高盛大宗商品研究小组在他们的报告中将年底金价预测上调至3700美元，并指出存在上行尾部风险，最高 可能达到4500美元。 现货黄金价格在4月11日已创下3245美元/盎司的历史新高，在4月2日美国宣布加征关税后的跌幅达5% ，但 之后大幅回升，此前的下跌主要是因为投资者在股市大跌时清算黄金以满足追加保证金的要求——这与过 去包括2008年和2020年在内的大市场压力事件相一致。虽然投机性持仓急剧下降，但ETF持仓却因经济衰 退担忧加剧而上升，东方的实物需求似乎也随着价格下跌而上升。 上周后半段，金价大幅回升，主要是因为投机者在不确定性持续存在的情况下买回了之前清仓的头寸。 考虑到央行需求强于预期，以及经济衰退风险增加对ETF流入的推动，高盛将年末黄金预测上调至3700美 元/盎司（之前为3300美元），预计区间为3650-3950美元/盎司（之前为3250-3520美元）。高盛报告写道： 迄今为止，获准投资黄金的10家保险公司约占整个行业的57%，截至2024年第三季度的总资产约为20万亿 人民币。这意味着，如果1%的允许配置全部用完，将有约2000亿人民币的资金流入黄金（按当前现货价计 算，约为900万盎司 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 to $3,700 per ounce, reflecting increased central bank demand and rising recession risks [1][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Demand - Central bank gold purchases have exceeded expectations, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its monthly purchase forecast from 70 tons to 80 tons, still below the average of 86 tons per month since 2022 but significantly higher than the pre-2022 baseline of 17 tons [7]. - The strong recovery in central bank demand is a key factor behind the upward revision of the gold price forecast [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Uncertainty and ETF Inflows - Increased recession fears have led to a rise in ETF holdings, further boosting gold prices, with current spot gold reaching $3,237 per ounce [3][6]. - Historical trends indicate that during periods of recession concerns, ETF inflows often exceed levels implied by Federal Reserve interest rates, suggesting a potential acceleration in gold demand [8]. Group 3: Extreme Scenarios - In extreme scenarios, if central bank purchases rise to 110 tons per month and ETF holdings rebound to pandemic levels, gold prices could potentially reach $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025, although this is considered a low-probability event [2][8]. - Goldman Sachs has factored in a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, which could further drive ETF inflows and push gold prices to $3,880 per ounce [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its bullish stance on gold, emphasizing its unique position as a hedge against recession risks amid recent pressures in the U.S. bond market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a recession in the U.S. has limited impact on Chinese assets, but if it evolves into a recession trade, the scope and intensity of the impact could significantly increase. A tracking system has been established to monitor macroeconomic "soft/hard" data, core operating data of companies, and leading confidence indicators, along with a timeline of key events to help investors understand the current phase [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - Current U.S. economic indicators show strong hard data but weakening soft data, with stable CPI and non-farm employment numbers, while PMI for manufacturing and services has weakened significantly [3]. - As of Q4 2024, 55% of sample companies still show accelerating core operating indicators, but analyst forecasts have begun to decline, with expectations for further downtrends in Q1 and Q2 2025 [3]. Group 2: Earnings and Recession Phases - Historical transitions from recession expectations to actual recession trades are marked by continuous declines in corporate EPS, particularly in high-interest environments [7]. - The recession cycle can be divided into three trading phases: expectation trading, first-round recession trading, and second-round recession trading, with the first phase typically occurring after economic overheating and prior to interest rate hikes [7]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The performance of the financing industry, including investment banks and consumer credit companies, serves as a leading indicator of confidence cycles during recession trades, with significant average declines observed in previous downturns [8]. - Recent earnings data from major companies in various sectors, including investment banking and consumer credit, indicate varying trends, with some companies experiencing significant fluctuations in revenue and operating metrics [5]. Group 4: Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. companies is critical, with a focus on core cyclical companies' operating data and guidance, especially in the investment banking and consumer credit sectors [13]. - Key macroeconomic data and earnings calls from major companies will be closely monitored to assess the potential short-term impacts on Chinese assets and identify long-term investment opportunities [14].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本报记者 郭婧婷 北京报道 近期，证监会发布《上市公司监管指引第 11 号——上市公司破产重整相关事项》（以下简称"《指 引》"），《指引》从资本公积金转增比例、入股定价机制、锁定期设置等七大维度重塑市场规则，被 业界称为"史上最严重整新规"。 《中国经营报》记者就市场关注的话题，专访中金公司投资银行部债务重组业务委员会主席、董事总经 理王子龙，其从政策设计逻辑、市场套利空间压缩、中小股东权益保护机制等角度，拆解新规如何重构 中国破产重整生态。 王子龙认为，《指引》是我国资本市场破产重整监管的重要制度升级，通过量化重整方案边界，限制资 本公积金转增比例、划定入股价格红线和设置锁定期，填补了监管空白，保护中小股东权益，压缩套利 空间，引导市场回归理性。新政推动上市公司通过实质举措修复基本面，鼓励产业资本参与重整，打击 壳资源炒作和低价套利行为，同时严格限定债务重组收益确认时点，避免企业虚增利润。 在王子龙看来，整体而言，新政有助于整治上市公司重整"低价套利""注水式转增""壳资源炒作""报表 式重组"四大乱象，推动破产重整向规范化、法治化方向发展。 新规填补关键 ...

无需对中概股退市过多担忧。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪近日发表了中国股票策略。他认为， 无需对中概股退市过多担忧，预计本次影响较小。 瑞银预计，这次任何潜在影响都更加可控，因为：1）许多大型中概股都已双重上市，2）对于双重 上市的中概股，香港股票的比例在过去三年中增加30 个百分点，达到总市值的 60% 左右，3）香港 市场的南向持股比例显著提高，从 2021 年占市值的 5% 上升到目前的 11-12%。尽管如此，未来走 向的不确定性可能在短期内继续令股价承压。 瑞银还指出，从美国退市将产生以下影响：1）获得美国更大资金池的机会减少，2）成交量下降， 香港的换手率过去比美国低约 0.2%，3）对中美金融脱钩的担忧增加，及 4）投资者群体缩小、流 动性降低可能拉低估值倍数，尽管这难以量化。"不过，我们注意到，近年来中概股的筹资活动减 少，而香港市场的作用增强。此外，香港的成交量近来也大幅回升，换手率几乎与美国持平。港交所 此前就中概股在香港二次上市的要求提供指引。" 本文由公众号IPO早知 ...

美东时间4月2日下午，美国总统特朗普正式宣布酝酿已久的关税新政，核心内容包括对所有国家征收10% 的"基准关税"，以及对部分贸易伙伴征收更高的"个性化对等关税"，即任何一个国家对美国征收多少关 税，美国将以同等力度回敬。 全球股市遭抛售 新政一出，全球资本市场迅速反应，美股首当其冲。4月3日（周四）S&P 500大跌4.84%，创下自2020年 6月11日以来单日最差表现，随后在4月4日（周五）又下跌5.97%，是自2020年3月16日新冠疫情以来表 现最差的交易日。该指数两日跌幅达到10%。 高盛顶级交易员John Flood在周日的客户简报中表示，近期市场可能尚未见底，全球关税升级对GDP增 长、企业盈利和通胀的负面影响刚刚开始显现，市场波动性将持续，指数层面上可能尚未见到近期/中期 低点。不过他表示，高盛数据显示，当市场情绪降至目前极低水平时，未来两周S&P 500有70%概率实现 正回报。 亚太市场也未能幸免。清明节假期过后，恒生指数周一收报19828点，全日跌3021点，跌幅13.2%，创下 自1997年10月28日以来的单日跌幅纪录。而上证指数当日在有"国家队"的支持下，仍收跌7.34%，失守 3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long" rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the current turmoil in the global financial market, the upward trend of the global economy has not changed substantially. The impact of US tariffs on the global economy is less than the nominal figure, China will boost domestic consumption, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, European manufacturing is booming, and AI is set to enhance global productivity [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Goldman Sachs believes that the current stock market sell - off may turn into a longer - lasting cyclical bear market as the risk of economic recession rises. A cyclical bear market usually lasts about two years and takes five years to recover [1] - The continuous slump in the US Treasury market signals a serious systemic risk, potentially leading to a liquidity crisis similar to that in March 2020 [1] - The yield of 30 - year US Treasury bonds has risen by 56 basis points in less than three trading days since last Friday, likely due to forced liquidation [1] - Nomura's Ryan Plantz warns that the US Treasury market is experiencing large - scale unwinding and a liquidity vacuum [1] - High - risk leveraged ETFs have suffered a historic collapse, losing over $25 billion in two trading days. The semiconductor and technology stock ETFs have been hit hard, with a quadruple - leveraged semiconductor ETF in Ireland plunging 59.1% in two days [1] - US stocks have lost over $10 trillion in three days, the US Treasury yield has soared, and the market panic index VIX has reached a post - pandemic high. Blackstone believes that tariff policies will keep interest rates and long - term bond yields high [1] - Bridgewater's Dalio warns of a "once - in - a - lifetime" systemic collapse of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical order. Tariff issues reflect global imbalances in capital and trade [1] - Morgan Stanley reports that hedge funds have sold stocks worth $375 billion [1] Global Economic Logic - The substantial increase in US tariffs has less real impact on the global economy than the nominal figure due to domestic demand in the US and trade diversion. China will boost domestic consumption with extraordinary measures, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, European manufacturing is booming, and AI is set to enhance global productivity. AI humanoid robots may enter mass production in 2025 [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs initially predicted a 65% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months but retracted this forecast shortly after [1] - Goldman Sachs has frequently revised its recession expectations, raising the probability from 20% to 35% just a week prior, and then to 45% [2] - Notable economist Nouriel Roubini believes the U.S. will avoid recession, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year after tariff-related disputes ease [2] Group 2 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns that the economy is still in danger, criticizing the current administration's strategies and highlighting potential losses for middle-class families due to tariffs [2] - Market reactions have been volatile, with significant stock market gains following Trump's comments on tariffs, including a more than 9% rise in the Nasdaq and over 10% increases in stocks like Apple and Nvidia [1] - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to respond to economic impacts from new tariffs, with traders speculating on multiple rate cuts in the near future [2]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors' stance on the US stock market is wavering, with Morgan Stanley indicating that the market may face deeper adjustments if foreign capital begins to question the "American exceptionalism" narrative and withdraws from the US market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "fast money" has exited the market, with hedge fund net exposure dropping to 37%, currently rising to 39%, which is in the 2nd percentile since 2010 [2]. - Macro systemic leverage has decreased to the 14th percentile, following a sell-off of $375 billion in stocks [2]. - Retail investors have not capitulated yet, and long-term investment clients of QDS have not shown panic selling [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Concerns - Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings in US stocks over the past 30 years, currently owning 18% of US equities [2]. - If this group begins to question the "American exceptionalism" and reduces their investments in US stocks, it could lead to more downside risks in the market [2]. Group 3: Tactical Outlook - QDS anticipates that stocks may be more likely to rise than fall in the coming week, but the market is expected to retest lows in the coming months due to the impact of tariff shocks and slow-moving investor sell-offs [5]. - Recent signs of capitulation include hedge fund net exposure falling below 40% and the VIX index exceeding 50, but a complete correlated sell-off has not yet occurred [6]. Group 4: Key Issues Influencing Market Direction - Four major issues are highlighted as critical for market direction: - Fundamentals: The impact of tariffs will take months to fully manifest, with historical data showing that a 20% drop in the S&P 500 typically indicates a recession [7]. - Federal Reserve: The Fed's response to economic slowdown may lag behind the situation, as indicated by Powell's comments suggesting they are not in a hurry [7]. - Foreign Flows: Actual funds, especially from outside the US, could have the most significant downside impact on the market [8]. - Financial Leverage: While much leverage has been removed from the system, not all has been, and the market is shorting Gamma values [8].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from Goldman Sachs indicate that the risk of economic recession is increasing, suggesting that the current sell-off in the U.S. stock market may evolve into a more prolonged cyclical bear market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Cyclical bear markets typically last around two years and require approximately five years to rebound to their starting point [1] - Unlike one-time event-driven shocks, cyclical bear markets reflect changes in the economic cycle itself [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - BlackRock downgraded its three-month outlook for U.S. stocks from overweight to neutral, citing escalating global trade tensions [1] - The firm anticipates that risk assets will face greater pressure in the short term due to these tensions [1]