Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on alumina [2] Core Viewpoints - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Category | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3138 | 3036 | -102 | yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3263 | 3222 | -41 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 134 | 237 | 103 | yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 370 | 362 | -8 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -24.60 | 0.10 | 24.7 | yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 77746 | 97829 | 20083 | tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] Market Outlook - Last week, both domestic and imported ores were relatively stable. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments. Currently, the bauxite inventory at domestic ports is sufficient, and the supply of imported ore in the short term is expected to be stable [2][7] - On the supply side, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South has not resumed, and new roasting capacity entered maintenance last week, with a slight decline in the operating capacity [2][7] - On the consumption side, when the alumina price declined, electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased their spot replenishment purchases slightly, but due to the stable operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum, the increase in demand was limited [2][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Industry News - According to Aladdin (ALD) research, the freight rate of Cape-type ships on the Guinea-China route increased significantly this week, rising by 1.5 US dollars/ton to 25 US dollars/ton [8] - The Natural Resources Department of Shanxi Province recently released the review result announcement of the preliminary design of the 300,000-ton/year underground mining expansion project of Loufan Bauxite Mine of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, which aims to increase the current production scale from 240,000 tons/year to 300,000 tons/year [8] - On August 22, 2025, Emirates Global Aluminium announced that its subsidiary, Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), would completely terminate all activities in Guinea due to the illegal expropriation of its assets by the Republic of Guinea [8] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month-to-month spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost and profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][13][15][18][20][23]

Group 1: Innovation New Materials - The company is actively promoting a globalization strategy, planning to invest up to $209 million in the Saudi Red Sea aluminum industry chain project by 2025, with an expected annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 500,000 tons of aluminum processing products [1] - As of July 2025, the company has completed ODI filing, with a 43.93% year-on-year increase in profile sales to 77,200 tons and a 13.83% increase in aluminum rod and cable sales to 501,300 tons in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company is the largest producer of aluminum alloy cable materials in China, with over 70% of the ultra-high voltage wires for the national West-East Power Transmission project sourced from its products [1] Group 2: Chip Source Micro - The company expects to exceed its annual order signing target for front-end chemical cleaning products, with major clients already approved for bulk orders of high-end machines [2] - The new generation of front-end coating and developing machines is progressing well, with client validation expected in the second half of the year and performance to be showcased next year [2] - The company anticipates a high expense ratio in 2025 due to increased R&D investments, with a gradual decrease expected from 2026 as revenue releases and expense controls take effect [2] Group 3: Sanhua Intelligent Control - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.91%, and a net profit of 2.11 billion yuan, up 39.31% year-on-year [3] - The revenue from the refrigeration and air conditioning components business reached 10.389 billion yuan, growing by 25.49% due to rising global temperature control demand and the expansion of heat pump technology into data centers and energy storage [3] - The company is establishing a robotics division focused on electromechanical actuators and is advancing mass production, while also optimizing its customer structure by covering major automotive manufacturers [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's operating performance shows steady growth despite a challenging market environment, achieving record highs in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Aluminum reported revenue of approximately 1164 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 5% [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.71 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.81% year-on-year [1][4]. - The operating cash flow reached 142.65 billion yuan, marking the best level for the same period since the company's establishment [1][12]. Production and Supply Chain - The production of key products such as alumina, primary aluminum, and fine alumina all saw year-on-year growth [1]. - The self-sufficiency rate of alumina ore reached a five-year high, increasing by 6 percentage points since the beginning of the year [2]. - The production volumes for alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased by 4.88% and 9.37% respectively compared to the previous year [6]. Debt and Financial Health - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 46.88% by the end of June 2025, continuing a downward trend [2][12]. - Financial expenses for the first half of 2025 were 11.89 billion yuan, marking a continued decline [2][12]. Dividend Distribution - China Aluminum plans to distribute a cash dividend of 21.10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, which accounts for approximately 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3][13]. Strategic Focus and Innovation - The company is focusing on resource security, technological innovation, and high-end materials to enhance its competitive edge [6][9]. - Significant investments in research and development have been made, with R&D expenditures from 2021 to 2024 being 24.93 billion yuan, 66.66 billion yuan, 54.44 billion yuan, and 31.70 billion yuan respectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum's half-year report for 2025 shows significant growth in revenue and profit, driven by strong performance in the aviation sector and international expansion efforts [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 17.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.25% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.625 billion yuan, up 19.95% year-on-year [3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.611 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.04% [3] Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share (including tax), totaling 465 million yuan (including tax) [4][23]. Growth Drivers - Increased production and sales of alumina in Indonesia, along with higher overseas alumina prices and rising average aluminum ingot prices, contributed to revenue and profit growth [5]. International Expansion - Nanshan Aluminum International successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 25, 2025, raising over 2 billion HKD for the expansion of its alumina production base in Indonesia [6]. Production Capacity and Technology - The alumina project in Indonesia has achieved significant production capacity, with 2 million tons currently operational and plans for an additional 1 million tons [9]. - The company is also investing in a 20,000-ton caustic soda and 16,500-ton epoxy chloropropane project in Indonesia [10]. Sustainability Initiatives - Nanshan Aluminum is investing in high-quality recycled aluminum projects to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions [11][13]. - The company has received various ESG awards and improved its MSCI ESG rating to "BBB" [11][27]. Aviation and Automotive Sectors - Nanshan Aluminum is a key supplier for major aircraft manufacturers, including Boeing and Airbus, and is involved in the production of critical components for the C919 aircraft [15]. - The company maintains strong partnerships with leading automotive brands, ensuring stable growth in the automotive aluminum market [17]. Industry Positioning - Nanshan Aluminum has established a comprehensive aluminum processing industry chain, focusing on high-value-added products such as automotive and aviation aluminum [20][22].

Group 1: Industry Development - The provincial government is focusing on developing county-level industries to enhance local economic growth, particularly in Sanmenxia City [3] - Le's Tongren Sanmenxia Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is highlighted as a high-tech enterprise integrating traditional Chinese medicine cultivation, research, production, and sales [3] - Emphasis is placed on leveraging local medicinal materials and promoting collaborative innovation in traditional Chinese medicine and modern science [3] Group 2: Environmental Protection - A recent provincial meeting addressed the need for enhanced ecological environment protection measures [4] - Liu Ning emphasized the importance of ecological restoration in mining areas as part of the political responsibility to implement Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thoughts [4] - The focus is on a systematic approach to pollution control, including source reduction, process control, and end treatment [4] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The Daxian Pit Courtyard is recognized as a national intangible cultural heritage, with efforts to protect and develop it scientifically [6] - There is a call to integrate local customs and culture into tourism development, aiming to create a pillar industry from cultural tourism [6] - The government aims to promote rural revitalization through urban-rural integration and the development of a modern industrial system [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly this week, reaching a high of 20,555 yuan/ton. As the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, downstream demand may see a slight recovery, but the degree of demand improvement remains to be further observed. The current industry operating rate shows a divergence. Large enterprises have relatively abundant orders and a slightly increased operating rate, while small and medium-sized enterprises face more severe problems such as raw material shortages and production losses, with some reduction or suspension of production. In addition, the policy of canceling tax rebates has been fermenting this week, and the market is full of wait-and-see sentiment. Some enterprises are considering adopting a more cautious business strategy and plan to reduce or suspend production to avoid the risks of policy uncertainty. Overall, both cost support and policy pressure strongly support the price of recycled aluminum, and the price of cast aluminum alloy may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - As of August 29, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories + social inventory increased by 0.34 million tons from the previous week to 11.58 million tons, and the inventory remains at a high level. In the upstream, the amount of waste generated at the end in August was still lower than expected, and the supply of waste aluminum raw materials was limited. In the downstream, in the fourth week of August (August 18 - August 24), domestic automobile sales were 473,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of nearly 10%, and fuel vehicles performed better than new energy vehicles. Overall, the effect of the trade-in policy is prominent, and the fourth batch of funds will be released as planned in October, which will help stabilize consumer confidence and continuously boost automobile consumption. With the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October", the growth of automobile sales is expected to improve month-on-month [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side Waste Aluminum - Waste aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium-to-high level in history [10]. - Waste aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year-on-year growth rate. In July 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 16.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.68%, and the cumulative import was 117.27 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.35% [14]. - The scrap-to-primary aluminum price difference shows an oscillating trend [19]. Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 converged significantly [26]. - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy weakened, showing certain seasonal patterns [31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the monthly operating rate continued to rise [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break-even line [38]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy decreased, while the social inventory continued to increase [43]. - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [47]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are provided. The production shows certain fluctuations, and the factory inventory also varies by region [50][52]. Demand Side Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel vehicles declined, which was transmitted to the die-casting consumption [57].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) announced a share buyback program, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value through the repurchase of shares [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Details - As of August 31, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 23.7052 million shares, which represents 0.51% of the total share capital [1] - The highest transaction price during the buyback was 9.79 CNY per share, while the lowest was 7.41 CNY per share [1] - The total amount of funds utilized for the buyback is approximately 200 million CNY [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [4][6]. Core Views - The company has seen an increase in both the volume and price of electrolytic aluminum, with expectations for new production capacity to come online [2][3]. - The integrated layout of the company enhances its raw material supply capabilities, which is expected to stabilize performance [3]. - The company is strategically expanding its operations in Indonesia and Guinea to secure resource supply and reduce costs [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Tianshan Aluminum reported revenue of 15.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 2.8% [2]. - The gross profit margin for electrolytic aluminum was 23.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for alumina decreased by 8.6 percentage points to 14.6% [2]. Production Capacity and Cost Structure - The current electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 1.2 million tons, with an actual annual output of approximately 1.16 million tons [2]. - The company is progressing with the construction of an additional 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, expected to be released in 2026 [3]. - The company benefits from low energy costs due to its location in Xinjiang, where coal resources are abundant, enhancing its cost advantage [3]. Future Outlook - The company is planning to invest 1.556 billion USD in a new 2 million tons alumina production line in Indonesia, with the first phase of 1 million tons already receiving environmental approval [3]. - The company has secured a 50% stake in Elite Mining Guinea S.A. and exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite, with a planned annual capacity of 5-6 million tons [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.71 billion yuan, 5.74 billion yuan, and 6.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 8, and 7 [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum's performance in H1 2025 was impacted by a decline in alumina prices, despite a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit. The company is making steady progress on its projects in Indonesia, which are expected to drive future growth [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Nanshan Aluminum achieved revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 1.8% year-on-year and a significant net profit drop of 31.1% year-on-year, primarily due to falling alumina prices [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.4 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 460 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 17.7% [2]. Price and Production Insights - Nanshan Aluminum's current electrolytic aluminum capacity is 680,000 tons, and alumina capacity is 3.4 million tons, with 1.4 million tons in China and 2 million tons in Indonesia. In H1 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be around 340,000 tons [3]. - The average aluminum price in H1 2025 was 20,321 yuan per ton, up 2.7% year-on-year, while the alumina price in Shandong was 3,416 yuan per ton, down 0.4% year-on-year [3]. Project Development - The first phase of the 2 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 1 million tons, was commissioned in H1 2025, and the second phase is progressing as planned. Additionally, the company is constructing a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum and a 260,000-ton carbon project in Indonesia [3][4]. - Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian operations are set to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which will facilitate further investment and growth in the region [4]. Market Opportunities - The rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market presents significant demand for automotive plates, with Nanshan Aluminum positioned as a leader in this sector. The company has partially commissioned a 200,000-ton capacity for automotive plates, which is expected to benefit from increasing demand [4]. Profit Forecasts - Analysts project Nanshan Aluminum's net profit for 2025 to be approximately 4.93 billion yuan, with estimates for 2026 and 2027 at 5.20 billion yuan and 5.68 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 10x, 9x, and 8x [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 4.06 yuan [7]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 showed a revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.63 billion yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 1.8% year-on-year and a significant net profit drop of 31.1% year-on-year, primarily due to falling alumina prices [1][2]. - The company is progressing steadily with its Indonesian projects, including the commissioning of the first phase of a 1 million-ton alumina capacity and ongoing construction of additional capacities [3][4]. - The growth potential in the automotive aluminum sheet market is highlighted, with expectations of increased demand due to stricter energy consumption requirements and the company's leading position in this segment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.0%. The Q2 2025 results showed a revenue of 8.29 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.92 billion yuan, down 31.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 28.5%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.2%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a gross margin drop to 23.7%, down 9.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. Project Development - The Indonesian alumina project has a total capacity of 2 million tons, with the first phase of 1 million tons already in production. The second phase is progressing as planned, alongside the construction of a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum and 260,000-ton carbon product capacity [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the automotive aluminum sheet market, driven by increasing demand for lightweight materials. The company is positioned to benefit from this trend, with part of its 200,000-ton capacity already in production [4]. - The company plans to invest 6.06 billion yuan in Indonesia for the construction of additional capacities, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects in the region [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.93 billion yuan in 2025, 5.20 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.68 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10x, 9x, and 8x respectively [4][6].