尿素日报 | 2025-05-30 印度新一轮尿素招标发布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-05-29，尿素主力收盘1784元/吨（-6）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1880元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1900元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差：96 元/吨（+6）；河南基差：76元/吨（+6）；江苏基差：116元/吨（+6）；尿素生产利润413元/吨（+0），出口利润491 元/吨（-15）。 供应端：截至2025-05-29，企业产能利用率89.83%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为98.06 万吨（+6.32），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-05-29，复合肥产能利用率40.09%（+2.52%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.98%（-3.51%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.88日（-0.06）。 印度新一轮尿素招标发布，国内尿素出口由于尚处于法检阶段，暂未有大量集港需求，国内尿素参与可能性较低。 上游煤制尿素与天然气制尿素开工率均有提升，产量依旧高位运行，新增产能持续释放，尿素厂内库存小 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the urea industry will see both supply and demand remain strong, with prices expected to fluctuate widely. Supply will be abundant, and demand will have certain support in the first half - month but may slow down in the second half - month. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, with a bottom support [2][3][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In May, the domestic urea supply was abundant, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. The price was firm in the first half - month due to export news and demand stimulation, and then declined as it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals [7][9]. - On the demand side, speculative demand was concentrated in the first half - month, and then demand from compound fertilizer plants and agricultural sectors weakened. The futures price fluctuated widely, and the spot price declined. By the end of May, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 910,000 tons, a 16.40% increase from the previous week [13][15]. Fundamental Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - In May, the domestic urea daily output reached a historical high of 206,000 tons, with an average daily output of 202,200 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to April [18]. - In 2025, the urea industry's new production capacity is 4 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.87%. In June, a new urea device will be added [21][22]. - In June, the raw coal price is expected to stabilize. The supply is relatively abundant, the power plant inventory is high, and the chemical coal demand is fair [26][28]. - In June, the cash - flow profit of domestic urea enterprises will remain fair. With the stable coal price, the bottom of the urea ex - factory price is supported [30]. - In June, the domestic urea output will continue to rise, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. Six issues need to be focused on, such as the compound fertilizer plant's resumption of high - level operation, Indian tender dynamics, inventory changes, policy influence, etc. [38][41]. - The urea enterprise inventory first increased and then decreased. As of May 21, 2025, the total inventory was 917,400 tons, an increase from the previous week [42]. Demand - In June, domestic rigid demand will still be released to some extent. The compound fertilizer plant's operating rate in the Central Plains will seasonally increase, and the export will also support the price. However, the demand from melamine and plywood factories is general. In late June, the overall demand will enter a weak period [3][44]. - The compound fertilizer plant's operating rate is expected to be high in the first half of June and low in the second half. The high - nitrogen fertilizer production cycle is from November to May - June, and the high - phosphate fertilizer is for autumn crops [46]. - In June, the operating rates of melamine and plywood factories will further decline. The melamine market price may remain stable with a downward trend in the short term [56][61]. - Export policy has been relaxed. With a large price difference between domestic and international markets, exports will support the domestic price. Attention should be paid to international price trends and domestic export volumes [67][70]. - The price - comparison advantage of urea has increased, and the direct agricultural application volume is expected to rise [77]. - The direct agricultural application volume of urea has increased. In 2025, the national agricultural demand will continue to increase steadily, with increased demand for urea from wheat and corn, and in regions like Xinjiang and Northeast China [80][86]. May Market Outlook - Supply: In June, the urea industry profit will remain stable, the output will continue to rise, and the daily output is expected to remain above 200,000 tons [87]. - Demand: In June, rigid demand will be released, the compound fertilizer plant's operating rate will increase seasonally, and exports will support the price. However, in late June, the demand will weaken. Two issues need to be focused on regarding export policies [88]. - Market outlook: In June, new devices will continue to be put into production. In the first half - month, demand will support the price, and exports will increase. In late June, the price is expected to decline, but there is bottom support. The futures price of 09 contract is expected to rise first and then fall. Attention should be paid to macro - policies [89][90][91]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: There is certain bottom support [4]. - Arbitrage: Build long positions in the 9 - 1 spread at low prices [4]. - Options: Wait for the futures price to fall and sell the put option 2509 - P - 1720 [4].

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly declined, with watermelon, citrus, and banana decreasing by 6.7%, 1.9%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.13 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with eggplant, green beans, and cucumber decreasing by 5.5%, 3.8%, and 3.1% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.60 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.5%, while lamb remained stable and beef increased by 0.2% [1] - Wholesale prices of grain and oil showed a stable increase, with flour, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil rising by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices slightly increased, with carp, crucian carp, and grass carp rising by 1.5%, 1.5%, and 1.1% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel dropping by 2.2%, 2.1%, and 1.7% respectively [2] - Rubber prices showed a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively [2] - Coal prices experienced minor decreases, with coking coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and thermal coal priced at 962 yuan, 1165 yuan, and 753 yuan per ton, down by 0.9%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Steel prices generally decreased, with rebar, ordinary high-speed wire rod, and channel steel priced at 3451 yuan, 3659 yuan, and 3666 yuan per ton, all down by 0.4% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices mainly declined, with zinc and copper decreasing by 0.7% and 0.6%, while aluminum increased by 0.3% [2] - Fertilizer prices slightly receded, with urea and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with methanol and polypropylene decreasing by 1.6% and 0.4%, while sulfuric acid remained stable and soda ash increased by 0.3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Liu Guo Chemical plans to raise up to 800 million yuan through a private placement to invest in a 280,000 tons/year battery-grade refined phosphoric acid project, with a total investment of 1.194 billion yuan and a payback period of 6.55 years [1][9]. Company Overview - Liu Guo Chemical primarily engages in the production and sales of phosphate fertilizers and fine chemical products, being one of the largest integrated manufacturers in East China [5]. - The company has production capacities of 450,000 tons/year for monoammonium phosphate, 640,000 tons/year for diammonium phosphate, 300,000 tons/year for urea, and 1,550,000 tons/year for compound fertilizers [5]. Industry Context - Since 2014, China's phosphate fertilizer usage has declined from 8.4534 million tons to 5.3630 million tons in 2023, reaching a recent low due to government policies promoting modern agriculture and controlling traditional fertilizer usage [5]. - Phosphate and compound fertilizers are the main revenue sources for the company, generating sales revenues of 2.680 billion yuan and 2.183 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 42.88% and 34.93% of total revenue as of December 31, 2024 [5]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue has continuously declined from 7.549 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.251 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company has also decreased significantly from 237 million yuan in 2021 to 2.3 million yuan in 2023, with a slight recovery to 2.5 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The gross profit margin fell from 14.85% in 2021 to 8.05% in 2023, with a minor recovery to 9.36% in 2024 [6]. Strategic Shift - In response to ongoing pressures in the traditional fertilizer business, the company is transitioning towards high-value sectors, specifically producing and selling battery-grade refined phosphoric acid [8]. - The planned fundraising will significantly enhance the company's refined phosphoric acid production capacity, aligning with the growing demand from the rapidly developing electric vehicle and energy storage industries [9]. Market Dynamics - The refined phosphoric acid is a core raw material for lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are experiencing high growth in demand [9]. - However, the industry faces challenges with an oversupply of lithium iron phosphate battery capacity, leading to project terminations by other companies in the sector [10].

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank's report on commodity cycles post-COVID-19 indicates a significant shift in the frequency and volatility of commodity price cycles, suggesting a new era in commodity market dynamics [1][42]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Over the past 55 years, 27 types of commodities have experienced an average of 14 turning points, approximately every four years [37]. - The average duration of booms is 38 months, while recessions last an average of 52 months, indicating that recessions tend to last longer than booms [29][37]. - The average amplitude of price changes during booms and recessions is roughly similar, suggesting symmetrical price volatility [29][37]. Group 2: Historical Price Fluctuations - The study identifies three distinct periods of commodity price fluctuations: 1970-1985, 1986-2001, and 2002-2024, each characterized by different dynamics and influencing factors [8][12][41]. - The first period (1970-1985) was marked by significant volatility due to supply shocks, particularly in the energy market, with an average boom duration of 31 months and a longer recession period [8][12]. - The second period (1986-2001) exhibited more stability, with longer average durations for both booms (47 months) and recessions (56 months), attributed to technological advancements and market liberalization [12][41]. - The third period (2002 onwards) saw a resurgence in volatility driven by demand shocks from emerging markets, with shorter average durations for both booms (35 months) and recessions (46 months) [13][41]. Group 3: Post-Pandemic Commodity Behavior - Since 2020, the average duration of boom phases has decreased to 24 months, and recession durations have halved to 23 months, indicating a significant compression of the commodity cycle [16][42]. - The amplitude of price increases during booms has intensified, averaging 113%, while the severity of price declines during recessions has decreased to 79% [17][42]. - Various factors, including macroeconomic shocks, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related disruptions, have contributed to the observed deviations from historical commodity price patterns [17][19][42]. Group 4: Long-Term Trends and Structural Changes - The global energy transition is driving sustained demand for key minerals like lithium, copper, and nickel, exerting upward pressure on their prices [19][20]. - Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are heightening supply risks, particularly for agricultural commodities, which remain highly sensitive to climate conditions [19][20]. - The slowdown of global integration has led to increased geopolitical fragmentation, marked by trade barriers and sanctions, which disrupt commodity markets and contribute to price volatility [20][42].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market on May 29, 2025, covering futures and spot markets, fundamentals, and related data analysis [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a weak state. Although there may be a phased boost in demand during the summer fertilizer season, the rebound space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by subsequent fertilizer - using conditions [1] Specific Content Summaries Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1794 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward during the session, and finally closed at 1784 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The trading volume decreased, with a decrease of 4320 lots in the position to 219438 lots. Among the top twenty major positions, the long position decreased by 6807 lots, and the short position decreased by 3088 lots [2] Spot Market - After the decline of the urea futures market yesterday, the market sentiment cooled down, and the transaction was relatively sluggish. However, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and no sales pressure. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1800 - 1830 yuan/ton [1][4] Fundamental Analysis Supply - On May 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 20.46 tons, remaining flat compared with yesterday. Some enterprises postponed their maintenance plans, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient. There may be local liquidity withdrawal problems with subsequent exports [1][9] Demand - Affected by the futures market, the market trading sentiment was weak. Agricultural dealers started to make small - scale fertilizer reserves. In North China, it was the wheat - harvesting period, and the corn - fertilizing period would follow after the wheat harvest. Compound fertilizer factories adjusted their production flexibly, with some regions increasing the operating rate and some producing according to sales, which supported the short - term strengthening of urea. After the fertilizer reserve period, the operating rate might decline steadily [1] Inventory - Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory mainly due to the weakening of the demand side. There might be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the agricultural demand recovered [1] Downstream Data - From May 23 to May 29, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points from last week [10] Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [7]

| 科 | | | | | | | 公司 | 公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 间 | 室 | 100% | 公司 | 司 | | | 公司 | 司 | | 55% | 51% | 科 | | | 室 | | | | | | | 股票代码：600470 公告编号：2025-035 股票简称：六国化工 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 安徽六国化工股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 关于组织机构 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The industrial and agricultural demand is tepid, and the enterprise inventory continues to increase. Some factory inventories are reserved for export as export factory inspections are carried out. The operating rates of coal - based and natural - gas - based urea production have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity, resulting in a loose market supply. The costs are stable as coal and natural gas prices change little. The urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to rise, leading to a month - on - month increase in port inventory. The downstream agricultural demand is growing steadily, with wheat fertilization demand ending in some areas and rice fertilization demand in the southern regions set to increase. The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On May 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,790 yuan/ton (-24). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,860 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,880 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (+20). The Shandong basis was 90 yuan/ton (+44), the Henan basis was 70 yuan/ton (+34), and the Jiangsu basis was 110 yuan/ton (+44) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of May 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.56% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 980,600 tons (+63,200), and the port sample inventory was 203,000 tons (+40,000) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 413 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 507 yuan/ton (+5). The upstream coal - based and natural - gas - based urea operating rates have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The urea export legal inspection information is clear, the urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to increase, with the port inventory rising month - on - month [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of May 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57% (-2.69%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.49% (-8.33%); the number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 5.88 days (-0.06). The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The port inventory has increased month - on - month due to the expected increase in export demand [1][2]

Meeting Details - The 21st meeting of the 8th Supervisory Board of Shenzhen Batian Ecological Engineering Co., Ltd. was held on May 28, 2025, both in person and via communication methods [1][2] - All three supervisors attended the meeting, and the procedures complied with relevant laws and regulations [1] Resolutions Passed - The Supervisory Board approved the proposal to grant stock options and restricted stocks under the 2025 Stock Option and Restricted Stock Incentive Plan [2] - The plan includes granting 20 million stock options to 166 eligible incentive objects at an exercise price of 10.63 yuan per option, and granting 3 million restricted stocks to 9 eligible incentive objects at a grant price of 5.32 yuan per share [2]

公司监事会根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）《中华 人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）《上市公司股权激励管理办法》（以 下简称"《管理办法》"）等有关法律、法规和规范性文件以及《深圳市芭田生态工 程股份有限公司章程》（以下简称"《公司章程》"）的规定，对获授股票期权/限制 性股票的激励对象名单进行审核，发表核查意见如下： 公司本次股票期权/限制性股票授予激励对象人员名单与公司 2025 年第一次临时 股东大会批准的 2025 年股票期权与限制性股票激励计划中规定的激励对象相符，具备 《公司法》《证券法》等法律、法规和规范性文件以及《公司章程》规定的任职资格， 符合《管理办法》规定的激励对象条件，符合《深圳市芭田生态工程股份有限公司 2025 年股票期权与限制性股票激励计划（草案）》及其摘要规定的激励对象范围，其作为 公司 2025 年股票期权与限制性股票激励计划激励对象的主体资格合法、有效。公司和 本激励计划授予的激励对象均未出现《管理办法》及本激励计划规定的不能授予或不 得成为激励对象的情形，本激励计划的激励对象获授股票期权/限制性股票的条件已成 就。 综上，监事会同意本次股票 ...