Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250929: Low-level Fluctuation" [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 1,560 to 1,610 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active contract was 163,506 hands (-13,524), and the open interest was 83,884 hands (-15,758). The inventory increased by 48 tons to 25,153 tons [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 15,200 dollars (-270), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,155 dollars (-85), and the on - site closing price was 15,175 dollars (-104). The trading volume was 5,802 hands (-3,431). The LME nickel inventory decreased by 462 tons to 230,124 tons [2] Stainless Steel Futures - On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 85 to 100 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active contract was 175,317 hands (+45,420), and the open interest was 98,722 hands (-11,174). The inventory decreased by 298 tons to 87,505 tons [2] Spot Prices - The average prices of various nickel and stainless steel products, such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, 304/2B stainless steel coils, etc., mostly decreased on September 26, 2025, compared to the previous day [2] Inventory Data - SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 971 million wet tons (-12 million), SMM Shanghai保税区 nickel inventory decreased by 656 tons to 40,828 tons, and the total inventory of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel showed different trends [2] Group 3: Industry News - On September 25, 2025, the head of the Mineral and Coal Directorate General of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that about 35 trillion Indonesian rupiah of post - mining reclamation deposits had been raised from mining and coal enterprises. The compliance rate of enterprises in terms of reclamation deposits had increased from 39% to about 72% [2] - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang International Region held the opening ceremony of its 30,000 - ton electrolytic nickel production line, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Nickel - On September 26, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated downward, spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories tightened. On the demand side, demand for alloys and electrolytic nickel was stable. Considering that inventory pressure exists and the fundamentals are weak, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to gradually take profit on short positions [2] Stainless Steel - On September 26, the stainless steel main contract fluctuated downward, spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. On the supply side, stainless steel production schedules in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. Cost - end prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome were flat. With relatively loose fundamentals but cost - end support and limited inventory pressure, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and watching [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Nickel: The contradiction between pure nickel inventory accumulation and mine - end issues may increase medium - term volatility, and short - term prices may continue to oscillate within a range [4] - Stainless steel: Short - term supply - demand and cost factors are in play, steel prices will oscillate, and long - term buying at low prices has better cost - effectiveness [5] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and attention should be paid to the downward driving force of the market [27] - Polysilicon: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the policy implementation time [27] - Lithium carbonate: The increase in imported ore has slowed down the destocking of lithium carbonate, and prices will oscillate within a range [61] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel futures price closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,610 yuan/ton; the stainless steel futures price closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 90 yuan/ton [12] Fundamental Analysis - Nickel: Indonesian nickel mine issues have increased market concerns, while global refined nickel inventory has increased steeply. The supply of pure nickel is increasing while demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [4] - Stainless steel: Demand is suppressed by tariff pressure and weak real - estate consumption, while supply is expected to increase. The surplus has narrowed, but the upstream inventory is still high, and the steel price lacks upward momentum but has limited downside space [5] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 959 tons to 40,440 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 1,680 tons to 230,124 tons [7] - Nickel - stainless steel: SMM nickel - iron inventory decreased by 14% month - on - month to 28,652 tons, and stainless steel factory and social inventories showed different trends [7] Market News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and some nickel - iron smelting plants have suspended production due to losses. China has suspended a non - official subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [8][9][11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - Industrial silicon: The futures price has fallen from a high, and the spot price has risen. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 9,000 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week) [27] - Polysilicon: The futures price first fell and then rose, and the spot price remained stable. The futures price closed at 52,700 yuan/ton on Friday [27] Fundamental Analysis - Industrial silicon: Supply: The weekly output decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Demand: Downstream polysilicon and organic silicon support consumption, while the aluminum alloy and export markets are stable [28] - Polysilicon: Supply: The short - term weekly output remains high, and the upstream inventory is accumulating. Demand: The silicon wafer production is expected to decrease, and the next restocking may occur in mid - October [29][30] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment will decline, and the price may test the cost line of Xinjiang small factories. It is recommended to short at high prices, with an expected price range of 8,500 - 9,100 yuan/ton next week [31][32] - Polysilicon: Policy expectations have cooled, and the market has returned to fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see, with an expected price range of 49,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton next week [32] Lithium Carbonate Market Conditions - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated within a range. The 2511 contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton [61] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The weekly output reached a new high of 20,516 tons, and the Australian ore shipment increased significantly [62] - Demand: The domestic energy - storage market has exceeded expectations, and the cathode materials are accumulating inventory [62] - Inventory: The weekly inventory decreased to 136,800 tons, and the destocking speed has slowed down for three consecutive weeks [62] Market Outlook - The price will oscillate within a range. It is expected that the futures price will be between 70,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended for arbitrage, and upstream factories are advised to increase hedging [63][64][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices have basically returned to the fundamental logic, with high inventories and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, the eleven - week consecutive decline in inventory has ended, and accumulation has begun. The peak season is lackluster, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. With weakening cost support at the raw material end, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis of Nickel - **Price**: This week, the price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 121,380 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 120 yuan/ton from the opening price on Monday. The weekly price fluctuation range was 120,670 - 123,550 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 2.39%. LME nickel prices slightly declined to 15,210 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. In the spot market, the latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium over the SHFE 2510 contract remained unchanged from last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area decreased by 300 yuan/ton compared to last week [1]. - **Macro**: At the beginning of the week, cautious remarks from Fed officials on the prospect of interest rate cuts strengthened the US dollar, and the unchanged LPR in China reduced market risk appetite. Subsequently, the central bank's liquidity injection and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts warmed up the sentiment in the base metals sector, but the strong US economic data caused a rebound in the US dollar and a retreat of funds [2]. - **Supply**: In the nickel ore market, Philippine mine quotes remained firm, and the new typhoon "Boloiyu" was expected to affect local mine shipments. In Indonesia, although the supply of nickel ore was loose, there were frequent disturbances. In terms of refined nickel, China's refined nickel output in August 2025 was 36,695 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 29.62% [2]. - **Consumption**: In August 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 37,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.66% and a year - on - year increase of 81.16%. However, the overall increase in consumption was less than that on the supply side [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production methods of electrowon nickel varied. For example, the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel was 117,171 yuan/ton, with a profit of 3.20%, while the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel was 136,583 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 11.20% [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons to 29,008 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 230,124 tons, and China's (including bonded areas) refined nickel inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 40,440 tons [3]. Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: Adopt the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - to - long - term - Options: None [4] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel - **Price**: This week, the main stainless steel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 12,840 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from last week. The spot procurement sentiment was frustrated, and the pre - holiday procurement demand did not appear as expected [4]. - **Macro**: The central bank's liquidity injection boosted market risk appetite, but the Fed's internal differences after the rate cut and the approaching National Day holiday led to a decline in market trading activity [5]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of stainless steel increased month - on - month. The output of the 200 - series increased by 8.97% month - on - month, the 300 - series increased by 2.44% month - on - month, and the 400 - series decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [5]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak consumption season effect did not appear. Downstream terminals were cautious in purchasing. Although real - estate sales increased year - on - year, new construction areas decreased year - on - year, and the demand in the automotive retail sector declined [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel ended its continuous rise since July and slightly declined, while the price of high - carbon ferro - chrome slightly increased but lacked further upward momentum [6]. - **Inventory**: On September 26, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country increased week - on - week, ending the eleven - week consecutive decline [6]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [7]

Core View - Bullish factors: Increased disturbances at the mine end, strong price - holding mentality of Philippine mines, rising supply costs; Slight improvement in demand, with the enhanced demand in September driving supply - demand correction [3] - Bearish factors: Decline in macro - expectations, overall weakness in the metal sector after the Fed's interest rate cut; Continuous accumulation of LME nickel inventory, increasing surplus pressure on refined nickel [3] - Trading advice: Focus on short - term range trading and avoid heavy - position operations [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - **Price changes**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,990 yuan/ton, up 1,590 yuan or 1.31% week - on - week; the closing price of LME nickel 3M was 15,435 dollars/ton, up 100 dollars or 0.97% week - on - week. The prices of other nickel contracts also showed varying degrees of increase [4] - **Position and volume**: The position volume was 99,642 lots, up 54,574 lots or 121.1% week - on - week; the trading volume was 177,030 lots, up 110,931 lots or 167.83% week - on - week [4] - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 25,105 tons, down 738 tons or 2.86% week - on - week [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was - 505 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 4.72% week - on - week [4] Stainless Steel Futures - **Price changes**: The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,930 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 20 yuan or 0%. The prices of other stainless steel contracts showed slight increases [4] - **Position and volume**: The position volume was 109,896 lots, down 20,121 lots or 15.48% week - on - week; the trading volume was 129,897 lots, down 8,718 lots or 6.29% week - on - week [4] - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 87,803 tons, down 1,929 tons or 2.15% week - on - week [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was 640 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 9.86% week - on - week [4] Spot Nickel - **Price changes**: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan or 1.25%; the price of imported nickel was 123,225 yuan/ton, up 1,625 yuan or 1.34%; the price of 1 electrolytic nickel was 124,050 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.31%; the price of nickel beans was 125,350 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.29%; the price of electrodeposited nickel was 122,950 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.32% [4] Inventory - **Domestic social inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel was 41,484 tons, up 429 tons compared with the previous period [4] - **LME nickel inventory**: The LME nickel inventory was 230,586 tons, unchanged from the previous period [6] - **Stainless steel social inventory**: The stainless steel social inventory was 909 tons, up 11.8 tons [6] - **Nickel pig iron inventory**: The nickel pig iron inventory was 28,652 tons, down 614.5 tons [6] Data Graphs - **Nickel futures**: Include the closing price trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) [7][8] - **Stainless steel futures**: Show the closing price trend of stainless steel futures main contract [9][10] - **Spot nickel**: Present the average price of nickel spot [11][12] - **Primary nickel supply and inventory**: Cover China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality, total primary nickel monthly supply including imports seasonality, domestic social inventory of nickel plates and nickel beans seasonality, LME nickel inventory seasonality, etc. [13][14][15] - **Nickel ore and nickel pig iron**: Include the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality, China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price national average, Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price, etc. [16][17] - **Nickel iron production**: Show China's and Indonesia's nickel iron monthly production seasonality [18][20] - **Downstream nickel sulfate**: Include the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, the seasonality of the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the seasonality of the profit of producing electrodeposited nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China, etc. [22][24] - **Stainless steel**: Include the seasonality of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit rate, stainless steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless steel inventory seasonality [28][29][31]

Group 1 - The city of Jinchang, known for its nickel mining, is diversifying its development beyond being a "resource city" by integrating cultural heritage and ecological construction into its growth strategy [1] - The "Silk Road IP Opportunities China" event showcased how Jinchang is blending industrial heritage with cultural vitality, creating a new narrative for the city [1] Group 2 - Foreign influencers experienced traditional engraving techniques at the Jinchang engraving intangible cultural heritage experience center, highlighting the cultural significance of Chinese craftsmanship [3] - The exploration story of Mars Base 1 in Jinchang was introduced, emphasizing China's advancements in space exploration and technology, including the development of the Beidou satellite navigation system [3] Group 3 - The visit to the largest sheep milk full industry chain base in China, operated by Yuansheng Agricultural Technology Co., left a strong impression on influencers, showcasing a complete closed-loop industry from feed processing to low-temperature milk production [5] - The high-quality milk sourced from 46,000 sheep in Jinchang's agricultural sector is a solid foundation for the local economy, reflecting the city's agricultural strength [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, after the impact of macro - events ends, nickel prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, although inventory has decreased for eleven consecutive weeks and material costs have risen, the overall demand recovery is not obvious, so stainless - steel prices are expected to mainly show an interval oscillation trend [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,150 yuan/ton and closed at 121,450 yuan/ton, a change of 0.23% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 107,755 (+54,856) lots, and the open interest was 85,526 (+1,266) lots. The main contract price showed a slight upward trend, with strong night - session performance, morning - session oscillation, and slight afternoon fluctuations. Fed Chairman Powell's speech may support nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: A new round of quotes was released. The FOB price of the 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine was 31 dollars, and the CIF prices of the 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia were 50.5 and 51.5 dollars respectively. Typhoon weather affected nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas. Philippine mine quotes remained firm, and shipments from areas like Surigao were not affected. Downstream iron plants still had losses and were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remained in a loose pattern, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the domestic trade premium remaining at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading cooled slightly, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,971 (-493) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 230,586 (+132) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,895 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 122,330 (-16,687) lots, and the open interest was 116,704 (-4,171) lots. The opening price was the same as the previous day's settlement price. The night - session continued the previous day's strong trend, but the day - session weakened rapidly after opening, with the lowest point reaching 12,870 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, it oscillated in the range of 12,890 - 12,900 yuan/ton. The closing price was 10 yuan lower than the previous trading day, and the fluctuation range was only 80 yuan, indicating little difference between long and short in the market. Typhoon "Huajiaisha" led to the suspension of pick - up in Foshan, resulting in a significant decrease in trading volume [3][4]. - **Spot**: Downstream remained in a wait - and - see state, and market confidence was insufficient, resulting in light spot trading. The pre - National Day holiday stocking demand was not obvious, which was also affected by the typhoon weather to some extent. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 955.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Macro Perspective - The U.S. Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined in September but remains in expansion territory, indicating a cooling in prices [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that interest rates are still "moderately restrictive," highlighting the dual challenges facing monetary policy, while also suggesting that the stock market may be overvalued [1] Industry Analysis - According to Huazhong Futures, the 2025 RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material security for smelters, although policy disruptions persist [1] - Domestic nickel imports remained high in July, with Indonesian nickel pig iron supply also stable in August, and electrolytic nickel production maintained at elevated levels [1] - Refined nickel social inventory saw a slight decrease [1] Demand Insights - Zhongcai Futures noted that stainless steel performance improved slightly in September, while real estate data from July showed weak seasonal performance [1] - In the new energy sector, the operating rate of ternary materials improved month-on-month in September, with demand showing slight improvement during the "golden September" period [1] Market Outlook - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures indicated that disruptions from Indonesian mine closures are limited, with nickel ore prices remaining stable and no extreme weather impacts on overseas nickel mines [1] - Domestic southern port shipments are temporarily stagnant, leading to tight supply of intermediate products, with MHP spot resources in short supply and high nickel prices continuing to rise [1] - Nickel iron prices are still on an upward trend, but downstream acceptance remains weak, resulting in a slow pace of price increases [1] - The spot trading of pure nickel is sluggish, with no significant changes in premiums and discounts, suggesting that short-term nickel prices lack clear drivers and may undergo technical corrections [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Non - ferrous metals research team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel market weakened following the overall commodity trend. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, hitting a low of 120,500 yuan/ton during the session and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel remained flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton. Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, limiting the deep decline of nickel ore. NPI remains strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. Overall, the surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is still significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. However, at the current position, it is also difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai nickel market followed the overall commodity trend and weakened. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, with the lowest price during the session reaching 120,500 yuan/ton and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton [8] - Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, so the deep decline of nickel ore is limited. NPI is strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. The surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. At the current position, it is difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months while formulating a quota system. The decision is to allow the cobalt price to recover further and have more time to implement the quota framework. The decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. The previous extension expired on September 21, and an official document is expected to be issued this Sunday or next Monday. The news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is extended, the inventory of smelting enterprises is expected to remain below the safety level [9] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference that the details of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and future financial reforms will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macro - economic situation [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. Previously, it took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain national control of forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department. President Prabowo has promised to crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation [10] - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and committing to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signing the United Nations Global Compact. The company's president and CEO said it reflects the company's long - standing values of environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility, which will create long - term value for the Baptiste nickel project and stakeholders [10]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price range forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current volatility historical percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price range forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.91% - Current volatility historical percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel in the Shanghai market oscillated weakly during the day, and the non - ferrous metals market as a whole was weak - In the nickel ore market, the Indonesian Energy Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies on September 18, with an estimated impact on nickel ore quotas of less than 3 million tons. As the quota approval for the next year approaches in October, concerns about the stability of ore supply have increased - In the new energy sector, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to extend the cobalt export ban, and the total export quotas for 2025 and 2026 have been announced, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries - Nickel iron prices have remained firm recently, with no downward driving force under cost support - In the stainless steel market, there has been repeated bargaining during the week. The spot market is in a contradiction, trying to support prices but facing weak demand. The wait - and - see sentiment is strong before the holiday [3] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, including elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - Stainless steel has seen continuous de - stocking for several weeks - Indonesia's forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [5] Bearish Factors - High inventory of pure nickel - Sino - US tariff disturbances persist - Uncertainty about the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented - Weak spot trading in the stainless steel market [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market - Closing prices of nickel futures contracts decreased, with the main contract closing at 120,730 yuan/ton, down 1% - Trading volume decreased by 19.97% to 52,899 lots - Open interest decreased by 15.70% to 37,993 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 25,464 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 3.8% to - 550 yuan/ton [5] Stainless Steel Market - Closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts showed mixed trends, with the main contract closing at 12,890 yuan/ton, unchanged - Trading volume increased by 0.29% to 139,017 lots - Open interest decreased by 4.71% to 123,891 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41% to 89,008 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 7.04% to 660 yuan/ton [5] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory of nickel: 41,484 tons, an increase of 429 tons - LME nickel inventory: 230,454 tons, an increase of 1,554 tons - Stainless steel social inventory: 897.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons - Nickel pig iron inventory: 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [6] Group 8: Industry News - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, the impact of macro - events has basically subsided, nickel prices have returned to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and an unchanged oversupply pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel variety, with eleven consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, the downside space for stainless - steel prices is limited. However, the overall demand recovery is not obvious, and it is expected to show an interval oscillation trend [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, a change of 0.07% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 66,099 (+3,446) lots, and the open interest was 45,068 (-5,353) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated slightly around the previous trading day's settlement price. After the day - session opening, stimulated by the news of continued national subsidies over the weekend, it rose slightly to the daily high of 122,110 yuan/ton but then quickly declined, and finally closed with a slight increase of 80 yuan [1] - **Nickel Ore**: A new round of quotations in the nickel ore market has been released. The FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine is 31. Affected by typhoon weather, nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas is blocked. Philippine mines maintain firm quotations. In the shipping aspect, mines in areas like Surigao are not affected. Downstream iron plants are still making losses and maintain a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market remains in a pattern of continuous supply surplus. The domestic trade benchmark price in September (Phase II) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is currently at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is average, and downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed. The spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of various brands are slightly adjusted stably, and some delivery brands show a slight discount. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel remains unchanged at 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains unchanged at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,536 (-307) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,900 (+456) tons [2] Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly interval operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 138,615 (+21,690) lots, and the open interest was 130,017 (-4,171) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated upward. In the day - session, it further rose close to 13,000 yuan/ton and then slightly declined. The closing price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. Overall, the restart of national subsidies in China has improved the demand expectation for stainless steel, resulting in a relatively strong price trend today [3] - **Spot**: It is currently the traditional consumption peak season, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel has slightly recovered. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand is not obvious, and the monthly stainless - steel production has also increased simultaneously, resulting in the spot price not showing an obvious upward trend. Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, and the market is filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 340 to 640 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]