Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing internal divisions within Europe regarding environmental policies, particularly in light of recent extreme weather events and the economic challenges faced by the region. The debate over air conditioning in France exemplifies the broader conflict between economic survival and environmental ideals [1][2][9]. Group 1: Environmental Policy Divisions - The "air conditioning war" in France reflects a growing divide in environmental policy, with right-wing parties advocating for more practical solutions to heat waves, while left-wing factions warn against exacerbating environmental crises [2][3]. - The "Duplon Law" has intensified conflicts among French political factions, with significant protests from farmers against EU environmental policies that threaten their livelihoods [3][4]. - The rise of far-right parties in the EU, such as the "European Patriots," indicates a shift away from traditional support for green agendas, focusing instead on economic concerns [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Pressures and Environmental Goals - Economic downturns and high inflation have led to a reevaluation of the EU's green agenda, with many parties now prioritizing economic stability over environmental initiatives [1][10]. - The EU's commitment to ambitious climate goals, such as reducing carbon emissions by 55% by 2030, faces increasing political resistance, particularly from right-wing factions [4][6]. - The shift in public priorities towards economic security and international conflicts has diminished the emphasis on climate issues, reflecting a broader trend of environmental policy regression in the EU [10][11]. Group 3: Climate Change Impact - Extreme weather events, including wildfires and floods, have significantly affected Europe, with millions impacted and substantial carbon emissions released [11][12]. - The EU's preparedness for climate change adaptation has been criticized, indicating a lack of effective strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change [12].

Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have alternated in performance, with Hong Kong stocks stabilizing in Q1 driven by the internet sector, followed by new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals in Q2, leading to a compression of the AH premium to approximately 120 by June 2025 [2] - In July and August, A-shares continued to perform strongly while Hong Kong stocks faced pressure from tightening liquidity and competition in the platform economy [2] Funding Environment - The liquidity situation is improving, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority passively injecting liquidity in April and May, leading to a temporary drop in HIBOR to near zero; however, by late June, excess liquidity was being withdrawn, and HIBOR rose rapidly to around 4% in August [3] - The Hong Kong dollar has moved away from the 7.85 weak-side guarantee, and the HIBOR-SOFR overnight interest rate spread has returned to a normal range of about 0.36%, indicating that the most stringent phase of the funding environment is likely over [3] Fundamental Outlook - The consensus EPS forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was revised down from 6.7% in early July to 2.35% by the end of August, primarily due to lowered profit expectations in the platform economy and increased competition in food delivery [4] - However, earnings expectations for sectors such as materials and healthcare within the Hong Kong Stock Connect have been significantly upgraded, and regulatory constraints on unfair competition are expected to reduce price wars in instant retail [4] - With the release of mid-year reports and a shift in outlook for Q4 towards "AI empowerment and efficiency recovery," the internet sector is anticipated to see a rebound in expectations [4] Long-term Framework - The long-term bullish logic for A/H shares is supported by policies and wealth migration, emphasizing a balance between an effective market and proactive government intervention [5] - The dynamic balance aims to stabilize the market while enhancing capital market functions through measures such as mergers and acquisitions, registration system deepening, and attracting long-term capital [5] Structural Changes in Funding - There is a noticeable acceleration in the entry of long-term funds such as social security, insurance, and wealth management into the market, with a clear trend of increased allocation to ETFs and institutional investments [7] - The decline in deposit and wealth management yields has created an "asset shortage" environment, suggesting that both residents and institutions have room to increase their equity allocation [7] Industry and Sector Trends - Emerging sectors such as AI computing chains, semiconductor equipment and materials, military technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robots are advancing from technology to commercialization [8] - This trend is beneficial for platform-based internet companies in AI commercialization as well as for hard technology and its upstream supply [8] External Variables and Capital Inflow - Historically, there is a strong negative correlation between the US dollar index and the Hang Seng Index; if the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle in September and the dollar weakens in Q4, the previously high short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks may trigger a short-covering rally [9] - The potential for overseas capital to flow back into A/H shares is expected to increase [9] September Outlook - The market may experience fluctuations due to external interest rates and internal expectations, but the tightest phase of the funding environment has passed, and the fundamental narrative of "AI empowerment" is set to unfold [10] - Valuations and risk premiums remain attractive, suggesting that in a "fluctuating-upward" rhythm, sectors such as technology internet (AI), innovative pharmaceuticals, high-dividend stocks, and cyclical leaders with "anti-involution" characteristics are more cost-effective main lines [10] Strategy and Allocation - The strategy focuses on capturing rebound opportunities and the main line of "qualitative change," with a shift from "price wars" to "AI efficiency" in the internet/technology sector [10] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is viewed positively, with September being a key window for positioning [10] - In the new consumption sector, performance is prioritized, emphasizing differentiation [10] - High-dividend and "anti-involution" sectors are also highlighted, with a focus on selecting companies with stable cash flow and sustainable dividends [10] Valuation Insights - The forecasted PE for the Hang Seng Technology Index is approximately 20.3 times, which is around 30% lower than levels seen since July 2020 [11] - The Hang Seng Index's TTM PE is about 12.3 times, significantly lower than that of the S&P 500, Nikkei, and European stocks [11] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to 10-year government bonds is about 6.4%, making it attractive to global capital [11] Core Logic - Following the mid-year reports, the impact of "involution" is weakening, and the narrative for Q4 is shifting towards "AI empowerment," with a focus on commercialization and efficiency [12] - The direction includes AI applications, advertising efficiency improvements, and collaboration in cloud and computing services [12] - The strategy emphasizes holding quality leaders with strong execution capabilities during the concentrated period of academic and medical insurance directory catalysts in Q3 and Q4 [12]

Industry Overview Upstream - International crude oil prices are fluctuating at a low level, and PTA prices are falling [2] Midstream - PX operating rate is increasing, and coal consumption of power plants is decreasing [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities are picking up, and the number of international flights is declining [4] Zhongguan Event Overview Production Industry - In the first half of 2025, BYD led in terms of revenue and net profit among listed car companies, while GAC Group's data were at the bottom and it turned from profit to loss. Many car companies saw revenue growth, with BYD and Geely hitting record highs, but only BYD maintained profit growth, and its automotive gross margin dropped by two percentage points [1] - The Ministry of Commerce ruled that US optical fiber producers and exporters circumvented anti - dumping measures on non - dispersion - shifted single - mode optical fibers from the US by changing trade patterns [1] Service Industry - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held a meeting, affirming the achievements since its establishment last year and discussing topics such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, etc. They believe that the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies provide support for the economy [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 2302.9 | 0.00% | | | Spot price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/3 | | | | | Spot price: Palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 9492.0 | - 0.77% | | | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 15460.2 | 0.82% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/3 | 20.0 | 0.60% | | | Spot price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 80360.0 | 0.97% | | | Spot price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 22220.0 | - 0.20% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 20743.3 | - 0.22% | | | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 123333.3 | 1.12% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 16825.0 | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3154.5 | - 2.67% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 782.3 | - 0.92% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3322.5 | - 1.99% | | | Spot price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 9/3 | 13.9 | 0.00% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 15050.0 | 0.95% | | | China Plastics City price index | Daily | - | 9/3 | 802.4 | - 0.18% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/3 | 65.6 | 3.70% | | | Spot price: Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/3 | 69.1 | 2.86% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3892.0 | - 1.32% | | | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 782.0 | - 0.13% | | Chemical industry | Spot price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 4749.5 | - 3.34% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 7425.0 | - 0.36% | | | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 1712.5 | 0.29% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 1262.5 | - 2.13% | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | Daily | - | 9/3 | 129.3 | - 0.55% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 9/3 | 113.1 | - 1.53% | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | Points | 9/3 | 92.9 | - 0.14% | [38]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Master Plan Part IV (MP4) emphasizes the integration of AI into physical products and services to create a safer, cleaner, and more enjoyable world, aiming for sustainable prosperity [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Mission and Principles - Tesla's new mission is to leverage AI to enhance human life and promote sustainability [2]. - Five guiding principles are outlined: 1. Growth is infinite, and resource scarcity can be addressed through technological innovation [2]. 2. Innovation removes limitations, exemplified by Tesla's battery technology transitioning the transport sector to renewable energy [3]. 3. Technology addresses real-world problems, including solar power, energy storage, and autonomous vehicles [3]. 4. Autonomous technology must benefit all humanity, focusing on improving quality of life and safety [4]. 5. Accessibility drives growth, aiming to enhance social equity and quality of life through affordable products and services [5]. Development Path - Tesla's approach involves gradual development from high-end products to more affordable options, creating a sustainable ecosystem encompassing transportation, energy generation, storage, and robotics [7]. Vision and Reception - MP4 presents a grand vision that appears more abstract compared to previous plans, focusing on the integration of hardware and software to accelerate the transition to sustainable prosperity [7][15]. - The reception on social media is mixed, with some users seeking more concrete details and others expressing skepticism about the vagueness of the plan [17][19]. Company Positioning - Tesla is redefining its identity, positioning itself not only as an automotive company but also as an AI and robotics company, with significant emphasis on its robotics initiative, Optimus [17][18]. - Despite the ambitious vision, the majority of Tesla's revenue still comes from electric vehicle sales, highlighting a potential gap between vision and current business reality [18]. Future Outlook - The release of MP4 suggests a need for Tesla to redefine its future goals, indicating challenges in achieving previously set objectives [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content in the provided document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on energy - chemical options, covering various sectors such as energy, polyolefins, polyesters, and alkalis. It analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors of different underlying assets and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][9]. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option - Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple energy - chemical option underlying futures are presented, including details like the latest price, price change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2510) is 484, with a price drop of 8 and a decline rate of 1.67% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume - open interest PCR data of various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.61 with a change of 0.08, and the open interest PCR is 0.77 with a change of 0.06 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 26.005, and the weighted implied volatility is 29.16 with a change of 1.62 [7]. 3.3 Strategy and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Class Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamentals are healthy with OPEC's supply restraint. The market shows a short - term upward resistance and decline. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - Class Options - **Methanol**: The import volume increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is decreasing. The market shows a wide - range weak oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - Class Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory shows a mixed trend. The market is weak. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.4 Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The tire production capacity utilization rate shows different trends. The market is short - term weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.3.5 Polyester - Class Options - **PTA**: The inventory is decreasing, and the downstream load is rising. The market shows a rebound resistance and decline. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.3.6 Alkali - Class Options - **Caustic Soda**: The production capacity utilization rate decreases in most regions. The market shows an oscillatory trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is decreasing. The market shows an oscillatory trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - The port inventory increases, and the enterprise inventory is under pressure. The market shows a low - level oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

Group 1 - The event commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War was held at Tiananmen Square, highlighting the importance of peace and national pride [1] - Representatives expressed their commitment to carry forward the great spirit of the Anti-Japanese War and contribute to national rejuvenation and development [1] - The emotional responses from attendees, including descendants of war heroes, emphasized the significance of historical remembrance and national pride [1] Group 2 - The first appearance of military units such as the military aerospace, cyber space, and information support units at the parade underscored the importance of safeguarding national sovereignty and security [2] - Industry leaders, such as the chairman of a battery technology company, emphasized the need for self-reliance in critical core technologies, particularly in the chip and energy sectors [2] - Educators highlighted the event as a profound lesson in patriotism, aiming to integrate historical lessons into modern education for the youth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 17 products experiencing price increases, 28 seeing declines, and 5 remaining stable in late August 2025 compared to mid-August 2025 [1]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) decreased by 42.8 yuan to 3218.2 yuan, a drop of 1.3% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) fell by 48.9 yuan to 3356.5 yuan, down 1.4% - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) decreased by 15.5 yuan to 3525.8 yuan, a decline of 0.4% - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) dropped by 37.4 yuan to 3444.9 yuan, down 1.1% - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) fell by 10.0 yuan to 4162.5 yuan, a decrease of 0.2% - Angle steel (5) decreased by 17.1 yuan to 3531.4 yuan, down 0.5% [3]. 2. Non-Ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) increased by 59.6 yuan to 79237.1 yuan, up 0.1% - Aluminum ingot (A00) rose by 107.6 yuan to 20741.4 yuan, an increase of 0.5% - Lead ingot (1) increased by 38.8 yuan to 16735.7 yuan, up 0.2% - Zinc ingot (0) decreased by 201.3 yuan to 22200.0 yuan, down 0.9% [3]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) fell by 1.2 yuan to 717.2 yuan, a decrease of 0.2% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) increased by 26.4 yuan to 896.1 yuan, up 3.0% - Methanol (first grade) decreased by 37.2 yuan to 2228.8 yuan, down 1.6% - Pure benzene (industrial grade) fell by 90.7 yuan to 6047.6 yuan, down 1.5% - Styrene (first grade) decreased by 7.7 yuan to 7277.9 yuan, down 0.1% - Polyethylene (LLDPE) increased by 24.9 yuan to 7467.6 yuan, up 0.3% - Polypropylene (fiber grade) decreased by 56.1 yuan to 6953.1 yuan, down 0.8% - Polyvinyl chloride (SG5) fell by 67.0 yuan to 4809.5 yuan, down 1.4% - Styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) increased by 118.4 yuan to 11697.6 yuan, up 1.0% - Polyester filament (POY150D/48F) rose by 108.9 yuan to 6871.4 yuan, up 1.6% [3]. 4. Oil and Natural Gas - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 90.7 yuan to 3951.6 yuan, down 2.2% - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) increased by 67.0 yuan to 4433.8 yuan, up 1.5% - Gasoline (95 National VI) fell by 40.2 yuan to 8469.3 yuan, down 0.5% - Gasoline (92 National VI) decreased by 43.8 yuan to 8192.8 yuan, down 0.5% - Diesel (0 National VI) fell by 37.5 yuan to 7047.8 yuan, down 0.5% - Paraffin (58 half) remained unchanged at 7672.5 yuan [3]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) decreased by 17.0 yuan to 853.0 yuan, down 2.0% - Common mixed coal (4500 kcal) fell by 7.1 yuan to 557.4 yuan, down 1.3% - Shanxi large mixed coal (5000 kcal) decreased by 4.2 yuan to 625.3 yuan, down 0.7% - Shanxi superior mixed coal (5500 kcal) increased by 6.6 yuan to 701.7 yuan, up 0.9% - Datong mixed coal (5800 kcal) rose by 6.3 yuan to 739.7 yuan, up 0.9% - Coking coal (main coking coal) remained unchanged at 1425.0 yuan - Coke (quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke) increased by 61.6 yuan to 1439.3 yuan, up 4.5% [3]. 6. Non-Metallic Building Materials - Ordinary Portland cement (P.O 42.5 bagged) decreased by 2.6 yuan to 346.0 yuan, down 0.7% - Ordinary Portland cement (P.O 42.5 bulk) increased by 0.4 yuan to 272.8 yuan, up 0.1% - Float glass (4.8/5mm) fell by 25.4 yuan to 1190.8 yuan, down 2.1% [3]. 7. Agricultural Products - Rice (glutinous rice) remained unchanged at 4037.0 yuan - Wheat (national standard grade three) decreased by 4.9 yuan to 2420.7 yuan, down 0.2% - Corn (yellow corn grade two) fell by 16.8 yuan to 2300.9 yuan, down 0.7% - Cotton (lint, white cotton grade three) increased by 141.9 yuan to 14756.3 yuan, up 1.0% - Live pigs (external three yuan) decreased by 0.1 yuan to 13.7 yuan per kilogram, down 0.7% - Soybeans (yellow soybeans) fell by 20.4 yuan to 4422.7 yuan, down 0.5% - Soybean meal (crude protein content ≥43%) increased by 1.8 yuan to 3051.1 yuan, up 0.1% - Peanuts (oil peanuts) decreased by 2.4 yuan to 7564.3 yuan, unchanged [4]. 8. Agricultural Production Materials - Urea (medium and small particles) decreased by 6.3 yuan to 1759.9 yuan, down 0.4% - Compound fertilizer (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content 45%) remained unchanged at 3180.0 yuan - Pesticides (glyphosate, 95% raw material) increased by 110.7 yuan to 27085.7 yuan, up 0.4% [4]. 9. Forest Products - Natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) increased by 128.0 yuan to 14790.5 yuan, up 0.9% - Pulp (imported needle leaf pulp) decreased by 90.3 yuan to 5677.6 yuan, down 1.6% - Corrugated paper (AA grade 120g) increased by 63.8 yuan to 2704.5 yuan, up 2.4% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The labor market in the US is showing signs of weakness, with the number of job openings in July lower than expected, which has led to an increase in market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar index. - The A - share market had a significant correction on September 3, and due to the possible phased withdrawal of funds, it is recommended to shift from a unilateral long - strategy to a hedging strategy. - The bond market showed a relatively strong performance at the beginning of September, but the upside space is limited, and long - position holders are advised to hold but be cautious about chasing the market higher. - The US soybean harvest is basically certain this year, but concerns about US soybean exports have resurfaced due to the stagnant Chinese purchases. - OPEC + is considering increasing production again, which has led to concerns in the market and a significant drop in oil prices. - The container shipping market still faces significant over - capacity pressure, and the downward trend of freight rates remains unchanged. [1][2][3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed officials' statements show that the labor market has a downward risk, and the decline in job openings in July has strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Gold prices rose to a record high and then narrowed their gains. It is recommended to wait for the US non - farm payrolls report in August, as gold price fluctuations will increase. [13][15][16] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed Governor Waller supports starting the rate - cut cycle in two weeks. The number of job openings in the US in July was lower than expected, indicating a weakening labor market, which led to a decline in the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will decline in the short term. [17][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining, and prices are rising in various regions. The decline in job openings has made the Fed's case for a rate cut in September more compelling. Under the expectation of a rate cut, the US stock market is expected to remain volatile and strong. [20][22][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Multiple provinces have raised the minimum wage standard this year. The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting. The A - share market had a significant correction on September 3, and it is recommended to shift from a unilateral long - strategy to a hedging strategy. [24][26][27] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The stock index has been adjusting continuously, and the bond market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended that long - position holders continue to hold but not chase the market higher after the price increase. [28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Allendale predicts that the US soybean yield per acre in 2025 will be 53.28 bushels, and the US soybean harvest is basically certain this year. However, Chinese purchases of US soybeans have remained stagnant, and concerns about US soybean exports have resurfaced. It is recommended to continue to monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the development of Sino - US relations. [30][32][33] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Market institutions generally expect that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will continue to accumulate in August. The main variable lies in domestic consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the final MPOB data. [34] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - More than 4,500 plots of land across the country plan to use special bond funds for land acquisition. The preliminary statistics show that the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 3% year - on - year in August. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the near future. [35][36][37] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory and operating rate of starch enterprises have both declined. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the difference between futures and rice prices remains low. It is expected that the further weakening space is limited. [38][39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory at the northern ports has continued to decline and is lower than that in 2023. However, due to the different inventory distribution structure in the industrial chain, it is not a seller - favorable market. It is recommended to pay attention to new short - selling opportunities on rallies. [39][40] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production area sales data in August are bearish. Affected by Brazil's strong production and supply, ICE raw sugar remains weak. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips around the expected cost of new sugar in the next season. [44][45] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports was weakly stable on September 3. After the end of the environmental protection impact, there may be pressure on upstream enterprises to sell off their goods, but considering the expected anti - involution policy, the overall coal price is expected to have support around 750 yuan. [46] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The sales of new energy vehicles in August showed a significant month - on - month increase. After the end of the parade, northern steel mills are expected to resume production, and short - term iron ore prices are expected to be strong, but if the demand continues to weaken, the price may decline after a short - term stabilization. [47] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei market has slightly declined. The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal. It is recommended to wait and see and not blindly chase the market higher, and focus on the weather in the producing areas and subsequent on - the - spot research. [48][49] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The average weight of pigs for slaughter continues to decline. The short - term fundamentals may lack a strong driving force, and it is recommended to take a short - term oscillatory view and continue to hold the long - term reverse spread structure. [50][51] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly in the first half of 2025. The polysilicon spot price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The component price is expected to rise, but the terminal demand may decline. It is recommended to consider the cost - performance of betting on subsequent policies when the futures price falls below the spot price. [52][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The market share of granular silicon of GCL Technology reached 24.32% in the first half of the year. The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is slower than expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the resumption progress and look for trading opportunities in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. [56][57][58] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a weak trend, and there are rumors of Russian lead imports in the domestic market. The supply of recycled lead may tighten in September, and the demand may improve marginally. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of long - domestic and short - overseas arbitrage. [59] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market shows a short - term strengthening trend, which drives the Shanghai zinc market to be relatively strong. The global visible inventory has been declining, and the domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunity, and maintain the positive spread arbitrage idea before the overseas inventory bottoms out. [60] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chuanneng Power's lithium salt project has successfully produced battery - grade lithium carbonate products. The export of Chilean lithium carbonate decreased by 19.2% month - on - month in August. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the inventory reduction cycle and the strengthening of the basis, as well as the positive spread arbitrage opportunity. [61][63] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. There are uncertainties in the supply side due to large - scale demonstrations in Jakarta. The price of nickel ore is unexpectedly firm, and the price of nickel iron is expected to be strong in the future. It is recommended to lay out long positions at the lower end of the range. [64][65][66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some PDH and PP devices have maintenance plans. The price of the Panama Canal's new lock auction has risen. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to OPEC +'s decision on production increase this weekend. [67][68][69] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory in the US increased slightly. OPEC + is considering increasing production again, which may put pressure on oil prices. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. [70][71][72] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased slightly. The supply pressure is expected to continue, and the demand is currently weak. Although the agricultural demand is expected to improve marginally in the autumn, the market sentiment is cautious, and attention should be paid to the downward risk after the export game fades. [73][74] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price continued to decline. The domestic PX load changed little, and the overseas PX load increased marginally. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage opportunity. [75][76] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price declined, and the demand needs further observation. The supply side has more maintenance recently, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory and weak adjustment. [77][78][79] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene production enterprises increased. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure may slow down marginally, but the weak expectation in Q4 and the potential over - inventory problem will still suppress the valuation of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain. [80][82] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable, with sufficient supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [83][84][85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only a few prices rising slightly. The pulp market is expected to be in a weak oscillatory trend. [86][87] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder was stable with a slight decline, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The fundamentals of PVC are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited. [88][89] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly stable, with partial minor adjustments. Some large factories' devices have changed, and there are still new production capacity plans in the fourth quarter. The downstream demand is gradually moving into the off - season. [90][91] 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area was generally weak, with the futures price oscillating. The supply and demand situation is weak and stable, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances. [92][93] 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The market sentiment was weak, and the demand has not improved substantially. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the long - short side and focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens. [94][95] 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The EU is considering postponing the implementation of the marine fuel tax for 10 years. The container shipping market still faces significant over - capacity pressure, and the downward trend of freight rates remains unchanged. It is recommended to take an oscillatory view in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the emotional increase in October and the long - buying value after the decline in December. [96][97]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has attracted significant attention from global investors, with net inflows from southbound funds reaching 100.573 billion HKD as of September 3, marking the highest annual level since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [1] - Since July 2023, southbound funds have recorded 27 consecutive months of net inflows, with nearly 60% of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks seeing an increase in shareholding [3] - According to a report by China Merchants Securities, the Hong Kong market is undergoing a destocking cycle, with upstream industries continuing to destock while midstream and downstream sectors have entered a restocking phase [3] Group 2 - The new economy sectors are entering a sustained restocking phase, while the old economy is still experiencing a double-digit contraction in supply [3] - By industry, information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare are in a "proactive restocking" phase with favorable supply-demand dynamics, while energy, utilities, and real estate are in a "proactive destocking" phase at the cycle bottom [3] - China Merchants Securities suggests that investors focusing on fundamentals should pay attention to investment opportunities in technology growth stocks, as companies in the new economy with strong growth potential and weak ties to the Chinese macroeconomy reported better mid-year results [3]

Group 1 - Citi has a bullish outlook for copper, predicting prices will exceed $11,000 per ton by the end of 2026 [1] - The bank has raised its long-term aluminum price forecast from $3,000 per ton to $3,500 per ton by 2027 [1] - Silver prices are expected to rise to $43 per ounce in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Citi maintains its Henry Hub natural gas price target at $3.8 per million British thermal units for the next 0-3 months [1] - The average price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2026 has been slightly lowered from $65 per barrel to $62 per barrel [1] Group 3 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [1] - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is collaborating with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [1]