1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bullish on oil prices; Medium - term: Bearish on oil prices, suggesting a short - position allocation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The situation in Iran has flared up again. The US and some Middle - Eastern countries are considering imposing a maritime oil blockade on Iran, which, if implemented, would seriously affect the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical and macro factors are driving up oil prices, but there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals, and oil prices have been volatile recently [2] 3. Summary of Each Section Market News and Important Data - On January 30, the Trump administration issued a general license to expand the operating capacity of oil companies in Venezuela, marking a significant step in the US's relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela. The US Treasury's license covers various activities related to Venezuelan crude oil [1] - On January 29, Iran warned commercial vessels of a planned live - fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz early next week, which could impact shipping on this crucial oil - transport route that accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation [1] - On January 29, Reliance Industries suspended Russian crude oil imports in January for the first time since 2022 and will resume importing about 150,000 barrels per day from February. It has increased oil purchases from the Middle East, West Africa, Brazil, and the US to make up for the shortfall [1] - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a 3.5% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.98% at 481 yuan per barrel [1] Investment Logic - The Iranian situation has flared up again. The US is considering an oil blockade on Iran, similar to that on Venezuela. This has led to a more than 5% intraday increase in oil prices. Geopolitical and macro factors are driving up oil prices, but there is no substantial improvement in fundamentals [2] Strategy - Short - term: The drivers of oil prices are strong, and the combination of macro sentiment and geopolitics is pushing up oil prices. Medium - term: Bearish on oil prices, suggesting a short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: A peace agreement is reached in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and a macro black - swan event occurs [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control has issued a general license that relaxes sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry, allowing certain transactions related to Venezuelan oil [1]. Group 1: License Details - U.S. entities are authorized to engage in transportation, export, sale, and storage of oil sourced from Venezuela with the Venezuelan government or entities holding 50% or more of the Venezuelan National Oil Company [1]. - Transactions must comply with U.S. law, and payments must be made to the Foreign Government Deposit Funds or other accounts designated by the U.S. Treasury [1]. - The license does not permit debt swaps or payments through gold, Venezuelan government-issued digital currencies, or tokens [1]. Group 2: Reporting Requirements - Entities exporting, selling, or providing Venezuelan oil to countries outside the U.S. must report details such as parties involved, quantities, amounts, destinations, transaction dates, and taxes paid to the Venezuelan government to U.S. authorities [1]. Group 3: Context of Sanctions - The U.S. has implemented multiple rounds of stringent sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry in recent years, with policy adjustments made through licenses issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control [2]. - The U.S. aims to protect Venezuelan oil revenues stored in U.S. Treasury accounts from being seized or entangled in legal proceedings [2].

在成品油方面，记者从会上了解到，2025年，我国成品油市场需求整体维持疲弱态势，据行业监测，全 年成品油消费量3.78亿吨，同比减少2.9%；成品油产量4.14亿吨，同比减少2.4%。 新华财经北京1月30日电（记者安娜）今年入冬以来，我国"冷暖转换"频繁，北方地区冷空气活跃度加 剧，出现多轮阶段性强寒潮天气，能源保供情况如何？国家能源局电力司副司长刘明阳30日在国家能源 局新闻发布会上给出详细解答。 他在会上提供的数据显示，2026年1月4日，全国最大电力负荷达到13.51亿千瓦，今冬首创冬季负荷历 史新高；1月19日、20日、21日，受大范围寒潮天气影响，全国最大电力负荷连续三天创冬季新高，首 次突破14亿千瓦，1月21日最高达14.33亿千瓦。今年入冬以来，华北、西北、东北3个区域电网和新 疆、西藏等14个省级电网负荷累计86次创历史新高。 "国家能源局认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，督促指导各地、有关能源企业全力确保能源电力 供应平稳有序。"刘明阳说，目前，全国燃料储备充足、电力供应平稳，东北等重点保暖地区电厂存煤 超25天。 他在会上提供的数据还显示，1月27日，全国统调电厂电煤库存2.2亿吨， ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - International precious metals futures experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices initially plummeting before recovering, ultimately closing with gains of over 1% for both COMEX gold and silver [1] - At one point, spot silver fell by 8%, and spot gold dropped below $5,200 per ounce [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with technology stocks experiencing divergent trends; Meta surged by 10%, while Microsoft fell by over 10% due to slowing cloud business growth [4][6] - Chinese online education stocks mostly rose, with TAL Education Group increasing by over 18% following better-than-expected earnings [4][8] Group 3: Fund Market Activity - Multiple funds announced a collective suspension of trading starting January 30, following a strong performance in resource-related LOFs, including oil and silver funds [9][10] - The price of WTI crude oil reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase and the highest level since September 2025, driven by heightened geopolitical risks and inflation expectations [14] Group 4: Fund Subscription Limits - Starting January 30, several funds, including those managed by Huashan and GF Fund, significantly reduced their daily subscription limits to as low as 2 yuan, effectively restricting large investments [15][20] - The high premium rates in the secondary market prompted warnings from fund managers about potential risks associated with blind investments [17][18]

据追风交易台，在"原油将迎来史诗级过剩"的共识声浪中，巴克莱给出了一个明显逆市场的判断：眼下市场所担忧的供给过剩， 规模被高估、持续时间被夸大，而真正重要的变化，发生在2026年之后。 在巴克莱看来，当前并不是原油熊市的起点，而更像是多年上行周期前的"最后一次情绪错配"。 市场为何会误判？"过剩叙事"本身就站不住脚 过去一年，市场反复引用 IEA、EIA 的供需预测，认为 2026 年全球原油市场将出现 00–400 万桶/日的供给过剩。但巴克莱强调， 如果过剩真实存在，应当首先反映在库存之中。 然而，现实数据并不支持这一判断，巴克莱认为，现实数据并不支持这一判断。 第一，所谓"4百万桶/日过剩"，在现实中根本没有出现。 无论是陆上商业库存，还是海上浮仓、在途原油，都明显低于这些模型所暗示的水平。价格本身也给出了答案——布 伦特油价并未跌入市场反复预期的40–50美元区间，而是表现出明显韧性。 巴克莱指出，市场并非在"算错供给"，而是在系统性低估需求的绝对水平。不同机构对2026年原油需求的"起点"本 身，差异就高达200万桶/日以上。所谓"缺失的桶"，并没有消失，而是被统计口径和数据滞后掩盖了。 第三，炼厂 ...

古巴官方曾谴责此类不实信息是美国对古巴发动媒体战与网络战、企图破坏古巴稳定的手段之一。（总台记者 史 跃） 29日，有社交媒体发布信息，称"古巴国家石油公司与旅游部联合通知，因燃油严重短缺，将暂停向公众供应燃 料，并优先保障旅游业、医疗卫生等关键部门"。 总台记者当地时间1月29日获悉，针对社交媒体上出现的"古巴燃油供应中断"传言，古巴国家石油公司当天发表声 明予以驳斥，明确表示国内加油站燃料供应正常，并未暂停销售，同时建议民众通过其官方网站获取最新资讯。 该声明也得到古巴能源和矿产部的转发支持。 ...

美国特朗普政府颁发一项通用许可证，扩大石油公司在委内瑞拉开展经营的能力，这标志着向着放松制 裁迈出了重要一步。 由美国财政部周四发布的许可证涵盖一系列活动，有望加快委内瑞拉原油的流通，这包括出口、销售、 储存和提炼这些石油，前提是这些工作必须由美国实体执行。据一位政府官员，这不包括委内瑞拉境内 的上游原油生产，目前只有一家美国石油公司——雪佛龙公司——在获得美国特殊许可证的情况下从事 该领域业务。 此前，委内瑞拉议会批准了该国油气政策的历史性改革，一些美国石油公司高管称，这项改革对于在委 内瑞拉开展业务至关重要。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普曾表示，他希望美国能源公司投入数十亿美元重振 委内瑞拉石油行业。由于多年投资不足和腐败，委内瑞拉的基础设施已经破败不堪。 "这似乎是为能源公司在委内瑞拉开展业务铺平道路的第一步，也是至关重要的一步。"华盛顿战略和国 际研究中心（CSIS）高级研究员Clayton Seigle说，这基本上取消了与委内瑞拉石油公司（PDVSA）合 作处理该国原油的禁令。 美国特朗普政府颁发一项通用许可证，扩大石油公司在委内瑞拉开展经营的能力，这标志着向着放松制 裁迈出了重要一步。 由美国财政部周四发 ...

如上图所示，原油势将创下多个月以来的最强劲涨势——原油在从伊朗到委内瑞拉的地缘政治风险推动 下大举反弹，但是在市场避险情绪影响之下周五有所回调。 美国总统特朗普呼吁伊朗参与核谈判，而德黑兰方面则警告将采取报复措施，这无疑引发了人们对美伊 紧张局势再度升级的担忧。市场关注的焦点在于这些紧张局势可能对霍尔木兹海峡航运造成的影响。霍 尔木兹海峡是伊朗和阿拉伯半岛之间的一条狭窄通道，对全球能源流动至关重要，每天都有大量运输原 油和液化天然气的油轮通过。 智通财经APP获悉，由于大宗商品交易员们权衡美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗与古巴本土不断升级的 军事或政治干预威胁，以及任何潜在的双方敌对行动将如何影响中东与拉美地区的原油以及石油成品供 应流，尤其是交易员们愈发担忧全球原油与天然气海上运输要道——中东霍尔木兹海峡可能因美伊擦枪 走火而陷入紧急封锁，国际原油价格基准——布伦特原油期货价格势将创下自2023年7月份以来最大规 模的月度涨幅。 最新数据显示，布伦特原油在周四自7月以来首次升破每桶70美元关口后，在亚盘初期仍然维持在70美 元上方区域，不过之后不久便跟随铜、黄金以及白银等金属价格而下跌，但跌幅不到1%，在跌破7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current major driving factor for crude oil is geopolitical factors. With the U.S. increasing its military presence in the Middle East and potential actions against Iran, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by factors such as demand recovery, supply changes, and geopolitical situations. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For asphalt, with a slight decline in refinery production in February and weak demand in the off - season, attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and downstream negative feedback [5]. - Rubber prices are affected by production and consumption data, as well as cost - side factors. They are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - Methanol supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a 3.50% increase; Brent March contract rose $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% increase; SC2603 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, up 13.9 yuan per barrel, a 2.98% increase. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday. The current major driving factor for oil prices is geopolitical factors, and short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. As of the week of January 26, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's inventory increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is supported by demand, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future. High - sulfur fuel oil has mixed factors. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed down on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A polyester factory in Shandong has shut down for maintenance, and a MEG device in Fujian has restarted. The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. According to the ANRPC December report, global natural rubber production decreased and consumption increased in December. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. Rubber prices are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends in different regions. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. MTO device load has decreased, and port inventory reduction is under pressure. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply is at a high level as some upstream maintenance devices have resumed production. Demand will weaken as downstream factories approach the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is slowing down. PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the daily basis data of various energy - chemical products on January 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. Market News - Due to U.S. President Trump's consideration of military strikes against Iran, an OPEC member, crude oil prices rose by more than 3%. Trump is weighing targeted strikes against Iranian security forces and leaders to support anti - government protesters and create conditions for regime change [11]. - Trump has deployed the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East and warned Iran that the time to reach an agreement on its nuclear program is running out. The market is worried that U.S. military intervention will lead to an interruption in regional crude oil supply, and potential supply risks continue to support oil prices [11]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between fuel oil 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts, the spread between asphalt main and sub - main contracts, etc. [45][47][50] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - commodity contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, etc. [61][64][66] - **Production Profit**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as the production profit of LLDPE, the processing fee of PTA, etc. [68][70]

智通财经APP获悉，由于大宗商品交易员们权衡美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗与古巴本土不断升级的军事或政治干预威胁，以 及任何潜在的双方敌对行动将如何影响中东与拉美地区的原油以及石油成品供应流，尤其是交易员们愈发担忧全球原油与天然 气海上运输要道——中东霍尔木兹海峡可能因美伊擦枪走火而陷入紧急封锁，国际原油价格基准——布伦特原油期货价格势将 创下自2023年7月份以来最大规模的月度涨幅。 最新数据显示，布伦特原油在周四自7月以来首次升破每桶70美元关口后，在亚盘初期仍然维持在70美元上方区域，不过之后不 久便跟随铜、黄金以及白银等金属价格而下跌，但跌幅不到1%，在跌破70美元与略上方徘徊。与此同时，已经下跌多日的美元 指数则显著反弹，对大宗商品价格造成重大压制力。 而北美原油定价基准——西德克萨斯中质原油(即WTI原油)期货价格则接近65美元。美国总统特朗普的最新表态已从因德黑兰 对抗议者的致命镇压而计划军事惩罚伊朗，转向本周寻求达成一项新的核协议，然而双方谈妥的概率仍然非常低。 尽管市场仍然预期2026至2027年全球原油供应增加的同时需求可能将持续萎靡，将对不断国际油价形成下行压力，但是特朗普 政府对伊朗的持 ...