Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight upward trend today, recovering from the previous day's high opening and low closing, but trading volume decreased by 183.3 billion, down to 1.32 trillion, indicating cautious market sentiment [2] - Following a significant announcement from Trump regarding a "major trade agreement" with a certain major country, gold prices fell nearly 2% [3][4] - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the Chinese stock market, maintaining an "overweight" rating and raising the target points for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 78 and 4400, respectively, suggesting potential increases of 7% and 15% [4] Investment Strategies - In the current complex market environment, ordinary investors are advised to follow institutional investors rather than making independent decisions, as institutions have greater capital and expertise [5] - A common pitfall for investors is the tendency to chase price movements, leading to losses. Understanding the underlying trading logic is crucial to avoid this [5][7] - Institutions often increase their trading frequency of buying low and selling high, which can mislead individual investors if they only focus on price trends [7][9] Institutional Behavior - Institutions can be more cunning than individual investors, and understanding the overall market trading behavior can provide insights into their strategies [9] - An example illustrates that at price peaks, institutions may lock in profits and even short-sell, while at price lows, they may aggressively buy back shares, indicating a bullish intent [7][9]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations today, with a total trading volume of 1.32 trillion yuan, down 183.3 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [2] - Trump announced a "major trade agreement" with a certain major country, which led to a nearly 2% drop in gold prices [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating on the Chinese stock market, raising the target values for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 78 and 4400 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 7% and 15% [3] Group 2 - In the current market environment, investors are advised to follow institutional investors rather than making independent decisions, as institutional funds are generally more informed and capable [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding trading behaviors, particularly the "strong profit-taking" actions by institutional investors at price peaks, which can indicate market trends [7] - Observing the overall trading behavior distribution can help investors avoid falling into traps set by institutional funds [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential delisting of nearly 300 Chinese companies from U.S. markets if negotiations between the Trump administration and China reach a deadlock, raising concerns about the "weaponization of markets" [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Market Impact - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's statement that "all options are on the table" regarding the exclusion of Chinese stocks from U.S. markets has heightened market anxiety [3]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks major Chinese ADRs, experienced a sharp decline following the announcement of equal tariffs, indicating investor awareness of delisting risks [4]. - The Trump administration previously attempted to expel Chinese companies from U.S. markets during its first term, leading to significant regulatory changes and the delisting of major Chinese telecom firms [5]. Group 2: Financial Implications and Market Reactions - As of March 7, there are 286 Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges, with a total market capitalization of approximately $1.1 trillion [5]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that a scenario where U.S. investors are banned from investing in Chinese stocks could lead to a sell-off demand of around $800 billion in Chinese equities [8]. - If such delisting occurs, it could trigger retaliatory selling of U.S. assets by Chinese investors, potentially affecting $370 billion in U.S. stocks and $1.3 trillion in U.S. bonds [8]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The article highlights the strategic use of financial markets as a weapon, drawing parallels to the U.S. actions against Russia in 2022, but notes that the current geopolitical landscape complicates such a strategy against China [9]. - Experts warn that while the U.S. may not immediately act on delisting, the threat remains, which could lead to further market instability and potential backlash against U.S. assets [9].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' risk manager Josh Schiffrin shifted his stance from bearish to bullish, predicting a market rebound within 6-12 months despite current market pessimism [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - Schiffrin anticipates a strong market rebound driven by potential negotiations to lower trade barriers and tax cuts, despite risks of a global trade war or recession [1] - After a significant rebound, Schiffrin now expects the market to enter a consolidation phase, indicating a shift from bullish to neutral [3] - The current market prices reflect optimistic expectations regarding trade, which may have already been priced in [3] Group 2: Currency and Commodities Outlook - The dollar has entered a bear market, with expectations of further declines, potentially reaching a target of 1.25 against the euro [3] - Schiffrin maintains a bearish outlook on oil prices, predicting they could drop to $45 due to OPEC's production increases [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Recommendations include shorting overvalued sectors such as non-profitable tech stocks and high-yield stocks [5] - The market is currently influenced by three main themes: positive tariff news, underexposure of discretionary and systematic investors, and the reduction of left-tail risks [7] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Strong non-farm payroll data has temporarily alleviated recession fears, but concerns about economic slowdown and high earnings expectations remain prevalent [9] - The recent market movements reflect overly optimistic expectations regarding the economic cycle, suggesting a downward bias in risk-reward ratios [10] Group 5: Long-term Market Considerations - A potential decline in U.S. stock price-to-earnings ratios to 18 times could indicate a 20% drop from current levels, prompting diversification away from concentrated investments in large-cap stocks [11]

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"美联储利率会议与中美会谈"，"巴印冲突与欧佩克+加速增产"，"清迈倡议与文明之鹰2025"，"财新PMI与三巨头发布会"四个方 面解读了基本面的一些信息，并结合美联储，中美，瑞士，巴基斯坦，印度，欧佩克，金银油，10+3，中埃，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布局 思路。 今天的基本面发生了很多事，包括巴印冲突，美国与胡塞武装达成停火协议，中美计划在5月9日-12日瑞士举行会谈，欧佩克+计划加速增产，以及三巨头 的重磅发布会，这些内容我已经在今夜的直播课上为大家作了跟踪与解读。 这里重点说一下， 美联储今夜明晨的利率决议。 | 预测利率 | 2025.05.8 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.8% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 1.1% | 25.0% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 3.2% | 35.6% | 54.8% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 96.8% | 63.3% | 19 ...

Domestic News - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of April, the country's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the sixth consecutive month of gold accumulation [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds [3] - The China Passenger Car Association estimated that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April reached 1.14 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42% and a month-on-month increase of 1%. Cumulatively, from January to April, wholesale sales reached 4 million units, also a year-on-year increase of 42% [3] - A total of 1.92 million new A-share accounts were opened in April, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% [3] International News - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts for the second and third quarters to $9,330 per ton and $9,150 per ton, respectively, up from previous forecasts of $8,620 and $8,370 [2] - The U.S. domestic crude oil production for the week ending May 2 was reported to be the lowest since January 24, 2025, while the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory reached the highest level since October 28, 2022 [2] - The German Defense Minister plans to increase defense spending to over €60 billion annually starting in 2025 [2] - The EU trade chief indicated that the European Commission will announce preparations for countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, with potential tariffs on U.S.-made cars if trade negotiations fail [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar, is attributed to a potential sell-off of US dollars by Asian countries, which could lead to significant downward pressure on the US dollar, estimated at $2.5 trillion [2][4][5]. Currency Movements - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced a dramatic increase of 10% over two days, marking its highest level since February 2023 and the largest single-day gain in 37 years [4]. - The Hong Kong Dollar triggered its strong-side convertibility guarantee three times since May 3, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injecting a total of HKD 116.6 billion into the market [3][4]. - The offshore Chinese Yuan rose by nearly 0.91%, reaching its highest level since November of the previous year [2]. Economic Factors - Stephen Jen, a prominent economist, warned that the sell-off of US dollars by Asian countries could lead to a significant depreciation of the dollar, aligning with his previous predictions regarding the Yuan's appreciation [2][5]. - The weakening of the US dollar is linked to reduced growth expectations for the US economy, with recent economic data indicating a downturn and increasing speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Market Reactions - The surge in Asian currencies is seen as a reaction to the declining attractiveness of dollar assets, prompting companies with large dollar holdings to sell off their dollars and convert to local currencies [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs reported that the dollar is currently overvalued by approximately 15%, suggesting that as the US returns diminish, the dollar's overvaluation may gradually correct [5][6]. Future Projections - If the US current account deficit decreases significantly, it could lead to substantial adjustments in the dollar's value, with potential depreciations of 16.5% to 31% depending on the extent of the deficit reduction [6].

Group 1 - Optimism surrounding trade negotiations has helped the S&P 500 index recover losses since Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, but the market has little room to absorb potential disappointing outcomes from these negotiations [1] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. was raised from approximately 5% to about 25%, marking the highest level in over a century, according to J.P. Morgan Wealth Management [1][3] - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of nearly 19% from its historical high of 6144.15 points on February 19 to a low of 4982.77 points by April 8, before rebounding strongly on the day Trump announced a pause on some tariffs [3][5] Group 2 - High-profile investors, such as Paul Tudor Jones, have expressed concerns that even if tariffs are reduced to around 40% or 50%, the stock market may still reach new lows due to the economic drag from high tariffs [3] - Goldman Sachs economists believe that a preliminary trade agreement between the U.S. and some countries may be reached soon, which could influence market sentiment positively [2] - Concerns about the potential economic damage from tariffs are growing, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates to support the market [3][7] Group 3 - Emily Bowersock Hill, managing $850 million in assets, noted that the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System has hedged currency risks and maintains a balanced portfolio between U.S. and international stocks [4] - Historical data from Goldman Sachs indicates that larger market rebounds have not necessarily marked the bottom of bear markets, suggesting caution for investors [6] - Peter Oppenheimer from Goldman Sachs highlighted that while investor expectations for trade agreements have increased, the details may be complex and could lead to prolonged uncertainty [7]

Group 1 - The chief economist of Apollo Global Management warns that the rapid decline in trade between the US and China could lead to empty store shelves in the US within weeks, similar to shortages experienced during the pandemic [1] - The economist indicates that the US inflation level is likely to worsen due to China's role as a major supplier of many consumer goods [1] - Following Trump's announcement of a 90-day delay on certain tariffs, economists felt slightly reassured, but concerns about a potential US economic recession remain [3] Group 2 - As the effective date for a 145% tariff on Chinese goods approaches, US retailers and consumers are expected to face a "winter of product shortages and price increases" [5] - Retailers began stockpiling goods in anticipation of the tariffs, but many canceled orders after the announcement, leading to a halt in shipping from China [5] - The article emphasizes the heavy reliance of American households on Chinese imports for essential goods, with many items in homes being predominantly sourced from China [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times in the coming months, specifically in July, September, and October, totaling a reduction of 75 basis points [1] - The report indicates that despite a pessimistic outlook from economic surveys, the Federal Reserve is likely to wait for strong signals from the labor market before making any monetary moves [1] - U.S. economic indicators are mixed, with 177,000 new jobs added in April, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2% [1] Group 2 - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply declined, with the confidence index dropping to 86 points in April, the lowest level in 13 years, primarily due to growing concerns over tariffs [1] - Job vacancies fell to 7.19 million as of the end of March, the lowest level since September 2024, and below the market expectation of 7.5 million [1] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the first decline in three years [1] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has warned about the complex impacts of tariffs, suggesting they may hinder the Fed's dual goals of stabilizing prices and stimulating economic growth [1] - President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, having directly criticized Powell and threatened to dismiss him, although he later retracted this statement [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its latest interest rate decision, with the market anticipating that the Fed will remain on hold for now [2]