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美国11月非农数据超预期!高盛上调明年铜价预测!自动驾驶海内外消息共振丨20251217从华尔街到陆家嘴
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 02:04
Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.5% [1] - Following the data release, the U.S. dollar index fell below 98, while spot gold saw a slight increase, indicating heightened market caution as year-end approaches [1] - Analysts are divided on the implications of the data, with some predicting that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts in 2026 to support employment [2] Group 2: Copper Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400 per ton, driven by expectations that U.S. copper tariffs will be delayed until 2027, leading to continued premium accumulation in the U.S. [3] - The report suggests a short-term bullish outlook for copper, but warns of potential risks due to crowded speculative positions and overly optimistic projections regarding AI data center demand [3] Group 3: Tesla's Autonomous Driving Developments - Tesla is conducting tests for autonomous taxis without safety drivers, which has led to a surge in its stock price, reaching an all-time high [4] - The company is expected to accelerate its autonomous driving initiatives, paving the way for the upcoming Cybercab model, with regulatory approvals for L3 autonomous vehicles being granted in China [4] - Analysts caution that Tesla's stock price may have already priced in significant future growth, suggesting a reduction in positions and hedging against potential downturns [5]
GTC泽汇资本2025金鹰奖典盛于迪拜举行
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 01:17
GTC泽汇资本2025金鹰奖迪拜盛典盛大举行 全球布局迈入新阶段 在璀璨的迪拜夜色下,GTC泽汇资本于2025年举办的金鹰奖颁奖典礼圆满结束。本届盛会规模较往年更 为宏大,来自全球各地的合作伙伴与行业嘉宾齐聚一堂,共同见证平台过去一年的发展成果与未来愿 景。 全球参会人数再创新高 国际化布局稳步推进 今年的金鹰奖吸引超过千名行业人士到场,参会嘉宾覆盖亚洲、欧洲、中东、非洲及拉美等多区域,充 分显示了GTC泽汇资本国际业务的加速拓展。活动邀请多位跨领域代表到场,包括来自泰国商界的知名 人士以及国际板球运动员 Rahmanullah Gurbaz,使得盛典充满多元文化氛围。 多位长期合作的IB伙伴在交流中表示,当地投资者对GTC泽汇资本的关注度显著提高,客户增长与佣金 提升均十分明显,显示平台在多个新兴市场中已形成良好口碑。 行业圆桌论坛呈现全球视角 多项关键观点引发关注 本次盛典的重要环节——圆桌论坛,围绕全球金融市场趋势展开深入探讨。论坛主题涵盖外汇流动性变 化、黄金未来走势分析以及新兴市场的增长驱动力等多项议题。 GTC泽汇资本创始人兼CEO Jack Zheng 在分享中指出,市场波动既是挑战也是机遇,公 ...
早报(12.17)| 悬念升级!美联储主席人选再添劲敌;特朗普将全美讲话;中央财办最新发声
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-17 00:55
Group 1: Economic and Market Developments - Trump is set to interview current Federal Reserve Governor Waller for the position of Fed Chair, with an announcement expected in early January [1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.62% and the Nasdaq up 0.23%, while major tech stocks like Tesla and Meta saw gains [2] - The international oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to $55.27 per barrel, a decrease of nearly 2.73% [2] Group 2: Corporate News and Developments - AMD's CEO Lisa Su visited Lenovo's headquarters in Beijing, showcasing Lenovo's latest products and technologies [4] - Apple is expected to launch at least seven new iPhone models by fall 2027, including a foldable iPhone and a 20th-anniversary edition [5] - XPeng Motors received a license for L3 autonomous driving road tests in Guangzhou, while Huawei's Hongmeng Zhixing began internal testing for L3 capabilities [6] Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Changes - The EU plans to abandon the 2035 ban on internal combustion engines, allowing some plug-in hybrid vehicles and reducing emissions targets [9] - China's Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on EU pork products, ranging from 4.9% to 19.8%, effective from December 17 [22] - The Chinese government approved the establishment of a joint venture between Chilean companies for lithium mining, with conditions to ensure fair supply [15] Group 4: Industry Trends and Forecasts - Morgan Stanley predicts a copper supply deficit of 60,000 tons by 2026, indicating a tightening market [20] - The automotive sector in China saw significant growth in commercial vehicle production and sales, with November figures showing a year-on-year increase of 18.6% [21] - The postal industry in China reported a 6.7% increase in business revenue year-on-year for the first eleven months of the year [21]
首批“创易融”落地启航,以金融创新赋能实业未来
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2025-12-17 00:07
Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the launch of the "Chuangyi Rong" financial service product, which aims to support the growth of technology-based SMEs in Nanjing through a collaborative effort among various financial institutions [1][2] - The "Chuangyi Rong" product provides quick and efficient credit enhancement services for enterprises involved in equity investments managed by the Chuangtou Group, utilizing an online application channel and a comprehensive pre-credit model [2] - The product is part of the "Zijin Accompanying Plan," which integrates various financial services to offer customized support throughout the lifecycle of enterprises, demonstrating the effectiveness of the plan in practice [1][2] Group 2 - Zijin Investment Group has implemented the "Zijin Accompanying Plan," which brings together banks, securities, trusts, and other financial services to provide comprehensive financial support for SMEs [1] - Zijin Guarantee has introduced various innovative products, including "Zijiyi Guarantee," "Danyi Loan," and "Equipment Guarantee," cumulatively providing over 51 billion yuan in guarantee services to nearly 10,000 enterprises [2] - The collaboration among Zijin Guarantee, Chuangtou Group, the Stock Exchange, and partner banks aims to break the traditional isolation of financial services and create a closed-loop ecosystem for funding, credit assurance, market transactions, and bank financing [2]
日元迎来30年拐点:日本央行加息至0.75%,宽松时代正式落幕
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 23:42
Group 1 - Japan's manufacturing activity showed a slower contraction in December, with the PMI rising from 48.7 in November to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold of 50 for the sixth consecutive month [1][36] - The service sector's growth momentum weakened, with the service PMI declining from 53.2 to 52.5, leading to a composite PMI drop from 52.0 to 51.5 [2][37] - Despite a slowdown in factory output, the pace of declining goods demand has eased to the lowest level in a year and a half, indicating potential stabilization in the manufacturing sector [2][37] Group 2 - Japan's government approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD) for the fiscal year 2025, marking the largest economic stimulus plan since the COVID-19 pandemic [3][38] - The budget is significantly higher than the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen and is primarily financed through new debt issuance, reflecting a proactive stance on economic support [3][38] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the short-term policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, signaling a move towards monetary policy normalization [4][40] - This rate hike is driven by persistent inflation pressures, with Japan's inflation rate remaining above the 2% target for nearly four years [6][51] - The central bank's confidence in a wage-inflation cycle is bolstered by expectations of significant wage increases due to labor shortages [6][41] Group 4 - Japan's fiscal spending is expanding, with the initial budget for the fiscal year 2026 projected to exceed 120 trillion yen, driven by rising social welfare costs and defense spending [4][39][54] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are growing as the government prepares to issue a large volume of bonds, pushing the benchmark 10-year government bond yield to an 18-year high [4][54] Group 5 - In the U.S., November non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, rebounding from a decline of 105,000 in October, indicating resilience in the labor market despite trade policy uncertainties [7][42] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, influenced by a 43-day government shutdown that distorted data collection [7][42] - Retail sales in October remained flat, reflecting cautious consumer spending amid rising living costs, with core retail sales showing a 0.8% increase [7][45][46] Group 6 - U.S. business activity growth slowed to a six-month low in December, with the composite PMI dropping from 54.2 to 53.0, indicating weakening demand in both manufacturing and services [12][47] - Input price inflation reached a near three-year high, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation [12][49]
非农数据掀波澜:美债收益率曲线交易热度飙升 利差扩至四年高位
智通财经网· 2025-12-16 23:38
Group 1 - The unexpected rise in unemployment rate in November adds uncertainty to the mixed signals surrounding the U.S. economic outlook, leading bond traders to favor short-term U.S. Treasuries over long-term ones [1] - The yield spread between 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries has widened to its largest extent in over four years, reflecting market expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates at least twice next year despite persistent inflation and strong economic growth [1] - The "curve steepening" trade is gaining traction, betting that the yield gap between short-term and long-term debt will continue to expand, with the upcoming release of November consumer price data set to further test this trade [1] Group 2 - A significant large-scale spread trade in the futures market aligns with the widening yield spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries, indicating a profit of $3 million within a day as the spread increased from 132 basis points to approximately 137 basis points [2] - As of the week ending December 15, investor direct long positions increased by 6 percentage points, shifting from neutral to long, while direct short positions remained unchanged [2] Group 3 - In the SOFR options market, there has been a notable increase in risk exposure for options expiring on March 26, June 26, and September 26, particularly for various call and put options, as traders hedge against potential dovish and hawkish policy scenarios from the Federal Reserve [5] - The largest open interest is observed at the 96.50 strike price for March 26 options, with significant positions also at the 96.375 strike price [7] Group 4 - The premium for put options used to hedge U.S. Treasury risks has continued to tilt towards bearish options, indicating strong demand for Treasuries amid expectations that long-term yields will underperform compared to short- and medium-term yields [10] - The steepness of the yield curve between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries reached its highest level since November 2021, exceeding 137 basis points [10]
破局“首公里” 金融陪伴企业跑赢科创“马拉松”
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-16 23:32
Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the integration of technological and industrial innovation to develop new productive forces, highlighting the role of financial services in supporting the entire lifecycle of technological innovation [1] Group 1: Challenges in Financing Technology Startups - Technology innovation is characterized as a high-investment, long-cycle "marathon," with the most challenging phase often being the initial stage where startups face difficulties in obtaining loans due to lack of revenue and collateral [2] - Shenzhen Guarantee Group has introduced the "Crossing Loan" program to address the financing challenges faced by startups, providing 4 million yuan in initial loan support to a technology company focused on AI-driven manufacturing systems [2] Group 2: Credit and Financing Solutions - The People's Bank of China in Shenzhen is promoting collaboration among local credit platforms, government financing guarantee institutions, and banks to provide credit scoring and guarantee services for "no-loan" technology enterprises, resulting in 2 billion yuan in loans approved for 69 companies through the "Crossing Loan" program [3] - The "Technology Startup Pass" initiative offers a digital credit solution for early-stage tech companies, utilizing public and industry data to create comprehensive credit scores and reports, helping over 5,000 companies secure 8 billion yuan in loans [3] Group 3: Investment and Support for Technological Development - Shenzhen Zhujidongli Technology Co., known for its humanoid robots, has attracted investment from Dongfang Fuhai, which issued a 400 million yuan technology innovation bond to support hard tech sectors like AI and semiconductors [4] - Guangdong Blue Potential Marine Technology Co. has developed underwater robots and received nearly 20 million yuan in integrated financing support through a collaborative model involving equity investment and credit loans, aiding in their production expansion [6][7] Group 4: Cross-Border Financial Innovations - The "Kehui Tong" pilot program facilitates cross-border flow of innovation elements between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, with over 77 million yuan in research funds successfully transferred to research institutions in the Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Cooperation Zone [8][9] - Financial institutions are expanding their services to include high-end research talent and providing comprehensive financial services to core research institutions and scientists in the cooperation zone [9]
香港失业率维持3.8%
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-16 23:32
香港失业率维持3.8% 中新社香港12月16日电 (记者 魏华都)香港特区政府统计处16日公布,2025年9月至11月香港经季节性调 整的失业率为3.8%,与上一阶段(2025年8月至10月)相同。就业不足率在该两段期间维持1.6%。 12月16日,香港特区政府统计处公布,2025年9月至11月香港经季节性调整的失业率为3.8%,与上 一阶段(2025年8月至10月)相同。图为铜锣湾一间药妆店有工人搬运物料。(资料照片) 中新社记者 张炜 摄 香港特区政府劳工及福利局局长孙玉菡表示,香港经济稳健扩张,加上消费信心有所改善,应会继续为 整体劳工市场带来支持。然而,一些行业的就业情况或仍会因其业务面对挑战而承受压力。 编辑:郭晋嘉 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 本文为转载内容,授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview"),看更多精彩财经资讯。 大新金融集团首席经济及策略师温嘉炜认为,虽然就业市道仍存在压力,但今年下半年香港零售销售逐 步回暖,而且楼市表现平稳,相关行业招聘人手的意欲或有望改善 ...
陆家嘴财经早餐2025年12月17日星期三
Wind万得· 2025-12-16 22:57
1. 中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神指出,扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务,要从供需两侧发力提振消费,统筹提振消费和扩 大投资。 另外,明年要从供需两端发力稳定房地产市场。供给端要严控增量、盘活存量,加快消化库存。需求端要采取更多针对性措施,充分释放居民 刚性和改善性需求。 1.据中国证券报,回望2025年,"支持性"始终是货币政策实施的核心基调。 展望2026年,"支持性"基调有望延续。央行将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策, 坚持精准施策与协同发力,灵活运用降准降息等工具,促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 更好地运用结构性货币政策工具,精准滴灌实体经济的重点领 域和薄弱环节。此外,还将继续探索拓展中央银行宏观审慎与金融稳定功能,维护金融市场稳定,坚决守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。 2. 海南省政府发布通告,自2025年12月18日起,海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关。 封关后,加工增值免关税政策迎来优化调整;进口"零关税"商品税 目由1900多个扩大到6600多个,占全部商品税目比例由21%扩大至74%。 3.围绕规范平台经济、食品安全以及反垄断反不正当竞争工作,市场监管总局将有一系列新规 ...
全球大公司要闻 | “亚洲锂都”拟一次性注销27宗采矿权,江特电机提出“异议申请”
Wind万得· 2025-12-16 22:57
Group 1 - 360 announced that it is addressing false statements made by a former executive, clarifying that the individual never held a core management position and that the company's gaming business revenue recognition complies with accounting standards, denying any allegations of financial fraud [2] - Ford has canceled multiple electric vehicle models, including the F150 Lightning, leading to a projected revenue decrease of $19.5 billion, with most losses accounted for in the current quarter [2] - PayPal has applied for a banking license to expand its loan services and introduce interest-bearing savings accounts, aiming to reduce reliance on third-party institutions [2] Group 2 - XPeng Motors has obtained an L3 autonomous driving road test license in Guangzhou and plans to launch L4 level vehicles by 2026 [5] - Jiangte Motor announced that it has submitted an objection regarding the proposed cancellation of its lithium mining rights in Yichun, following regulatory actions [5] - Jingyu Medical received regulatory approval for its invasive brain-computer interface products aimed at treating drug addiction, marking a significant milestone in mental health treatment [5] Group 3 - Apple plans to significantly expand its iPhone product line over the next two years, including the release of at least seven new models by fall 2027 [8] - Tesla intends to start battery cell production at its Berlin factory in 2027, with an annual capacity of 8 GWh [8] - Microsoft emphasized its AI capabilities, stating that its growth is not solely dependent on OpenAI, while also rolling out updates for Windows 11 [8] Group 4 - Honda plans to increase its stake in parts supplier Astemo by 21%, aiming for full control to enhance its automotive supply chain integration [11] - Samsung Electronics is negotiating 2nm orders with AMD while ramping up its foundry business for Intel's PCH chips [11] - SK Hynix warned of a continued DRAM chip shortage until 2028 and is collaborating with NVIDIA on AI-specific SSDs [11] Group 5 - Volkswagen will close its Dresden factory, transitioning it into an AI and chip research hub as part of a broader cost-cutting strategy [13] - Porsche is adjusting its 718 EV platform to accommodate internal combustion engines due to slowing demand for electric vehicles [13] - Mercedes-Benz reported significant usage of its driver assistance systems and is focusing on high-quality development in China [14]