5月27日，郑州市市统计局和国家统计局郑州调查队发布4月全市经济运行情况。4月份，全市上下扎实 推进各项改革任务和政策举措落地见效，经济运行延续稳中向好发展态势。 工业生产平稳增长。4月全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长8.1%。规上工业37个行业大类中，近七成行 业生产保持增长。新材料产业、汽车制造业、电子信息工业增加值分别同比增长16.1%、13.9%、 12.3%，对规上工业贡献率合计66.5%，带动作用明显。1~4月，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长 8.6%。 消费市场持续回暖。4月份，全市社会消费品零售总额507亿元，同比增长6.7%。其中，限额以上单位 消费品零售额增长13.4%。全市限额以上单位的21类商品中，15类商品零售额实现同比增长，增长面 71.4%，比上月扩大14.3个百分点。网上订单保持活跃。限额以上单位通过公共网络实现的商品零售额 同比增长34.1%，连续8个月保持两位数高速增长。以旧换新扩围提质持续显效。4月全市限额以上单位 计算机及其配套产品、可穿戴智能设备、家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额分别同比增长2.3倍、1.4 倍、45.4%。1~4月，全市社会消费品零售总额2194亿元，同 ...

● 本报记者 连润 5月份，我国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）比上月上升0.5个百分点，制造业景气水平改善；出口集装箱 运价指数回升，港口货物吞吐量维持较高水平。 专家认为，近期公布的多项先行指标传递出的信号显示，在稳增长政策持续发力背景下，二季度我国经 济运行有望延续平稳态势。但也要看到，当前国际环境变数仍较多，多重风险交织叠加，经济回升向好 基础还需巩固，政策需进一步加力。 制造业PMI回升 数据显示，5月份，新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%，比上月上升2.8和3.7个百分点。 赵庆河表示，调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重启，进出口情况有所改善。 作为观察出口情况的重要指标，集装箱运价指数和港口货物吞吐量环比上涨。 上海航运交易所发布的最新数据显示，5月30日当周，中国出口集装箱运价指数报1117.61点，较上期上 涨0.9%。 上海航运交易所发布的中国出口集装箱运输市场周度报告显示，5月30日当周，中国出口集装箱运输市 场保持持续向好态势，外部形势缓和的利好消息继续支撑市场，多数航线市场运价继续走高，带动综合 指数上涨。 制造业PMI是重要的宏观经济先行指标。国家统计局5月31日发 ...

5月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，5 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，环比上升0.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为 50.3%，环比下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.4%，环比上升0.2个百分点，我国经济总体产出 保持扩张。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群向《证券日报》记者表示，5月份PMI指数出现回升，表明加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现。同时，生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出 现回升，表明在多项政策综合效应下，企业预期改善，生产经营活动有回暖迹象。 企业预期有所回升 5月份PMI环比上升，显示出经济运行有所回稳。分项指数变化显示，需求整体趋稳运行，企业生产止 降回升，新动能持续向好发展，大型企业回升向好，小型企业有所改善，企业预期有所回升。 具体来看，生产指数为50.7%，环比上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业生产活动有所加快；新 订单指数为49.8%，环比上升0.6个百分点。 值得关注的是，进出口指数均有回升。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%，分别环比上 升2. ...

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The production index for manufacturing activities returned to the expansion zone at 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting a recovery in production activities [1] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the business activity expectation index rose to 52.5%, indicating stable confidence among manufacturers regarding market development [1] Group 2: High-Tech and Equipment Manufacturing - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while the equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs were 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing month-on-month increases [2] - New orders indices for both high-tech and equipment manufacturing remained above 52%, indicating strong market demand [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating stable growth in the service sector [3] - The service sector business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday, with a business activity expectation index of 56.5%, reflecting optimism among service providers [3] - The construction industry continued to expand, with the civil engineering business activity index at 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points, indicating accelerated project construction [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The rise in manufacturing PMI in May suggests that proactive macroeconomic policies are beginning to show results, although the price index remains slightly down, indicating an oversupply situation [4] - Experts emphasize the need for continued government investment in public goods to support production and employment recovery, while also advocating for measures to boost domestic demand and enhance external trade [4] - The manufacturing sector's recovery is still under observation due to external uncertainties and the fact that many sub-indices remain below 50%, indicating potential risks [4]

Economic Overview - The province's economy continued to show a stable and positive development trend in April, with industrial growth remaining robust and investment and consumption growth accelerating, with key indicators surpassing the national average [4]. Industrial Growth - In April, the province's industrial added value above designated size increased by 8.0% year-on-year, exceeding the national average by 1.9 percentage points [1]. - The automotive and parts industry and the electronic information industry saw year-on-year added value growth of 17.3% and 13.0%, contributing 10.7% and 9.9% to the province's industrial growth, respectively [1]. - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry experienced a year-on-year added value growth of 23.0%, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to March, and outpacing the province's industrial growth by 15 percentage points [1]. - From January to April, the province's industrial added value increased by 8.6% year-on-year, higher than the national average by 2.2 percentage points [1]. Investment Trends - From January to April, fixed asset investment in the province grew by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1 percentage point compared to the first quarter and exceeding the national average by 2.4 percentage points [2]. - Investment in projects above 100 million yuan increased by 10.6% year-on-year, contributing 6.7 percentage points to the overall investment growth [2]. - Industrial investment surged by 26.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 4.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter, and outpacing the national average by 14.9 percentage points [2]. - Private investment showed vitality with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, slightly above the national average of 9.5% [2]. Consumption Performance - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 206.739 billion yuan, growing by 8.1% year-on-year, which is 3 percentage points higher than the national average [3]. - The retail sales of computers and related products, wearable smart devices, and home appliances saw significant year-on-year growth of 140.4%, 110.0%, and 42.6%, respectively [3]. - From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 946.793 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, surpassing the national average by 2.5 percentage points [3]. Emerging Industries - The province's high-tech manufacturing industry added value increased by 13.5% year-on-year in April, with the new energy vehicle industry and the next-generation information technology industry growing by 14.5% and 11.5%, respectively [3]. - High-tech manufacturing investment rose by 24.6% year-on-year from January to April, accelerating by 7.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3]. - The share of new energy power generation in the province's industrial power generation reached 23.5%, increasing by 1.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter and 6.1 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [3].

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]

其他热点还有：完善企业制度纲领性文件出台，特朗普持续打压美国高校。 工业企业利润增速持续改善 国家统计局27日发布的数据显示，1~4月份，规模以上工业企业利润增长1.4%，较1~3月份加快0.6个百 分点，延续恢复向好态势。4月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3%，较3月份加快0.4个百分 点。 国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表示，工业生产实现较快增长，带动规模以上工业企业利润增长加快。 特别是以装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的新动能行业利润增长较快，彰显工业经济发展韧性。 1~4月份，装备制造业利润同比增长11.2%，较1~3月份加快4.8个百分点；拉动全部规模以上工业利润增 长3.6个百分点；高技术制造业利润同比增长9.0%，较1~3月份加快5.5个百分点，增速高于全部规模以 上工业平均水平7.6个百分点。 "两新"政策效应持续显现。1~4月，专用设备、通用设备行业利润同比分别增长13.2%、11.7%，合计拉 动规模以上工业利润增长0.9个百分点。消费品以旧换新政策加力扩围效果明显，家用电力器具专用配 件制造、家用厨房电器具制造、非电力家用器具制造等行业利润分别增长17.2%、17.1%、15.1%。 ...