在一众员工簇拥下，一个男人西装革履走下豪车，信步走进高档办公楼，等待着打脸看不起自己的亲戚，或者和女主虐恋情深。 这是短剧中常见的开场。然而，这些看似光鲜的拍摄场景，在现实中很可能位于一座烂尾楼里。 对于需要华丽外壳、细节不必深究的短剧来说，能够提供金玉其外而成本低廉的"烂尾楼"，和短剧，是一场双向奔赴。 短剧不仅救活了现实中的烂尾楼，也让曾经陷入"影视寒冬"的影视公司重获新生。 自今年4月的低点以来，欢瑞世纪股价已然上涨超250%。对于历来冷清的影视公司而言，这几乎是增长奇迹。 作为如今增长最为飞速的行业，短剧，到底如何救活"烂尾楼"？ 01 坐落于河南郑州的恒大养生谷，占地面积472万平方米。从名字就可以看出，这个楼盘曾经的宏大构想。 然而，随着2021年恒大因债务问题轰然"倒塌"，原本应于2022年交付的楼盘至今已经逾期超过三年。 图源：恒大官网 这一规模庞大的"烂尾楼"，也随着时间推移，逐渐成为被扫进故纸堆的旧闻。 然而，随着短剧的崛起，养生谷又如同短剧的热门题材一样，骤然"重生"。 在短剧只能容纳主演的竖屏画面里，镜头拍不到太多细节，也拍不出方寸之外的真实。 对于短剧而言，只需要多、快、大，就已经足 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer spending as a key macroeconomic policy direction for 2026 and beyond, with specific policy spaces identified for short, medium, and long-term strategies [1][4][5] - Short-term policy measures include extending and expanding direct subsidies, consumer loan interest subsidies, and implementing paid staggered vacations to enhance consumer experience and demand [1][2][3] - Medium-term strategies focus on accelerating consumption tax reform, upgrading consumption infrastructure, leveraging new technologies for product and scene development, and promoting employment-friendly development [4][5] - Long-term perspectives involve improving income distribution systems, enhancing social security, and optimizing consumption through population growth and international demand activation [5][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts on global markets, leading to a risk-on sentiment and a recovery in stock prices, particularly in technology and materials sectors [6][7][8] - Despite a mixed U.S. economic data landscape, market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7][15] - The article highlights the performance of various asset classes, noting a significant rise in copper prices and a stable demand for gold, while U.S. Treasury yields have shown volatility [9][10][12] Group 3 - The article outlines recent policy changes in housing provident fund regulations aimed at supporting housing consumption, including increased withdrawal limits and expanded usage scenarios [27][28][29] - It notes that various regions are implementing measures to optimize housing fund policies, aligning them with population policies and enhancing support for high-quality housing [27][28][29] - The article also mentions the broader context of economic recovery efforts, including the promotion of durable goods consumption and the integration of artificial intelligence in consumer sectors [35][36]

Market Overview - A-share market showed signs of recovery this week, driven by improved market sentiment and increased risk appetite, with major indices mostly rising. The ChiNext Index performed the best with a gain of 1.9%, while the STAR 50 Index was the worst performer with a decline of 0.1% [1][7]. Valuation and Sector Performance - The valuation of the Wind All A Index is currently at the 85.7 percentile since 2010. In terms of sector performance, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and defense industries performed relatively well, with gains of 5.3%, 3.7%, and 2.8% respectively. In contrast, media, real estate, and beauty care sectors lagged behind, with declines of 3.9%, 2.2%, and 2.0% respectively [2][8]. Important Events - The establishment of the Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration marks a significant step for China's commercial space industry. Additionally, U.S. President Trump indicated he might announce the new Federal Reserve Chair nominee in early 2026. Economic data released includes China's November PMI at 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and a surprising decrease of 32,000 in U.S. private sector employment according to the ADP report, reinforcing expectations for further Fed rate cuts [3][9]. Market Trends and Outlook - The market is still in a bull phase, but may experience wide fluctuations in the short term. The recent ADP employment data has heightened expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, contributing to a global market recovery that positively impacts A-shares. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, investor expectations for policy support are rising, aiding market recovery. However, the market may lack strong catalysts in the short term, leading to a focus on defensive and consumer sectors, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to be key areas of interest in the medium term [4][10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 economic outlook for China is positive, with a projected growth target of around 5% for the year, supported by effective macroeconomic policies, strong export performance, and enhanced domestic market resilience [3][7]. Group 1: Economic Support Factors - Three main factors are identified as supporting the achievement of the economic target: 1. Proactive fiscal policies, moderately loose monetary policies, and supportive consumption and investment policies [3][7]. 2. Exports have performed better than expected [3][7]. 3. The resilience of the domestic market has increased [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Two significant issues currently facing the economy are: 1. Persistently low price levels, with both production and consumer prices not returning to normal, which constrains investment, consumption, and corporate profitability [3][7]. 2. Insufficient domestic effective demand, with investment demand experiencing its first negative growth in over 40 years, showing a decline of approximately 2% from January to November, primarily due to a double-digit decrease in real estate investment, which accounts for one-third of total investment [3][7]. Group 3: Future Focus - Addressing the impact of declining real estate investment will be a key focus moving forward [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning towards a "spring rally" with potential catalysts emerging, particularly as the year-end approaches and new policies are anticipated [2][13]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes embracing "Galloping Assets" which are global competitive leaders, indicating a shift towards value reassessment [1][12]. - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points [1][12]. - The current market phase is characterized by a period of observation and consolidation, with the potential for a spring rally to begin as early as December [2][13]. Group 2: Spring Rally Insights - The "spring rally" is expected to occur around the Lunar New Year, typically 1-2 weeks prior, with historical data suggesting a strong upward trend during this period [3][5]. - The likelihood of a spring rally varies based on market conditions: high during bottom-stimulus periods, moderate during continuation phases, and limited during downturns [4][6]. - Key indicators for the timing of the rally include significant new positive or negative developments, with potential early triggers in December [6][10]. Group 3: Sector and Style Preferences - The market favors smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have shown a nearly 90% success rate with an average excess return of over 4% [6][19]. - Growth and technology sectors are highlighted as having an 80% success rate, also with an average excess return of over 4% [7][19]. - The top-performing industries are expected to be in the first tier: computer, communication, and electronics, with a second tier including machinery, chemicals, and military industries, all showing excess returns of over 3% [8][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Directions - The focus for long-term investments includes quality cyclical stocks benefiting from policy expectations in sectors like real estate, consumer goods, and resources [10][20]. - The strategy for the upcoming year includes a focus on "Galloping Assets" that align with China's economic transformation and global competition, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, consumption, and resource sectors [10][20].

普遍来说，人们的一生通常围绕着四个方面：衣食住行。这些方面决定了生活的基本质量，而许多人奋斗的目标之一就是拥有属于自己的房子。这种愿望在 世界各地几乎都有共鸣，不仅仅是中国，连日本也是如此。 在上世纪的八九十年代，日本的经济飞速发展，房地产行业也随着国家的快速繁荣而迎来繁荣时期。许多人看到房地产的巨大利润，纷纷投身其中，甚至贷 款购买房产。可惜，最终他们并没有收获房价上涨带来的财富，而是迎来了泡沫经济的崩溃。原本寄希望于赚取丰厚回报的人，不仅面临了房产的贬值，更 要背负着巨额债务，并且在失业的困境中度日，最终不得不为自己的决策付出代价。如今，不少已经步入老年的日本人，依旧在拼命工作，只为了能尽早偿 还当年借的贷款。 回头看，那些在房地产热潮中依然坚持不购房的人，似乎成了幸运儿。那么现在的他们，过得如何呢？可以说，泡沫经济时期的日本房地产市场犹如一场传 奇。有一种说法，当时如果把东京地区的所有房产交易额加起来，足够买下整个美国。虽然这种说法略显夸张，但也足以让人想象当时房价的飙升。 这一切的背后，根源在于日本政府的政策和选择。在二战中败北后，日本急需重建。幸运的是，日本获得了美国的大力援助，借此扶持，日本迅速崛 ...

当楼市出现调整，赣州老城区那些建于上世纪、已经老旧的二手房，是继续留在手中还是低价处理呢？ 近期我们关注并介绍了赣南纸厂小区在某二手房平台成交了一套单价仅1900多元的二手房，让很多老赣州人内心感到唏嘘。 其实在这波调整中，对于老城区许多上世纪八九十年代的老旧小区，这种价格还真的不是个例了。 我们必须接受一个事实，在当前房地产供求背景下，当城市发展重心转移，拆迁预期又比较难实现的时候，老房子的价值内核已经发生了改变。 许多产品功能落后、居住体验差的老破旧在这一轮周期中受到的冲击最大，甚至大有被市场抛弃的态势。 房龄突破三十年，楼层又高的两房户型，成交单价在两三千左右一平米，总价不过二十万，这样的房源在老城区并不少。 例如2025年6月15日，赣州新赣南路社区成交了一套建筑面积约65.33㎡两房一厅，成交单价3031元/㎡，成交总价19.8万元。 该房屋位于高楼层（共8层），小区建成时间大概在1990年。 又例如一个多月后的7月29日，赣州姚府里成交了一套建筑面积约67.87㎡两房一厅，成交单价2093元/㎡，成交总价仅为14.2万元。 该房屋的建成年份大概在上世纪八十年代末至九十年代初之间，同样也位于高楼层（ ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中国地产基金百人会） 著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，12月4日在接受彭博社以及日前和CNBC的对话中，谈及了美 联储降息、人民币汇率、AI科技等话题，并且对2026年的市场行情进行了展望。 洪灝指出，无论谁接任美联储主席，都将面临回购市场流动性紧张的局面，因此降息并扩表是必然选 择。 市场预期未来一年将有多次降息， 贵金属价格已反映宽松预期，他预测白银可能涨至80-100美元/盎司。 对于如火如荼的AI产业，洪灝则指出了一则风险，如果企业依赖信贷融资进行资本支出将是未来一个 潜在问题。 洪灝表示，美元处于长期下行趋势，大宗商品将因美元走弱和通胀预期保持强势。 人民币实际有效汇率被低估，有望升值至6.9以下，带动中国资产重估，明年A股可能表现优于H股。 此外，房地产市场调整已持续近五年，但行业仍需时间出清，救助规模或需约10万亿元。 展望2026年，洪灝表示，明年作为五年规划首年，政策支持力度可能加大，流动性环境改善，中国市场 或有望上涨20%以上。 投资报（liulishidian）整理精选了洪灝分享的精华内容如下： 无论谁出任美联储主席 降息并扩表是必然选择 主持人：围绕美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second "Real Estate Market Challenge" international conference in Bosnia and Herzegovina aims to address key issues in the real estate market, including legal challenges, digital transformation, market access, and emerging trends in this rapidly growing industry [1] Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Issues - The Real Estate Brokerage Law in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been in effect since 2021, but it continues to reveal shortcomings and ambiguities in practice [1] - The Federation Chamber of Commerce is collaborating with the Federal Ministry of Trade to promote the effective implementation of this law, with the conference serving as a professional platform for discussing necessary amendments [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Developments - The conference will also focus on financing channels, the development of new technologies, digital tools, and the transformation of business models, which are challenges faced by the industry [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the first week of December, the industrial production rhythm slightly accelerated. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the prices of risk assets. The improvement in the supply and demand of domestic investment products was limited. In terms of inflation, the increase in vegetable prices widened, and food prices accelerated their upward trend. In terms of exports, container shipping prices weakened, but the demand for coal transportation in the Pacific market strengthened, corresponding to the supplement of imported coal for winter storage. In terms of investment, supported by the cost side such as coal, cement prices stabilized. The apparent demand for steel weakened, and inventory destocking accelerated, indicating a relatively obvious production contraction. In the real estate sector, the transactions of new and second - hand houses both seasonally slowed down at the beginning of the month. For the bond market, the fundamental supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. The positive signals in the PMI price were worth continuous tracking. Next week, the focus should be on the fiscal and monetary statements of important meetings [3][33]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Inflation - related: Food price increases widened - Food prices accelerated their upward trend. From December 1st to 5th, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, with the decline widening again. Vegetable prices increased by 2.3% week - on - week, with the increase continuing to expand. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 1.5% and 1.7% week - on - week respectively [7]. 2. Import and export - related: Container shipping prices marginally weakened - The CCFI and SCFI indices both declined further. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week. The transportation demand on the European route was basically stable, with freight rates slightly declining, and the freight rates on the Mediterranean route increased by about 3%. The demand on the North American route grew weakly, with poor supply - demand balance. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the West and East coasts of the United States decreased by 5% and 4.7% respectively. - In terms of port transportation volume, from November 24th to 30th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 0.3% and increased by 8.4% week - on - week respectively. The monthly average year - on - year growth rates in November were + 10.2% and + 5.7% respectively, stronger than the performance in October. - The BDI and CDFI indices accelerated their rise. This week, the demand for coal transportation from Indonesia in the Panamax market slightly decreased, with reduced trading activity and slightly adjusted freight rates. However, the freight rates in the Pacific market for Capesize vessels soared, with the daily rent reaching a new high since April 2024. Australian miners continued to make inquiries, and the transportation demand for the loading period in mid - to - late December was high, and the long - distance ore routes followed the upward trend [9]. 3. Industry - related: Production and operation slightly improved - Coal price decline widened. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 3.0% week - on - week, with the decline widening. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of power plants in inland provinces remained weak year - on - year. Terminal enterprises mainly fulfilled long - term coal contracts and had low acceptance of high - priced market coal. The daily consumption of coastal power plants slightly decreased. In terms of price, some mining areas completed their production targets at the end of the month and compressed production capacity. Coupled with environmental protection and safety inspections, the growth of domestic coal production was limited, and the coal prices at the origin showed a strong trend. However, the advantage of imported coal became apparent, effectively making up for the supply gap, and the overall port coal prices remained stable. - The increase in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.1% week - on - week, compared with a 0.6% increase in the previous week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of major steel products decreased by 2.9% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.2% week - on - week, with the destocking rhythm continuing to accelerate. The apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.7% week - on - week, and that for rebar decreased by 4.6% week - on - week, with the weakening accelerating, indicating that the supply contraction was relatively greater. - The asphalt operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 0.1 percentage points week - on - week to 27.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The rush - work demand gradually decreased, and the asphalt shipment volume was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. - The increase in copper prices widened. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.5% and 4.3% week - on - week respectively. The expectation of interest rate cuts increased, the US dollar index weakened, and the prominent supply - demand gap pattern promoted the accelerated rise of copper prices. - The glass futures price decreased week - on - week. The spot production and sales of glass performed well, the industry inventory was rapidly destocked. Affected by the market production contraction, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers was boosted, the shipment speed in many places accelerated, the market sentiment of price support strengthened, and the demand side mainly replenished inventory appropriately, with the quoted prices rising and falling [16][21]. 4. Investment - related: Sales seasonally declined at the beginning of the month - Cement prices stopped falling and stabilized. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, showing signs of stabilization. The continuously strong coal prices supported the production cost, but it was the traditional off - season in the north, and the demand in the south was low due to inventory pressure. It was difficult for manufacturers to fully implement price increases, and the overall cement prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. - New - house transactions slightly declined at the beginning of the month. From November 28th to December 4th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 2.118 million square meters, a 0.6% decrease week - on - week and a 36% decrease year - on - year, with the decline continuing to widen. The sales momentum of new houses at the beginning of the month declined. - Second - hand house transactions continued to weaken. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand houses decreased by 2.7% week - on - week and 39.6% year - on - year, with the week - on - week decline widening, mainly due to the high - base effect [24][25]. 5. Consumption: The retail sales of passenger cars in November decreased by 7% year - on - year - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.263 million vehicles, a 7% decrease compared with the same period last year and a 1% increase compared with the previous month. - Crude oil prices continued to rise. As of December 5th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 0.9% and 2.6% week - on - week respectively, with the increase of the latter widening. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the US dollar index, the OPEC +'s policy of suspending production increases, and the failure to reach an agreement in the US - Russia meeting boosted oil prices [27].