2025年04月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地主动让利，外弱内强运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：宏观情绪消退，震荡整理 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆休市，连粕反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：内强外弱 | 7 | | 棉花：需求限制郑棉期货反弹动能 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：区间调整 | 10 | | 生猪：二育积极性持续提升 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 21 日 棕榈油：产地主动让利，外弱内强运行 豆油：宏观情绪消退，震荡整理 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu028807@gtjas.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][7][9] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market may gradually return to fundamentals as trade friction eases. Attention has shifted to new - season supply, and the market needs to focus on the drought in US cotton - growing areas and domestic demand trends [2] - The sugar market is currently in a situation where short - term international supply and demand are tight, but the medium - term price may be under pressure. Zhengzhou sugar prices mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [5][6] - The pulp market is affected by macro - policies and supply - demand relationships. Although the trade friction has eased, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure [8][9] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract was 12,890 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton (+0.47%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,032 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,200 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1] - As of the week of April 13, 2025, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 160,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 171%. The cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.3778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [1] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated and closed higher. Trade friction has a limited impact, and the market may return to fundamentals. The USDA report was slightly bearish, and attention should be paid to the drought in US cotton - growing areas. Domestic supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract was 5,936 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,930 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - As of April 15, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, there were 37 sugar mills still in production in India, 37 fewer than the same period last year. The amount of crushed sugarcane was 271.328 million tons, a decrease of 35.292 million tons (-11.51%), and sugar production was 25.425 million tons, a decrease of 5.74 million tons (-18.42%) [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were strong. The short - term international sugar market supply and demand are tight, but the medium - term price may be under pressure. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate before the import of sugar supplements [5][6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Focus on Brazilian weather and policy changes [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,332 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.45%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [7] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some minor adjustments [7] Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices were weakly volatile. The "reciprocal tariff" policy affected the market, but the trade friction has temporarily eased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term pulp futures prices are expected to remain under pressure [9]

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-04-18 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 隔夜美豆小幅收跌，周五美豆因假期休市，国内大豆到港预期推动豆粕回落，市场预期未来三个月豆粕 及大豆有累库趋势。昨日豆粕成交较好，开机率恢复至 38.47%，提货小幅增加，现货最低为华南 3090 元/吨跌 30。 杨泽元 由于对美大豆的高额关税导致我国大豆进口仅依赖巴西，巴西大豆升贴水后期有走强动力，近期下跌空 间也不会太大，而美豆目前低于其种植成本较多，适逢其种植季节种植面积及天气都有交易空间，在宏 观环境没有明显走弱的前提下，我国大豆到港成本具有稳中偏涨的趋势。但若贸易战引发宏观进一步走 弱，美豆种植成本、巴西升贴水以及国内需求的下降都会抑制豆系价格，因此这也成为豆系上涨的压 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 4 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：周四 CBOT 大豆期货下跌，受到市场获利了结的拖累。随着现货市场价格跌幅扩大，豆粕期价 跌幅扩大。近期大豆到港量的逐渐增加，市场对 5 月份供应改善的预期渐强，此前现货价格坚挺的地区跌 幅明显扩大，基差延续回落。市场情绪自峰值逐渐回落，交易逻辑开始向产业逻辑切换，短期考虑到五一 假期前油厂开工率难有大幅提升，阶段性市场供应压力释放较为有限。短期豆类期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点 ...

2025年04月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：原油反弹，支撑国际油脂 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：宏观影响减弱，震荡整理 | 2 | | 豆粕：获利了结、美豆微跌，连粕震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：回落调整 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：需求限制郑棉期货反弹动能 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：二育积极性继续提升 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 18 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | 棕榈油：原油反弹，支撑国际油脂 | | --- | 豆油：宏观影响减弱，震荡整理 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,204 | 涨跌幅 1.56% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,164 | 涨跌幅 -0.49% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides strategies for different agricultural product sectors, including unilateral and arbitrage strategies, and analyzes the market conditions and trends of various agricultural products such as oils, corn, and livestock [1][19][21]. - It also ranks the strength of different agricultural product varieties in the short - medium and long - term and gives corresponding long - short allocation suggestions [3][48]. - The trade war between China and the US has an impact on the agricultural product market, affecting the supply, demand, and price of products such as beans, cotton, and livestock [48][59]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上期策略回顾 - **豆粕菜粕**: The recommended "M - RM 09 narrowing" and "RM 5 - 9 reverse spread" strategies performed poorly. The M - RM 09 spread widened from 201 on March 18 to 393 on April 15, and the RM 5 - 9 spread widened from - 128 to - 89 [11]. - **白糖**: The suggestion to short Zhengzhou sugar at high prices did not work well. The domestic market was stronger than expected, and the 5 - month contract triggered the stop - loss level [12]. - **生猪**: The strategy of shorting the LH5 contract after over - rising provided good profit - taking opportunities, and the focus has now shifted to the 09 contract [12]. - **玉米**: The recommendation of buying the corn 07 contract at low prices did not see the second upward repair. The contract oscillated around 2300 yuan/ton due to traders' lack of confidence [13]. - **油脂**: The shorting opportunity of P2509 gave good profit - taking points, and the P59 positive spread and YP09 widening strategies did not show a strong trend [14]. - **Strength - weakness allocation strategy**: The previous long - short allocation strategy showed a 2.6% loss, but the approaching delivery of the 5 - month contract affected the strategy performance tracking [15]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - **棕榈油**: Bearish in 1 - 2 months. Suggest shorting the 9 - month contract (P2509) with a target profit of 7500 yuan and a stop - loss of 8300 yuan [19]. - **豆油**: Bullish over 3 months. Recommend going long on the 1 - month contract (Y2601) with a first target profit of 8000 yuan and a stop - loss of 7400 yuan [19]. - **玉米**: Bullish in 1 - 3 months. Pay attention to the 07 contract's long - buying opportunity at low prices, with a target profit of 2450 - 2500 yuan and a stop - loss of 2250 - 2270 yuan [19]. - **生猪**: Bearish in 1 - 2 months. Look for shorting opportunities in the 9 - month contract after over - rising, with a target profit of 14100 - 14200 yuan and a stop - loss of 14800 - 14900 yuan [20]. 3.2.2套利策略 - **Y2509 - Y2601**: Recommend a reverse spread strategy based on the expectation of more soybean arrivals in the near - term and fewer in the long - term. The risk includes lower - than - expected soybean arrivals in the third quarter and changes in US bio - fuel policies [21]. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - **油脂板块**: Short - term shorting opportunities for P2509 and long - term long - buying opportunities for Y2601. The key indicators include the accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory and the high POGO spread [22][25][31]. - **玉米板块**: Continue to recommend long - buying the corn 07 contract at low prices. Pay attention to Northeast inventory changes, North China drought, and wheat storage rumors. Key indicators include the corn inventory - consumption ratio of deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises' corn inventory days [32][33]. - **养殖板块**: Look for shorting opportunities in the LH 7 and 9 contracts after over - rising. The current inventory situation continues to drive the near - strong and far - weak pattern, and the end of the second quarter is an important release point for inventory [37][39]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - **豆粕 (M)**: In the short - term, the price increase is limited. In the long - term, if the import of US soybeans is excluded or the US yield is lower than expected, the price may rise [48]. - **菜粕 (RM)**: Unilateral follow - up with bean粕. Focus on policy changes, especially the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports [48]. - **棕榈油 (P)**: In the short - term, the price is supported by replenishment, but in the long - term, it is affected by the low demand for Indonesian biodiesel [48]. - **豆油 (Y)**: In the near - term, the price is under pressure, but in the long - term, it is bullish due to potential supply shortages [48]. - **菜油 (OI)**: Expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend due to the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed and the drought in European rapeseed production areas [48]. - **Corn (C, CS)**: In the short - term, look for catalysts; in the long - term, if there is no large - scale substitution, the gap will be exposed in mid - to - late July [48]. - **Eggs (JD)**: In the second quarter, the price is under pressure due to increased supply and reduced inventory demand. In the third quarter, the supply and demand situation needs further evaluation [49]. - **Pigs (LH)**: In the long - term, the price is expected to be weak in the first half of 2025 and stronger in the second half, with a possible price turning point at the end of the year [49]. - **Sugar (SR)**: In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and bearish; in the long - term, it is expected to be in a bear market, but affected by weather conditions [50]. - **Cotton (CF)**: In the second quarter, the market is not optimistic; in the second half of the year, it is cautiously bullish, but the market volatility is high [50]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: From March 14 to April 14, 2025, the agricultural product futures sector had a net capital outflow. Beans, corn, and other varieties had the highest capital inflows, while oils and rubber had significant outflows [51]. - **各品种基差及基差率 (2025年4月14日)**: The report provides the basis and basis rate data for various agricultural product varieties [54]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: Short - medium - term: Long bean粕, rapeseed oil, and corn; short palm oil and pigs. Long - term: Look for opportunities to long bean粕 at low prices and short sugar and palm oil at high prices [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices declined slightly, with the main contract C2507 closing at 2303 yuan/ton. Corn option trading volume was 88,597 lots, and the open interest was 182,818 lots. The option weighted implied volatility decreased significantly to 10.94%, while the 30 - day historical volatility was 8.43% [3]. - Soybean meal futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the main contract M2509 closing at 3020 yuan/ton. Soybean meal option trading volume was 591,917 lots, and the open interest was 526,550 lots. The option weighted implied volatility continued to decline to 18.12%, while the 30 - day historical volatility was 27.50% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - Corn main contract C2507: closed at 2303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (-0.04%), with a trading volume of 414,571 lots (down 47,426 lots) and an open interest of 1,207,309 lots (up 40,783 lots) [5]. - Soybean meal main contract M2509: closed at 3020 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.23%), with a trading volume of 1,385,850 lots (down 806,266 lots) and an open interest of 2,427,840 lots (down 55,056 lots) [5]. 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - Corn options: trading volume was 88,597 lots (down 30,273 lots), volume PCR was 1.019 (up 0.289), open interest was 182,818 lots (down 340,233 lots), and open interest PCR was 0.608 (down 0.058) [9]. - Soybean meal options: trading volume was 591,917 lots (down 377,483 lots), volume PCR was 0.951 (up 0.122), open interest was 526,550 lots (down 922,935 lots), and open interest PCR was 0.765 (up 0.206) [9]. 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - Corn options: the option weighted implied volatility was 10.94% (down 2.97 percentage points, -21.35%), and the 30 - day historical volatility was 8.43% with a 30 - day volatility quantile of 0.08 [19]. - Soybean meal options: the option weighted implied volatility was 18.12% (down 12.38 percentage points, -40.58%), and the 30 - day historical volatility was 27.50% with a 30 - day volatility quantile of 0.95 [19].

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许字|2011|1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 17 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章未尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华从业证号：F03088692 交易咨询证号：Z0016646 油脂、白糖反抽，苹果强势 一、农产品板块综述 油脂集体飘红，受到国际原油价格反弹的提振，马来西亚 4 月上 半月棕榈油出口环比增长给棕油期价提供支撑。但是由于增产季来临， 棕榈油回升空间预计有限。白糖反抽上扬，国内白糖销糖率较快，需 求较佳，库存拐点即将来临，加之进口白糖和替代品下降，支撑白糖 反弹回升。苹果强势上涨，五一备货火热，产区交易顺畅，苹果库存 偏低，支撑苹果价格走高。豆粕偏弱震荡，进口大豆到港增加, 油厂 开机率将回升，豆粕供应亦将增长，后市豆粕预计偏弱运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油： 反抽上扬 焦点关注：棕榈油主力 2509 合约反抽上扬，受原油反弹提振： 1.国际油价反弹,油脂集体飘红。棕榈油反抽。高频数据显示 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 粕类日报 2025 年 4 月 16 日 【粕类日报】市场压力继续体现 盘面大幅回落 研究员：陈界正 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/4/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3039 | -30 | 天津 | 700 | 730 | -30 | | 0 5 | | 2839 | -71 | 东莞 | 250 | 250 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 3013 | -53 | | 300 | 350 | -50 | | | | | | 日照 | 330 | 430 | -100 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2425 | -27 | 南通 | 1 4 ...

每日早盘观察 2025 年 4 月 16 日 公众号二维码 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 0.19%至 1038.25 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数上涨 0.3%至 301.4 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.NOPA：美国 2025 年 3 月大豆压榨量为 1.94551 亿蒲式耳，市场预期为 1.97602 亿蒲式耳，2025 年 2 月为 1.7787 亿蒲式耳； 2.油世界：在周六阿根廷政府计划减少一部分规律管制后，阿根廷比索兑美元汇率 下降 10%。阿根廷比索汇率后续允许在 1000-1400 比索/美元区间运行； 3.油 ...