金融期货早评 宏观："十五五"首个中央一号文件公布 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。2）美联储理 事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止 100 个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的 表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需 保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。3）澳洲联储宣布加息 25 个基点至 3.85%，为 2023 年以来的首次加息，成为 2026 年首个加息的主要发达经济体央行。4）一位白宫官员表示， 美联储理事米兰已辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职。5）中央一号文件《中共中央国务院 关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》发布。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】2 月市场迎来关键变量，美联储主席提名人选的鹰派立场引发降 息延后预期，叠加英国经济韧性显现，英央行 5 月前降息概率显著下降，但该流动性调整 仅为短期预期修正，欧美货币宽松的宏观背景未变。从产业与政策维度看：战略矿产与新 能源产业链，受美国关键矿产储备政策、中国供给侧管控双重支撑，铜、稀土及碳酸锂、 多晶硅等新能源标的供需缺口长期存在；人工智能产业在政策与技术驱动下 ...

Group 1 - The European chemical industry has experienced a significant increase in plant closures, with capacity losses surging sixfold since 2022, totaling 37 million tons, which accounts for approximately 9% of the total capacity in Europe [1] - The report from Caixin Securities suggests focusing on three main investment themes: leading companies in the polyester industry benefiting from anti-involution policies, companies with strong presence in the western market and advanced overseas layouts in the civil explosives sector, and firms with technological and capacity advantages in specialty plastics like PEEK [1] - As of February 4, 2026, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.11%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Sankeshu (up 4.24%), Hongda Co. (up 3.13%), Hengli Petrochemical (up 1.98%), Jiangnan Chemical (up 1.84%), and Luxi Chemical (up 1.60%) [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Tianci Materials, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, Juhua Co., Baofeng Energy, Yuntianhua, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 44.82% of the index [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) is closely tracking the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with various off-market connections available [2]

This combination of scale, intellectual property, and global footprint positions DOW to outperform once the sector recovers. Historically beaten- down and overlooked stocks with durable competitive advantages, as value investors like Bruce Greenwald highlight, often present attractive entry points, and DOW exemplifies this thesis. The recent lows appear to offer investors a favorable risk/reward profile, as the market has largely discounted the company's underlying strengths and long-term growth potential. ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective rise on February 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.29% to 4067.74 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.19% to 14127.1 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.86% to 3324.89 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.54 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 40.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - A total of 4583 stocks rose while 514 stocks fell, indicating a significant market profit effect [1] Hot Stocks - The top ten popular stocks included Aerospace Development, Jieli Sockets, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Silver (core stock) Nonferrous Metals, Lioh Co., Zhejiang Wenlian, Hunan Gold, Hongbaoli, Zhongchao Holdings, and Hunan Silver [1][2] Aerospace Development - Aerospace Development benefits from strong policy support in the commercial aerospace sector, having completed the development and launch of multiple commercial satellites and achieved constellation networking operations [3] Jieli Sockets - Jieli Sockets' stock performance is driven by its deep involvement in commercial aerospace and deep-sea mooring sectors, receiving official certification from the Aerospace Science and Technology Institute as the exclusive supplier of key components for the recovery capture system [3] Tongling Nonferrous Metals - Tongling Nonferrous Metals is positively impacted by rising copper prices and a tight supply-demand balance, with LME copper inventories at a low level. The company is one of the largest copper smelting enterprises in China, producing over 400,000 tons annually [3] Silver Nonferrous Metals - The performance of Silver Nonferrous Metals is influenced by international silver price trends, driven by explosive growth in industrial demand, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors. The company has established a 1.5 billion yuan gold subsidiary, aligning with market interest in precious metals [3] Lioh Co. - Lioh Co. has a solid foundation in its dual business layout of "smart pumps and systems" and "digital marketing," with forward-looking applications in AI marketing and related fields [4][5] Zhejiang Wenlian - Zhejiang Wenlian benefits from optimized governance structure and precise business positioning, having completed rectification of related issues and received legal confirmation of governance compliance [5] Hunan Gold - Hunan Gold's stock performance is supported by improvements in its fundamentals and industry conditions, with recent announcements of major asset restructuring and performance forecasts amid rising international gold prices [5] Hongbaoli - Hongbaoli's core drivers stem from substantial improvements in its main business, focusing on the research and production of epoxy propylene derivatives, with recent projects entering trial production [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - The company discussed is **Yuegui Co., Ltd.** (粤桂股份), which operates in the basic chemical industry. Key Financial Projections - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a range of **4.43 to 5.03 billion CNY**, representing a year-on-year growth of **59.03% to 80.57%** [1] - The projected net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be between **4.45 to 5.04 billion CNY**, with a year-on-year increase of **57.86% to 78.84%** [1][2] Drivers of Performance - The substantial growth in profitability for 2025 is primarily attributed to the **increase in prices of ore-related products** [1][2] - The company is actively pursuing **cost reduction and efficiency enhancement** measures, which are contributing to improved operational efficiency [3] Strategic Initiatives - The dual drivers of **rising product prices** and ongoing **management reforms** are expected to lead to synchronized profit growth [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene glycol still has significant inventory accumulation pressure, with high domestic operating rates and expected moderately high import volumes from February to March. It is likely to experience substantial inventory accumulation during the downstream off - season around the Spring Festival [2][4]. - The previous cold wave narrative was unable to support the upward trend of ethylene glycol. The cold wave had no substantial impact on the devices, and the influence of cold waves on China's overall imports has diminished. Currently, the key exogenous variable is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [12]. - If the geopolitical issues ease, ethylene glycol will need to compress its valuation to reduce the high operating rate under the pressure of weak fundamentals [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Currently, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol remain weak - Ethylene glycol faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with high domestic operating rates, especially for coal - based plants with good profits. Iran and Kuwait have abundant supplies, Taiwan, China is shipping actively, and Saudi Arabia's production cuts will be reflected later. Import volumes from February to March are expected to be moderately high [4]. - Inventory is likely to increase to historical high levels during the Spring Festival downstream off - season. The inventory decline cycle is expected to start after the maintenance season in March and the restart of the polyester peak season, but the de - stocking intensity will be gentle until the ethylene glycol operating rate is substantially reduced [4] 3.2 The previous cold wave narrative was difficult to support, and the main focus is on the influence of Middle East geopolitics - The cold wave in Texas and Louisiana did not cause extremely low temperatures, only around - 5 degrees Celsius, far from the - 19 degrees Celsius in 2021 that led to the shutdown of chemical plants. So, it had no substantial impact on the devices, and the cold wave narrative ended quickly [12]. - Since the Sino - US tariff issue, the amount of ethylene glycol exported from the US to China has decreased significantly, and its exports have mostly been replaced by those from the Middle East and Taiwan, China. So, the influence of cold waves on China's imports has weakened [12]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is a key exogenous variable. As US exports decline, Saudi Arabia's exports to China have reached a relatively high level. Saudi and Kuwaiti exports are affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. If the geopolitical issues ease, ethylene glycol needs to compress its valuation to reduce the high operating rate [12]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二夜盘主力合约期货 | BZ2603 | 价格上涨 | 98 | 元至 | 6137 | 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 格 | 6065 | 元/吨（环比+75），山东地区现货价格 | 6118 | 元/吨（环比-17）。持仓方面， | 多头减少 | 1504 | 手至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported on the price changes of important production materials in the circulation market for late January 2026, indicating that 25 products saw price increases, 21 experienced declines, and 4 remained stable compared to mid-January 2026 [1]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary medium plates decreased by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [3]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper and aluminum ingots saw price drops of 0.9% and 0.3%, while zinc ingots increased by 0.6% [3]. - Chemical products like sulfuric acid and pure benzene experienced price increases of 1.3% and 7.7%, while caustic soda and methanol saw declines of 5.1% and 1.1% [3]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose by 4.2%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and diesel prices fell by 1.0% [3]. - Coal prices showed mixed results, with anthracite coal increasing by 0.3% and Shanxi mixed coal decreasing by 1.4% [3]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice and wheat prices increased by 0.2% and 0.3%, while soybean prices rose by 0.4% [4]. - In agricultural production materials, potassium fertilizer prices increased by 0.6%, while pesticide prices rose by 0.8% [4]. - The price of natural rubber increased by 1.5%, while imported pulp prices decreased by 2.1% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, and the long - term policy orientation is a slow - bull market. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm, and the strategy is mainly to buy on dips [4]. - The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - After the de - leveraging of precious metals, the pricing returns to the fundamentals. Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, aluminum prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise, zinc prices may return to the industrial logic, lead industry status is weak, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term but maintain an upward trend in the long term, lithium carbonate prices are supported by de - stocking in the off - season, alumina prices are recommended to wait and see, stainless steel prices are expected to rise, and casting aluminum alloy prices are supported in the short term [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26][28][30]. - The black building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with long - and short - term factors intertwined, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate, and coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [36][41]. - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and steadily in the short term [42][44]. - Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and are expected to wait for driving factors [47]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to production reduction and market information [49][51]. - Rubber is recommended for short - term trading, and oil prices are recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [56][58]. - Methanol prices are under pressure, urea is recommended to short on rallies, pure benzene and styrene can gradually take profits, PVC fundamentals are poor, ethylene glycol needs to reduce production to improve the situation, PTA should pay attention to the risk of processing fee callback and mid - term long opportunities, PX can follow the crude oil to go long on dips, polyethylene and polypropylene prices are affected by supply and demand and cost factors [60][62][64][66][68][70][73][75][77]. - For agricultural products, live pigs are recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to long - term support; eggs are recommended to short at high levels; protein meal prices may be bottoming out; for oils and fats, wait for a callback to go long; for sugar, wait for a rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest; for cotton, pay attention to low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [80][82][85][87][90][93]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US plans a $12 billion mineral reserve program, SpaceX acquires xAI, and relevant policies promote AI in agriculture and future industries. Gold and silver spot prices rebound, and stock indices in Japan and South Korea rise [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy View**: In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm and mainly buy on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts change. There are news about copper reserves and the Fed's policy. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations and has a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rise. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metals market changes from a long - position stampede to a shock repair [7]. - **Strategy View**: After the de - leveraging, the pricing returns to the fundamentals. Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, with reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounds, LME and domestic warehouse inventories change, and the basis and import losses are reported [10]. - **Strategy View**: The sentiment is positive, the copper supply pattern is complex, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounds, the inventory and basis change [12]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory accumulates, but the price is supported and is expected to gradually stabilize and rise [13]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [14]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute rise and may return to the industrial logic [15]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price falls, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [17]. - **Strategy View**: The lead industry status is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by relevant events [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price stabilizes and rebounds, and relevant cost and price data are reported [18]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is under fundamental pressure and is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [19]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rebounds after reaching the bottom, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [20][21]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term but maintain an upward trend in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises, and relevant contract and spot price data are reported [23]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate improve, and the price is supported by de - stocking in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light position [24]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price rises, and relevant inventory, basis, and mine price data are reported [25]. - **Strategy View**: There are uncertainties in the supply side, and it is recommended to wait and see [26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel price rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [27][28]. - **Strategy View**: The core rising logic remains unchanged, and the price has strong support below. Maintain a bullish view [28]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price stabilizes and rebounds, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost is stable, and the price is supported in the short term [30]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil change, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage, and the prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price falls, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [35]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure eases, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to steel mill replenishment and iron - making rhythm [36]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rise, and relevant spot and basis data are reported [37]. - **Strategy View**: The prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [41]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [42]. - **Strategy View**: The market lacks driving factors and is expected to fluctuate. The reference range is given [42]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda - ash price falls, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [43]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly and steadily. The reference range is given [44]. 3.3.5 Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon change, and relevant spot and basis data are reported [45]. - **Strategy View**: The prices are affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and it is recommended to wait for driving factors [47]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon price rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [48]. - **Strategy View**: There is an expectation of supply and demand improvement, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to production reduction and downstream production adjustment [49]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are reported [50]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to shrink, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to market information [51]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber market has different views on rise and fall, and relevant inventory and price data are reported [53][54][55]. - **Strategy View**: The commodity rebounds, and it is recommended for short - term trading and setting up a spread position [56]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude - oil price falls, and relevant inventory data are reported [57]. - **Strategy View**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price changes, and relevant price and profit data are reported [59]. - **Strategy View**: The price is under pressure due to the suppression of downstream demand [60]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price falls, and relevant price and basis data are reported [61]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals are bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change, and relevant cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [63]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is repaired, and it is recommended to gradually take profits [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rises, and relevant cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [65]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals are poor, and attention should be paid to capacity and production changes [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol price is flat, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [67]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is high, and it is necessary to reduce production to improve the situation [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [69]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to the risk of processing fee callback and mid - term long opportunities [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PX is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season, and it can follow the crude oil to go long on dips [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [74]. - **Strategy View**: The price is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [76]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to bottom out in the future, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price falls, and relevant supply and demand information is reported [79]. - **Strategy View**: Short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to long - term support [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price falls, and relevant supply and demand information is reported [81]. - **Strategy View**: Short at high levels [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fall, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [83][84]. - **Strategy View**: The prices may be bottoming out [85]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats fluctuate, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [86][87]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a callback to go long [87]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [88][89]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest [90]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price fluctuates, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [91][92]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [93].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-04 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-04 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 欧美股市集体收跌 观点分享： 欧美股市集体收跌，纳指跌超 1%，大型科技股领跌。周二（2 月 3 日）欧美股市集体 收跌，标普 500 指数跌近 1%，纳指跌超 1%。科技股普跌，美光科技跌超 4%，微软、英伟 达跌近 3%。黄金股表现强劲，盎格鲁黄金涨超 6%，泛美白银涨逾 5%。沃尔玛涨近 3%， 市值突破 1 万亿美元。市场对美联储货币政策不确定性加剧，叠加地缘紧张局势，压制市场 风险偏好，科技股承压明显。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 关注指数 | | --- | | 化工 ★★★★ | | 化工：当前化工板块主要矛盾有两方面：（1）关注反内卷带来的全行业利润修复预期，在 1 | | 月整体化工板块涨幅中，反内卷预期带来的利润修复是主要矛盾，目前芳烃板块已经大幅盈 | | 利，而烯烃板块涨幅相对偏小，部分品种如聚丙烯仍处于亏损状态；（2）伊朗带来的地缘溢 | | 价，伊朗主要影响整体化工的成本支撑，以及相关品种甲醇、LPG、乙二醇、塑料和尿素。 | ...