尿素日报 | 2025-06-12 工业需求下降，工厂库存上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-11，尿素主力收盘1667元/吨（-11）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：83 元/吨（+1）；河南基差：83元/吨（+1）；江苏基差：83元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润185元/吨（-10），出口利润608 元/吨（+2）。 供应端：截至2025-06-11，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.71 万吨（+14.17），港口样 本库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-11，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.71日（+0.24）。 尿素工业需求下降，虽然目前处于传统农业需求旺季，但下游需求不温不火，农需推进不及预期，工业复合肥及 板材行业开工下降，市场情绪偏弱，工厂库存继续上涨。尿素出口法检相关信息明确后，出 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 股权登记日：2025 年 6 月 11 日 ? 除权日：2025 年 6 月 12 日 ? 本次上市无限售股份数量：12,368,421股 ? 上市日期：2025 年 6 月 12 日 ? 是否涉及差异化分红送转：否 一、 新增无限售流通股上市情况 （一） 权益分派方案简述： 中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司 （二） 股权登记日、除权日 本次权益分派的股权登记日为：2025 年 6 月 11 日。 本次权益分派的除权日为：2025 年 6 月 12 日。 （三） 上市数量 本次上市无限售股份数量为：12,368,421股 （四） 上市时间 本次上市流通日期为：2025 年 6 月 12 日 二、 有关咨询办法 联系部门：董事会办公室。 联系电话：0551-63515128。 特此公告。 本次利润分配及转增股本以方案实施前的中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司 总股本200,000,000股为基数，每股派发现金红利0.15元（含税），以资本公积金 向全体股东每股转增 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-11 市场情绪较弱，尿素延续下行 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-10，尿素主力收盘1678元/吨（-19）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：82 元/吨（+19）；河南基差：82元/吨（+19）；江苏基差：102元/吨（+19）；尿素生产利润195元/吨（+0），出口利润 605元/吨（+72）。 供应端：截至2025-06-10，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为103.54 万吨（+5.48），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-10，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.47日（-0.41）。 市场情绪较弱，市场延续下行，当前处于传统农需旺季，下游持续推进，但农需推进不及预期，工业复合肥及板 材行业开工下降，工业需求减少。煤炭、天然气等上游原料价格窄幅变动，成本端稳定延续 ...

Core Insights - The carbon circular economy and green chemical project has been signed and will be established in the Maoming Zero Carbon Industrial Park, focusing on CO₂ extraction from flue gas and utilizing ammonia raw materials for urea production, filling a market gap in South China [1][3] Investment and Economic Impact - The project involves an investment of 3.5 billion yuan, primarily for constructing urea production facilities, with an annual production capacity of 520,000 tons of urea [1][3] - The investment intensity is approximately 7.35 million yuan per mu, with a comprehensive fiscal contribution of nearly 300,000 yuan per mu [1] Technological Innovation - The project will utilize the world's first new urea production process and the first industrial application of low-concentration CO₂ purification from coal-fired power plants, attracting significant attention in the urea industry [3][5] - The urea production technology is based on the ultra-low energy consumption (ULE) process developed by Stamicarbon, which is recognized as the most advanced green urea production technology in the industry [5][7] Environmental Benefits - The project aims to reduce CO₂ emissions by over 340,000 tons annually by capturing CO₂ from the thermal power plant's flue gas [7][9] - The energy consumption per unit output is approximately 0.06 tons of standard coal per 10,000 yuan, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.47 tons [7] Strategic Alignment - The project aligns with China's "dual carbon" strategy, which aims for peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, promoting energy green transformation and low-carbon industrial development [7][9] - The Maoming Zero Carbon Industrial Park is positioned as a demonstration project for carbon circular economy and green chemicals in Guangdong Province, enhancing the region's green chemical industry [9][10] Future Development - Construction of the project is set to begin in September 2023, with an expected completion and production start date in September 2027, addressing the urea supply shortage in South China [9][10] - The project is strategically located near existing industrial projects, facilitating resource sharing and cost reduction for production [10][12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The methanol market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the possibility of tight supply in East China ports due to the ship - age limit [2]. - Urea prices are falling due to weak downstream demand and lower - than - expected export demand [3]. - The polyolefin market has weak fundamentals, with supply pressure and limited demand [4]. - PX and PTA are expected to be under pressure, and PTA can consider far - month reverse spreads [6]. - Ethylene glycol market sentiment is weak with port inventory accumulation and possible weakening demand [6]. - Short fiber prices follow raw materials, and there is a possibility of enterprise production cuts in the off - season [6]. - Bottle - grade PET may face inventory accumulation pressure, and industry production cuts may be realized [6]. - PVC futures prices may fluctuate at a low level due to weak supply - demand patterns [7]. - Caustic soda futures prices are under pressure at a high level due to high - supply and general non - aluminum demand [7]. - Glass prices are weak, and cautious operation is recommended [8]. - Soda ash futures prices are expected to be mainly bearish with supply pressure [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Coastal basis continues to strengthen, with high import arrivals, increased port inventory, and sufficient domestic supply. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the impact of the ship - age limit in Jiangsu Maritime needs attention [2]. Urea - Futures prices have been falling. Agricultural demand is scattered, industrial demand is weakening, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. Exports are advancing slowly, and prices are declining [3]. Polyolefins - Futures contracts fluctuate narrowly. Polyethylene has medium - to - high maintenance losses, and supply pressure remains. Demand in the agricultural film sector is in the off - season, and inventory may accumulate slightly [4]. Styrene - Futures contracts rebound. The cost side has no obvious one - way drive, supply is expected to increase, and demand may also increase slightly, resulting in a stalemate [5]. Polyester - PX and PTA are under pressure due to upstream production increases and downstream load reductions. PTA can consider far - month reverse spreads. Ethylene glycol has inventory accumulation and weak market sentiment. Short fiber orders are weak, and bottle - grade PET may face inventory pressure and production cuts [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are rising due to cost increases but may fluctuate at a low level due to supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda has high - supply and general non - aluminum demand, with prices under pressure at a high level [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are falling, with weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to production line changes. Soda ash prices are weak, with supply expected to increase and downstream replenishment willingness being weak [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and closed low on June 10, 2025, with a nearly 2% decline in the afternoon. The market sentiment is expected to continue weakening. Although supply has decreased slightly due to temporary inspections in some factories, the daily output remains around 200,000 tons, limiting the upside of the futures price. The demand is weak, with slow agricultural demand and low operating loads in compound fertilizer factories. After the wheat harvest, agricultural demand is expected to increase, but it may not change the oversupply situation. The current low price may lead to a rebound, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment is expected to weaken. Supply decreased slightly, but daily output is still around 200,000 tons, restricting the upside. Demand is weak, and after the wheat harvest, agricultural demand may increase but has limited support [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,700 yuan/ton and closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, a -1.24% change. The trading volume was 268,833 lots (+2,976 lots). The positions of the top 20 main players showed a decrease of 6,305 lots in long positions and an increase of 955 lots in short positions. On June 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,051, a decrease of 2 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: After a price cut yesterday, orders improved and prices were slightly raised. However, with the decline in futures today, the market sentiment is expected to weaken. The ex-factory prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market price was stable, while the futures closing price declined. The basis of the September contract in Shandong strengthened by 19 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On June 10, 2025, the national daily urea output was 202,200 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous day [9].

尿素产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1678 | -19 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 32 | -9 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 268833 | 2976 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -9067 | -8585 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6051 | -2 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1810 | -40 河南(日,元/吨) | 1760 | -70 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -70 山东(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1830 | -60 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 82 | 19 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 360 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 360 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to macro - factors such as a weaker US dollar and optimistic sentiment from US - China trade negotiations. OPEC + production increased in May, but less than planned. The market is in a strong - side shock trend, suggesting a short - term long - bias approach. Resistance levels are given for WTI, Brent, and SC. Options can use a straddle structure [2]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply has increased, but short - term downside is limited due to downstream demand and geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term observation, 9 - 1 short - spread, and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, but there is support at low levels. Strategies are to focus on the 4600 support and use a short - on - rebound approach, and 9 - 1 short - spread. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to remain low in June, with good supply - demand structure but limited upside due to weak demand. It is expected to trade in a range, and look for 9 - 1 long - spread opportunities. - Short - fiber: Processing fee recovery is limited, and absolute price follows raw materials. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at low levels. - Bottle - chip: Supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and the processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Recent decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, but decreased in Shandong. Demand is supported by alumina. Inventory is accumulating in East China. Hold the 7 - 9 long - spread before price cuts or large - scale warehouse - receipt outflows. - PVC: Short - term is in a shock trend, but long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure will increase in June, and demand is weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy [11][16]. Styrene Industry - Short - term styrene may fluctuate, and mid - term pay attention to the bearish opportunity from raw material resonance. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventory has decreased slightly, but supply may increase after plant restart [19][22]. PE and PP Industry - PE: Inventory is accumulating at the beginning of the month, with slight destocking in social inventory. Supply and demand are balanced in June, with limited up - and - down drivers. - PP: New capacity will be put into operation in June - July, and demand is in the off - season. There is a large inventory - accumulation pressure. Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [26][27]. Urea Industry - High supply is not matched by demand. Agricultural demand has slightly improved but lacks activity, and industrial demand is weakened by the decline in compound fertilizer production. Future trends depend on export policy and market sentiment. [33] Methanol Industry - Supply is abundant with high domestic production and expected high imports. Demand has increased in MTO but with poor downstream profits. Price should be traded in the 2200 - 2350 range, and pay attention to the transition from implicit to explicit inventory accumulation [35]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose to $67.04/barrel, WTI to $65.35/barrel, and SC to 479.30 yuan/barrel on June 10. Various spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices changed, and their spreads and cracking spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. decreased, and cash flows of some products also declined [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX price decreased, and various PX spreads changed [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices decreased, and its spreads and basis also changed [6]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased, and to - port expectations changed. Supply and demand are expected to be good in June [6]. - **Industry开工率**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of Shandong caustic soda and East China PVC remained stable or changed slightly, and futures prices also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [12][13]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed, with PVC operating rate increasing and some profit margins improving [14]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [15][16]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some accumulating and some remaining stable [16]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China pure benzene increased [19]. - **Styrene Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and basis and month - spreads changed [20]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Overseas quotes of styrene increased, and import profits decreased [21]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: Operating rates of some industries in the styrene chain changed, and profits of some products improved significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports and downstream products changed [22]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of PE and PP changed slightly, and their spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [26]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of PE and PP enterprises and social inventories increased [26]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [26]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and upstream raw material prices remained stable. Spot prices in different regions decreased [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Agricultural and industrial demands were weak [33]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed, and various spreads and basis also changed [35]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories increased [35]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35].

尿素日报 | 2025-06-10 需求跟进有限，尿素震荡偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-09，尿素主力收盘1697元/吨（-23）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-70）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（-70）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：63 元/吨（-47）；河南基差：63元/吨（-47）；江苏基差：83元/吨（-47）；尿素生产利润195元/吨（-70），出口利润533 元/吨（+17）。 供应端：截至2025-06-09，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为103.54 万吨（+5.48），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-09，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.47日（-0.41）。 需求端表现清淡，下游跟进有限，尿素震荡偏弱。尿素装置检修较少，开工依旧高位运行，供应端偏宽松。煤炭、 天然气等上游原料价格窄幅变动，成本端稳定延续。目前处于农需旺季，但是下游农 ...

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