（原标题：利润腰斩 销量骤降 雅迪正在被市场"洗牌"） 中国电动两轮车行业龙头企业雅迪控股（01585.HK）近日发布的2024年财报显示，其遭遇上市以来最严重的业绩滑坡：全年营收282.36亿元，同 比下滑18.8%；归母净利润12.72亿元，同比暴跌51.8%，创近五年新低。 这一数据折射出行业增长红利消退背景下，雅迪长期依赖的"低价+渠道"模式正面临严峻挑战。 利润腰斩与销量下滑 2024年，雅迪电动两轮车总销量从2023年的1650万台骤降至1302万台，同比减少21.18%，远超行业11.6%的降幅。销量锐减导致营收减少约65亿 元，叠加降价清库存策略，毛利率从16.9%降至15.2%，创七年新低。 其中，南京电动自行车锂电池自燃事件引发的安全信任危机，以及新国标《电动自行车安全技术规范》的强制实施，迫使雅迪对旧款车型降价 30%清仓，进一步压缩利润空间。 更深层的问题在于其战略惯性。雅迪长期以"多门店+低价"模式扩张，截至2023年拥有超4万家销售点，但行业转向存量竞争后，密集渠道反而成 为负担——2024年存货金额攀升至16.53亿元，同比增长33.9%，经销商库存周转率下降导致信心不足。 高端 ...

2025起点 轻型动力电池 技术 高峰 论坛 2025第五届起点两轮车换电大会 聚焦轻型电池技术 拓展新兴应用市场 时间： 7月10-11日 地点：江苏无锡 一、活动背景及亮点 二、活动组织架构 举办时间： 2025年7月10-11日 举办地点： 江苏无锡 三、大会议程 | | 2025起点轻型动力电池技术高峰论坛 | | --- | --- | | | 2025第五届起点两轮车换电大会 | | | 7月10-11日 无锡 | | 日期时间 | 议程简介 | | 7月10日 | 2025起点轻型动力电池技术高峰论坛 | | 上午 09:30-12:00 | 高倍率及快充电池技术专场 | | 聚焦议题 | ü 起点研究院 -《2025中国轻型动力/两轮车换电TOP20排行榜及行 | | | 业白皮书发布》 | | | ü 高倍率电池技术发展趋势 | | | ü 高功率电池在 AGV/人形机器人中的解决方案 | | | ü 无人机 /EVTOL用电池技术发展路径分析 | | | ü 下一代超快充电池技术 | | | ü 高倍率电池极片制造及电池封装工艺革新 | | | 圆桌讨论：下一代高倍率电池技术发展路径 | ...

方正证券发布研报称，从行业投资机会层面看，2025年是两轮车行业的补库之年。24年末由于应对3C 认证各品牌渠道库存水位降到低位，25Q1春节后旺季补库。此外，在25年7月各品牌符合新国标政策两 轮车产品发布后，由于25年8月底后企业不能再制造老国标产品，25Q3或将又迎来一轮补库，渠道或囤 积老国标产品销售至25年11月底。 行业向头部集中，产品定义和技术创新推动产品升级，新势力品牌渠道扩张。2016-2021年行业集中度 不断提升，一方面，2019年新国标要求严格，因此利好头部企业份额提升;另一方面，雅迪份额提升尤 其明显，主要系雅迪正确判断消费升级的市场需求，推出中高端产品并同步铺设销售网络。从均价来 说，第一梯队为极核、小牛和九号，第二梯队为爱玛、雅迪，第三梯队为绿源、新日等品牌。极核、小 牛和九号在高端电动两轮车价格带弯道超车，主要系抓住了高端电动两轮车智能化的趋势。为进一步扩 张市场份额，九号和小牛基于锂电+智能化的产品基础，针对下沉市场推出了铅酸+智能化的产品，降 低了产品单价。雅迪研发费用绝对值显著增加，主要价格带的冠能和摩登系列更多是轻智能化的产品。 门店方面，雅迪门店数量最多，爱玛仍有开店 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 20.50, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of HKD 15.60 [1][6][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's engine profits have shown strong growth, with a record high dividend payout ratio of 55%. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0.8% in 2024, reaching RMB 215.7 billion, driven by improved gross margins and a net profit increase of 26.5% to RMB 11.4 billion [2][6]. - The report highlights several catalysts for growth, including new subsidies to boost heavy truck demand, strong growth in data center engines, and robust demand for natural gas heavy trucks [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Weichai Power are as follows: - 2023: RMB 213.96 billion - 2024: RMB 215.69 billion (0.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 237.92 billion (10.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 254.83 billion (7.1% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 269.35 billion (5.7% YoY growth) [3][10]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 9.01 billion - 2024: RMB 11.40 billion (26.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 14.64 billion (28.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 16.19 billion (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 17.77 billion (9.8% YoY growth) [3][10]. - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to reach 22.4% in 2024, up from 21.1% in 2023 [11]. Market Position and Performance - Weichai Power's market share in the domestic heavy truck engine market is 38.7%, with a strong performance in high-end markets such as data centers, where sales of M-series engines grew by 148% [6][10]. - The company has maintained a stable market share despite a 5% decline in overall commercial vehicle demand in the domestic market [6][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is projected at 11.5x, with a corresponding dividend yield of 6.6% [6][10]. - The book value per share is expected to be RMB 8.73 in 2025E, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.4x [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the trade-in and subsidy policies in 2025 has significantly boosted consumer spending and improved living standards, particularly in the electric two-wheeler industry, with companies like Yadea leading the response to these initiatives [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The new subsidy policies have expanded to include digital products and vehicles, enhancing consumer engagement and driving retail growth in various sectors, with significant increases in sales figures for communication equipment and furniture [2]. - The electric two-wheeler industry has seen a positive response to the trade-in policy, with over 204.4 million electric bicycles exchanged, generating sales of 5.61 billion yuan and benefiting over 200,000 consumers [2][4]. Group 2: Company Response - Yadea has actively participated in the national subsidy program, offering additional discounts to consumers, which has led to a surge in sales, particularly for their stylish and high-quality models [6][9]. - The company has introduced a "national subsidy quick check" feature to help users navigate local policies and store information, enhancing customer experience [9]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Yadea is recognized as a leader in R&D within the industry, focusing on innovative battery technologies and smart manufacturing to drive the transition towards a more sustainable electric vehicle market [11][13]. - The integration of technology, service, and subsidies has created a tangible sense of benefit for consumers, demonstrating how policy can effectively translate into productive outcomes [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The electric vehicle industry is expected to play a crucial role in achieving China's dual carbon goals while contributing to economic growth, with Yadea positioned to leverage policy advantages for global competitiveness [13].

财报解读：2024年净利润砍半，雅迪的救命稻草在哪？ 在堪称中国电动两轮车行业分水岭的2024年里，随着新国标的全面实施，大量"超标车"进入集中淘汰期，换购潮预期下，行业上演了出人意料的"量价齐 跌"。 中国电动两轮车行业报告显示，2024年电动两轮车国内总销量4950万台，同比下滑11.6%，受原材料价格影响，终端零售均价也持续承压。 图源来自雅迪官方 在这场行业剧变中，龙头企业雅迪控股交出了一份意料之中的成绩单——营收同比下滑18.8%，归母净利润呈现腰斩。这组数据背后，折射出的不仅是企业 个体的困境，更是整个行业价值重构的缩影。 业绩下滑的三大"症结"——销量、成本与政策 财报数据显示，截至2024年12月31日，雅迪控股全年收入约为282.36亿元，较2023年减少约18.8%。 | | | 蔵全12月 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2024年 | | | 附註 人民幣千元 | | | 收入 | 4 28,236,246 | | | 銷售成本 | 6 (23,947,265 | | | 毛利 | 4,288,981 | | 图源来自雅迪财报 销量出现两位数下滑的雅迪，与曾经的 ...

Summary of Electric Two-Wheeler Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the electric two-wheeler industry, particularly the impact of new national standards on manufacturers and consumers [3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **New National Standards Impact**: - The new standards impose a strict weight limit on plastic components of electric two-wheelers, capping it at 3.4 kg, which poses significant challenges for manufacturers [3][4]. - The relaxation of lead-acid battery weight to 63 kg does not alleviate the issue of vehicle overweight in practice, as manufacturers prioritize quality [5]. 2. **Consumer Choices and Market Dynamics**: - The new regulations may limit consumer options, as vehicles may not meet previous demands due to weight restrictions [4]. - The introduction of the BeiDou positioning system is becoming a trend, although it is not mandatory. The cost of adding this feature could lead to a price increase of 100-200 yuan, which may deter price-sensitive consumers [4][6]. 3. **Safety and Compliance**: - The new standards eliminate the mandatory pedal riding capability but require helmets to be sold with vehicles, reflecting a balance between safety and convenience [4][7]. - The transition period before the complete ban on old standard products will see manufacturers ramping up production of older models while preparing compliant new products [4][11]. 4. **Market Transition and Sales Pressure**: - The initial phase of compliance may lead to a decline in sales as consumers adjust to the new standards, particularly in first-tier cities where enforcement is stricter [13][15]. - Companies are expected to increase production of older models during the summer peak season to maximize sales before the new regulations take full effect [14][15]. 5. **Cost Implications**: - Compliance with the new standards is expected to increase production costs by 200-400 yuan per vehicle, with an overall price increase of approximately 500 yuan anticipated for consumers [17][19]. - The cost structure of electric two-wheelers shows that batteries account for about 35% of total costs, followed by motors (15-20%) and other components [21][22]. 6. **Industry Concentration and Competitive Landscape**: - The new standards are likely to benefit leading companies by raising industry entry barriers, thus increasing market concentration [18][19]. - Smaller companies may struggle to compete, particularly in first-tier cities, as they lack the R&D capabilities of larger firms [19]. 7. **Technological Innovations**: - Leading companies are investing in self-built battery and motor factories to reduce costs and create competitive advantages through technological innovations [20]. - The focus on smart features, such as keyless entry and navigation, is becoming a differentiating factor between traditional and emerging internet-based companies [24][25]. 8. **Market Performance of Emerging Brands**: - Companies like Ninebot and Niu are gaining market share, with Ninebot's sales nearing 2 million units and a target of 4 million units by 2026 [27]. - The shift in consumer demographics towards younger buyers is favoring these emerging brands over traditional ones like Yadea and Aima [27][28]. 9. **Sales Trends and Seasonal Variations**: - March sales showed a year-on-year increase for brands like Aima, attributed to seasonal demand and government policies encouraging trade-ins [29]. 10. **Challenges in International Markets**: - Current issues in overseas markets include inconsistent vehicle standards, necessitating the development of models tailored to local regulations [30]. Additional Important Insights - The BeiDou positioning system's integration is seen as beneficial for industry growth, although its adoption may take time due to cost concerns [6][8]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as traditional manufacturers adapt to the innovations introduced by new entrants [28].

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 3 月 11 日 行业评级 领先 2 月乘用车销量同比增 26%，以旧换新政策+车企促销推动车市回暖 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 350.20 | 23.261 | 28.629 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 3.11 | 2.42 | 0.1 | | 理想汽车 | 2015 HK | 买入 | 120.34 | 113 ...

两轮车研究系列 车中旭霞 行业深度： 《 电动两轮车行业深度：政策发力叠加格局优化，行业高景气拐点渐近 》—— 202 41224 相关个股： 《春风动力-中国全地形车及中大排摩托车龙头，出海、高端化引领新成长》——20240924 核心观点 2019年新国标：部分核心省份过渡期延期执行 2019年新国标刚推出时促进非国标车替换，对行业销量拉动最为明显，过渡期到期时部分电动两轮车核心省份如河 南、江苏等对过渡期延期，山东省过渡期截止后提出暂不禁止超标车上路，导致后期整体替换力度减弱，此外行业出 现解限速、违规安装大功率电池等行为，截止目前行业中仍存在超标车。 新国标+以旧换新发力，行业有望迎来销量拐点 2024年南京"2.23"火灾凸显行业规范化问题，新国标修订版、白名单及以旧换新政策陆续出台。新国标有望从生产端 对企业提出更高要求，小企业违规可能性被降低，促进份额向头部集中；以旧换新补贴力度较高，有望给消费者带来 明显感知，拉动需求提升。 根据销量测算，不考虑政策影响下，预计行业未来有望保持5%-10%销量复合增速，两轮 车替换需求是核心贡献。假设新国标出清比例范围20%-45%，对应出清销量范围165-3 ...