报告正文 1.生产高频跟踪：工业生产延续弱势，建筑业开工有所分化 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均不及去年同期。 上周（12月14日至12月20日），高炉开工率 环比-0.1%，同比回升0.8个百分点至-1.1%；钢材表观消费环比-0.5%、同比回升0.7个百分点至-4.1%。钢材 社会库存延续回落，环比-3.7%。 = 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 耿佩璇 图 39: 上周，高炉开工率位于低位 全国高炉开工率 (247家) • 2022 ··· 2019 ■ ■ ■ · 2020 2021 2023 2025 -- 2024 % 85 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究 图 40：上周，钢材周表观消费有所回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2019 ■ ■ ■ • 2020 2021 · 2022 2023 -- 2024 2025 1300 万吨 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 ...

北国冬日，霜雪压枝。辽山辽水间，仍激荡着破冰突围的新气象、积厚成势的新希望。 黑土地上，辽宁农业生产再显担当。今年辽宁省粮食总产量达515.56亿斤，为历史第一高产年，产量位 居全国第十二位，同比增长3.1%，增幅居粮食主产省第一位。 生产线上，辽宁开启全新探索。不久前，世界级高端工业母机在通用技术沈阳机床下线交付。此次合作 不仅取得重大技术突破，还探索开创了"场景牵引、联合研发、风险共担、利益共享"的国产工业母机协 同创新范式。 碧海潮头，辽宁敢于顶风搏浪。眼下，大连金州湾国际机场的填海工程主体已完工，总计形成陆域面积 约20平方公里。这一工程努力攻克"海上筑岛"的多项建设难题，填补了我国离岸式人工岛机场建设的技 术空白。 在全省各地，无数个拼搏的"我"集合成实干的"我们"，披荆斩棘、奋楫争先。这一年，面对纷繁复杂的 形势、交织叠加的挑战，全省上下顶住压力、迎难而上，统筹推进稳增长、促改革、惠民生、防风险， 全省经济运行基本平稳，发展韧性持续提升，改革开放深化拓展，民生福祉不断改善，社会大局保持稳 定，各项工作取得新进展新成效。 辽宁即将步入"十五五"，回望间，山水千万程，风雨未停歇。再出发，胸怀凌云志，步 ...

Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle in 2025, with both investment in cyclical sectors and thematic trends progressing simultaneously. Since Q3 2025, global manufacturing has shown signs of recovery, but demand growth is slowing, leading to a decline in the PPI of chemical products year-on-year [1][65] - On the demand side, the domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, while sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow significantly. Retail sales are stabilizing, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies [1][65] - On the supply side, China has become a global leader in the chemical industry, while the manufacturing and chemical production capacity utilization rates in the EU have been declining, particularly in Germany, where the production of basic chemicals has been continuously decreasing [1][65] Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a prolonged bottoming phase, with a three-year duration already observed. The potential for a turnaround may be approaching [1][65] - The PPI of chemical products has been under pressure, with year-on-year declines noted in major economies, including China, the EU, and Japan [9][74] - The domestic chemical industry is facing a situation of excess supply, which is exerting short-term pressure on prices, while the inventory cycle is still in a passive replenishment phase [1][65] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - The domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, with significant declines in new construction and sales figures. The cumulative sales area of new commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 11% year-on-year [18][25] - Sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating strong market demand [25][28] - Retail sales in China have shown a steady improvement, with a growth rate of 4% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, supported by consumption promotion initiatives [28][29] Group 3: Supply Side Analysis - China has replaced Europe and the US as the global leader in chemical production, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in output, while the EU and Germany have seen declines [30][36] - The production capacity in the EU has been declining, particularly in Germany, where the output of various basic chemicals has dropped significantly compared to 2019 levels [36][37] - The investment in basic chemical projects in China has turned negative, indicating a potential shift in the supply landscape as excess capacity begins to face clearing risks [1][65] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation leading companies and sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, including major players in the chemical industry such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [3][67] - The fertilizer sector is expected to benefit from slowing capacity growth and increasing overseas demand, which may support price increases [66] - The tire market is showing signs of recovery, with domestic leading companies expanding their global production bases, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [66]

苯乙烯方面，连云港石化，国恩苯乙烯装置重启，近端流动性问题有所缓解加上本周下游ABS利润持续亏损下出现负反馈，本周几家大厂裕龙， 漳州奇美，浙石化，英力士均有降负检修计划传出，苯乙烯由强现实向弱预期转变，盘面偏弱运行，近端基差走弱。后续关注"反内卷"进一步动 向，以及纯苯，苯乙烯出口成交消息。 消息面 上周东明20万吨新装置开始产出，连云港石化60万吨、广州石化7万吨装置重启，宝来35万吨检修装置影响扩大，苯乙烯产量、产能利用率环比扩 大。 机构观点 南华期货： 截至2025年12月22日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.93万吨，较上周期增0.46万吨，幅度+3.41%。商品量库存在8.455万吨，较上周期增 0.225万吨，幅度+2.73%。 12月22日苯乙烯：江苏早间市场，目前闻现货/准现货意向6510/6530；1月下6530/6550；2月下6560/6580；单位：元/吨。 国投安信期货： 成本端支撑不足，苯乙烯港口库存去库节奏有所放缓，加之未来市场供应存在增长预期，导致业者心态趋于谨慎，交投气氛偏淡，市场呈现弱势 下跌态势。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the PX profit has significantly strengthened due to the polyester restocking logic and the marginal improvement expectations for PX and PTA supply and demand next year. The price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) has recovered from $282.92/ton on December 12 to $305.12/ton on December 18 [2] - The oil and petrochemical index performed well this week, increasing by 1.60% compared to last week, with other petrochemical sectors showing the best performance within the oil and petrochemical sector, rising by 5.14% [5] - The report indicates a decline in crude oil prices, with U.S. crude oil inventories rising while gasoline inventories decreased [6][9] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have decreased, with Brent crude futures closing at $60.07/barrel, reflecting a -1.8% change from last week [7] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2,139 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories saw a decrease of 1,921 thousand barrels [11] Polyester - The price spread for polyester filament yarn has decreased, with inventory days for Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines increasing, and weaving machine operating rates declining [12][17] - The latest data shows that the prices for polyester filament yarn POY, DTY, and FDY are stable at 6,350, 7,650, and 6,570 CNY/ton respectively, with price spreads decreasing by 28, 78, and 88 CNY/ton compared to last week [14] Olefins - The report notes a decline in sample PE spot prices, with the current price at 7,160 CNY/ton, down by 2.72% from last week [24] - The petrochemical inventory for polyolefins stands at 660,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week [24]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Performance - South Korea's semiconductor exports increased by nearly 42%, driven by demand from artificial intelligence and data centers, helping to offset declines in other sectors [1] - The overall export value for the first 20 days of December grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with a previous month's growth rate of 8.2% [1] - Wireless communication equipment shipments also saw a growth of nearly 18% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - Excluding the semiconductor sector, economic data remains weak, highlighting the strong performance of the semiconductor industry [3] - The Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% and raised the 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.8%, primarily due to growth in the chip and information technology sectors [3] - Barclays Bank forecasts a 2.1% growth in South Korean exports next year, but only 1.1% when excluding semiconductor-related exports, imports, and investments [3] Group 3: Trade Agreements and Currency Impact - A significant tariff agreement was reached between Seoul and Washington, setting the maximum tariff on South Korean goods at 15%, effective from November 1 [4] - The Korean won has depreciated over 8% against the US dollar since the second half of 2025, raising concerns about inflation [4] - Both the core consumer price index and overall consumer price index in South Korea have exceeded the Bank of Korea's target of 2% [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical sector continued its upward trend on December 22, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 0.61% after a peak rise of nearly 1% during the trading session [1][9] - Key stocks in the sector, including Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengyi Petrochemical, saw significant gains of over 4%, while other companies like Enjie and Jinfatong also experienced increases of over 2% [1][9] Group 2: Company Developments - Wanhua Chemical signed an investment agreement for the "Wanhua Laizhou Green Electricity Industrial Park" project, which includes plans to build a lithium iron phosphate production facility with an annual capacity of 650,000 tons [11] - Wanhua Chemical's planned lithium iron phosphate capacity has exceeded 1 million tons, with ongoing projects including a 50,000-ton integrated project in Sichuan and an expansion plan to increase capacity from 50,000 tons to 120,000 tons per year [3][11] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to see a bottoming out of its economic cycle, with a slight decline in the chemical product price index projected for 2025, while global energy costs are decreasing [4][12] - Analysts are optimistic about the potential for recovery in the chemical sector, particularly in sub-industries such as titanium dioxide, pesticides, and chemical fibers, as supply-demand dynamics improve [4][12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current valuation levels in the chemical sector are at historical lows, suggesting a favorable environment for investment, with potential for increased dividend capabilities among Chinese chemical companies [5][12] - The Chemical ETF (516020) offers a diversified investment approach, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing an efficient way to capitalize on the sector's rebound [6][12]

文章转自2025年05月21日太平洋 金融工程团队 报告 ，分析师： 刘晓锋 /孙弋轩 报告从标的回撤规律的角度着手，使用迭代方法筛选出可适用的行业，并通过设置合理的入场阈值给定了高质量的左侧买点，以此给出了各个行业在回调阶段的配置 区间建议，奠定了太平洋金工团队后续模型改进的基础，并可作为基准对于后续模型效果作出评估。 正文报告 01 行业指数VS沪深300 沪深300由不同行业的个股组成，考虑自上而下的选股模式，考察时间区间（2010年1月至2025年3月）内的各行业回报率： 31个行业中有17个行业回报率超过了沪深 300。 综合行业指数相对沪深300的净值以及相应的回撤信息，我们可以总结以下三点： 02 偏离修复策略 行业指数相对沪深300的偏离（情景一）： 1、在行业层面，选择行业构建组合具有较大概率获取超收益，以简单平均配置为例，可以在区间内获得34%的超额回报； 2、买入并持有单行业相对于沪深300的，可能会产生了较大的回撤，以及较长的回撤时间，存在择时必要性； 3、趋势跟踪已经在前期报告做过阐述，考虑到该策略过程中无法提供空间信息，因此本文考虑空间方面的策略。 业指数相对沪深300的偏离（情景 ...

Group 1: Wealth Rankings and Key Figures - Elon Musk remains the world's richest person in 2025 with a net worth of $342 billion, largely driven by Tesla's stock price and SpaceX's valuation exceeding $200 billion [1][5][9] - Mukesh Ambani, India's richest man, has built a significant fortune through Reliance Industries, focusing on oil, petrochemicals, and telecommunications, capturing half of India's mobile users [13][16][18] - Russian billionaire Vagit Alekperov has amassed wealth through the oil and gas sector, specifically with Lukoil, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions [20][22][24] - China's richest man, Zhong Shanshan, has a projected net worth of $77.1 billion in 2025, primarily from his bottled water company Nongfu Spring and vaccine producer Wantai [26][28][34] Group 2: Business Strategies and Innovations - Musk's approach involves high-risk ventures, such as SpaceX's reusable rockets and the Starlink satellite project, which aims to provide internet access to remote areas [9][11] - Ambani's strategy includes aggressive market penetration in telecommunications and diversification into renewable energy and digital services [18][20] - Alekperov's Lukoil continues to navigate sanctions by finding alternative markets for oil exports, demonstrating resilience in a resource-dependent economy [22][24] - Zhong's dual focus on everyday consumer goods and high-demand medical products illustrates a balanced business model that mitigates volatility [36][34] Group 3: Emerging Trends in Wealth Creation - The 2024 global wealth landscape is evolving, with traditional tech billionaires still prominent, while new entrants from entertainment and sports are emerging [38][40] - Female billionaires remain underrepresented, comprising only about 10% of the total, highlighting ongoing disparities in opportunities [40][42] - The next wave of wealth creation is expected to come from individuals who can excel in seemingly ordinary sectors, emphasizing innovation and uniqueness [43]

多项自由贸易港核心政策在洋浦落地见效 封关首日，自贸港"样板间"破局开路 海南日报全媒体记者 吴心怡 海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关时，繁忙的洋浦港似乎与往日无异——码头灯火通明，船舶靠泊作 业，岸桥、场桥有序装卸集装箱。然而在涛声壮阔、潮汐涌动中，一切正在寻常之中悄然改写。 洋浦港作为区域国际集装箱枢纽港，是海南自由贸易港最大的海运对外开放口岸。12月18日清晨，伴随 着悠长响亮的鸣笛声，一艘装载着17.9万吨原油的船舶停靠在洋浦港国投洋浦油储码头30万吨级原油泊位。 这是海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关后的第一批通关"零关税"石化原辅料。封关首日，许多"第一次"在洋 浦经济开发区落地。 洋浦是海南自贸港的"样板间"，也是"烧开第一壶水"的地方。封关当日，这里的每一艘船舶、每一辆货 车、每一个集装箱都在向世界证明着，海南自贸港正迈上高水平对外开放的新起点。 新红利：多项政策落地提供实施样板 享受累计加工增值免关税的产品是伟达化工的集装吨袋。它的原料是海南炼化进口丙烷后加工生产出的 聚乙烯、聚丙烯，由伟达化工经拉丝、吹膜等多项工序制作而成，累计加工增值率达到30%以上，免关税后 成本明显下降。"我们一年在海南采 ...