Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a surge in performance forecasts, with several companies issuing "*ST" warnings, indicating potential delisting risks due to negative net assets [1][2]. Group 1: Company Announcements - Ba Yi Steel announced on January 25 that its stock may face delisting risk warnings due to expected negative net assets of between -1.95 billion to -1.76 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [2][3]. - As of January 26, a total of seven companies have disclosed potential "*ST" warnings, with five of them indicating negative net assets [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Projections - The five companies with expected negative net assets include Ba Yi Steel, ST Saiwei, Huaxia Happiness, Yijing Photovoltaic, and ST Huapeng, all of which are projected to have negative net assets by the end of 2025 [3][4]. - Huaxia Happiness is expected to report the largest loss, with projections ranging from -16 billion to -24 billion yuan, while Ba Yi Steel anticipates a loss of -1.85 billion to -2.05 billion yuan [5][6]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the announcement, Ba Yi Steel's stock price fell to the limit down price of 3.24 yuan per share, resulting in a total market capitalization of 4.967 billion yuan [2][6]. - The overall market sentiment is affected as all seven companies are projected to report net losses for 2025, indicating a challenging financial environment [5][6].

专家交流：双碳政策有哪些新变化，对建材化工行业有什 么影响？20260126 摘要 中国正从能耗双控转向碳排放双控，要求高碳项目进行环评和探评，并 建立地方碳排放考核机制，将国家达峰目标分解至各省市，重点管控电 力、钢铁、有色、建材、石化化工等八大行业。 全国碳市场已纳入 3,770 家企业，预计 2027 年将达 8,000 家，覆盖电 力、水泥、钢铁、铝等行业，未来还将纳入化工、石化、有色金属等， 这些企业需严格遵守国家规定的碳排放配额。 2027 年全国碳市场预计纳入约 8,000 家企业，其排放量占全国总排放 量的 80%左右，其余企业可通过自愿减排市场（CCR）参与，通过减排 行动获取收益。 钢铁行业在 2024-2026 年为适应过渡期，2027 年开始正常发放配额， 初期配额宽松，惩戒幅度不超过 3%，后期将收紧配额，化工行业预计 2027 年进入碳市场，初期免费发放配额，未来或过渡到有偿分配。 国内碳市场价格波动，目前约 81 元/吨，高峰时超 100 元，未来 2-3 年 预计波动范围为 80-150 元/吨，各行业可据此测算成本压力，如合成氨 等化工产品每吨成本增加几十至一两百元。 Q&A ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Steel Industry - Iron ore supply is expected to become more relaxed, with Australian shipments projected to reach a historical high of 960 million tons in 2026, an increase of 24 million tons year-on-year. Brazilian shipments are also expected to rise by approximately 10 million tons. This supply increase supports the cost reduction logic for steel companies, leading to further profit recovery in the steel industry [2][1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector shows significant signs of valuation recovery, with silver leading the charge. Industrial metals are in the early stages of recovery, while basic and energy metals are at the initial stage of bottom reversal. Short-term recommendations include increasing allocations to copper and aluminum [3][4]. Glass Fiber Sector - The glass fiber sector is experiencing price increases for electronic fabrics due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The unit profit forecast for China Jushi's electronic fabric is expected to rise from 0.7 yuan in 2025 to 1.3 yuan in 2026, potentially reaching 1.5 yuan. This could lead to an annual performance of 4.5 to 5 billion yuan for China Jushi [5][1]. Oil Shipping Sector - The oil shipping sector has seen a significant year-on-year increase in LCC freight rates, now exceeding $110,000, a rise of 87%. This is driven by increased production from South American deep-sea oil fields, OPEC's production policies, and a rebound in China's crude oil imports. The sector is entering a strong prosperity phase [8][1]. Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is witnessing a significant repair in the supply-demand balance. In 2026 and 2027, attention should be paid to sub-industries with high operating rates and limited new capacity, such as chlor-alkali, organic silicon, and PTA polyester filament. Major polyester filament manufacturers have initiated production cuts to alleviate inventory pressure [10][1]. Additional Insights Soda Ash Market - The soda ash market currently faces low price expectations due to overproduction, but demand is better than anticipated. The price has dropped below 1,100 yuan, indicating an oversold condition. Companies like Boyan Chemical are recommended due to their cost advantages and strong growth potential [11][1]. Dual Carbon Policy Impact - The dual carbon policy significantly impacts the chemical industry, with local governments tightening energy consumption limits for new projects. This affects high-energy-consuming sectors like chlor-alkali and organic silicon. Companies benefiting from this policy include Jiahua Energy and Junzheng Group [12][1]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is viewed positively under the backdrop of resource inflation, with a high probability of a bottom reversal by the end of 2026. Key recommendations include Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [19][1]. Price Trends in Coal - As of last week, thermal coal prices have stabilized around 695 yuan, while coking coal prices have increased by 150 yuan to 1,770 yuan. The prices are expected to remain stable due to winter stocking demands [20][1]. Import Trends - In 2025, China’s coal imports fell to 490 million tons, a nearly 10% decrease. The outlook for 2026 suggests continued challenges in increasing imports due to rising domestic costs and supply vulnerabilities from major exporting countries like Indonesia and Australia [21][22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations across various industries.

聚焦科技创新、现代化产业体系 世界级城市群呼之欲出 1月26日上午，广东省十四届人大五次会议在广州开幕。会议审查省人民政府关于广东省2025年国民经 济和社会发展计划执行情况与2026年计划草案的报告（以下简称"报告"）。 报告围绕粤港澳大湾区建设、现代化产业体系建设、科技创新、扩大内需、扩大开放、海洋强省等领域 展开，谋划了广东下一年重点开展的十三个方面工作。 近年来，广东在科技创新领域不断取得突破，现代化产业体系的四梁八柱也越筑越牢，同时，随着互联 互通不断加速，一个具有国际竞争力的一流湾区和世界级城市群也正呼之欲出。 为进一步深化粤港澳全方位互联互通，一批基础设施项目正有序推进。报告显示，2026年广东将深化粤 港澳大湾区轨道交通"四网融合"，推动新皇岗口岸建成并投入使用，推进广州港（601228）南沙港区五 期工程、狮子洋通道等项目建设，开工建设广州新机场、广珠(澳)高铁鹤洲至横琴段，推动莲花山通道 等项目前期工作，深化港深西部铁路、深珠通道等项目前期研究。 而在推进民生领域的"软联通"方面，报告指出，2026年将扩大"港澳药精通。源区社保通"等政策道用范 围，加快港澳青年创新创业基地设，深化粤港澳青 ...

证券日报网讯 1月26日，杭钢股份发布公告称，公司预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 为2，200万元左右，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将实现扭亏为盈；预计公司2025年年度实现归 属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为-11，500万元左右。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 1月26日，沙钢股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，上市公司股价波动受宏观经济、 市场环境、投资情绪及二级市场等多重因素综合影响。公司如有回购计划，将严格按照相关规定和要求 及时履行信息披露义务。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 01 月 26 日 金属价格为何如此繁荣 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 3 期） 频率：每周 目前金属价格繁荣是供给逻辑的结果，新一轮技术革命的迹象越来越明显，那 么未来商品价格上涨可能会转换为需求逻辑，这意味着当前较弱的能源产品价 格也会重新进入上升通道。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 56 ——地方国资会议定调改革深 化，多元布局培育新质生产 力》2026-01-25 2、《地缘紧张此起彼伏——— 国际时政周评》2026-01-25 3、《开年投资呈现积极迹象— 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年 第 2 期）》2026-01-19 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1 月 26 日，以有色金属为代表的资源品价格继续创新高。其中，伦敦现货黄 金价格一度突破 5100 美元/盎 ...

"以前是在生产车间里炼钢，现在是在流水线上造卫星。"济钢集团党委副书记、总经理刘仕君介绍， 2017年关停钢铁主业产能以来，济钢瞄准新动能不断突破，完成从"靠钢吃饭"到"无钢发展"的转型，建 成了全国最大的液体火箭发动机及动力系统测试基地、山东唯一一个通过核准的卫星总装总测基地。 济钢的蝶变，是山东大力发展新质生产力的缩影。 近年来，山东深入推进科技创新与产业创新深度融合，传统产业改造提升、新兴产业培育壮大、未来产 业超前布局，新老动能相得益彰。"为加快传统产业转型升级，山东出台化解重点产业结构性矛盾促进 提质升级的实施方案，'一业一策'推动石化、钢铁、船舶等行业优布局、调结构；加大设备更新和技术 改造力度，工业技改投资保持较好增长。"山东省工信厅厅长陈飞说，山东还扎实推进19条标志性产业 链建设，突出抓好50个战略性新兴产业集群建设，发布172项"十强产业"场景创新清单，新动能持续发 展壮大。 动能蝶变，增强创新力必须走在前。构建一流科技创新生态"1+4"政策体系，实施180余项重大科技攻关 项目，优化提升泰山、齐鲁人才工程……近年来，山东心无旁骛谋创新，改革决心之大、推动力度之强 前所未有。 转自：新华每 ...

Core Viewpoint - India and the European Union (EU) are negotiating a landmark free trade agreement that could be finalized as early as January 27, marking a significant development in trade relations after 18 years of discussions [1][2]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement is expected to create a market for 2 billion people and is projected to increase bilateral trade between India and the EU to approximately $136 billion in the fiscal year 2024-2025, with India exporting around $76 billion and importing about $60 billion [2][11]. - If signed, this will be India's largest and most comprehensive free trade agreement, allowing access to the EU's 27 member states under a single framework [2][11]. - Predictions indicate that by the fiscal year 2031, the agreement could increase India's trade surplus with the EU by over $50 billion, with the EU's share of India's total exports potentially rising from 17.3% in 2025 to 22%-23% [2][11]. Tariff Changes - Currently, the EU imposes an average tariff of about 3.8% on Indian goods, with labor-intensive sectors like textiles facing tariffs around 10% [3][12]. - The agreement aims to restore market access and reduce tariffs on key export products such as clothing, pharmaceuticals, steel, and machinery, helping Indian businesses cope with increased U.S. tariffs [3][12]. Sector-Specific Impacts - India is likely to protect politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy from the agreement, while tariffs on automobiles, wine, and spirits may be reduced gradually [4][13]. - The EU's average tariff on Indian exports is approximately 9.3%, with particularly high tariffs on automobiles and chemicals [15]. Automotive Industry Focus - India plans to reduce tariffs on EU-imported cars from 110% to 40%, a significant move to open its automotive market [16]. - The reduction will be phased, with tariffs on vehicles priced over €15,000 being lowered immediately, and further reductions expected over time [16][17]. - Currently, European car manufacturers hold less than 4% of the Indian market, dominated by local brands [16]. Challenges and Disputes - Key issues remain, including the EU's focus on intellectual property protection and India's concerns over the EU's new carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which could impose additional costs on Indian exports [5][14]. - The CBAM is viewed as a potential new border tax on Indian exports, particularly affecting small and medium enterprises due to compliance costs [6][14].

2026年1月9日，中信集团第三届"绽放杯"数字化应用大赛总决赛在北京中信大厦圆满落幕。中信集团党 委书记、董事长奚国华，党委副书记、副董事长、总经理张文武，党委副书记张世昕，党委委员、副总 经理王国权、曾琪出席并为获奖项目团队颁奖。北京市科协副主席王美艳受邀出席。 "绽放杯"大赛是中信集团数字化发展"应用绽放"行动的重要组成部分。连续三届比赛挖掘培育了一批在 不同业务领域中示范效应强、综合效益好、发展潜力大的数字化应用，为以数字化推动传统产业转型升 级提供了借鉴和引领。 本届大赛设置了"人工智能+"、安全信创、开放创新、智能体四个赛道，旨在引导各单位贯彻落实"人工 智能+"行动、深化数字技术融合应用、筑牢网络安全防线。大赛自2025年10月启动以来，共计64家单 位153个项目参赛，应用案例覆盖金融、制造、生物育种、电力等多个领域。来自中国科学院、北京大 学、北京航空航天大学、中央财经大学、中国移动（600941）等产学研知名机构的35名外部专家评委， 围绕技术创新、应用成效、推广价值等维度对参赛项目进行专业评审。经过层层选拔，"中信天盾智能 防控项目"等3个项目荣获一等奖，"场外柜台交易(OTC)系统国产 ...