证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 低估值的消费细分龙头具有较高胜率 2025 年 03 月 17 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024/3/18 2024/7/16 2024/11/13 2025/3/13 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《政策刺激力度符合预期》 2025-03-10 《建筑业 PMI 低位大幅反弹》 2025-03-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.3.10–2025.3.14，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 1.18%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 行业旺季渐行渐近，关注提价背后投资机会 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）下游需求逐步恢复，叠加行业自律错峰生 产执行落地，推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥，塔牌集团等受益。（2） 风险逐步出清，推荐经营韧性超强的兔宝宝等；二手房交易数据 持续亮眼，叠加扩内需，促消费，推荐具备α属性的消费建材标的 三棵树、伟星新材等。（3）政府工作报告再提低空，推荐华设集 团、设计总院；深城交、苏交科、隧道股份等受益。（4）国家重 大工程雅鲁项目主体工程有望进入开工期，推荐重点工程中岩大 地。（5）推荐松井股份，汽车涂料国产替代需求旺盛，公司有望 放量；以机器人为代表的新型涂料潜在需求大。 ►第 11 周（03/09-03/15）新房交易逐步回温，二手房热度不 减。（1）30 城大中城市商品房交易数据：今年第 11 周，国内 30 大中城市商品房成交面积（新房）165.26 万㎡，同比+2%，环比 +14%；累计交易面积 1733.17 万㎡，同比+11%；从交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [1][52]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing an upward trend due to the approaching construction peak season and accelerated infrastructure funding, with a historical high in policy funding expected in 2025 [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing high demand for coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, with over 700 billion yuan in investments planned for 2025, indicating a robust outlook for leading companies in this sector [1]. - The report suggests a gradual recovery in demand for construction materials as the peak season approaches, with a focus on fiscal policy and real estate policy effects [3]. Summary by Sections Construction Materials - Cement prices increased by 0.7% week-on-week, with a 7% rise in shipment rates in key regions, indicating a slow recovery in demand [2][21]. - Glass prices decreased by 2.07% week-on-week, reflecting weak demand and slow processing plant operations [2][28]. - The fiberglass market shows a slight price increase, with the average price for non-alkali yarn rising by 0.63% week-on-week [2][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders such as Sanke Tree, Beixin Building Materials, and others, while also highlighting opportunities in cement and glass sectors [3][6]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policy and real estate market developments for potential investment opportunities [3][6]. Market Trends - The construction materials index outperformed the market index by 4.6% during the last reporting period, with a 30.2% increase over the past six months [11]. - The report notes that the construction sector is currently facing insufficient effective demand, with low leverage willingness among residents and enterprises [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the building materials industry, emphasizing price increases and improved shipping conditions as key drivers for growth in 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - Price increases are the main theme for the building materials industry in spring 2025, signaling a return to rational competition after a period of aggressive price wars [3][32]. - The cement sector is experiencing price hikes driven by low inventory levels, with a consensus among companies to avoid destructive competition, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability [3][11]. - The consumer building materials segment is witnessing price increases across various categories, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [3][32]. - The fiberglass industry is seeing multiple rounds of price increases, suggesting a recovery in profitability, while the glass sector faces challenges related to construction completions [3][32]. Summary by Sections Cement - Low inventory levels are driving price increases, with significant hikes reported in various regions starting from March 2025 [7][8]. - The industry has reached a consensus to prevent destructive competition, which is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in profitability [11][12]. - Major companies such as Conch Cement are highlighted for their cost and scale advantages, with profitability expected to improve [18][19]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials is improving due to active second-hand housing transactions, which are expected to boost shipments [36][49]. - Price increases in categories like gypsum board and coatings are signaling a shift towards profitability recovery [36][39]. - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [37][40]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing a recovery in prices, with electronic yarn and cloth prices showing upward trends [52][53]. - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from new application scenarios and sustained demand growth [53][54]. Glass - The flat glass sector is under pressure due to declining construction completions, necessitating close monitoring of supply-side adjustments [32][49]. - Companies like Qibin Group and South Glass A are recommended for their market positions amid these challenges [32][49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The real estate beta factor is more positive, suggesting a proactive layout in retail building materials [6] - Attention is drawn to the cement industry's bottom improvement, with price increases stabilizing profits during the off-season, indicating emerging bottom signals [8] - There is a recommendation to focus on high-dividend stocks for their allocation value [9] - The strategy for 2025 indicates a profit bottom, with a supply-demand inflection point approaching [12] Market Performance - The report includes market performance data for the period from February 24 to February 28, 2025 [15] Price Changes - Cement prices during the specified period showed fluctuations, with specific price points noted for different types of cement [20] - The report also covers price changes for float glass and fiberglass during the same period [24][29] Company Tracking and Industry News - Key companies such as Zhonggang Rongnai and Dongfang Yuhong reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for 2024 [47] - The report highlights industry news, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's announcement of urban village renovation projects and the National Energy Administration's goals for renewable energy generation in 2025 [49]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the construction materials industry, particularly in segments benefiting from price increases and structural demand recovery [1][2][3]. Core Insights - Price increases for key materials such as fiberglass and coatings have been noted, driven by downstream demand and strategic changes from leading companies [1][2]. - The recovery in real estate sales is showing positive signals, with a notable increase in sales for the top 100 real estate companies in February 2025 [2][9]. - The overall construction site resumption rate is lagging, with a current rate of 64.6%, down 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Frequent price increase notices have been observed in cyclical products, particularly in fiberglass and coatings, indicating a structural demand characteristic for the first half of the year [1][8]. - Companies like China National Materials and China Jushi have announced price adjustments effective March 1, 2025, for various products [1][8]. Cyclical Linkage - The national average price for cement is reported at 394 RMB/ton, up 36 RMB year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 30.9% [3][10]. - The average price for float glass is 1386.80 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease, while fiberglass prices have seen a marginal increase [3][10]. National Subsidy Tracking - New subsidy guidelines in Jiangxi Province for energy-efficient appliances provide a 15% subsidy for level 2 products and 20% for level 1 products, which may benefit companies in the construction materials sector [11][12]. Important Changes - Companies such as Weixing New Materials and Rabbit Baby have released performance forecasts, indicating a positive trend in the industry [4][13]. - The total production of fiberglass yarn in China is projected to reach 7.56 million tons in 2024, reflecting a 4.6% year-on-year increase [4][13].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The fiberglass electronic fabric industry is characterized by high upstream concentration, with leading company China Jushi holding a market share of 20%-30% in the 7,628 electronic fabric segment. The domestic supply of high-end Low Dielectric Constant (LDK) products is less than 50%, primarily relying on overseas suppliers [1][3] - The demand for PCB materials is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%-6% over the next few years, with specific segments like AI servers expected to see double-digit growth [6] Market Dynamics - The price pressure for 7,628 electronic fabric and LDK products is manageable, as companies like Futong can pass on upstream cost pressures through price increases. Over 50% of industry demand is derived from 7,628 electronic fabric [5] - The global sales of high-speed digital interconnect boards are expected to increase from $2.4 billion in 2023 to $5.1 billion by 2030, also reflecting a double-digit CAGR [6] Key Applications and Demand Drivers - NVIDIA GPUs and switches are identified as key downstream applications for LDK products, with significant market potential. For instance, the NVL36 GPU corresponds to a unit value of approximately 2,800 yuan, while NVL72 corresponds to about 2,900 yuan for PCB units. The overall market size related to NVIDIA GPUs and 800G switches is estimated to be close to $3 billion [7] Supply Chain and Production Insights - The production of LDK products faces technical challenges, including raw material ratios and quality control during the melting and homogenization processes. Domestic manufacturers primarily use two methods: pool kiln and crucible methods, with the latter being more costly but offering better stability and quality [8] - Major domestic manufacturers are planning expansions, with Taishan Fiberglass aiming to launch an annual production capacity of 26 million meters by the end of the year, potentially capturing a market share of 20%-30% [9] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The supply situation for 7,628 electronic fabric is influenced by the pace of cold repair restarts, with a slight narrowing of the expected oversupply this year. Price trends are expected to show a marginal upward movement, primarily driven by downstream replenishment [10] - The wind power and automotive thermoplastic short-cut products are experiencing strong market performance, with expectations of double-digit price increases due to robust demand [11][12] Company Recommendations - The fiberglass industry is performing better than market expectations, even during the off-season. Companies like China National Materials and China Jushi are recommended for investment due to their diversified business models and strong market positions [13] - China National Materials is projected to double its low DK material shipments by the end of 2025, contributing approximately 100 million yuan in profits. The company aims for a market share exceeding 30% in the wind blade segment [14] - China Jushi is expected to see profitability recovery in its 7,628 electronic fabric segment, with a potential upside of 15%-20% in its stock price [15]

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - July data remains flat, with real estate sales declining slightly month-on-month, and physical volume data in real estate staying stable [2][4] - The performance of leading companies in the consumer building materials sector is expected to maintain resilience despite high base effects in Q2 [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - Cement: Regional hotspots show some performance, but demand continues to drag down the sector [3][10] - Architectural glass: Float glass profitability has seen a temporary recovery, but the medium to long-term outlook remains in a bottom-seeking phase [3][15] - Glass fiber: Inventory accumulation has increased, with major manufacturers maintaining stable prices [3][24] - Carbon fiber: Limited demand recovery, with a clear differentiation between low-end and high-end capacities [3][28] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The cement market has seen a slight price increase of 0.13% nationwide, with price adjustments varying by region [33] - In the glass industry, the average price of float glass is 1454 RMB/ton, with inventory levels decreasing slightly [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - Leading companies in the consumer building materials sector are focusing on long-term positioning despite short-term risks, with a strong emphasis on market share and valuation alignment [2][5] - Companies like Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials are expected to maintain robust profit growth and competitive advantages in their respective segments [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasizes the critical impact of real estate sales on the building materials supply chain, indicating that inventory clearance in real estate will significantly enhance the operational environment for the entire sector [4][5] - The outlook for 2024 suggests a profit growth of 15% for Oriental Yuhong, with a recovery in valuation expected as the balance sheet improves [6] Other Important Information - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a significant divergence in performance between leading and second-tier companies, with the former showing more resilience [5][6] - The glass industry is facing challenges with profitability, as many companies are currently operating at a loss due to high inventory levels and price pressures [15][20] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the outlook for the cement market? - The cement market is expected to see price increases driven by industry self-discipline and seasonal demand fluctuations, although challenges remain due to high inventory levels and weak demand [33][34] Question: How are leading companies in the building materials sector performing? - Leading companies are expected to outperform their peers, with strong management strategies and market positioning allowing them to navigate current challenges effectively [5][6]