铜板块：2025年前三季度铜板块收入增速较去年同期回正，归母净利润增速改善明显。收入端来看， 2025年前三季度铜板块实现营收14249.67亿元，同比增长5.01%，增速虽较2024年全年下降但较2024年 同期小幅回升;利润端来看，2025年前三季度铜板块实现归母净利润690.05亿元，同比增长46.17%，增 速较2024全年及2024年同期分别提升11.38pct和18.36pct。2025年前三季度铜板块盈利能力回升，毛利率 及净利率分别较去年同期提升2.74pct和1.82pct至10.42%和5.84%;资本支出同比大幅收缩14.92%。 贵金属板块：2025年前三季度贵金属板块营收及利润同比高增长，增速边际大幅提升。收入端来看， 2025年前三季度贵金属板块实现营收2,995.43亿元，同比增长35.02%，较2024年全年和2024年同期分别 提升11.47pct和9.53pct;利润端来看，2025年前三季度贵金属板块实现归母净利润147.26亿元，同比增长 62.64%，增速较2024全年及2024年同期分别大幅提升14.4pct和16.45pct，板块收入及净利润大幅增长主 要得益于金 ...

Group 1: Rare Earths - The supply and demand for rare earths are both weak, with neodymium oxide prices rebounding by 3.94% to 566,500 CNY/ton [1] - Dysprosium oxide prices decreased by 1.99% to 1,480,000 CNY/ton, while terbium oxide prices fell by 0.84% to 6,525,000 CNY/ton [1] - Some production companies are controlling output due to cost pressures, and the recent raw material supply tightness has eased [1] - Downstream magnetic material companies have not seen a significant increase in order volumes, maintaining low demand levels, with price fluctuations expected [1] - Recommended companies to watch include Guangsheng Nonferrous, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Jieli Permanent Magnet, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [1] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with molybdenum concentrate prices down by 2.69% to 3,615 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices down by 1.26% to 235,500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply signals for molybdenum concentrate are showing signs of contraction, while weak terminal demand is dragging down industry profitability [2] - The industry is facing a supply-demand tug-of-war, with short-term price adjustments expected [2] - Recommended company to watch is Jintong Molybdenum [2] Group 3: Tungsten - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases for long-term contracts, with black tungsten concentrate prices up by 6.96% to 338,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices up by 4.10% to 495,000 CNY/ton [2] - The reduction in tungsten concentrate mining quotas and slowed production rates are tightening industry circulation [2] - Domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential purchases, with PCB tool demand showing positive trends [2] - Companies to watch include Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten [2] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are strengthening due to ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin prices up by 4.66% to 305,000 CNY/ton and LME tin prices up by 5.97% to 39,100 USD/ton [3] - Supply-side issues include deteriorating safety conditions in major tin mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo and ongoing crackdowns on illegal mining in Indonesia [3] - Traditional consumer electronics demand is weak, while emerging fields like AI are performing well, leading to strong price expectations [3] - Recommended companies to watch are Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [3] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony prices are showing signs of bottom reversal, with antimony ingot prices up by 9.52% to 172,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices up by 10.75% to 154,500 CNY/ton [3] - Antimony ingot production has rebounded, but overall operating rates remain low due to raw material shortages [3] - Expectations for export recovery are boosting terminal purchasing confidence, with tight inventories for antimony ore and ingots [3] - Companies to watch include Huaxi Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining [3]

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 供给收缩推动钨价创历史新高，出口修复预期锑价或底部反转 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属双周报（2025/11/17-2025/11/28） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、下游需求不及预期风险、进出口政策变动风险等。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 稀土：供需双弱，氧化镨钕震荡反弹。近两周，氧化镨钕上涨 3.94%至 56.65 万元/ 吨，氧化镝下跌 1.99% ...

Market Overview - The small metals sector increased by 2.42% on November 28, with Western Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Western Materials (002149) closed at 17.63, up 6.53% with a trading volume of 329,000 shares and a transaction value of 569 million [1] - Eastern Silver (000962) closed at 27.77, up 6.32% with a trading volume of 266,900 shares and a transaction value of 731 million [1] - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) closed at 34.40, up 5.68% with a trading volume of 519,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.754 billion [1] - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) closed at 66.85, up 4.90% with a trading volume of 301,700 shares and a transaction value of 198.9 million [1] - Other notable performers include Zhongtung High-tech (000657) up 3.74%, and Xianglu Tungsten (002842) up 3.49% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The small metals sector saw a net inflow of 777 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 297 million [1] - Main funds showed significant net inflows in Xiamen Tungsten (1.36 billion), Western Materials (1.25 billion), and Shenghe Resources (1.17 billion) [2] - Retail funds had notable outflows in Xiamen Tungsten (-74.7 million), Western Materials (-76.6 million), and Zhongkuang Resources (-122 million) [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [63]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has experienced a decline of 6.87% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.90 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's fluctuating interest rate expectations have led to continued volatility in metal prices, particularly in industrial metals, which are expected to maintain upward momentum due to improving supply-demand dynamics [6][56]. - Precious metals have shown resilience, with gold prices rising significantly, supported by a declining dollar credit, while lithium prices are recovering due to tightening supply conditions and new growth opportunities in energy storage [57][58]. Market Review - As of November 27, 2025, the LME copper price was $10,930/ton, aluminum at $2,831.50/ton, lead at $1,983.50/ton, zinc at $3,022/ton, nickel at $14,840/ton, and tin at $37,925/ton [24]. - The COMEX gold price reached $4,189.60/oz, up $175.9 since early November, while silver was at $53.83/oz, up $5.92 [33][57]. - Lithium carbonate futures were priced at ¥95,800/ton, reflecting a recovery of ¥13,500 since early November, and cobalt prices increased to ¥401,300/ton [37][58]. Industry Analysis by Subsector Industrial Metals - The report notes that the supply-demand balance for copper and aluminum continues to improve, with prices expected to have upward momentum due to macroeconomic easing [6][56]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with prices expected to continue rising due to a weakening dollar [57][58]. Energy Metals - The report emphasizes the upward trend in lithium prices driven by tightening supply and new growth opportunities in energy storage and solid-state batteries [58]. Minor Metals - The rare earth price index was reported at 207.92, with some prices like praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing, while others like dysprosium and terbium saw declines [41][58]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector, and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) in the energy metals sector due to their strong performance and growth potential [6][59].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant gains, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) reaching a peak increase of 2.7% and currently up by 1.88%, indicating strong market confidence in the sector's future performance [1][3]. Fund Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 213 million yuan in the last 10 days, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1]. - As of November 24, the latest scale of the ETF is 676 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Stock Performance - Notable stocks within the ETF include Huaxi Nonferrous, which hit the daily limit with a 10.01% increase, and several others like Western Gold and Tin Industry Co., which rose over 4% [3]. - The top ten stocks in the ETF's index have shown strong performance, with significant increases in their market values and trading volumes [3]. Market Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, with firms like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing confidence in the ongoing investment enthusiasm for commodities [3]. - Key focus areas include industrial metals like copper and aluminum, energy metals such as lithium and cobalt, and strategic assets like gold and rare earths [3]. Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF is recommended to capture the overall sector's beta performance, as it covers a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium [4].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant gains, with the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) seeing a peak increase of 2.7% and currently up by 1.88%, indicating strong market confidence in the sector's future performance [1][4]. Fund Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 213 million yuan in the past 10 days, reflecting positive investor sentiment towards the sector [1]. - As of November 24, the ETF's latest scale reached 676 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Stock Performance - Key stocks within the ETF have shown strong performance, with Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Western Gold, Xiyang Co., and Zhongjin Gold rising over 4% [3][4]. Market Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector. Zhongtai Securities is particularly bullish on a comprehensive bull market, while CITIC Securities anticipates sustained investment interest in commodities [4][5]. - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which are expected to benefit from supply constraints and recovering demand. 2. Energy metals such as lithium and cobalt, which are poised to gain from the explosive demand in energy storage and power batteries. 3. Strategic assets like gold and rare earths [4][5]. Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector's beta performance while mitigating risks associated with investing in single metal industries [5].

Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the positive outlook for copper and aluminum, while emphasizing the potential for rare metals and lithium to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and technological advancements [1][3]. Copper Industry - The copper supply-demand landscape is influenced by ongoing global supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with expectations for price increases supported by a global interest rate cut cycle [3][21]. - Domestic copper production is projected to slow down due to tightening copper concentrate supplies and low smelting fees, while demand from the renewable energy sector and AI electronics is expected to continue rising [3][50]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's refined copper production reached 889.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14%, driven by significant contributions from recycled copper and improved smelting technology [3][28]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by rigid supply constraints and differentiated demand, with prices expected to rise due to strong demand from the renewable energy sector and gradual recovery in the real estate market [3][55]. - Domestic aluminum production is supported by stable bauxite supply and increasing imports, with a notable rise in imported bauxite by 33.6% year-on-year [3][59]. - The report indicates that the aluminum price is likely to maintain an upward trajectory due to the ongoing economic recovery and the anticipated demand from various sectors [3][55]. Strategic Metals - The rare earth supply is expected to stabilize, but demand needs to be boosted, particularly from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][4]. - Tungsten supply is projected to remain tight due to resource depletion and environmental regulations, while demand is stable, driven by applications in hard alloys and emerging technologies [3][4]. - Lithium production is set to benefit from the rapid expansion of energy storage and solid-state battery technologies, with a significant increase in demand anticipated [3][4]. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain its upward momentum due to declining dollar credit and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term volatility [3][5]. - The report highlights that gold's monetary attributes are likely to be reinforced amid geopolitical tensions and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Western Mining (601168) for industrial metals, while recommending Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) for small metals and new materials [6]. - For energy metals, Ganfeng Lithium (002460) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) are highlighted as key players to watch [6]. - In the precious metals sector, Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) are recommended due to their potential for price appreciation [6].

Market Overview - The small metals sector increased by 1.03% on November 24, with Huaxi Nonferrous leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Key Performers - Huaxi Nonferrous (600301) closed at 36.97, up 5.78% with a trading volume of 183,800 shares and a transaction value of 684 million [1] - Other notable performers include: - Dongfang Silver (000962) at 25.81, up 4.03% [1] - Zhongtung High-tech (000657) at 21.66, up 3.19% [1] - Guangsheng Nonferrous (600259) at 55.98, up 3.09% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The small metals sector experienced a net outflow of 167 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 150 million [2] - Notable fund flows include: - Huaxi Nonferrous with a main fund net inflow of 72.9 million [3] - Anning Co. (002978) with a main fund net inflow of 22.5 million [3] - Dongfang Silver with a main fund net inflow of 13.2 million [3] Trading Volume and Value - The trading volume for Huaxi Nonferrous was 183,800 shares, contributing to a transaction value of 684 million [1] - Zhongtung High-tech had a trading volume of 651,400 shares, with a transaction value of 1.407 billion [1] Sector Performance - The overall performance of the small metals sector reflects a mixed sentiment, with some stocks showing significant gains while others faced declines [2][3] - The sector's dynamics indicate a potential shift in investor interest, particularly towards stocks like Huaxi Nonferrous and Guangsheng Nonferrous [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 112.37%, but recent declines in the short term indicate potential market fluctuations [1][2]. Company Overview - Northern Rare Earth (China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech Co., Ltd.) is based in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, and was established on September 12, 1997, with its listing on September 24, 1997. The company specializes in rare earth raw materials, functional materials, and some terminal application products [1]. - The revenue composition of the company includes: production business segment 132.93%, functional materials and application products segment 31.31%, trading business segment 27.24%, and environmental industry and others 4.01% [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Northern Rare Earth achieved operating revenue of 30.292 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.541 billion yuan, showing a substantial increase of 280.27% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 5.358 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 994 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of November 20, 2025, the number of shareholders for Northern Rare Earth was 736,400, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 2.18% to 4,908 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with notable changes in holdings, such as Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reducing its stake by 58.33 million shares [3].