Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in electronic prices is driven by a structural transformation due to explosive growth in the AI industry and rising upstream raw material costs, rather than simple cyclical fluctuations. The demand for AI is expected to continue growing rapidly, and under the backdrop of a weak dollar and resource nationalism, metal prices are likely to rise further, extending the electronic price surge into the end of this year and possibly early next year [1] Information Technology - By Q2 2025, memory prices are expected to reach a cyclical turning point due to production cuts by manufacturers and improved end-user demand. As major manufacturers shift capacity towards high-margin products like HBM, the supply of consumer-grade memory chips will continue to shrink, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap and rising prices. By the end of 2025, the rising costs of industrial metals and other raw materials will cause price increases to spread from memory chips to passive components, testing, packaging, and other segments of the entire industry chain, thereby increasing cost pressures on consumer electronics [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all risen this week, along with increases in DRAM and NAND memory prices. The three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor manufacturing equipment shipments from Japan has narrowed, while the three-month rolling year-on-year decline in optical cable production has also narrowed. Panel prices have increased, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of NB LCD shipments has expanded [2] Midstream Manufacturing - This week, prices for some positive electrode materials, lithium raw materials, and cobalt products have increased, while the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and DMC have decreased. The photovoltaic price index has risen, with prices for silicon materials increasing, while prices for silicon wafers and components have remained stable. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline in the production of packaging equipment has narrowed, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of metal forming machine tool production has also narrowed. The four-week rolling average of port cargo throughput and container throughput has increased year-on-year [3] Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk have risen, while the comprehensive price of sugar has decreased. Pork prices have increased, with the wholesale price of piglets remaining stable compared to last week, and the average price of live pigs has decreased. In terms of pig farming profits, both self-bred and purchased pig farming profits have increased. In the broiler farming sector, the price of broiler chicks has decreased. The vegetable price index has decreased, while the futures settlement price of corn has increased, and the futures settlement price of cotton has decreased. The ten-day average of box office revenue has increased, while the ten-day average of movie ticket prices has decreased [3] Resource Products - The ten-day average transaction volume of construction steel has decreased, while the prices of steel billets have remained stable and rebar prices have decreased. In terms of coal prices, the price of Qinhuangdao mixed power coal has decreased, while the price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port has increased. The futures settlement prices of coke and coking coal have both decreased. In terms of inventory, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port has increased, while coking coal inventory at Jingtang Port has decreased, and coke inventory at Tianjin Port has increased. The national cement price index has decreased. Brent crude oil prices have increased, and the national chemical product price index has risen week-on-week, with chemical prices generally increasing, particularly for fuel oil and asphalt. This week, industrial metal prices have generally risen, with prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, cobalt, and nickel increasing, while lead prices have decreased, and most inventories have risen. The prices of gold and silver in the spot and futures markets have increased [4] Financial Real Estate - The net injection in the money market has occurred. The turnover rate and daily transaction volume of A-shares have decreased. The land transaction premium rate has increased, while the transaction area of commercial housing has decreased. The number of second-hand houses listed for sale nationwide has decreased, while the listing price index has increased [4] Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas has increased. The year-on-year decline in the average daily power generation of key national power plants over a 12-week rolling period has narrowed [4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 金融工程日报 两市分化沪指震荡上行，白酒股午后掀涨停潮 市场表现：20260129 规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中上证综 指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。食品饮料、传媒、房 地产、非银、石油石化行业表现较好，电子、国防军工、机械、电新、汽车 行业表现较差。白酒、黄酒、房地产精选、小红书平台、黄金精选等概念表 现较好，MLCC、长江存储、液态金属、中芯国际产业链、珠宝等概念表现 较差。 市场情绪：20260129 收盘时有 88 只股票涨停，有 36 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日收盘收益为 3.03%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-2.93%。今日 封板率 64%，较前日下降 7%，连板率 24%，较前日提升 5%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260128 两融余额为 27426 亿元，其中融资余额 27253 亿元，融券余额 174 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 9.9%。 折溢价：20260128 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是黄金股票 ETF 基金，ETF 折价 较多的是科技龙头 ETF 汇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is driven by multiple factors including the collapse of the dollar system, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical disturbances, competition for resource pricing power, and increasing demand from AI technologies [1][8]. Group 1: Dollar System Collapse - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments amounting to $1.2 trillion, which is about one-fourth of the U.S. government's total annual revenue [2][9]. - As the credibility of the dollar system declines, central banks worldwide are aggressively purchasing gold to hedge against risks [2][9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve recently decided to maintain the federal funds rate, but ongoing pressure from political figures may lead to future rate cuts [3][10]. - Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, while rising inflation expectations could further elevate gold prices [3][10]. Group 3: Geopolitical Disturbances - Recent U.S. actions, such as the capture of Venezuela's president and military maneuvers in the Middle East, have heightened geopolitical tensions [4][11]. - These provocations have led to a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset among investors [4][11]. Group 4: Competition for Resource Pricing Power - The importance of resources has escalated, with the U.S. aiming to control oil and mineral resources in regions like Venezuela and Greenland [5][12]. - Successful consolidation of these resources could enhance the U.S.'s share of global oil reserves, further solidifying the petrodollar system and driving up prices of precious metals [5][12]. Group 5: AI Demand Boost - The expansion of AI technologies is expected to significantly increase demand for various base metals, including copper, aluminum, silver, tin, and nickel [6][13]. - Projections indicate that global data centers alone could consume over 4.3 million tons of copper in the next decade, contributing to sustained upward pressure on metal prices [6][13].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown remarkable performance, with a growth rate exceeding 140% over the past year, leading all 31 primary industries in China [1]. Group 1: Definition and Classification - Non-ferrous metals are defined as all metals other than ferrous metals, which include only iron, manganese, and chromium [1]. - According to the China Securities Industry Classification, non-ferrous metals belong to a secondary industry that can be further divided into four tertiary industries, each with distinct representative metals and investment logic [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector can be attributed to three main factors: macroeconomic conditions, demand, and supply [3]. Macroeconomic Factors - Global monetary policy is trending towards easing, particularly with both the US and China experiencing simultaneous fiscal and monetary loosening, which typically supports rising commodity prices [4]. Demand Factors - The rapid development of AI technology is driving demand for upstream resources, as the growth in AI is heavily reliant on hardware infrastructure, leading to increased demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5]. Supply Factors - While demand is surging, supply is constrained due to long-term underinvestment in mineral exploration, lengthy development cycles for new mines, and increased export controls from resource-rich countries, alongside geopolitical tensions affecting supply stability [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors optimistic about the non-ferrous metal sector can consider various types of funds based on their risk preferences, including index funds, active funds, and commodity funds [7]. Fund Types - Index funds track specific non-ferrous metal stock indices and are suitable for investors looking for transparent, low-cost exposure to the sector [8]. - Active funds allow fund managers to select stocks based on comprehensive analysis, aiming for returns exceeding the industry average, but typically come with higher fees [8]. - Commodity funds invest in metal futures contracts rather than stocks, offering high-risk, high-reward opportunities suitable for experienced investors [8]. Group 4: Market Considerations - The non-ferrous metal sector has already seen significant price increases, with some commodities reaching historical highs, and is subject to considerable volatility influenced by macroeconomic cycles, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical factors [9].

Market Performance - On January 29, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index decreased by 1.69%, closing at 1,536.00 points[1] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange was 29.703 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 4.79%[1] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange was 937.031 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 583.083 billion CNY[1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (+30.0%), Media (+19.8%), and Food & Beverage (+5.1%) on the same day[1] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals (-3.3%), Electric Power Equipment (-2.5%), and Social Services (-1.9%)[1] Stock Performance - Among the 291 listed companies, 85 saw an increase, 3 remained flat, and 203 experienced a decline[1] - The leading gainers included Keli Co. (+29.99%), Liujin Technology (+19.82%), and Meibang Technology (+12.70%) while the largest decliners were Nongda Technology (-12.93%), Guangxin Technology (-9.91%), and Aweite (-7.91%)[1] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange was approximately 48.50 times earnings, which is higher than the ChiNext's 45.59 times but lower than the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's 79.67 times[1] - The highest average P/E ratio by sector was in Non-ferrous Metals at 140.1 times, followed by Oil & Petrochemicals at 106.2 times and Food & Beverage at 90.1 times[1] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[1][16]

昨天，整个市场有超过3600只股票是下跌的，大盘走得摇摇晃晃。 但就在这种让人提不起精神的行情里，有一批股票却像坐了火箭。 更关键的是，这批暴 涨的股票背后，站着同一个"超级主力"——全国社保基金。 回顾2025年的表现，社保基金被证明是市场上最"聪明"的钱之一。 全年，社保基金的持仓组合里，跑出了59只股价翻倍的股票，其中有16只股票的涨幅甚 至超过了200%。 在很多人抱怨赚钱难的年份里，社保基金的投资组合却取得了稳健的回报。 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-03-31 | 2024-12-31 | | 2024-09-30 | 该股票最热门的概念 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 前十大流通股东累计持有A、H流通股:109.76亿股,累计占A、H流通股比:64.14%,较上期减少2.58亿股 | | | | | | | | 机构或基金名称 | | | 持有数量(股) | 持股变化(股) | 占流通股比例 | 变动比例 | | 中国铝业集团有限公司 | | | 52.35亿 | 不变 | 30.60% | 不变 ...

今天，A股三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.16%，深证成指、创业板指数分别下跌 0.30%、0.57%。 不过，市场风格要发生彻底的变化，不是一朝一夕的事，会有一个持续的过程，后续仍需要观察。这方 面，可以观察大盘蓝筹的表现。 沪深京三市成交额达到32597亿元，较昨日放量2671亿元。个股跌多涨少，有1803只个股上涨，个股涨 跌幅的中位数为下跌0.92%。 今天市场出现三大异常现象，值得注意。 首先，自1月14日投机情绪降温以来，宽基ETF一直是带量下跌，但今天部分宽基ETF却是带量拉升， 比如上证50ETF（510050）。 其次，上证50、沪深300两大指数领涨，中小盘方向的宽基指数调整。科创50指数跌幅较大，跌幅达 3.03%。 上证50、沪深300两大指数的ETF，是近期神秘资金卖出的主要对象；中小盘方向的宽基指数，是资金 近期为躲避ETF抛售而选择的方向。如今，二者的位置有点调转过来的味道。 最后，低位的酿酒、地产板块大涨，位置不高的食品饮料板块也涨幅居前。白酒股接近全部涨停，白酒 ETF涨停。 要知道，白酒板块近两年表现低迷，一直被市场嘲笑，如今突然大涨，惊呆了众多投资者。 其他板 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market showed significant structural differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 4150 points and closing at 4157.98 points, up 0.16%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.30% to 14300.08 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.57% to 3304.51 points, indicating a mixed performance across the market [3][6] - The beverage sector led the market with a notable increase of 6.74%, while the liquor index surged by 9.93%. Notably, the price of Moutai rose by 20 yuan to 1610 yuan per bottle, suggesting strong sales activity ahead of the Spring Festival [6][8] - The real estate sector also saw a rise of 2.48%, with several companies hitting the daily limit up. Reports indicate that some real estate firms are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, hinting at a potential easing of regulatory pressures [6][8] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the liquor sector may benefit from improved sales activity before the Spring Festival, while the real estate sector could gain from expectations of regulatory easing. Resource stocks are expected to continue their strong performance due to rising prices and safe-haven demand [8][18] - The report emphasizes a focus on sectors such as photovoltaic (solar energy), commercial aerospace, and precious metals, which are seen as key investment themes in the current market environment [8][17] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity index continued its strong upward trend, with copper prices reaching new historical highs. The Shanghai copper price closed at 109,110 yuan per ton, while LME copper peaked at 14,125 USD per ton [11][12] - Precious metals also experienced significant gains, with gold and silver prices rising sharply, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a weak US dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [11][12] Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements [15][17] - The report highlights the ongoing strong performance of precious metals and industrial metals, suggesting that the momentum may continue in the future [18]

本报告导读： 2025 年 Q4 新股首日涨幅达 176%，并且未盈利新股对 A1 类账户贡献明显，打新基 金中位数 Q4 收益 0.45%，重仓行业为电子、有色金属和电力设备。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王政之(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) | | | 021-38038671 | | | wangsiqi3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080007 | 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.29 未盈利新股显著增厚打新收益 ——2025Q4 打新基金持仓和收益分析 [Table_Report] 相关报告 新股精要—国内汽车制造机器视觉设备龙头易思 维 2026.01.27 北证日均成交金额有 ...

中色股份公告，2025年第四季度新签项目合同数量为3个，合同金额为8.19亿元。在执行未完工项目合 同数量为26个，合同金额为338.43亿元。已签约未生效项目合同数量为1个，合同金额为99.36亿元。已 中标未签约项目合同数量为2个，合同金额为3.33亿元。 ...