Core Viewpoints - The latest strategies from top brokerages indicate a bullish sentiment in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors like technology, traditional manufacturing, and resource pricing power [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is experiencing a "rally" phase, with significant trading volume and a risk appetite resurgence, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points [4][6] - The market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory until the Spring Festival, driven by favorable macroeconomic indicators and increased participation from institutional investors [3][4][11][13] Group 2: Sector Focus - Brokerages recommend focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robotics, which are anticipated to benefit from policy support and market trends [3][7][12][14] - Traditional manufacturing and resource sectors are highlighted for their potential in pricing power enhancement, with suggestions to increase allocations in non-bank financials [2][4][8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies emphasize a balanced approach, suggesting a mix of growth-oriented and cyclical sectors, with a focus on themes like "anti-involution" and price recovery in industries such as chemicals and metals [7][8][14] - The importance of monitoring market sentiment and performance metrics is stressed, particularly as the market enters a period of earnings announcements and potential volatility [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are strengthening, and the expansion trend is expected to continue. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April, leading to a temporary stabilization in the financial attributes. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff case may significantly increase price volatility. With supportive policies both domestically and internationally, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged, and the expansion trend is likely to persist [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Strengthening Liquidity Expectations, Continued Expansion Trend - The U.S. unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with non-farm employment increasing by 50,000, below the market expectation of 73,000. This indicates a new equilibrium in the labor market, with both supply and demand growth slowing [12]. 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 8.56% in the week ending January 9, ranking fourth among all industries [19]. The sector's performance outpaced major indices, with small metals showing the highest gains [20]. 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PPI, as well as China's manufacturing PMI, which stood at 50.1% in December, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [30][34]. 4. Precious Metals: Increased Volatility Expected Ahead of Tariff Ruling - Gold prices increased, with SHFE gold rising by 2.96% to 1,006.48 CNY per gram and COMEX gold up by 3.59% to 4,473.00 USD per ounce. Silver also saw significant gains, with SHFE silver up by 9.70% to 18,731.00 CNY per kilogram [13][14][27]. 5. Copper: Continued Weakness, Increased Volatility from Tariff Disruptions - Copper prices rose, with SHFE copper increasing by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY per ton and LME copper up by 4.24% to 12,998 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues to affect the market, with copper concentrate treatment charges declining [16][26]. 6. Aluminum: Price Improvement, Export Competition May Increase Mismatch - Aluminum prices increased, with SHFE aluminum rising by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY per ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic aluminum inventory and stable production capacity [15][78].

中信建投研报认为，近期美元指数有所反弹，但人民币汇率仍然坚挺，整体环境对A股仍然较为有利。 通胀水平温和回升，经济复苏的内生动能逐渐修复，利好A股慢牛行情持续性。从市场情绪看，我们认 为跨年行情有望继续演绎，但短期技术性回调风险上升。当前市场行业表现分化，有充分预期的板块横 盘等待兑现验证，与此同时概念主题表现活跃，前期落后板块补涨。整体而言，我们继续看好跨年行 情，行业主要围绕未来产业热点、AI和半导体、资源品涨价链展开。行业重点关注：半导体、AI、有 色金属、化工、机械、传媒、计算机、医药；主题重点关注：脑机接口、商业航天、可控核聚变、人形 机器人、量子科技等。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates in January, which is expected to impact liquidity and inflation expectations in the U.S. economy [2][54] - The current short-term liquidity in the U.S. is tightening, with repo rates exceeding the benchmark rate, prompting the Fed to expand its balance sheet and lower rates [3][11] - Forward inflation expectations in the U.S. are unlikely to decrease, and if the Fed persists in lowering rates while inflation expectations remain high, it will weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [4][23] Group 2 - Gold is currently viewed as fairly valued at around $4,500 per ounce, and in the new credit system, gold serves as the "anchor" for all valuations [5][31] - The price target for gold is suggested to be high, with the analogy that "the deeper the cup, the higher the target," indicating that silver has not yet reached its peak [6][30] - The global liquidity conditions are continuously improving, with liquidity indicators leading fundamental changes by 6-12 months, suggesting that asset classes anchored by gold will benefit [7][40] Group 3 - The year 2026 is anticipated to be at the peak of a major cycle for stock market returns, with synchronized easing from global central banks likely to create a significant bubble, presenting an opportunity for investors [8][55] - In a recent interview, it was noted that the market sentiment is improving, with strong performances in technology and industrial metal sectors, indicating signs of cyclical recovery [49][100] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate significantly, with the potential for further gains as the currency has been undervalued in recent years [108][111]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant volatility in the global nickel market, driven by policy changes in Indonesia, which has led to sharp price fluctuations and concerns over supply shortages [1][2]. - Indonesia's nickel production reduction plan, cutting quotas from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, has raised fears of supply constraints, potentially shifting the global nickel market from surplus to a tight balance or even structural shortage [2][5]. - Nickel prices have seen a dramatic increase, with the Shanghai nickel futures rising nearly 25% over 17 trading days, but the market fundamentals remain weak, as LME nickel inventories are above 250,000 tons and domestic refined nickel stocks have increased by 35% year-on-year [2][5]. Group 2 - Nickel-related resource companies in the A-share market have benefited from the price surge, with significant stock price increases observed since the New Year, including China First Heavy Industries and Huayou Cobalt, which saw gains of 36.96% and 11.27% respectively [4]. - Despite the recent price rebound, the overall nickel market is still characterized by oversupply, and analysts suggest that the recent price increases are more reflective of macro trading logic rather than actual supply-demand improvements [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's nickel mining policies continues to pose risks, with expectations of further price corrections in the medium to long term due to persistent oversupply pressures in the nickel industry [5].

从板块来看，看好军工板块的投资者比例大幅提高，环比提升6个百分点。 对下周上证指数怎么看? 4% ■ 震荡走高,突破4200点 43% ■ 晨荡走低,跌破4000点 ■ 横盘震荡 46% ■ 无法判断 7% A股持续震荡走高，投资者信心回升，但目前上证指数处于近十年高位，同样有部分投资者对市场上涨 势头有所迟疑。数据显示，43%的投资者认为下周市场将"震荡走高，突破4200点"；46%的投资者认为 市场将"横盘震荡"；仅有7%的投资者明确看空市场，表示下周市场将"震荡走低，跌破4000点"。 | 军工板块看好比例大幅提高 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 12月27日调管 | | 1月3日调查 | 1月10日调查 | | 大金融 | 6% | 5% | 4% | | 大消费 | 8% | 6% | 4% | | 医药 | 4% | 3% | 5% | | 科技 | 47% | 58% | 56% | | 年1 | 7% | 7% | 13% | | 有色金属 | 16% | 11% | 9% | | 新能源 | 8% | 4% | 2% | | 次新股 | - | ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 智通财经1月11日讯（编辑 若宇）十大券商最新策略观点新鲜出炉，具体如下： | 券商 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 中信证券 | 继续聚焦资源和传统制造定价权的提升 | | 年西证券 | 把握做多窗口 牛市行情或将继续推进 | | 信达证券 | 市场成交放量风险偏好回升 交易性资金有望回暖接力 | | 中泰证券 | 开年市场新高后或如何演绎? | | 来等班券 | 春季行情短期进入主升阶段 继续聚焦科技成长和周期成长主线 | | 方正证券 | 春季攻势已经展开 配置上建议关注三条主线 | | 浙商证券 | 市场选择直接上攻 均衡配行业、持仓迎春节 | | 光大证券 | 政策红利释放 A股市场热度短期有望延续 | | 东吴证券 | 建议以景气成长为主 | | 中国银河 | A股市场开启"躁动"行情 重点布局结构性投资机会 | 中信证券：继续聚焦资源和传统制造定价权的提升 从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、小票轮动 的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market achieved a "good start" in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording 16 consecutive days of gains, setting a historical record for consecutive positive trading days. Major broad-based indices experienced widespread increases, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite, with growth and small-cap styles prevailing [1][21]. - Weekly trading volume in the A-share market surpassed 30 trillion yuan, with financing transactions becoming active and the financing balance exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, marking a historical high. Key sectors such as commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, brain-computer interfaces, and nuclear fusion continued to attract attention, while related commodities also performed well [1][21]. Market Outlook - The current market conditions suggest a continuation of the bull market, with expectations for a spring trading window. Positive economic indicators, such as better-than-expected PMI and inflation data for December, provide fundamental support for the spring market. Additionally, there is a notable increase in the willingness of external funds to enter the market, with expectations for further inflows from insurance and resident funds [1][21][23]. Key Focus Areas - The increase in market volume has facilitated the index's breakthrough of previous highs. Since 2025, the A-share market has seen three instances of trading volume exceeding 30 trillion yuan, with the latest occurring on January 9, 2026. Following these volume spikes, the indices have consistently confirmed higher trading ranges, indicating a sustained upward trend [2][21]. - The influx of financing and foreign capital reflects a significant increase in market risk appetite. The financing balance reached a historical high of 2.6 trillion yuan, with financing transactions accounting for over 11.5% of total A-share trading volume, the highest level since November 2025. Notably, foreign capital transactions also surged, with northbound capital reaching 369.6 billion yuan, the highest since October 2025 [3][22]. Economic and Policy Environment - The economic fundamentals remain supportive, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs returning to expansion territory in December. The CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, both better than market expectations. The macroeconomic policy environment is favorable, with coordinated fiscal and monetary policies being implemented to support market liquidity [4][23]. - The industry configuration suggests a focus on technology themes such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, robotics, and domestic substitution, as well as sectors benefiting from price increases, such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals [4][23].

2026年01月11日 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 11 日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策 | 2 | | 工业硅：关注下游减产情况 | 12 | | 多晶硅：情绪端或有提振 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：抢出口预期支撑锂价，电芯提涨或成终端隐忧 | 21 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对镍与不锈钢的关注度提高，本质在于消息面的变化，主要包括：印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钴，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采镍矿罚款，具体来看： 1）配额事件：印尼政府敦促企业重新提交 2026 年 RKAB 预算，APNI 协会表示目标或削减至 2.5 亿吨 镍矿配额，1 月 8 日印尼能矿部长表示根据行业需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Microscopically, there is a long - term bullish view on copper, with a strong price trend. However, increased macro - level disturbance factors lead to greater price fluctuations. The macro situation includes the US December non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations, the unemployment rate increase hitting a new low since 2020, and the market expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero and the first cut expected in June. The US Supreme Court has not announced a verdict on Trump's tariffs, and the next ruling will be on January 14. China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, and PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months [7]. - Fundamentally, the short - term domestic spot driving logic has temporarily weakened, while the overseas spot logic remains strong. The global copper inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in social inventory. As of January 8, 2026, the global total inventory was 950,300 tons, an increase of 44,900 tons from January 1. The domestic social inventory increased by 39,400 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 15,300 tons. The domestic spot discount has narrowed to 45 yuan/ton, indicating that the decline in price has led to a rebound in downstream demand. The LME 0 - 3 premium has expanded from $38.60/ton on January 2 to $41.94/ton on January 9 [7]. - In the long term, the fundamentals still support the copper price. The port inventory of copper concentrates has continued to decline, dropping rapidly from 680,000 tons on December 26 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The long - term TC for imported copper concentrates in China in 2026 is $0/ton, significantly lower than the 2025 level, which indicates a tight supply of copper concentrates. China is preventing blind investment and disorderly construction in smelters and encouraging large backbone enterprises to implement mergers and reorganizations to improve industrial competitiveness, which may also lead to structural changes in the smelting industry. From the consumption side, the long - term consumption recovery expectation remains strong, and the consumption logic of emerging industries such as AI computing centers is constantly strengthening. Giants like OpenAI and Microsoft are increasing infrastructure investment, and many places in the US are promoting gigawatt - scale cluster projects, with single - project investment exceeding $10 billion, focusing on the deployment of high - density liquid - cooling technology. At the same time, local US governments are attracting investment through incentive policies such as tax exemptions and fee - for - tax deductions. However, policy uncertainties brought about by the mid - term elections and the Fed's leadership change may affect the industry's investment rhythm and implementation process. In addition, new energy vehicles and global power grid upgrades remain the core driving forces, and power grid renovations in Europe and the US and the expansion of the manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia continue to contribute to the increase [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term rigid replenishment of downstream enterprises provides a bottom support for prices. Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged. Currently, the price fluctuates greatly, so it is particularly important to find a good safety margin for buying. In terms of spread trading, the current profit margin for spot exports has narrowed, so be cautious with internal - external reverse arbitrage [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The volatility of LME, SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 20%, and the SHFE copper volatility has reached about 25%, showing a significant rebound from the previous week [13]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened marginally. The spread between SHFE 01 - 02 contracts was - 200 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, lower than 560 yuan/ton on December 31. The LME copper spot premium has expanded, with the LME 0 - 3 premium reaching $41.94/ton on January 9, higher than $38.60/ton on January 2. The near - end C structure of COMEX copper has expanded, with the price spread between the February and March 2026 contracts being - $68.34/ton on January 9, significantly wider than - $55.12/ton on January 2 [20]. - **Position**: The positions of SHFE and INE copper have increased, with the SHFE copper position increasing by 63,900 lots to 681,600 lots, while the LME copper position has decreased [21]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, from 77,500 lots on December 24 to 72,600 lots on January 2. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial enterprises has decreased from 59,800 lots on December 30 to 57,900 lots on January 6 [27]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot discount has narrowed, from a discount of 190 yuan/ton on December 31 to a discount of 45 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026. The Yangshan Port copper premium has declined, from $51/ton on December 31 to $42/ton on January 9. The US copper premium has remained at a high level. The Rotterdam copper premium has increased from $185/ton on January 2 to $200/ton on January 9, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained at $187.5/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has increased, from 905,500 tons on January 1, 2026, to 950,300 tons on January 8. The domestic social inventory has increased, from 238,900 tons on January 1 to 273,800 tons on January 8, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The bonded area inventory has increased from 75,500 tons on December 31 to 78,800 tons on January 8. The COMEX inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period of history, rising from 499,800 short tons on January 2 to 518,000 short tons on January 9. The LME copper inventory has decreased, from 155,300 tons on January 2 to 139,000 tons on January 9 [38]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 02 contract has declined and is at a low level in the same period of history. The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has fluctuated, indicating that the overseas spot lacks a driving logic [39]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrates**: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year. According to customs data, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November 2025 were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased, from 496,000 tons on January 2 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The processing fee for copper concentrates has remained weak, and the smelting loss has decreased from 1,988 yuan/ton on December 31 to 2,016 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [45]. - **Recycled Copper**: The import of recycled copper has increased. In November, the import of recycled copper was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%. In September, the domestic production of recycled copper was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The price difference between refined and recycled copper has expanded and is higher than the break - even point, and the import loss of recycled copper has turned into a profit [46][51]. - **Blister Copper**: The import of blister copper has increased month - on - month. In November, the import was 58,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. In December, the processing fee for blister copper has recovered, with the southern processing fee at 1,500 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at $95/ton [55]. - **Refined Copper**: The domestic production of refined copper has increased year - on - year. In November, the production was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. It is expected that the production in December will be 1.0955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. The import volume of refined copper has decreased. In November, the import was 271,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.67%. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in November were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87%. The loss of copper spot imports has narrowed, from a loss of 1,083.72 yuan/ton on December 31 to a loss of 981.04 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [58]. 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rates of copper tube and copper plate and strip foil enterprises have rebounded but are at a low level in the same period of history. In the week of January 8, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has declined marginally [62]. - **Profit**: The processing fee for copper rods has rebounded but is at a low level in the same period of history. As of January 9, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 410 yuan/ton, higher than 240 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fee for copper tubes has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period of history. On January 9, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,368 yuan/ton, higher than 5,343 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fees for copper plates and strips and lithium - ion copper foils have remained stable and are at a low level [67]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a moderately low level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has continued to decline [68]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: In November, the finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased [71]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual consumption of copper has performed well. From January to November, the cumulative consumption was 14.5615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. From January to November, the apparent consumption was 14.6431 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.44%. Industries such as power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy are important supports for copper consumption. Among them, the growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down. From January to November, the cumulative power grid investment was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.90% [78]. - **Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production**: In November, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.577 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.70%. In November, the domestic new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 20.05% [79].