Workflow
黄金
icon
Search documents
中信期货晨报:国债期货延续反弹,股指窄幅震荡-20251224
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 00:58
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The US's "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy promotes economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was in line with expectations, not a radical tightening, with an upward - adjusted 2025 GDP growth forecast and a maintained 2026 forecast [7] - In the domestic macro - environment, the National Housing and Urban - Rural Construction Work Conference in December 2023 deployed work for 2026, including urban renewal and stabilizing the real estate market. The underground pipeline renovation work is a highlight, and it is expected that the capital investment will increase slightly next year. In November, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, falling short of expectations, with weakening commodity retail being the main drag and continuous improvement in service consumption. Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment continued to weaken, while exports were a strong support [7] - In asset allocation, the macro - environment favors the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. For precious metals, the logic of gold's rise is still clear with a high safety margin, while silver has increased volatility risk after a sharp rise. For non - ferrous metals, there are low - buying and long - holding opportunities for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be defensive at the end of the year and during the policy window period [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Price and Fluctuation - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Futures was at 3025.6, up 0.24%; the CSI 500 Futures was at 7133.2, up 0.14%; the CSI 1000 Futures was at 7197.4, down 0.09% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures was at 102.526, up 0.06%; the 5 - year was at 106.025, up 0.16%; the 10 - year was at 108.22, up 0.22%; the 30 - year was at 112.83, [increase data seems incorrect in the text] [3] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index was at 98.2603, unchanged; the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate was at 1.1762; the US Dollar - Japanese Yen exchange rate was at 157.028 [3] - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was at 1.33, unchanged; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was at 1.84, down 0.6 bp; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was at 4.17, up 1 bp [3] - **Hot Industries**: Construction, steel, non - ferrous metals, and other industries showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the construction industry was at 3694, up 1.38% daily, 1.54% weekly, 1.05% monthly, 8.75% quarterly, and 7.37% year - to - date [3] - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 57.95, up 2.49% daily; COMEX gold was at 4480.6, up 2.56% daily [3] - **Domestic Commodities**: The container shipping route to Europe was at 1806.6, down 3.48% daily; domestic gold was at 1014.24, up 1.34% daily [4] 3.2 Market Analysis by Sector 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Double factors boost the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile increase, and the focus is on the situation of incremental funds [8] - **Stock Index Options**: Use options for hedging to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the liquidity of the options market [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment of long - term bonds is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policy [8] 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by the expected liquidity easing and the tight supply of silver in the spot market. The short - term judgment is a volatile increase, and the focus is on the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [8] 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments in the near - term; in the long - term, the focus is on the risk of resuming flights. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the 2026 shipping company's flight resumption plan, year - end long - term contract signing freight rates, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments on freight rates [8] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Various products like steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are in a volatile state. For example, steel inventories continue to decline, and the short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron water production [8] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - Products such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different market trends. For example, copper prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the short - term judgment is a volatile increase, with the focus on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, etc [8] 3.2.6 Energy Chemical Sector - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and are in a volatile state. Chemical products have different trends, such as PX showing a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on factors like crude oil price fluctuations and macro - level changes [10] 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Products such as grains, oils, and livestock show different trends. For example, the price of live pigs is under pressure in the short - term, and the short - term judgment is a volatile decline, with the focus on factors like breeding sentiment and policies [10]
黄金首饰克价首破1400元!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 23:56
国际金价延续连日来的涨势。受此带动,以人民币计价的黄金价格再创新高。 12月23日,有品牌足金 饰品报价首次站上每克1400元上方。 与此同时,受美联储降息、供应紧缺、投资需求和工业需求显著增加等因素综合影响, 白银期价也延 续强劲涨势。 摩根大通在其2026年黄金市场展望报告中认为,由于驱动因素依然强劲, 黄金市场在2026年或将延续 上涨势头。与此同时,一些市场分析人士预计2026年白银需求也将继续增长。 来源:新华社、央视财经 编辑:乐丹娜 校对:冯卓盈 12月23日,伦敦现货黄金盘中一度接近每盎司4490美元,突破10月底每盎司4381美元的高点。受此影 响,上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格23日盘中来到每克1014元,上海期货交易所上市的黄金期货主力合约 一度涨至每克1018元,均创新高。 今年以来,国际现货黄金涨幅已超70%, 以人民币计价的现货黄金价格累计上涨超64%。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室认为,黄金已扳回10月跌幅,有望创下1979年以来最佳年度变现。美联储 料将在未来数月继续保持宽松政策,同时随着主权国家继续降低美元储备比重,全球央行对黄金的需求 有望保持强劲,对金价构成一定支撑。 ...
金饰价格涨破1400元/克
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 16:32
Price Surge - The price of gold jewelry has surpassed 1400 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang quoting 1403 yuan per gram, while other brands like Lao Miao Gold and Liufuk Jewelry are also above this threshold [1][1][1] Price Increase Analysis - The international gold price has seen significant increases, with spot gold reaching a record high of 4442.22 USD per ounce on December 22, 2025, and further rising to 4497.754 USD per ounce on December 23, 2025 [1][1][1] - Expectations of monetary policy changes, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are supporting gold prices as lower rates benefit non-yielding assets like gold [1][1][1] - Geopolitical risks are enhancing the safe-haven appeal of gold, driven by events such as U.S. actions near Venezuela and military activities in Ukraine [1][1][1] Market Reactions and Consumer Behavior - Consumer demand has surged in response to rising gold prices, with reports of significant sales increases in retail settings, such as a Wuhan mall where sales exceeded 10 million yuan in a single day [1][1][1] - There is a notable price disparity among different brands, with Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang priced at 1403 yuan per gram, while China National Gold remains at 1285 yuan per gram, reflecting brand premiums and operational costs [1][1][1] Industry Dynamics - The soaring gold prices are reshaping the industry landscape, with traditional pricing models being replaced by tax-inclusive pricing [1][1][1] - Some brands have seen price increases of over 30% for their gold jewelry, while gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs are attracting significant retail investor interest [1][1][1] Institutional Predictions - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs, predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with a baseline forecast of 4900 USD per ounce by 2026, indicating a potential upward trend [1][1][1] - CITIC Securities anticipates a further 30% increase in the precious metals sector by 2026, with gold prices projected to range between 4000 to 5600 USD per ounce [1][1][1]
赤峰黄金:关于变更签字会计师的公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-23 14:21
(文章来源:证券日报) 证券日报网讯 12月23日,赤峰黄金发布公告称,安永华明会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)(以下简 称"安永华明")作为公司2025年度财务报告和内部控制审计报告的审计机构,原指派贺鑫女士、张宇先 生作为签字会计师为公司提供审计服务。由于原签字会计师张宇先生工作调整,为按时完成公司2025年 度审计工作,安永华明指派徐菲女士接替张宇先生作为签字会计师,继续完成公司2025年度财务报告审 计和内部控制审计相关工作。变更后的财务报告审计和内部控制审计签字会计师为贺鑫女士、徐菲女 士。 ...
首破1400元!金饰克价再创新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 13:17
国际金价延续连日来的涨势。受此带动,以人民币计价的黄金价格再创新高。12月23日,有品牌足金饰 品报价首次站上每克1400元上方。 12月23日,伦敦现货黄金盘中一度接近每盎司4490美元,突破10月底每盎司4381美元的高点。受此影 响,上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格23日盘中来到每克1014元,上海期货交易所上市的黄金期货主力合约 一度涨至每克1018元,均创新高。 今年以来,国际现货黄金涨幅已超70%,以人民币计价的现货黄金价格累计上涨超64%。 与此同时,受美联储降息、供应紧缺、投资需求和工业需求显著增加等因素综合影响,白银期价也延续 强劲涨势。截至22日收盘,纽约商品交易所明年3月交割的白银期价收于每盎司68.565美元,涨幅为 1.59%。 来源:央视新闻(ID:cctvnewscenter) 题图:视觉中国 编辑:婉嘉 摩根大通在其2026年黄金市场展望报告中认为,由于驱动因素依然强劲,黄金市场在2026年或将延续上 涨势头。与此同时,一些市场分析人士预计2026年白银需求也将继续增长。 ...
12月23日盘后播报:新能源、锂电等板块走强,黄金维持强势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 13:14
Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations today, with the three major indices briefly turning negative, while the ChiNext index rose over 1% during the session. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 37.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market is expected to close positively for the second consecutive year, despite recent fluctuations following a significant upward trend. Factors such as profit realization, moderate valuation expansion, and rising inflation expectations are likely to support a "slow bull" market formation [1] - The macroeconomic fundamentals indicate that despite uncertainties abroad, China's trade resilience has exceeded market expectations, with steady growth in overseas revenue for listed companies. Coupled with ample liquidity and positive domestic macro and industrial policies, the market is anticipated to perform well next year [1] Group 2 - The new energy and lithium battery sectors showed strength today, with the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) rising by 2.06%. The outlook is positive due to improved supply-demand dynamics leading to profit recovery. Since Q3, upstream lithium battery raw materials have seen price increases, with the average price of lithium carbonate in November rising by 279.3 yuan/ton compared to October [2] - Domestic wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.706 million units in November, a year-on-year increase of 19% and a month-on-month increase of 5%. Export sales also surged to 284,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 255% and a month-on-month increase of 13% [2] Group 3 - Gold prices maintained strength today, reaching new highs. The long-term investment value of gold is supported by factors such as loose liquidity, geopolitical tensions, and de-dollarization trends. Investors are advised to consider gold ETFs (518800) and to accumulate during periodic corrections to lower costs [3] - Recent U.S. CPI data for November showed inflation declining more than expected, which, despite concerns over data accuracy, is viewed as a potential factor for more interest rate cuts next year, thereby supporting precious metal prices [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including stalled negotiations in Ukraine and conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia, may increase the premium on gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, global central banks remain committed buyers of gold, ensuring a steady inflow of funds into the market [3]
金价一年涨70%,还能追高吗?
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-12-23 12:33
作者 胡群 当COMEX黄金冲破4500美元、全年涨幅高达70%,市场终于意识到:这场上涨不是投机狂欢,而是一 场关于"什么是真正安全资产"的全球投票。截至发稿前,COMEX黄金价格已站上4520美元/盎司,12月 23日更一度触及4530.8美元的历史新高。2025年由此成为自1979年以来黄金表现最强劲的一年。 来源:东方财富App 推动本轮行情的核心,并非短期情绪,而是多重结构性力量的共振。美国11月失业率升至4.6%;核心 CPI同比仅上涨2.8%。数据持续释放经济降温信号,强化了市场对美联储在2026年继续降息的预期。与 此同时,日本央行如期加息,利空提前消化,促使资金回流黄金进行中长期配置。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)预测,基准情景下,金价到2026年6月将达4500美元/盎司;若地缘 冲突或金融动荡加剧,可能冲击4900美元。对大多数投资者来说,在投资组合中持有中个位数的黄金敞 口,有助于提高多元化,并且是应对意外情况的良好策略。尽管黄金不是万灵丹,但在构建审慎投资组 合中仍能发挥效用。但该机构也提醒:"尽管长期前景乐观,短期估值已处极端高位,追高需谨慎。" 钱放银行不如买金条? 对普 ...
港股速报|恒指高开低走 今日新股表现两极分化
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-23 12:26
Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but experienced a downward trend, closing slightly lower with the Hang Seng Index at 25,774.14 points, down 27.63 points or 0.11% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also showed weakness, closing at 5,488.89 points, down 37.94 points or 0.69% [3] Sector Performance - There was a notable divergence in sector performance, with gold and wind power stocks leading gains, while technology stocks generally weakened [1] - Gold stocks continued to rise, driven by record high international gold prices, with Shandong Gold up nearly 5% [5] - The wind power sector saw significant gains, with Dongfang Electric rising over 8% [5] - Lithium battery stocks were positively impacted by optimistic lithium price expectations, with Ganfeng Lithium up over 4% and Tianqi Lithium rising over 2% [5] New Stock Performance - The new stock market showed significant divergence, with AI-related stocks like Nobi Kan (HK02635) performing exceptionally well, opening with a 299.75% increase from the issue price of 80 HKD and closing up over 363% [6] - Another new stock, Easy Health (HK02661), also performed strongly, opening with a rise of over 120% from the issue price of 22.68 HKD and closing up over 158.8% [6] - Conversely, the new stock Hansai Aitai-B (HK03378) struggled, closing down over 46% from its issue price of 32 HKD, ending at 17.2 HKD [9] Capital Flow - Southbound funds continued to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, with a net buy of 611 million HKD through the Stock Connect on December 23 [8] Future Outlook - According to a report by CITIC Securities, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from internal and external economic stimuli, potentially leading to a second round of valuation recovery and performance revival by 2026, with a focus on technology, healthcare, resource products, consumer staples, paper, and aviation sectors [11]
港股收盘|恒指跌0.11%,快手跌超3%
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 12:13
恒指报收25774.14点,跌0.11%;恒生科技指数报收5488.89点,跌0.69%。黄金股走高,万国黄金集团 涨超5%,山东黄金涨超4%,招金矿业涨超2%;快手跌超3%。(AI生成) ...
资金动向 | 北水抢筹阿里巴巴超13亿港元,连续8日卖出中国移动
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-23 11:05
Group 1 - Alibaba-W recorded a net buy of 1.36 billion, while Meituan-W saw a net buy of 0.223 billion, and Zijin Mining had a net buy of 0.111 billion [1][3] - China Mobile experienced a net sell of 1.975 billion, Tencent Holdings had a net sell of 1.088 billion, Kuaishou-W saw a net sell of 0.174 billion, and SMIC had a net sell of 0.141 billion [1][3] - Southbound funds have continuously net sold China Mobile for 8 days, totaling 6.49287 billion HKD [3] Group 2 - Alibaba has released a new end-to-end voice interaction model called Fun-Audio-Chat, which includes open-sourced 8B model weights and inference code [4] - Zijin Mining benefits from the rise in gold prices, which have increased over 71% this year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [4] - Ganfeng Lithium reports a gradual increase in lithium carbonate futures prices, with optimistic market expectations for future lithium prices due to recovering quarterly performance in lithium companies [4] Group 3 - Kuaishou announced that its live streaming function was attacked on December 22, 2025, but has since been restored, with other services unaffected [5] - Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group's shareholder Cai Dongchen increased his stake by acquiring 3.454 million shares at an average price of 8.1957 HKD per share, totaling approximately 0.11 billion HKD [5]