Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. The demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively firm, leading to a divergence in their trends. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be continuously monitored [4]. - For iron ore, although the latest overseas shipments have significantly declined, the short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction need to be continuously observed [7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the black sector depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, they are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. - In the glass and soda ash market, the price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3092 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with high inventory pressure. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased, and the apparent demand is relatively good, with a slight reduction in inventory. The profit of steel mills is gradually narrowing, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 795.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.18% (-9.50). The position changed by -5590 hands to 53.90 million hands. The weighted position was 85.28 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.30% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to port berth maintenance. The short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The port and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.04% at 5626 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8740 yuan/ton, up 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by 13190 hands to 498655 hands. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 53710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+825). The weighted contract position changed by -52 hands to 304226 hands [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: They are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot price of soda ash was 1195 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel price is in a weak downward trend, with the decline already factoring in the decrease in apparent demand. Further decline is subject to policy interference on the raw material supply side. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is currently in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The 2601 contract showed an oscillating downward trend. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the market anticipates 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. It is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, the price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of most steel products declined slightly. For example, the spot price of threaded steel in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price dropped by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel increased by 3 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the profit of South China threaded steel increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decrease of 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types declined. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder dropped by 9.9 to 838.1, a decrease of 1.2%. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decrease of 22.5%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 67.3 to 6636.8, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the Coke 01 contract increased by 27 to 1630, a rise of 1.7%. The Coking Coal 01 contract increased by 25 to 1142, a rise of 2.2% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, an increase of 1.2%. The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly. For example, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 36.5 to 883.5, a decrease of 4.0% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: Steel apparent demand remains at a low level in the off - season without signs of recovery. There is an expected increase in apparent demand during the peak season from August to September, and inventory accumulation will slow down. Steel supply - demand has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Steel prices will follow the expected changes in the coking coal supply side. For the January contract, pay attention to the support level of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1] - **Iron Ore Industry**: The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease. Steel mill profit margins have slightly declined, but after major events, iron ore production will increase this week, and steel mills' replenishment demand will rise. It is expected that supply and demand will increase simultaneously this week. Port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventory has decreased. Due to high steel mill profitability, iron ore production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and low port inventory provides support for iron ore. Pay attention to steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke Industry**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile decline, with intense price fluctuations. Spot auction prices were stable to weak, and Mongolian coal quotes were weak. Domestic coking coal auctions have weakened, and downstream procurement willingness has decreased. After the lifting of production restrictions, coal mines in major producing areas are resuming production, and market supply - demand has eased. Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and after the first round of price cuts in coke spot, it remained stable. The supply of coke will gradually become more abundant, with an expected 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. For both coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take profit on short positions, treat the market with a volatile view, and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and most futures contract prices also declined [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel product costs and profits changed, such as the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increasing by 1 yuan, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 20 yuan [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.1 to 229.0 (a 4.6% decline), and the production of five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7 (a 2.7% decline) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7 (a 2.2% increase), and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.8 (an 8.3% decline), and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8 (a 3.5% decline) [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract for some types increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 (a 3.6% increase), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 (a 5.6% decrease) [3] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0 (a 3.1% decline), and the global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2 (a 22.5% decline) [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 (a 4.2% decline) [3] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 24.3 to 13849.65 (a 0.2% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 6686.8 (a 0.7% decline) [3] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coking Coal and Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and coking coal futures showed a volatile decline. The first - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and coking coal spot auction prices are stable to weak [5] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline), and the raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 43.1 to 817.3 (a 5.0% decline) [5] Demand - The weekly iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline) [5] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, and port inventory decreased. Coking coal inventory in coal mines, coal - washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills decreased, while port and border - crossing inventory increased slightly [5]

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明, 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可你的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供�考，报告中的信息或所靠达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或狗价，投资者撰此 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期始特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货节面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月11日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) ...

2025 年 09 月 10 日 宏观经济点评 宏 观 经 济 点 开 源 证 券 证 券 相关研究报告 PPI 同比增速回升或因输入性与地产链基数回落 《非美地区需求或仍锚定美国需求— 宏观经济点评》-2025.9.9 《国债买卖或重启，服务消费有望加 码—宏观周报》-2025.9.7 《 就业降温明显，但 50bp 降息尚需 通胀配合—美国 8 月非农就业数据点 评》-2025.9.6 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | | | guoxiaobin@kysec.cn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | | | 证书编号：S0790525070004 | | | 事件：8 月 | CPI | 同比-0.4%，预期-0.2%，前值 | 0%；PPI | 同比-2.9%，预期-2.9%， | 核心 CPI 环比连续五个月超季节性 8 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点至-0.4%；环比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点 至 0%。 1、鲜菜价格带动食品 CPI 环比回升 8 月 CPI ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：供给端消息扰动 短期高位震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 供应方面：外矿发运显著回落，主要原因是淡水河谷发运以及非主流回落明显，澳洲发运 相对稳定。到港量水平略低于去年同期，随着前期高发运量持续到港，预计供给端压力将逐步 体现，整体看，供给端支撑力度持续减弱。 原材料：程 鹏 需求方面：国内日均铁水量因华北限产环比显著下滑，本期日均铁水产量 228.84（环比 -11.29），当前钢厂盈利率持续回落且高炉利润水平趋近盈亏平衡水平，虽然短流程再度陷入 全面亏损对铁矿石需求存在一定程度保护，但整体看国内需求对价格支撑力度边际减弱。 库存方面：因华北地区检修增多，钢厂端进口矿日耗以及库存环比回落，后期关注十一补 库力度；本期港口库存小幅累积，后期需关注钢厂日耗以及高铁水回升幅度（能否回升至 235 以上），此将决定后期库存累积速率。 观点：市场对美联储降息定价较为充分，预计市场交投重心将侧重于交易现实，随着国内 终 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was over 2.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 192,000 tons. In September, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, iron ore demand will still be resilient [3][40]. - In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase. Both monthly shipments and arrivals were at the highest levels of the year. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][41]. - In the next month, focus on the impact of steel mills' phased restocking on the market. With a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, after the end of parade - related production restrictions, northern blast furnaces will resume production, increasing phased restocking demand. As the National Day holiday approaches, there is still restocking expectation in mid - to - late September. With the improvement of supply - demand margins, iron ore is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, but the upside is limited by high steel inventories and weak terminal demand. The price range to watch is 700 - 890 yuan/ton [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, iron ore futures showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend, remaining relatively firm under the background of both supply and demand decline. In early August, the futures price rebounded due to better - than - expected steel demand in the off - season and strong exports. In mid - August, the iron ore price dropped as steel downstream demand was insufficient. In late August, iron ore was resistant to decline as its demand remained high. In September, pig iron output will remain resilient, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation will support the iron ore price, but the weak terminal demand pattern remains unchanged [8]. - The spot price oscillated with a slight increase. As of early September, the 62% Platts Index rose 2.6% to $102.7, and the PB powder spot price rose 1 yuan to 769 yuan/wet ton. The spread between high - and low - grade ores weakened. The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder dropped from over 120 yuan/ton to around 100 yuan/ton. The spread between the 09 - 01 contracts weakened last month and then rebounded in September [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Demand with High - level Fine - tuning and Overall Strong Resilience - In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was above 90%, and the daily average pig iron output of steel mills was over 2.4 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate slightly declined from 64.94% to 63.64%, remaining at a high level in recent years, supporting high - level pig iron output. In September, iron ore demand will still be resilient, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [10]. - Overseas, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased to 90%. The crude steel output of major iron ore importing countries declined significantly. In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics decreased by 1.3% year - on - year [11]. 3.2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Stable with an Increase - From January to July, China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year. In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase, and both monthly shipments and arrivals were at the highest levels of the year. The weekly average shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24 million tons. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month [15]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In the previous month, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China decreased slightly month - on - month, remaining at a moderately high level overall but showing a differentiated structure. As of early September, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.25 million tons. The overall high iron ore inventory has limited support for the iron ore price [18]. 3.2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - The iron ore inventory of steel mills decreased slightly. As of early September, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.39 million tons. Steel mills' profitability at a high level this year drives restocking. After the end of production restrictions and as the National Day holiday approaches, there is restocking expectation, which will support the spot price. Currently, steel mills maintain low - inventory management [31]. 3.2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of domestic mines are at a neutral level in recent years, with a low possibility of significant short - term production increase. As of early September, the daily average concentrate output of 186 domestic mines was 452,000 tons, and the mine concentrate inventory was 681,500 tons [35]. 3.2.6 Freight Situation - In August, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) adjusted slightly. As of September 3, the BDI index was 1940 points. The freight rates of the Australian and Brazilian routes to Qingdao increased. Currently, the freight rates are at a medium - to - high level within the year, but the upside may be limited due to unstable global macro - demand [37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Demand side: In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. In September, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, iron ore demand will still be resilient. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [40]. - Supply side: In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the next month, with the improvement of supply - demand margins, iron ore is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, but the upside is limited by high steel inventories and weak terminal demand. The price range to watch is 700 - 890 yuan/ton [41].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 779, down 2 from the previous day and up 3 week - on - week; PB powder is at 782, down 3 and up 3 respectively; Macfarlane powder is 770, down 1 and up 4; Jinbuba powder is 749, down 2 and down 1; Super Special powder is 688, up 3 and up 15; Carajás powder is 897, up 3 and up 6 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian blend is 805, down 5 and down 11; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 787, down 3 and up 3; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 792, down 3 and up 3 [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 910, unchanged and up 7; 61% Indian powder is 738, down 2 and down 1; Karara concentrate is 910, unchanged and up 7; Roy Hill powder is 752, down 3 and up 3; KUMBA powder is 841, down 3 and up 3; 57% Indian powder is 628, down 2 and up 10; Atlas powder is 717, down 3 and up 4; Tangshan iron concentrate is 996, up 7 and up 7 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 789.5, down 2.0 and up 2.0; i2605 is 765.0, down 2.5 and up 1.5; i2509 is 834.5, up 3.5 and up 31.5 [1]. - **FE Contracts**: FE01 is 101.53, up 2.31 and down 1.46; FE05 is 99.16, up 2.35 and down 1.47; FE09 is 104.67, up 2.12 and up 0.47 [1]. Price Differences - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: For i2601, it's 45.0, with a day - change of - 3.4 and a week - change of - 7.5; for i2605, it's 24.5, with a day - change of - 2.9 and a week - change of - 7.0; for i2509, it's - 69.5, with a day - change of - 8.9 and a week - change of - 37.0 [1]. - **Other Price Differences**: FE01 has a price difference of 3.14, with a day - change of 1.9 and a week - change of 12.7; FE05 has a price difference of 2.37, with a day - change of 0.4 and a week - change of 13.8; FE09 has a price difference of - 5.51, with a day - change of 7.3 and a week - change of 16.1 [1].

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 进入旺季需求检验时点 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/09/05 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 月度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算8月全球铁矿石发运周均值3277.54万吨，环比+204.54万吨；8月，澳洲发往中国周均值1462.02万吨，较上月变化+43.57万吨。 巴西发运量周均值892.78万吨，较上月变化+78.71万吨。45港到港量周均值2457.12万吨，较上月环比+17.70万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算8月国内日均铁水产量239.72万吨，较上月变化-1.54万吨。 ◆ 库存：8月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存13763.02万吨，较上月末变化+76.79万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值320.72万吨，较上月变 化+1.55万吨。钢厂进口铁矿石日耗周均值298.01万吨，较上月变化-2.40万吨 ...