研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货5月12日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,264.0 | 1,333.3 | 1,466.2 | 1,385.0 | 202.2 | 16 ...

来源 | CFC商品策略研究 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 从商品对于事件的定价反馈来看，敏感度优先级按照预期反转程度（航运）+估值程度（油化工，棉花，橡胶）等展开多头排序。 空头侧形成: a.由经贸关系缓和叠加印巴地缘阶段性解除形成的黄金利空定价； b.多国多边关系或存在系统性改善的可能，进而形成基于关税逻辑的升水回吐，蛋白粕阶段性偏弱； c.国内经济前景回暖，股指和债券定价显著分化。 1、后续贸易缓和的重要线索： 政策端双方非关税反制措施的逐步解除、贸易端美国订单的修复、转口贸易的变化，以及其他国家的 贸易谈判基准变化； 2、后续贸易谈判的判断： 鉴于格里尔仍坚持美国贸易逆差的表达，此前我国与美国谈判形成的"依靠购入美国农产品、能源缩减对 美逆差"的路径依然适用。但需要注意的是随着我国机电产品等对美输出比例攀升，后续逆差可能难以通过此方式收敛。对于非关税 反制措施，我国或留有调整空间，暂缓部分稀土、对美实体制裁等措施，但仍需要观察美方态度。此外，4月初美国针对我国800美元 以下低价值货物的关税征收尚未解除，观察后续的政策动向。 事件：2025年5月12日下午，中美联合发布"日内 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and then fluctuated upwards. The 06 contract closed at 1283 points, down 3.64%. Some shipping companies slightly reduced their freight rates for the second half of May, and the average online price for 40 - foot containers dropped to around $1750, close to the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. Although the expected peak season for the European line has not been completely falsified, the supply - surplus situation in the European line has been exacerbated by the overflow of capacity from the US line. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward drivers, and the peak - season space is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Directory EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2506**: The latest transaction price was 1283 points, down 3.64%. The trading volume was 45,529, and the open interest on one side was 38,142. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 408 [1]. - **EC2508**: The latest transaction price was 1556.4 points, down 2.45%. The trading volume was 28,090, and the open interest on one side was 36,029. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 910 [1]. - **EC2510**: The latest transaction price was 1273.2 points, down 2.94%. The trading volume was 6765, and the open interest on one side was 16,670. The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [1]. - **EC2512**: The latest transaction price was 1458.6 points, down 1.54%. The trading volume was 1379, and the open interest on one side was 3986 [1]. - **EC2602**: The latest transaction price was 1286.8 points, down 2.31%. The trading volume was 667, and the open interest on one side was 2736 [1]. - **EC2604**: The latest transaction price was 1173 points, down 1.76%. The trading volume was 360, and the open interest on one side was 1122 [1]. - **Total**: The total trading volume was 82,790, and the total open interest on one side was 98,685. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 1318 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **SCFIS (weekly)**: The latest index was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI ($/TEU)**: The latest price was $1200, down 4.8% from the previous period [1]. - **TCI (20GP) spot freight rate ($/TEU)**: The latest price was $1340, with no change from the previous period [1]. - **TCI (40GP) ($/FEU)**: The latest price was $2112, with no change from the previous period [1]. - **Basis spread**: The basis spread on the previous trading day was 96.07 points, up 5.2 points from the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - **Capacity**: The capacity of the Asia - Europe route was 514,749 TEU, a decrease of 456 TEU. The idle capacity ratio was 1.6% [4]. - **Average speed**: The average speed of container ships was 13.88 knots. The average speed of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 15.55 knots, and that of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships was 15.01 knots [4]. - **In - port capacity**: The in - port capacity in Rotterdam was 219,600 TEU, in Hamburg was 94,600 TEU, and in Singapore was 355,300 TEU [4]. - **Routing situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden was 11, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal was 1, and the south - bound traffic volume was 2 [4]. - **Time charter rates**: The 6 - 12 - month time charter rate for 9000 TEU ships was $105,000 per day, for 6500 TEU ships was $72,000 per day, and for 2500 TEU ships was $33,750 per day [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping line's EC contract showed a decline, with the 06 contract closing at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. Some shipping companies slightly reduced their May freight rates, and the average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, approaching the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. Although the expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume, it has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest View and Strategy Direction - The EC of the European container shipping line first rose and then fell. The 06 contract closed at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. MSK kept its freight rate unchanged in the 21st week, quoting $1450 for large containers, while HPL and OOCL slightly reduced their May freight rates to $1700 for large containers. Most shipping companies in the second half of May continued to use the first - half rates, and some slightly reduced them. The average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, close to the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. The expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume but has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2506: The latest成交价 is 1288.2 points, down 1.83%, with a trading volume of 53581, a unilateral open interest of 39510, long positions of 22192, short positions of 23424, and a net long position of - 1232 [1]. - EC2508: The latest成交价 is 1559.6 points, up 3.72%, with a trading volume of 39237, a unilateral open interest of 36138, long positions of 23359, short positions of 24483, and a net long position of - 1124 [1]. - EC2510: The latest成交价 is 1287.9 points, up 1.22%, with a trading volume of 11837, a unilateral open interest of 17426, and no long or short positions reported [1]. - EC2512: The latest成交价 is 1460.7 points, up 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1893 and a unilateral open interest of 4091 [1]. - EC2602: The latest成交价 is 1291.4 points, down 0.43%, with a trading volume of 982 and a unilateral open interest of 2735 [1]. - EC2604: The latest成交价 is 1182.6 points, down 0.81%, with a trading volume of 849 and a unilateral open interest of 1144 [1]. - The total trading volume is 108379, the total unilateral open interest is 101044, the total long positions of the top 20 members are 45551, the total short positions of the top 20 members are 47907, and the net long position is - 2356 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly spot index: SCFIS is 1379.07 points, down 3.5%; SCFI is $1200/TEU, down 4.8% [1]. - Daily spot freight rates: TCI(20GP) is $1340/TEU, down 1.6%; TCI(40GP) is $2112/FEU, down 3.3% [1]. - The basis difference was 90.87 points on the previous trading day, up 11.3 points from the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - Capacity: The capacity deployment on the Asia - Europe route is 516078 TEU, a decrease of 1 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 1.6%, with 1.0% for container ships over 17000 TEU, 0.4% for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships, and 1.2% for 8000 - 11999 TEU container ships [4]. - Average speed: The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots, 15.55 knots for container ships over 17000 TEU, and 15.01 knots for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships [4]. - Capacity in port: Rotterdam has 21.96 million TEU, Hamburg has 9.46 million TEU, and Singapore has 35.53 million TEU [4]. - Bypass situation: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 11, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 1, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [4]. - Time charter rates for 6 - 12 months: $105000 per day for 9000 TEU, $72000 per day for 6500 TEU, and $33750 per day for 2500 TEU [4].

| | | | | | | 研究所可以解放之IV | | | 2025/5/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1288.2 | -0.87 | 90.9 | 33882 | | 39510 | 3642 | | | EC2508 | | 1559.6 | 3.29 | - 180.5 | 39237 | | 36138 | 3696 | | | EC2510 | | 1287.9 | 1.81 | 91.2 | 11837 | | 17426 | 1332 | | | EC2512 | | 1460.7 | 0.74 | -81.6 | 1893 | | 4091 | 101 | | | EC2602 | | 1291.4 | 0.19 | 87.7 | 982 | | 2735 | 132 | | 期货 | EC2604 | | 1182.6 | -3.70 | 196 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The spot price of container shipping in the second half of May is basically the same as that in the first half. The supply pressure may increase due to the re - allocation of vessels from the US route. The June freight rate contract is likely to remain weak, while the August peak - season contract may be boosted by improved sentiment. It is recommended to participate based on short - term oversold rebound and pay attention to the progress of talks [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The online quotes for the second half of May are basically flat compared to the first half. The lowest price for Maersk's large container is $1480, and in the first half, the price was $1647 due to better demand. Other airlines' prices are mostly in the range of $1650 - $2000 [8]. - Supply: Affected by the sharp decline in US - route demand, airlines are re - allocating vessels to other routes, increasing supply pressure, especially in late May [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Although there is a short - term relaxation in Sino - US relations, it will still take a long time to reach an agreement. The June freight rate contract is hard to reverse its decline, while the August peak - season contract may be more positively affected. It is advisable to focus on short - term oversold rebounds and monitor the progress of talks [8]. 2. Industry News - Market in late April: From April 28th to 30th, the China Export Container Shipping Market declined slightly. Transport demand was weak before the holiday, and most route freight rates fell, dragging down the composite index [9]. - Manufacturing PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in April was 49, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [9]. - European Route: The eurozone's April composite PMI was 50.1, slightly above the boom - bust line, mainly dragged down by the service industry. The future European economic outlook is uncertain due to tariff issues [9]. - North American Route: In March, the US merchandise trade deficit reached $162 billion, a record high. The consumer confidence index in April continued to decline. The North American route's transport demand remained low, and the spot booking price increased slightly [10]. - Diplomatic News: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant from May 9th to 12th at the US request. China firmly opposes US tariff abuse and advocates equal and reciprocal dialogue [10]. - Other News: Talks on a Gaza cease - fire are close to completion. The US plans to charge additional fees for Chinese ships docking at US ports. Maersk will adjust the peak - season surcharge for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the US and Canada [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | May 4, 2025 | April 28, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | 1379.07 | 1429.39 | - 50.32 | - 3.5% | | SCFIS: US - West Route (Base Ports) | 1320.69 | 1230.28 | 90.41 | 7.3% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1312.2 | 1325.0 | 1288.2 | 1331.4 | - 24.0 | - 1.83 | 53581 | 39510 | 3642 | | EC2508 | 1503.6 | 1560.0 | 1559.6 | 1595.5 | 56.0 | 3.72 | 39237 | 36138 | 3696 | | EC2510 | 1272.4 | 1259.9 | 1287.9 | 1311.8 | 15.5 | 1.22 | 11837 | 17426 | 1332 | | EC2512 | 1457.6 | 1439.4 | 1460.7 | 1481.4 | 3.1 | 0.21 | 1893 | 4091 | 101 | | EC2602 | 1297.0 | 1263.8 | 1291.4 | 1317.2 | - 5.6 | - 0.43 | 982 | 2735 | 132 | | EC2604 | 1192.2 | 1166.0 | 1182.6 | 1194.0 | - 9.6 | - 0.81 | 849 | 1144 | 372 | [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European - route futures, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base - port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][19][20]

| 股指期货价差日报 | * | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年4月30日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 价 | 差 | 品 | 种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | IF期现价差 | -50.28 | 0.74 | 6.10% | 4.80% | | | | | IH期现价差 | -24.31 | -1.09 | 8.60% | 4.80% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -117.71 | 9.59 | 3.20% | 1.80% | IM期现价差 | -129.78 | 4.85 | 90.00% | 4.60% | | 次月-当月 | -33.00 | -1.40 | 1.60% | 10.10% | 季月-当月 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term tariff event shocks are暂缓, focus on subsequent economic impact and negotiation progress. - Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonality, with a rising trend in the first month after the holiday. - Different commodity sectors have different focuses, such as the impact of travel consumption on crude oil prices, and the influence of domestic policies on industrial products [60][62]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - **Key Events and Data**: During the domestic May Day holiday, important events and data include the US Trump's 100 - day State of the Union address on April 29, China's April Caixin PMI on April 30, etc. [4] - **Tariff Impact**: The tariff event's short - term impact on market sentiment has eased, but attention should be paid to its impact on the economy. Some countries have reached preliminary agreements with the US, while others are in the process of negotiation, counter - measures, or have adopted loose policies [5][7][8]. - **Political Bureau Meeting**: The April Political Bureau Meeting emphasized economic recovery, recognized increased external pressure, and called for more active macro - policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, to support the real economy [6]. High - Frequency Observation - **Sino - US Tariff Dispute**: After the US launched a tariff blitz on April 2, Sino - US trade volume has significantly decreased, and China's container exports to the US have been severely affected [9]. Stock Index - **Performance Support**: The overall A - share profitability has been recovering from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, which may support the stock index. Sectors such as social services, public utilities, and environmental protection have significant profit improvement and low valuations [14]. - **Policy Support**: In Q1 2025, the proportion of public funds' stock allocation increased, while the proportion of foreign capital's shareholding in A - shares decreased. Policy - based funds showed strong willingness to support the market, and large - scale purchases of index ETFs may lead to an upward trend in large - cap stock indices [17]. Treasury Bond - **Curve Flattening**: The long - term interest rate is at a low level, and the Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, waiting for policy or fundamental catalysts [29]. Container Shipping Futures - **Capacity Adjustment**: The number of cancellations on the US route has increased significantly, and some ships on the US route have been transferred to the European route, increasing the supply pressure. The capacity in May is gradually increasing [30][36]. Exchange Rate - **Renminbi Fluctuation**: Currently, the economic expectations, Sino - US interest rate differentials, and trade policy uncertainties are neutral. In the short term, the RMB is expected to remain strong and fluctuate within a range [43]. Strategy - **Calendar Effect**: Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonality, rising in the first month after the holiday. Different commodity sectors have different performance characteristics during the holiday [46]. Scenario - **Interest Rate Cut and Recession**: In recession samples, gold leads the commodity market, and the commodity sectors first decline and then rise. In non - recession samples, the performance of commodity sectors varies [49]. - **US "Stagflation"**: Historically, during stagflation periods, assets are highly differentiated. Gold and crude oil perform well in resisting stagflation [58]. Event - **US Inflation**: Tariffs may push up US inflation in 1 - 2 quarters, and the inflation elasticity this time may be greater than the previous round [55].

| | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | 2025年4月29日 | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 最新值 | 价差 品种 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | -51.02 | F期现价差 | -3.23 | 5.30% | 4.70% | | -23.23 | H期现价差 期现价差 | -2.42 | 9.40% | 5.40% | | -127.30 | IC期现价差 | 1.29 | 2.80% | 1.10% | | -148.06 | IM期现价差 | 4.85 | 85.00% | 4.00% | | -31.60 | 次月-当月 | 4.00 | 3.20% | 10.90% | | -90.00 | 李月-崇月 | 3.20 | 1.20% | 8.60% | | -114.80 | 元月-当月 | 1.60 | 1.20% | 14.40% | | -58.40 | F跨期价差 李月-次月 | -0.80 | ...