sentiment has been boosted, and although the production has slightly decreased and the demand is still to be stimulated, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years, the fundamentals provide some support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price | Price Change | Price Change Rate | Position Change | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel (Rebar) | 3071 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.1% | - 0.82 million hands | Production increased by 5.91 million tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 18.93 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 0.01 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 6.26 million tons | Narrow - range consolidation [1] | | Iron Ore | 777 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.4% | +0.3 million hands | Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased slightly, molten iron production decreased by 1.05 million tons, and port inventory increased by 147.62 million tons | Range - bound oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | 1258.5 yuan/ton | +49 yuan/ton | +4.05% | +86290 hands | Stricter safety inspections, limited production release, and a significant decrease in coal mine inventory | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Coke | 1768 yuan/ton | +58.5 yuan/ton | +3.42% | +1289 hands | Rising coking coal prices, increased production cost, and expected increase in production restrictions for coking enterprises; increased demand from steel mills | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Manganese Silicon | 5818 yuan/ton | +0.41% | - | - 4420 hands | Production stopped falling and rebounded, demand decreased, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [1][3] | | Silicon Iron | 5574 yuan/ton | +0.94% | - | - 5440 hands | Production decreased by 2.6% week - on - week, demand was limited, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread and Basis**: The data shows the latest values and week - on - week changes of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) and basis for various varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The data presents the latest values and week - on - week changes of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) for various varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][18][19][21][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the contract spreads of different periods (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][38][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [41][42][43][45]. - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Black Research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors. His futures trading qualification numbers are F3046854 and Z0016941 [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures. She has rich experience in the field of black commodities and has won many industry awards. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F0306200 and Z0000082 [52]. - Liu Xi: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F03087689 and Z0019538 [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. He has experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, passed the CFA Level II exam, and is good at investment trading strategies and spot - futures analysis. His futures trading qualification number is F03132960 [53].

低估值带动反弹 但供需压力仍存 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 227/82/4 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 期权：逢高卖出虚值跨式组合。 2 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端表现分化，硅铁产量小幅回升，锰硅产量略有回落，尽管近期合金企业利润不佳，但产量仍未出现趋势性下行， 产量绝对值量仍维持高位。需求方面，247家钢厂铁水产量继续下降，且降幅有所加大。同时，尽管上周钢联样本钢材库存小幅下 降，但10月整体去库情况并不理想，导致钢厂利润仍在恶化，原料 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's ferroalloy exports in August 2025, with a volume of 60,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% and an export value of 13.9 million USD, down 22.3% year-on-year [1] Industry Overview - The report covers the supply and demand dynamics of the ferroalloy industry in China from 2026 to 2032, indicating a comprehensive analysis of market trends and investment prospects [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Report date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan [2] - Qualification number: F3075616 [2] - Trading consultation certificate number: Z0018025 [2] Group 2: Weekly Production Data Silicon Manganese - National weekly production: 20.74 million tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.55% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 9.90 million tons, a decrease of 1,260 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.00% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 4.63 million tons, an increase of 1,225 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07% [3] - Guangxi weekly production: 0.98 million tons, a decrease of 665 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.94% [3] - Guizhou weekly production: 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 18.61% [3] - Yunnan weekly production: 1.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.94% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 490 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.00% [3] Silicon Iron - National weekly production: 11.41 million tons, an increase of 1,260 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.41% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 3.61 million tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.44% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 2.98 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.87% [3] - Shaanxi weekly production: 1.73 million tons, an increase of 560 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.28% [3] - Qinghai weekly production: 1.62 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.32% [3] - Gansu weekly production: 1.36 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.31% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 0.01 million tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.01% [3] Group 3: Data Source - Data source: Mysteel; organized by Zhongtai Futures [6]