Group 1: Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in China on September 12 was 13.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [1][2] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter increased slightly to 128.32 kg as of the week ending September 11, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 kg [1][2] - Short-term forecasts indicate an increase in pig supply from sample enterprises, with expected increases of 1.29%, 4.11%, and 3.92% respectively, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Recent policies emphasize capacity regulation, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity in the industry, potentially raising the long-term price level of pigs [3] - Low-cost, high-quality pig farming companies are anticipated to gain excess returns as the industry adjusts [3] Group 3: Beef Industry - The price of calves and fattening bulls remained stable, with prices at 32.44 yuan/kg and 25.97 yuan/kg respectively as of September 12, showing a year-to-date increase of 35% and 10% [4] - The beef market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with a potential upward cycle anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [4] Group 4: Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices have been in a downward trend since late 2021, reaching 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 5, 2025, a cumulative decline of 31% from peak levels [5] - The ongoing losses in the dairy industry are leading to a reduction in production capacity, which may stabilize raw milk prices in the future [5] Group 5: Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broilers decreased to 7.02 yuan/kg as of September 12, with a week-on-week decline of 0.20 yuan/kg due to increased supply [6] - Egg prices rebounded to an average of 7.15 yuan/kg from September 8-12, with a week-on-week increase of 0.62 yuan/kg, driven by pre-festival stocking [6] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures and spot prices showed mixed trends, with futures at 3079 yuan/ton and spot prices at 3060 yuan/ton as of September 12 [7] - The USDA's supply and demand report slightly adjusted the forecast for U.S. soybean planting area and ending stocks, indicating ongoing market dynamics [7]

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-9-15 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供应增长压制，期价反弹沽空 u 期现端：截至9月12日，全国现货价格13.26元/公斤，较上周跌0.46元/公斤；河南猪价13.47元/公斤，较上周价格跌0.51元/公斤；生猪2511收至13255元/吨，较上周下跌70元/吨； 11合约基差215元/吨，较上周跌440元/吨。周度生猪价格下跌，因集团、散户出栏意愿较强，而需求跟进有限，上半周猪价持续走弱，随着周三发布农业农村部召集集团猪企在9月 16日再度召开生猪产能调控大会，低位散户和二育惜售情绪增强，后半周猪价跌幅放缓；盘面在弱现实以及政策和双节备货预期支撑下窄幅调整，主力11贴水缩窄，基差走弱。周 末现货继续偏弱调整。 u 供应端：能繁母猪存栏2024年5-11月缓增，虽然2024年12月开始产能有所去化，但行业预期利润仍存，去化幅度有限，2025年5-6月产能再 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic pork prices have reached a new low for the year, with oversupply issues expected to persist in the short term [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, the price of lean pork in China has dropped to 17.15 yuan per kilogram, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - This price represents a decrease of 3.50% compared to the beginning of the month and a significant decline of 32.44% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is currently no significant improvement in terminal demand, while upstream breeding operations are actively selling off stock [1] - Slaughterhouses are controlling inventory strictly, leading to an oversupply of white pork [1] - Due to sluggish sales, slaughterhouses are reducing prices to increase volume, contributing to the downward price trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The oversupply situation is unlikely to change in the short term, with prices expected to hover at low levels through mid-September [1] - As the double festival approaches at the end of the month, there may be a slight improvement in demand, which could support a price rebound, although any increase is likely to be limited due to the increased supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic pork prices have reached a new low for the year in mid-September, primarily due to oversupply and weak demand [1] Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, the price of lean pork in China has dropped to 17.15 yuan per kilogram, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - This represents a decrease of 3.50% compared to the beginning of the month and a significant decline of 32.44% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is currently no significant improvement in terminal demand, while upstream breeding operations are actively selling off stock [1] - Slaughterhouses are controlling inventory strictly, leading to an oversupply of pork [1] - The sluggish sales at slaughterhouses have resulted in price reductions to stimulate volume, causing prices to continue to decline [1] Future Outlook - The oversupply situation is expected to persist in the short term, with prices likely to hover at low levels in mid-September [1] - As the double festival approaches in late September, there may be a slight improvement in demand, which could support a price rebound; however, due to increased supply, any price increase is expected to be limited [1]

Group 1 - The poultry industry is experiencing a price recovery, with prices for fast, medium, and slow chickens rising by 39%, 36%, and 22% respectively from June lows, driven by supply clearance and demand recovery [1] - A specific company's yellow chicken business achieved a breakeven cost of 5.6 yuan per pound in August, marking a turnaround in monthly performance [1] - The pig farming market is facing increased supply pressure, leading to price declines, with a target of 2 million pigs to be marketed by 2025, representing a 54% growth [1] Group 2 - The cost of pig farming in August was reported at 6.3 yuan per pound, with the cost of piglets dropping below 280 yuan per head [1] - As of September 15, 2023, the livestock ETF (159867.SZ) rose by 0.87%, and the related index, the CSI Livestock Index, increased by 1.01% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Haida Group, Muyuan Foods, and Tiankang Biological, saw price increases of 2.62%, 1.95%, and 5.78% respectively [1] Group 3 - The pig farming industry is under pressure from declining prices due to supply release, with potential long-term risks from feed ingredient price fluctuations [3] - Major feed companies are expected to see significant sales growth in the first half of 2025, benefiting from a recovery in downstream farming volumes [3] - Haida Group reported a 26% year-on-year increase in feed sales, with a 40% increase in overseas sales, supporting its performance [3]

Group 1 - Pork stocks experienced a volatile surge on September 15, with Delisi hitting the daily limit up [1] - Aonong Biological rose over 9%, while Tiankang Biological increased by more than 6% [1] - Other companies such as Lihua Stock, Jinxinnong, Shennong Group, and Haida Group also saw significant gains [1]

Core Insights - The monitoring of prices for 50 important production materials across 9 categories in the national circulation market indicates a mixed trend in prices for September 2025 compared to late August 2025 [1] Price Trends - Out of the 50 monitored products, 8 experienced price increases, while 40 saw price declines, and 2 remained stable [1] - The average national price for live pigs (external three yuan) is reported at 13.7 yuan per kilogram, showing no change compared to the previous period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Guangxi and Guangdong has significantly enhanced agricultural development, employment opportunities, and rural tourism, contributing to the economic upliftment of local communities in Guangxi [6][12][25]. Industry Support - The establishment of the Guangxi Longzhou Gan Niu Investment Group has created a sustainable dairy buffalo industry model, utilizing local resources like sugarcane leaves for feed, which also reduces environmental pollution [8][9]. - The company processes 60,000 tons of feed annually, involving over 1,500 local farmers and generating an income exceeding 14 million yuan for them [9]. Consumption Support - The "Zhuang Mountain Fresh" mango from Tianyang District has successfully penetrated the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area market, with significant sales growth due to improved branding and distribution channels [13][14]. - The establishment of multiple agricultural bases and partnerships with major retailers has led to over 1.2 billion yuan in sales for local agricultural products this year [14]. Labor Cooperation - The "Xiao Liang Send Workers" service in Long'an County has effectively connected displaced populations with job opportunities, facilitating over 60,000 flexible employment positions since 2020 [18][20]. - The initiative has helped generate approximately 25 million yuan in income for relocated families, ensuring their economic stability post-migration [18][20]. Cultural and Tourism Integration - The transformation of Mahai Village into a tourist destination has been driven by the integration of agriculture and tourism, significantly increasing local incomes through hospitality services [22][23]. - The village has become a model for rural tourism development, showcasing the potential of combining traditional agriculture with modern tourism practices [25].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in the pork sector, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases [1] - Delisi, Aonong Biological, and Tiankang Biological reached their daily limit up, while Jinxinnong rose over 4% and Lihua shares increased by more than 3% [1] - Haida Group, Shennong Group, Dayu Biological, and Muyuan shares all saw gains exceeding 2% [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - CRISPR gene editing technology is being increasingly applied in the genetic improvement of animals such as horses, sheep, and pigs, enhancing traits for safer and higher-quality meat products [1][2] - The use of CRISPR in horses has faced resistance from traditional sports organizations, highlighting the tension between technological advancement and traditional practices [2] - Companies like Acceligen are utilizing CRISPR to develop livestock that can better withstand climate change, such as the PRLR-SLICK cows, which have been recognized as safe for consumption by the FDA [3] Group 2: Industry Applications - The development of CRISPR-edited animals is showing potential in agriculture, with applications aimed at improving meat and dairy production efficiency [3][4] - The GalSafe pig, developed by Revivicor, aims to reduce allergic reactions in humans and has potential applications in organ transplantation [4] - The emergence of CRISPR-edited animals is also driven by the need for disease resistance, as seen in the genetically modified pigs that can resist specific viral infections [3] Group 3: Ethical and Safety Considerations - The rise of gene-edited animals raises ethical concerns, particularly regarding the potential health impacts on both the animals and consumers [5][6] - There are worries about unintended consequences, such as off-target mutations that could lead to health issues or early mortality in edited animals [6] - Continuous monitoring of the health impacts of gene editing on animals is deemed necessary to ensure their welfare and long-term health [6]