1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market currently shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a relatively healthy fundamental situation, which provides support for iron ore prices. After the Sino - US Geneva talks, the tariff policy has been eased, and with the revision of downstream demand expectations, the iron ore price is expected to rebound in the near future [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On May 12, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upwards, rising 3.16% to close at 718.5 yuan/ton. The prices of other steel futures also showed varying degrees of increase, such as RB2510 rising 1.52%, HC2510 rising 1.51%, and SS2507 rising 1.29% [5][7]. - In terms of positions, the long - short position changes of different contracts varied. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 18,164 hands, and the top 20 short positions increased by 5,325 hands, with a long - short difference of 12,839 hands and a deviation of 2.84% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - In the spot market on May 12, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by $2.5 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ and MACD indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed golden crosses [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the shipments from Brazil decreased, while those from Australia increased slightly. The total shipments from 19 ports decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports also decreased slightly. However, the overall level was still moderately high. The shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.68% compared with the previous four weeks, and it is expected that the arrivals will remain at a moderately high level in the near future, with a loose iron ore supply [10][11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased again, reaching a new high of 2.4564 million tons since late October 2023. Steel mills maintained strong production, providing strong support for the actual demand for iron ore [11]. - **Inventory**: The available days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and the port inventory decreased slightly. As the arrivals remain at a high level, it is expected that the inventory will increase in the near future, but the increase space is limited [11]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [12]. - According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 317,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. The export of new energy vehicles was 200,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 27% and a year - on - year increase of 76%. From January to April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 1.295 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, and the export of new energy vehicles was 642,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 52.6% [12]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks jointly stated that both sides will take measures to adjust tariffs. The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and China will make corresponding adjustments to the tariffs on US goods. Both sides will also cancel some additional tariffs and take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. They will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [12][13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port iron ore trading volume, steel mill inventory available days, port inventory and dredging volume, and various production and consumption data of steel products [20][22][24].

铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/5/13 | | | | | 现货 | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | 普氏62指数 | | 98.60 | 0.60 | 1.70 | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 762 | 14 | 9 | 815.0 | 97.10 | 2.85 | 3.05 | -23.19 -2.50 | | | PB粉 | 769 | 15 | 11 | 815.2 | 99.80 | 2.80 | 2.70 | | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 747 | 17 | 10 | 816.0 | 95.25 | 2.90 | 3.25 | -0.62 | | | 金布巴 | 729 | 14 | 11 | 820.5 | 91.40 | 2.80 | 3.45 | 4.98 | | 主流 | 混合粉 | 678 | 16 | 16 | 803.0 ...

需求预期悲观，钢材市场延续弱势 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-05-12 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-80128600-8619 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 偏空 | | 逻辑 | 5月份为钢材市场需求淡季，小长假之后钢材需 | 本周铁水产量继续回升，且盈利钢厂占比也回升2.59个 | | | 求回落明显。虽然有节假日因素影响，但上半年 | 百分点，短期铁水产量仍将维持高位。不过，鉴于钢材 | | | 顶部应该已经出现。供应方面，因钢厂利润尚可， | 需求回落，铁水产量或已接近顶部区域。发货量和到港 | | | 铁水及成材产量均处于高位，不过随着钢材需求 | 量虽因节假日因素有所回落，但二季度为铁矿石发运 ...

铁矿石需警惕利空因素与价格 下跌趋势形成自我强化 作者：曹有明 从业资格号：F3038998 交易咨询号：Z0013162 邮箱：caoyouming@sd-gold.com 2025年5月12日星期一 ——山金期货铁矿石专题报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 p 铁矿石期货价格已经跌至长期上行趋势线附近，如果期价继续下跌，很有可能形成向下的有效突破，将打 开下行空间。最近几个月价格下跌的过程中，持仓量不断增加。整体形势对多头很不利。 p 供应：随着南半球天气的好转，巴西和澳洲发运量已经回到正常的水平，且未来一段时间，发运量将继续 呈现季节性增加态势，国内到港量也将延续季节性增加的趋势，国内矿山的产量和库存在增加。 p 需求：目前样本钢厂铁水产量已经大幅高于去年同期，且高于去年的峰值水平。在整体需求预期偏弱的情 况下，如此高的铁水产量很难持续，预计今年铁水产量的峰值已经到来，后期下降的预期强烈，这意味着 今年铁矿石的需求高峰期已至，后市铁矿石需求回落概率大。另外，终端需求方面，上周钢材表观需求大 幅回落，今年的出口数据好于预期，但整体增幅在贸易战背景 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Spot prices continued to decline, and the market was weak. Supply showed high blast - furnace production and continuous reduction in electric - furnace output. Inventories of building materials and plates were both accumulating. Demand for building materials had a slower growth rate, and plate demand was weak domestically but strong externally. Profits of blast - furnaces expanded, while losses of electric - furnaces increased. The basis widened slightly. Overall, the supply - demand structure of building materials and plates weakened last week, and there was a risk of early inventory accumulation for building materials. The strategy was to maintain a bearish view and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [7]. Iron Ore - Ore prices rose slightly, but the market was still weak. Supply from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also decreased. Demand exceeded expectations due to increased blast - furnace production. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices dropped. The overall supply - demand situation in the industry remained weak, and the market was dragged down by the falling prices of steel products. The strategy was to continuously monitor the opportunity for a supplementary decline when hot - metal production peaked, and in the short - term, a small number of short positions could be established, adding positions on rebounds and holding them in the medium - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar prices continued to fall. The 10 - contract dropped 74 to 3022, and spot prices also weakened. The rebar in East China was reported at 3170 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 30 yuan. The overall trading volume was light [14]. 1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The average daily hot - metal output was 245.64 tons, a weekly increase of 0.22 tons. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnaces decreased by 0.20 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, and hot - rolled production increased by 1.08 tons [17][24][27]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, from May 1st to May 7th, the national cement delivery volume decreased by 6.0% week - on - week and 22.5% year - on - year. The actual steel procurement volume in April was 566 tons, 4.1% less than the expected volume. The planned steel procurement volume in May was 605 tons, and the actual volume was expected to increase by about 4% month - on - month. For plates, domestic manufacturing demand declined significantly, while exports in April reached a new high [30][33]. 1.4 Profit - The profitability rate of blast - furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 91 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit decreased by 13 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, factory inventories increased by 15.11 tons, and social inventories in most regions except East and South China decreased. For hot - rolled coils, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased in most regions [41][44]. 1.6 Basis - The current basis of rebar 10 was 128, 24 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on the previous long - basis positions around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [50]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 15, 11 less inverted than last week. The current inversion situation was difficult to reverse completely, so no action was recommended [54]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 135, 27 wider than last week. The spot spread was 50, 10 wider than last week. There was no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing, so no action was recommended [57]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices continued to fall. The 09 - contract dropped 7.5 to 696, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped 3 to 758 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was weak, and port trading was poor [62]. 2.2 Supply - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2540.4 tons, a decrease of 217.9 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased by 45.2 tons week - on - week [65][71]. 2.3 Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased to 245.64 tons per day. After the May Day restocking ended, the market purchasing sentiment weakened, but the actual restocking situation was still good due to high hot - metal production and low steel mill inventories [74][78]. 2.4 Inventory - The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 84 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 91.43 tons [81][84]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping price from Western Australia to China was 7.55 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to China was 18.43 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 dollars/ton week - on - week [87]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26, 1.5 higher than last week, and the overall spread structure was flat. The 09 - contract discount was 78, at a relatively high level. The coking - ore ratio dropped significantly, and the rebar - ore ratio changed little. There was no obvious direction for spread trading [89][92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend. The supply is generally loose as overseas shipments are on the rise and major mines' shipments are gradually recovering, despite a decline in arrivals last week. On the demand side, although steel mills' profitability improved last week, leading to increased production and a slight rise in molten iron output, downstream demand weakened, and molten iron output is expected to decline in the next period. At the macro - level, domestic growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented, and significant progress has been made in China - US economic and trade talks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3022 | -74 | -2.39 | 8123194 | 2893444 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3157 | -47 | -1.47 | 2485168 | 1395031 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 696.0 | -7.5 | -1.07 | 1895858 | 699233 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 877.5 | -53.0 | -5.70 | 1356112 | 418835 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1446.5 | -91.5 | -5.95 | 98662 | 50876 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mills' profitability improved, leading to active production and a slight increase in molten iron output. However, downstream demand weakened, and molten iron output is expected to decline in the next period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, a 0.29 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 3.12 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 92.09%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.42 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a 2.59 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.92 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4564 million tons, a 0.22 - million - ton increase from the previous week and an 11.14 - million - ton increase year - on - year [4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, both shipments and arrivals declined month - on - month, maintaining a medium level. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.404 million tons, a decrease of 2.18 million tons from the previous week. Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, a decrease of 2.26 million tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.184 million tons, a decrease of 1.288 million tons from the previous week. Brazilian shipments were 7.712 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from the previous week. The total global iron ore shipments were 30.505 million tons, a decrease of 1.377 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 147.6471 million tons, a decrease of 0.8356 million tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons, a decrease of 0.1673 million tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10th to 11th. The talks were candid, in - depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and making substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [9]. - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [9]. - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, which was in line with market expectations. This was the third consecutive time since January this year that the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. After the Fed's interest rate decision was announced, traders still expected the Fed to cut interest rates before July and predicted three interest rate cuts this year [9]. - On May 7th, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point reduction in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new real - estate development model and approving a 60 - billion - yuan long - term investment pilot for insurance funds. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi - "stabilization fund" and introduce policies and measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [9]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and consumption in the iron ore and steel industries, including the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production, and port inventories [7][10][12].

5月9日：全国主港铁矿石成交76.6万吨，环比下跌31.91%；远期现货成交167.4万吨。 本周247样本钢厂日均铁水产量出现增量。247样本钢厂铁水日均产量为245.64万吨/天，环比上周增0.22 万吨/天，较年初增20.44万吨/天，同比增11.14万吨/天。 5月12日，铁矿石期货震荡走高，截至发稿主力合约报711.5元，涨幅达2.15%。 【消息面汇总】 2025年5月5日-5月11日，澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2422.5万吨，环比减少117.9万吨。澳洲发运量1797.2万 吨，环比增加28.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1593.8万吨，环比增加75.4万吨。巴西发运量625.2万 吨，环比减少146.0万吨。本期全球铁矿石发运总量3029.0万吨，环比减少21.5万吨。 国新国证期货：上周铁矿海外发运环比有所减少，国内到港量小幅下降但仍处高位，钢厂刚需补库对铁 水产量仍存支撑，铁水产量继续增加但增速放缓，短期铁矿呈现震荡走势。 华联期货：产业方面，本期外矿发运量和到港量均有所减少，供应端主流矿山发运保持中性水平，铁矿 港口库存小幅去化。需求端，钢厂开工率小幅回升，日均铁水产量环比增加0.22万吨至 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 12 日） 观点参考 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石需求维持高位，继续给予矿价支撑，但钢材需求 面临季节性走弱，难以承接高铁水局面，预计矿石需求将触顶，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，海外矿商 发运积极，而内矿供应回升，铁矿石供应维持高位，且增量预期未退。总之，中美贸易谈判取得实质 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows overseas Fed maintaining interest rates and UK - US tariff trade agreement, while domestically, there will be Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks and central bank measures to stabilize the property market. In terms of supply and demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased, but April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates are slightly up, and hot metal production remains high. Technically, the iron ore 2509 contract shows a bearish pattern. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of May 9, the iron ore main contract futures price was 696 (-7.5) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 (-7) yuan/dry ton. - The total Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased by 218000 tons this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons. Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 15.184 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.712 million tons. - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 45200 tons. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons; at 45 ports, 24.497 million tons; and at the six northern ports, 13.347 million tons. - Hot metal production increased by 220 tons, with a daily average of 2.4564 million tons. - Port inventory decreased by 83000 tons. As of May 9, 2025, the inventory at 47 ports was 147.64 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 89.5898 million tons. - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, up 2.59 percentage points week - on - week and 6.92 percentage points year - on - year [6]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement. Domestically, Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks will be held, and the central bank took measures to stabilize the property market. - Supply and demand: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventory decreased. However, April's iron ore imports rebounded significantly, with an expected increase in supply. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates were slightly up, and hot metal production remained high. - Technical: The daily K - line of the iron ore 2509 contract was under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed DIFF and DEA below the 0 - axis. - Strategy: It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the iron ore 2509 contract [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures prices fluctuated weakly this week. The I2509 contract was stronger than the I2601 contract, with a spread of 26 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Iron ore warehouse receipts remained flat this week, and the net long position of the top 20 holders increased. On May 9, the warehouse receipt volume was 3200 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 7604 lots, an increase of 7823 lots from last week. - Spot prices declined this week. On May 9, the 61% Australian Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, spot prices were stronger than futures prices, with a basis of 103 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [14][22][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The total arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased this period. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 25.404 million tons, and the total arrivals at 47 ports were 26.344 million tons. - The utilization rate of mine production capacity decreased, and the BDI index decreased. As of April 25, the utilization rate of 266 mines was 63.06%, and the inventory was 65260 tons. On May 8, the BDI was 1316, down 105 week - on - week. - Iron ore port inventory decreased. This week, the total inventory at 47 ports was 147.6471 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons. In April 2025, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. - The available days of iron ore inventory in sample steel mills remained flat this week. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.5898 million tons, and the available days of inventory in large and medium - sized steel mills were 22 days as of May 7 [32][35][40]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - From January to April, steel exports increased year - on - year. In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, and from January to April, China exported 37.891 million tons of steel and imported 2.072 million tons of steel. - Steel mill blast furnace operating rates increased, and hot metal production increased. On May 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, and the daily average hot metal production was 2.4564 million tons [46][49]. 3.5 Options Market - With the overall weakness of the black - series and the significant rebound in iron ore imports, the expectation of increased supply is enhanced. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The current period shows a significant decline in apparent demand, with steel prices weakening and a notable drop in night - trading. Despite the May Day holiday factor, the decline is greater than in previous years. Steel prices weakened first while iron ore remained strong, leading to a lower steel - ore ratio. Considering high production, if demand weakens, steel mills are expected to cut production. With relatively low steel inventories, unilateral operations are recommended to be on hold for now. Arbitrage operations of going long on steel and short on raw materials can be considered[1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore was weakly running, affected by the news of crude steel production cuts. The price of iron ore is under continuous upward pressure. Fundamentally, this week's average daily hot metal production increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The social inventory of finished products generally increased, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly, and hot metal production may continue to stay high in the short term. Looking forward, the terminal demand for finished products determines the sustainability of high hot metal production. The marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure. In reality, with high hot metal production, iron ore inventory is basically stable, but from May to June, overseas mines will increase shipments, and the subsequent supply - demand pressure for iron ore will increase. Coupled with the increasing expectation of crude steel production cuts, the iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure[3]. Coke - As of May 8, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The second round of spot price increases for coke has encountered resistance and is currently in a game stage. Considering the weak situation of coking coal, the second - round price increase may not materialize. After the holiday, the ex - factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trade price will run weakly. On the supply side, due to the high hot metal production of downstream steel mills, coke enterprises have good orders, and their production and profits have improved. On the demand side, after the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed, without obvious inventory accumulation. It is necessary to pay attention to whether hot metal production will decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants and steel mills has been decreasing, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Although the fundamentals of coke have improved, the weakness of coking coal, over - capacity, and the lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Coking Coal - As of May 8, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend. After the May Day holiday, the market auction was cold again, and the pattern of loose supply and demand was difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and production was at a relatively high level. In terms of imported coal, before the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased significantly, and the import profit of seaborne coal continued to be negative. On the demand side, as the downstream blast furnaces and coking plants continued to operate, the inventory was still purchased on - demand. After the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, with pressure to reduce prices and sell. The port inventory decreased rapidly, and the downstream inventory was at a low level. Coal prices are still in a downward trend. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main factors causing the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures' main contract oscillated. Spot traders mainly replenished stocks, and the willingness for speculative inventory was limited. Fundamentally, ferrosilicon production increased slightly month - on - month. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure was relieved, and factory inventories stopped increasing and started to decline. However, the overall inventory was still at a medium - high level. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In non - steel demand, the pre - holiday inventory reduction of metal iron manufacturers supported prices, but downstream demand and procurement were low. At the same time, although overseas quotations were high, the trading volume decreased, and buyers had limited acceptance of high prices. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke remained stable. With low inventory and reduced supply, the supply - demand contradiction was limited. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will oscillate in the short term[7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price continued to oscillate and explore downward, without macro - level fluctuations. Fundamentally, ferromanganese continued to cut production. Currently, the loss of manufacturers in Ningxia has deepened, and the production enthusiasm continued to weaken. Some factories in Inner Mongolia will conduct routine inspections, and most factories in Guangxi still maintain production and load reduction. With the arrival of the wet season in Yunnan, production increased slightly. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still decreased significantly under production cuts, and the supply - demand contradiction deepened further. In terms of manganese ore, the global manganese ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and the short - term arrival volume remained high. The seaborne inventory of non - mainstream mines in China was at a high level. Currently, the import profit of port traders was negative, and manganese ore was under the pressure of negative feedback and potential supply release. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will oscillate weakly in the short term[7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions decreased, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed[1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of billets decreased, and the costs of various steel production processes changed. The profits of different regions and varieties of steel increased[1]. Production and Inventory - The average daily hot metal production increased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased. The inventory of five major steel products increased, and the inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased[1]. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for steel decreased significantly, including the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils[1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The costs of different types of iron ore warehouse receipts decreased, and the prices and spreads of futures contracts changed. The spot prices of iron ore in ports decreased, and the prices of price indices increased slightly[3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and monthly national import volume decreased[3]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills, the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports, monthly national pig iron production, and monthly national crude steel production increased[3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased slightly, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased[3]. Coke Price and Spread - The spot prices of coke in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coke futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The coking profit increased significantly[5]. Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly[5]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased slightly[5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreased[5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke increased negatively, indicating a more serious oversupply situation[5]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coking coal futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The profit of sample coal mines decreased slightly[5]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased. The import profit of seaborne coal was negative[5]. Demand - The demand for coking coal was mainly on - demand procurement, and hot metal production remained high[5]. Inventory - The inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory was at a low level[5]. Ferrosilicon Price and Spread - The price of the ferrosilicon futures' main contract increased slightly, and the spot prices in some regions remained unchanged while others decreased. The spread between the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts decreased[7]. Cost and Profit - The costs of ferrosilicon production in different regions remained stable, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased[7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises increased[7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production and operating rate of ferrosilicon - chromium decreased[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average number of available days for downstream ferrosilicon decreased[7]. Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The price of the ferromanganese futures' main contract increased significantly, and the spot prices in various regions decreased. The spreads between different regions and the main contract changed[7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed, and the costs of ferromanganese production in different regions decreased slightly[7]. Supply - The global manganese ore shipments increased slightly, the arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory decreased[7]. Demand - The weekly production of ferromanganese decreased, and the operating rate decreased. The demand for ferromanganese from steel mills remained high[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average number of available days for ferromanganese increased[7].