Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing significant downturns, with many bond funds facing substantial declines, including a notable drop of over 7% in a specific fund from Huachen Future Fund, which has erased nearly two years of accumulated returns [1][2] - Approximately 70% of bond funds in the market have seen declines over the past month, indicating a widespread issue across the sector [1][4] - The recent downturn is attributed to various factors, including market sentiment affected by interest rate expectations and regulatory changes regarding bond fund sales [5][6] Group 2 - The specific fund, Huachen Future Stable Income A, has seen its net asset value drop significantly, returning to levels seen in Q3 2023, with a year-to-date return of -6.65% [2][3] - The decline in the fund's value coincided with a collective drop in Vanke bonds, raising concerns that the fund may have been adversely affected by these specific securities [3][4] - The overall bond market has been under pressure since November, with long-term bond yields steepening and various funds reporting losses, indicating a challenging environment for fixed-income investments [4][5] Group 3 - Despite the current challenges, there is still a broad demand for bond investments, and some analysts suggest that opportunities may arise from market corrections [1][6] - The market is expected to stabilize as risks are gradually priced in, with a focus on structural opportunities and potential rebounds in the bond market [6][7] - Future strategies may involve identifying differences in information, actions, and product types to capitalize on market fluctuations and enhance returns [7][8]

风险提示： 宏观经济政策风险，基建投资低于预期等。 报告导读： 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。我们建议关注新型电力系统建设相关机 会。国务院以新型城镇化为主题开展集体学习，再提城市更新和稳楼市等。 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。我们建议关注新型电力系统建设相关机会。 (1)12月5日召开国务院常务会议，研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。节能降碳 是推进碳达峰碳中和、加快发展方式绿色转型的重要抓手。要更高水平更高质量做好节能降碳工作，加大统筹力度，锚定总体目标，因地制宜推进，在经济发 展中促进绿色转型、在绿色转型中实现更好发展。要切实增强节能降碳内生动力，充分发挥政策效应，不断完善市场机制，有效调动全社会的积极性，加快形 成绿色生产生活方式。(2)建筑板块关注新型电力系统建设，如风电、光伏能源施工板块，分布式光伏，抽水蓄能和新型储能，虚拟电厂，氢能产业链建设 等。 国务院以新型城镇化为主题开展集体学习，再提城市更新和稳楼市等。 (1)12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格 局"为主题进行专题学习。新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重要载体。展望"十五五" ...

2025年，在全球贸易保护主义抬头、不确定性弥漫的背景下，中国经济在"高质量发展"的主航道中稳健前行。 然而，政策刺激的边际效应在下半年显著递减。前期发力过猛导致后续额度受限，部分省份补贴暂停，加之部分家庭耐用消费品已完成更新，政策拉动效果 明显弱化。这引发了关于补贴效率与可持续性的深层思考，政策未来需向更精准、惠及更广泛人群的方向优化。 与此同时，"投资于人"理念在今年实现了历史性突破，首次与传统的"投资于物"置于同等战略高度。这标志着宏观政策从过往过度依赖基建与房地产投资， 向弥补民生短板、提升居民福祉的系统性转变。 育儿补贴、消费贷贴息、养老金上调等具体措施陆续出台，旨在通过减轻居民在养老、医疗、教育等方面的负担，激活消费潜力，扭转长期的高储蓄倾向。 这一根本思路的调整，预示着未来公共支出结构的持续优化。 2025年，中国对外经济关系经历了重大压力测试。面对美国再度掀起的超高关税战，中国一改2018年时的策略，采取了迅速而强硬的反制措施。 这份底气体现在经过十年布局形成的多元化贸易网络上：对美出口占比下降的同时，对东盟、非洲及"一带一路"沿线国家的出口实现了强劲增长。 新能源汽车、集成电路、船舶等高附加 ...

2025 年 12 月 07 日 宏观研究团队 推动基础设施 REITs 扩围 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | 国内宏观政策：加快战略性新兴产业集群发展 |  | 过去两周（11 月 23 日-12 月 6 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 经济增长方面，近期中央召开的重要会议聚焦基本医疗保险制度建设、新型城镇 化规划、城市更新行动等议题。 宏观周报 基建与产业方面, 近两周政策聚焦国家新兴产业发展示范基地创建工作启动；商 业航天高质量发展行动计划推出；推动基础设施 REITs 扩围至城市更新设施、酒 店、体育场馆、商业办公设施等领域；发改委发布《关于加强数据要素学科专业 建设和数字人才队伍建设的意见》等。 地产政策方面，各地继续推进"好房子"建设，例如北京市"十五五"规划建议 持续推进住有所居，实施以公共交通为导向的综合开发，优先向轨道交通站点周 边供应 ...

【导读】商业不动产REITs要来了 迈出扩容关键一步 商业不动产REITs激活万亿级市场 中国基金报记者 方丽 陆慧婧 2025年11月28日，证监会发布《关于推出商业不动产投资信托基金试点的公告（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《征求意见稿》），拟在"基 础设施REITs"之外，单列"商业不动产REITs"创新项目，商业综合体、商业零售、写字楼、酒店等商业物业将被纳入公募REITs投资范围。 业内人士表示，从全球成熟市场发展经验来看，商业综合体、商业零售、写字楼、酒店等商业不动产是REITs重要的底层资产。我国商业不 动产存量规模庞大，具有通过REITs盘活并拓宽权益融资渠道的内在需求。 借鉴国际经验并结合我国实际，坚持市场化法治化方向，适时推出商业不动产REITs，可以更好发挥REITs功能作用，支持构建房地产发展 新模式，进一步提升多层次资本市场服务实体经济的质效。 商业不动产纳入公募REITs范围 为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署和资本市场新"国九条"要求，推动不动产投资信托基金（REITs）市场高质量发展，丰富资本市场投融 资工具，支持构建房地产发展新模式，持续增强多层次资本市场服务实体经济质效，证监会就推 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 挂牌价调涨占比：截至 2025 年 11 月，12 个样本城市挂牌价调涨房源占比从 10 月的 5.5%下降 0.1 PCT 至 5.4%，同比降幅较 10 月收窄 7.0 PCT 至-48.6%。 周观点：（一）行业基本面下政策的边际变化可能以及针对未来的压力测试依 然是资本市场关注的要点；（二）判断净租金回报率与按揭利率之差收窄是推 动新房及二手房的合计总需求筑底的关键观察点；重视在供应缩量预期、供给 品质优化以及购房者画像显著分化推动下，新房市场供需环境较二手房更早出 现改善的特征；（三）相较于"博弈"基本面和政策，围绕合理估值区间做投 资或更可取。（1）从考虑潜在减值压力调整后的 PB 估值水平来看，当前板块 调整后 PB 约 1.2 倍，而更"纯粹"的销售前 5 重点房企调整后 PB 平均约 0.7 倍；（2）房地产板块在 24 年 9-10 月反弹后一度回调过半，近期板块有所反 弹但距离上一轮反弹高点仍有约 15%空间，而部分股票价格仍在相对低位，个 别标的当前股价距离前期反弹高点空间超 50%；（四）关注全国性和区域性房 企风险溢 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the investment attributes of real estate, suggesting that certain conditions should be met before considering property investment, such as a continuous increase in housing prices for two years with an annual growth rate exceeding 5%, rental income of over 5% per year, and zero down payment with interest subsidies [1] - A contrasting viewpoint is presented, arguing that from a pure investment perspective, real estate is not an attractive option due to high transaction costs, long selling cycles, and the need for finding buyers or sellers individually, likening it to a poorly performing stock [2] - The article highlights the importance of personal circumstances in real estate investment decisions, emphasizing that good rental locations can yield over 5% returns even after accounting for depreciation and management costs [3] Group 2 - The discussion includes historical data on Tokyo's real estate market, noting that the Tokyo real estate index peaked in 1990 and saw a significant decline by 2003, with a subsequent recovery by 2023, illustrating the volatility of real estate investments compared to stock market performance [5][6] - It is argued that in a declining population scenario, real estate may not outperform stocks, as housing is a major consumer good and population decreases limit the potential for increased housing consumption [6] - The article suggests that for investors focused on stock markets, the returns from equities are likely to be higher than those from real estate, indicating a preference for allocating funds to stocks rather than property [6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market performance in the current year has been positive, with most stocks experiencing an increase, but there is significant differentiation based on fundamentals [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The cyclical industries are facing weak overall demand, while some sectors benefit from positive changes on the supply side, showing signs of profit recovery [4] - The real estate sector continues to see both volume and price declines, with over half of the companies reporting losses in the first three quarters [4] - The liquor industry is also experiencing structural demand decline, with many companies reporting rare negative profit growth in a single quarter [4] - Banks are showing weak cyclical characteristics, but have achieved positive returns this year due to a favorable interest margin [4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The differentiation in the stock market has led to varied performance among fund managers, with the current portfolio showing slower growth [5] - The focus has been on learning about sectors like AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which occupy a significant portion of research time [5] - The portfolio has not changed much, indicating a low turnover rate, suggesting that new knowledge has not been effectively integrated into investment decisions [5] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Understanding the valuation of a stock is complex and can be both quantitative and qualitative [6] - The concept of "weight" in stocks is emphasized, where long-term dividend discounting plays a crucial role in valuation [6] - The distinction between "derivative" and "integral" investment philosophies is highlighted, with each having its own merits and challenges [6] Group 4: Risk Assessment - The value of an investment can be compared to a chicken's ability to lay eggs, where various uncertainties exist regarding its future productivity [7] - The importance of negative imagination in investment decisions is stressed, as it can help mitigate potential losses [7] Group 5: Long-term Perspective - The overall returns for investors in the secondary market are derived from total dividends minus transaction costs, emphasizing the competitive nature of investment returns [8] - The company has achieved a mixed performance over the past seven years compared to the CSI 300 Total Return Index, with a goal of navigating through market cycles successfully [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that private equity firms are maintaining high positions as the A-share market enters the final trading month of the year, with a stock position of 82.97%, marking a new high for the year and the highest in nearly 185 weeks [1][2] - The strategy among private equity firms is shifting towards balanced layouts and "high-low cuts," focusing on both high-growth industries and sectors with improved supply-demand relationships [4][7] - Private equity firms express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, with expectations of marginal improvements in corporate earnings driving market performance, indicating a potential "slow bull" trend [6][7] Group 2 - The distribution of positions among private equity firms shows an aggressive stance, with 68.99% of firms fully invested, while medium, low, and empty positions have decreased significantly [2] - Companies like Rongyang Investment and Xingshi Investment maintain high positions due to optimistic expectations for investment opportunities, driven by improving corporate earnings and fundamental factors [2][5] - The investment strategy of companies like Xiangju Capital reflects a balanced approach, focusing on assets at the bottom of the cycle with growth potential, while also tracking high-heat trend assets like AI and new energy [5] Group 3 - Private equity firms are cautious about the crowded nature of technology stocks, particularly in the AI sector, and are seeking opportunities in less crowded areas [8] - Concerns regarding potential market risks include changes in global liquidity expectations, high valuation bubbles, and inflation issues, with oil price fluctuations and U.S. monetary policy being key factors to monitor [8]

Group 1 - China's first national major scientific and technological infrastructure in the information and communication field, the Future Network Experimental Facility, has officially commenced operations, providing open experimental support for various sectors including industrial manufacturing, energy, education, and healthcare [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released a national standard for food delivery platform service management, aiming to address issues like "ghost deliveries" and enhance the rights of delivery personnel, promoting innovation and healthy competition in the food delivery industry [1] - In November, the number of second-hand residential transactions in first-tier cities reached 49,000 units, marking a seven-month high with a significant month-on-month increase of 20%, and a total of 519,000 units sold in the first eleven months of the year, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% [1] Group 2 - Multiple high-performing funds have further reduced their purchase limits, with 29 fund managers implementing purchase restrictions on 41 funds on December 4, with limits ranging from 100 yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, aimed at maintaining strategy capacity and reducing transaction costs [2] - In the U.S., the ADP employment report for November showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs, the largest drop in two and a half years, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2] - Global funds have continued to buy South Korean bonds, with overseas funds net purchasing $1.39 billion in South Korean bonds on November 28, marking the 20th consecutive day of net buying [2] Group 3 - Major global stock markets mostly rose in the past week, with the A-share indices in China collectively increasing, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.26%, and the Hang Seng Index also showing a weekly increase of 0.87% [3] - In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.50%, the S&P 500 by 0.31%, and the Nasdaq by 0.91% during the week [4] - In Asia, the South Korean Composite Index led with a 4.42% increase, while the Nikkei 225 and the Straits Times Index also saw slight gains [4] Group 4 - Recent trends in government bond yields showed a mixed performance, with the 1-year Chinese government bond yield decreasing by 0.36 basis points to 1.40%, while the 10-year U.S. government bond yield increased by 12.00 basis points to 4.14% [8] - The majority of fund indices showed an upward trend, with the Wind All Fund Index rising by 0.46% and the Wind Stock Fund Total Index increasing by 0.88% [9] Group 5 - In the commodity market, precious metals showed divergence, with COMEX gold decreasing by 0.64% and COMEX silver increasing by 2.86% [11] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.46%, while the exchange rate of the dollar against the onshore and offshore Chinese yuan showed slight declines [12]