炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 高盛首席律师被曝与爱泼斯坦有瓜葛 欧飒 美国司法部最新公开的一批涉及美国已故富商杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的文件显示，美国高盛集团首席律师凯 瑟琳·鲁姆勒在加入高盛前曾接受爱泼斯坦的贵重礼物，并为后者应对有关其性犯罪的媒体问询"支 招"，而爱泼斯坦则为鲁姆勒谋求脸书等大企业的高级职位出谋划策。 鲁姆勒曾在民主党籍前总统奥巴马时期任白宫法律顾问，2020年加入高盛。据路透社3日援引文件内容 报道，鲁姆勒在2014年至2019年7月间与爱泼斯坦有大量交流。爱泼斯坦与大批美国和欧洲政商名流交 往密切，2008年因教唆未成年人卖淫被定罪，2019年7月再次因涉嫌性犯罪被捕，2019年8月死在狱中， 被判定为"自杀"。然而广为流传的说法是，爱泼斯坦因掌握一份用于勒索知名人士的"客户名单"而死于 非命。 2018年，一个名称被司法部隐去的第三方在电子邮件中告诉鲁姆勒，爱泼斯坦想给鲁姆勒的苹果手表配 一根表带。鲁姆勒回复说："我喜欢爱马仕那款，可以的话，我想要40毫米、不锈钢款的爱马仕……" 2019年1月，她对爱泼斯坦送给她更多礼物表示感谢，对爱泼斯坦以"叔 ...

里昂发布研报称，预期腾讯控股(00700)2026年的游戏业务将保持双位数增长，广告业务增长约20%，重 申公司"高度确信跑赢大市"评级。该行预期腾讯去年第四季业绩稳固，预计季度总收入同比增13.5%至 1,957亿元人民币，经调整EBIT则预计升20.6%至718亿元人民币。该行相信，线上游戏业务可能为公司 带来惊喜。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，预期腾讯控股(00700)2026年的游戏业务将保持双位数增长，广告 业务增长约20%，重申公司"高度确信跑赢大市"评级。该行预期腾讯去年第四季业绩稳固，预计季度总 收入同比增13.5%至1,957亿元人民币，经调整EBIT则预计升20.6%至718亿元人民币。该行相信，线上 游戏业务可能为公司带来惊喜。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Duan Yongping has sold shares of China Shenhua and purchased shares of Kweichow Moutai, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [1][19] - On January 27, Duan sold 1.5 million shares of China Shenhua in three transactions at prices of 43.15, 43.28, and 43.43 HKD, with total proceeds of approximately 65 million HKD [1][19] - On the same day, he bought 77,194 shares of Kweichow Moutai at prices ranging from 1329.72 to 1331.00 CNY, with a total investment of around 100 million CNY [1][19] Group 2 - Following the purchase, Kweichow Moutai's stock price surged over 12% in the following five trading days, reaching a latest price of 1524.18 CNY, resulting in a paper profit exceeding 10 million CNY for Duan [4][22] - Duan believes that the introduction of the iMoutai platform will significantly enhance the brand's market presence and consumer trust, effectively creating a new demand for Moutai [6][25] - He estimates that Moutai's daily production is around 250,000 bottles, and the iMoutai platform has intercepted 540 million abnormal behaviors monthly, indicating a strong demand and consumer interest [6][25] Group 3 - Duan suggests that Kweichow Moutai should consider annual price increases of 3% to 5% to align with inflation and market demand, as the brand has the capacity to raise prices without losing consumer interest [7][28] - There are concerns from the public regarding the impact of price increases on consumption rates, with some suggesting a more conservative increase of 1% [8][29] - Duan counters that a 1% increase is insufficient and that a moderate annual increase is preferable to sporadic larger hikes [8][29] Group 4 - The demand for Kweichow Moutai is reportedly increasing, with strong sales across various product lines, indicating a robust market for the brand [10][30] - Duan emphasizes that the iMoutai platform is well-timed to capture genuine consumer demand, especially during festive seasons when Moutai consumption typically rises [10][31] - He believes that the expansion of the consumer base through iMoutai can compensate for any potential declines in sales due to broader economic conditions [10][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In Q4 2025, overseas bond funds mainly increased their positions in MBS (+2.6pp) and treasury bonds (+2.4pp), reduced derivatives (-5.3pp), and slightly increased corporate bonds. However, they were still significantly underweight in treasury bonds compared to the benchmark index. The funds slightly extended the duration in Q4 2025 [3]. - In the credit - bond portfolio, in Q4 2025, funds mainly increased their positions in the communications (+1.1pp) and cyclical consumption (+0.5pp) sectors, and reduced their positions in the banking (-0.7pp) and energy (-0.3pp) sectors. The overall credit quality of the portfolio slightly improved as funds mainly reduced their positions in BBB - rated bonds and increased their positions in AA - rated bonds [2][3]. - From an individual bond perspective, the companies that funds increased the most in Q4 last year included internet technology companies such as Meta and Amazon. In absolute terms, the companies that funds were overweight compared to the benchmark index were concentrated in sectors like banking, automotive, and tobacco, and they also maintained an overweight position in sectors such as TMT and health insurance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Analysis Sample - The report selected US actively managed funds with a large asset management scale and timely data disclosure as observation samples, including comprehensive investment - grade funds and pure corporate - bond funds. Comprehensive funds were used as samples for analyzing the large - asset allocation of funds, and all sample funds were used for analyzing the credit - bond portfolio [3]. 3.2 Asset Allocation - As of Q4 2025, overseas bond funds mainly increased their positions in MBS (+2.6pp), treasury bonds (+2.4pp), and slightly increased corporate bonds compared to Q3, while reducing derivatives (-5.3pp). However, they were still significantly underweight in treasury bonds compared to the benchmark index [3]. - In Q4 last year, the funds slightly extended the duration [3]. 3.3 Credit - Bond Portfolio - **Industry Allocation**: In Q4 2025, funds mainly increased their positions in the communications (+1.1pp) and cyclical consumption (+0.5pp) sectors, and reduced their positions in the banking (-0.7pp) and energy (-0.3pp) sectors. The banking sector still had a relatively high proportion in credit bonds, accounting for 26% as of Q4 2025 [3]. - **Comparison with the Benchmark Index**: Compared with the previous quarter, funds were overweight in the communications (+0.3pp) and cyclical consumption (+0.1pp) sectors and underweight in the technology (-0.2pp), banking (-0.1pp), and power (-0.1pp) sectors. Compared with Q4 2024, in 2025, funds were mainly overweight in the technology (+0.4pp), cyclical consumption (+0.4pp), communications (+0.3pp), and insurance (+0.2pp) sectors and underweight in the banking (-0.5pp) and power (-0.2pp) sectors [3]. - **Rating Allocation**: Funds mainly reduced their positions in BBB - rated bonds and increased their positions in AA - rated bonds, with the credit quality of the portfolio slightly improving. In the industry distribution, funds maintained a BBB - rated - based allocation in most industries but carried out credit downgrades in the communications, cyclical consumption, and public - utility sectors [2]. - **Individual Bond Analysis**: The companies that funds increased the most in Q4 last year included internet technology companies such as Meta and Amazon, possibly affected by new - bond supply. In absolute terms, the companies that funds were overweight compared to the benchmark index were concentrated in sectors such as banking (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS), automotive (e.g., Ford, General Motors, Hyundai), and tobacco; in addition, funds also maintained an overweight position in sectors such as TMT (e.g., Oracle, Meta, Broadcom) and health insurance, which were sectors with attractive valuations [2].

Group 1 - The investment strategy is focused on three main directions: 1) Opportunities in technology related to AI, including computing power, storage, electricity, and applications, 2) Economic recovery leading to a "stronger stronger" market style, with cyclical stocks likely to perform better in the latter half, 3) Considering the potential for style rotation and bottom reversal in sectors like food and beverage, agriculture, social services, and pharmaceuticals, which have underperformed for three consecutive years but have a higher probability of outperforming in the fourth year [1] - The AI industry trend's progress depends on breakthroughs in both application and consumption ends, with a focus on the Hang Seng Internet sector [1] - In the early stages of a bull market, funds prefer high-growth sectors, while in later stages, they concentrate on main lines, making it harder for new funds to profit, whereas cyclical stocks, with low valuations and high beta, are likely to show good performance as fundamentals improve [1] Group 2 - The profitability of bulk chemicals is expected to hit a ten-year low by the second half of 2025 due to weak demand and the end of supply-side increments, with industry-wide losses or minimal profits observed in petrochemical products [3] - The fixed asset completion growth rate in the chemical raw materials and products industry is projected to turn negative starting June 2025, with limited new capacity expected in 2026-2027 [3] - The chemical raw materials and products sector is at a turning point from active destocking to passive restocking, with downstream textile and plastic products experiencing continuous inventory declines [3] Group 3 - The strategic importance of global rare earth resources is increasing, entering a new era of high-quality development, with supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and robotics expected to drive long-term growth [6] - A significant outflow of funds from bank stocks has been noted, with A-shares and H-shares showing differing performances, indicating that A-share banks are more affected by fund outflows and style influences [6] - The investment value of banks in 2026 is expected to stem from a reassessment of systemic risks and the stable return characteristics of bank equities under the RMB asset allocation framework [6]

在腾讯2026年员工大会上，马化腾在提及AI应用元宝即将展开的春节分10亿元现金活动时曾表示，希 望能重现11年前的微信红包的时刻。然而，"上元宝，分10亿"活动开启仅四天后，却迎来了戏剧性的转 折。2月4日，元宝分红包活动链接遭到微信屏蔽，前者也迅速作出调整，将分享机制进行改为口令形 式。与此同时，腾讯股价也延续了连日来的跌势，截至发稿时股价561.5港元，跌3.36%。 2月4日上午，多位网友发现元宝分红包活动链接无法正常打开，南都湾财社记者实测发现，点入链接后 页面显示"网页包含诱导分享、关注等诱导行为内容，请长按网址复制后使用浏览器访问"。 很快，微信也通过公众号"微信派"做出回应，微信派发布的《关于第三方诱导分享行为的打击公告》显 示，近期微信发布了《针对第三方违规行为的打击公告》，对以春节为主题集中爆发的过度营销、诱导 分享等违规行为进行打击。 在此背景下，微信收到用户针对元宝的反馈和投诉，其相关春节营销活动 存在通过"做任务""领红包"等方式诱导用户高频分享链接到微信群等场景，干扰平台生态秩序、影响用 户体验、对用户造成骚扰。 根据《微信外部链接内容管理规范》，通过利益诱惑，诱导用户分享以及传播 ...

智通财经APP获悉，Prosus NV与亚马逊(AMZN.US)旗下云服务部门达成了一项多年期的云计算和人工 智能协议，该协议将整合这些领域的合同，从而实现两位数百分比的成本节约。Prosus 生态系统负责人 Igor Cardoso 在接受采访时表示，与亚马逊网络服务公司(AWS)达成的这项为期三年的协议价值"数亿美 元"，但他拒绝透露交易的确切金额。 在首席执行官Fabricio Bloisi 的领导下，Prosus正在进行重组，专注于欧洲、印度和拉丁美洲，发展人工 智能能力，以加快和扩大其在这三个地区的业务，力争到 2028 年实现价值翻番。 Cardoso表示："我们的战略是在整个拉丁美洲推广我们的大型商业模式。然后我们计划在欧洲也这样 做，之后再逐步扩展到印度。"该公司在拉丁美洲已经拥有巴西食品配送和物流运营商iFood、旅游公司 Despegar以及在线分类信息公司OLX。 Cardoso指出，虽然企业无法跨地区共享数据，但模型标准化使得在新司法管辖区构建模型变得更容 易、更快捷。Cardoso称，Prosus 拥有一支约 1000 名人工智能专家的团队，他们将与亚马逊的同行合 作，共同开发应用程 ...

一低位：恒生科技指数最新估值为22倍，无论纵向看历史分位，还是横向相比纳斯达克（35倍）和A股 创业板指（43倍），都极具性价比； 一拐点：由于小作文引发情绪恐慌，恒生科技主要指数跌落年线（也称为"250日均线"）。该位置也是 本轮上行行情的支撑线，历次大行情（如2016~2017年、2020~2021年）均未显著跌破。近日破位下跌 之际，超20亿元资金涌入相关ETF，积极博弈修复反弹； 二催化：春节期间，DeepSeek大模型将更新升级；AI应用红包活动开启，两大催化有望加速AI国民化 和商业化进程，互联网平台广告、游戏、电商、传媒等传统业务也将迎来第二"增长极"。 截至2月4日，恒生科技指数自去年10月高点回撤超19%，触及历次回调极值。 华夏基金提示，港股短期回调为春季躁动提供配置机遇。 综合技术面、资金面动向，恒生科技、港股通科技等相关ETF或出现非理性下跌后的修复，即"一低位 一拐点二催化"底部布局机会。 如港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）及其联接C（025806.OF），被动跟踪国证港股通科技指数，风格 不漂移、持仓透明，且接近满仓，布局效率高。从指数特征来看，其成分股精选港股通标的，流 ...

松壑/文 从月初的元宝红包链接在各大微信群、朋友圈的疯狂铺开，到如今微信正式公告开始封禁导流至元宝的 外部链接，整个过程用了短短四天时间。 腾讯组织机器内部之间的分歧与摇摆，第一次以产品策略变化的形式被外界真切感知。 动员太满、变化太快、节奏过于完整，以至于许多用户开始怀疑，这是不是腾讯 为了导流元宝而提前 策划好的一场剧本。 在这个剧本猜想中，腾讯先大胆启用微信导流，待到快速的红包效应让元宝用户数据增长到阶段目标 后，紧急叫停再以微信出面来重新扮演"尊重用户体验"的Flag。 一边是对增长的期待。窗口期短，AI入口要抢，能拉多少算多少。红包、裂变、社交链叠加，是最快 见效的办法； 另一边是对平台价值的恪守。微信群是基础设施，是工作场、家庭场、生活场的混合体，一旦被营销机 制长期侵占，伤的不是一个产品，是整张网的秩序感。 这两套逻辑，本来就不在同一条轨道上。所以这一次的"前几天放，后面封"，与其说是剧情反转，不如 说是换了一只脚在踩油门，另一只脚在踩刹车。 如果这是剧本，那协同成本会高得离谱。增长、产品、平台治理、风控、法务、公关，得在同一个时间 点，对同一件事达成同一种默契。 放多少，放多久，什么时候收，怎 ...