Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a new round of increases driven by liquidity, with both internal and external liquidity remaining abundant [2][6] - Short-term liquidity constraints have eased due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and continuous inflow of southbound funds [2][3] - The earnings growth of Hong Kong-listed companies is at a historically low level, with a clear distinction between new and old economic structures [2][7] Market Liquidity and Valuation - The continuous inflow of southbound funds has surpassed 1 trillion HKD this year, accounting for about 30% of market transactions, providing significant support to the market [3][27] - The local liquidity in Hong Kong showed signs of improvement after a brief tightening period, with HIBOR rates stabilizing [3][20] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index is significantly lower than that of major global indices, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery [32][34] Fundamental and Policy Analysis - The earnings growth of Hong Kong-listed companies is low, with a reported 0.9% decline in revenue and a 5.4% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [7] - The government continues to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, emphasizing effective execution [11][12] - The focus of industrial policy is on "Artificial Intelligence +", with the government accelerating the cultivation of new productive forces [14][15] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy includes three offensive sectors (technology, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials) and two defensive positions (turnaround stocks and high-dividend stocks) [4][52] - Technology stocks are expected to rebound as market pessimism fades, with significant growth potential in high-end manufacturing [54][62] - Non-bank financials are highlighted for their strong beta characteristics, with brokerage firms experiencing record trading volumes [70] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is anticipated to benefit from improved earnings and capital expenditures, with AI and internet companies showing resilience [57][64] - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to maintain upward momentum due to a weak dollar and abundant liquidity [66][68] - High-dividend stocks are in demand as investors seek stable income amidst increasing southbound fund inflows [4][31]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 09 月 15 日 流动性驱动港股新一轮上涨，聚焦三进攻+两底仓 ——港股 9 月策略月报 展望后市，港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎 来新一轮上涨。从港股中报数据来看，港股公司业绩增速处于历史较低水平， 新旧经济结构分化明显，以科技为主导的结构性行情具有坚实的盈利支撑。配 置方向上聚焦三进攻（科技、有色、非银）+两底仓（困境反转、红利）。 ❑ 风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期、海外政策超预期收紧。 专题报告 相关报告 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1、《港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何 ——港股系列研究报告（1）》 2、《港股市场流动性跟踪框架 ——港股系列研究报告（2）》 策略研究 一、大势研判：流动性驱动反弹，突出结构性机会 短期观点：港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎来新 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining core investment themes while exploring new platforms in the A-share market for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][4] - Key recommended sectors include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military industry, financial IT, power equipment, and agricultural products [3] - The report anticipates a more abundant liquidity environment due to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, which may enhance market expectations [4][10] Group 2 - Economic growth is projected to steadily decline, with GDP growth expected at 5.0% for 2025, and 4.6% for Q4 2025 [10][11] - Consumer retail sales are forecasted to grow by 3.8% for the year, with a significant slowdown in investment across various sectors, particularly in real estate, which is expected to decline by 14.3% [10][11] - The report highlights that while exports are expected to maintain a high level of activity, a slight decline in growth is anticipated in Q4 due to high base effects from the previous year [19][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the anticipated recovery of the RMB exchange rate, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may attract foreign capital inflows [42][61] - It notes that the central bank has a clear intention to guide the RMB towards appreciation, which is crucial for maintaining market liquidity [47][61] - The report also indicates that the RMB's appreciation could lead to increased foreign investment in domestic stocks, enhancing overall market liquidity [61][62]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the market, predicting a "systematic slow bull" trend with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to challenge the 0.618 retracement level of the largest decline since 2015, indicating ample bullish potential [4][68][69] - The report emphasizes a market style rotation favoring mid to large-cap stocks, with a focus on growth-oriented valuations, particularly in the consumer, cyclical, and growth sectors [5][81] - The report identifies three key "expectation gaps" for industry allocation: the dominance of large financials in market height, the need for investment and consumption to meet GDP growth targets, and the potential shift in technology investments from hardware to software sectors [6][84] Group 2 - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve for growth, consumption, and cyclical styles, while financial and stable styles may see a decline [84] - The report notes that the recent policy measures have been supportive, with a focus on technology, real estate, and consumption, aligning with the current economic characteristics [12][18] - The report suggests that the construction of new policy financial tools is likely to support infrastructure investment growth, which may positively impact related sectors [18][84]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index declining while the ChiNext Index remains strong, indicating sector-specific movements and underlying market dynamics [1] Market Performance - As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26% to 3860.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63% to 13005.77 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.52% to 3066.18 points [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached 23034 billion [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as insurance, banking, liquor, brokerage, and non-ferrous metals experienced declines, while agriculture, automotive, and real estate sectors saw gains [1] - Active sectors included online gaming, CXO concepts, and robotics [1] Investment Insights - Huaxi Securities emphasizes that the driving force behind the current bull market remains unchanged, with strong policy support for stabilizing the stock market and abundant potential incremental funds from residents [1] - High-growth sectors are expected to enjoy valuation premiums during industrial transformations, with a focus on hard technology and new productivity areas likely to receive policy catalysts following the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October [1] - The recent increase in overseas AI industry capital expenditure expectations has positively influenced market sentiment [1] - A selection of high-growth sectors is recommended, including solid-state batteries, energy storage, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI applications, and humanoid robots, as well as new consumption areas like IP economy and oral tobacco [1] - The backdrop of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may provide dual support for Hong Kong stocks through foreign and southbound capital inflows, particularly in the internet sector [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that macro narratives, disappointing domestic economic data for July, the Federal Reserve's open stance on interest rate cuts, and abundant market liquidity are key factors driving market strength. The report anticipates that after fluctuations, non-bank financials, represented by brokerages, are likely to show an upward trend [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the strengthening trends in the brokerage and financial IT sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Guolian Minsheng and those with valuation expansion potential like Dongfang Securities and Huatai Securities [1][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Main Points - The report covers the performance of the CSI 300 index at 4522 points (up 1.38%), the insurance index at 1288.79 points (down 0.7%), and the brokerage index at 7251.34 points (up 0.66%) for the week of September 8-12, 2025 [7]. - The report notes that the U.S. CPI for August met expectations, but initial jobless claims data was unexpectedly poor, reinforcing expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year [7][8]. 2. Key Investment Portfolio 2.1 Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is viewed as having attractive valuation recovery potential, with specific recommendations for stocks such as China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life Insurance [12]. 2.2 Brokerage Sector - The report highlights the potential of mid-sized securities firms benefiting from innovation and market conditions, recommending stocks like Dongfang Wealth and Zhejiang Securities. It also suggests focusing on leading firms with diversified revenue structures such as Huatai Securities and China Galaxy Securities [13].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the positive impact of the comprehensive deepening reform of technology finance, which has led to a strong rise in financial technology and brokerage concepts, as evidenced by the performance of related ETFs [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 11:10 AM on September 15, the Financial Technology ETF Huaxia (516100) increased by 0.52%, with mixed performance among its holdings [1]. - Leading stocks included Ronglian Technology, Wealth Trend, New Morning Technology, Guiding Compass, and Shenzhou Information, while stocks like Donghua Software, Jinke New Materials, and Digital Certification experienced significant declines [1]. - The Brokerage ETF Fund (515010) rose by 0.41% [1]. Group 2: Policy and Strategic Implications - The Central Committee's decision on further deepening reforms emphasizes the systematic support role of technology finance, aiming to enhance its functional positioning and promote the integration of innovation, industry, value, and financial chains [1]. - The initiative is expected to support the construction of a strong technology and financial nation, contributing to the overall modernization and national rejuvenation efforts in China [1]. Group 3: ETF Composition and Benefits - The Financial Technology ETF Huaxia (516100) tracks the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index, covering sectors such as stock trading software, software development, digital currency, and digital security [1]. - It has a stablecoin content of 21.22%, digital currency content of 36.12%, and stock trading software content of 22.48%, all of which are the highest among market ETFs [1]. - The ETF is anticipated to benefit from the market recovery and the dual advantages of AI [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high of 3888 points, setting a new annual high [2][3][16] - The technology sector remains the main driving force of the market, with expectations for continued performance despite recent fluctuations [2][3][16] - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with more stocks declining than rising, indicating a cautious approach among investors [5][19] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to continue as the main focus, with potential for internal rotation and high-low switches within the sector [2][3][16] - Solid-state batteries and new technologies in the renewable energy sector are highlighted as areas of opportunity, particularly for leading companies with core technology reserves [2][3][16] - The cyclical sectors and high-end manufacturing are seen as key beneficiaries of economic recovery, presenting further investment opportunities [2][3][16] - The brokerage sector is benefiting from increased market activity, with direct profits from brokerage and margin financing businesses [2][3][16] Recent Performance - The three major indices have all reached new highs for the year, indicating a potential continuation of the volatile bull market [3][17] - The PPI in the US decreased by 0.1% in August, easing inflationary pressures and raising expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3][17] - Trading volume has rebounded, with total trading exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a return to a strong trading environment [3][17] Investment Strategy - For companies with strong fundamentals and clear industry prospects, maintaining positions is recommended [18] - It is advisable to reduce exposure to sectors that have seen excessive gains and high valuations [18] - Attention should be given to second-tier technology leaders, cyclical sectors, and brokerage stocks during market corrections for structural opportunities [18]

Group 1: Company Analysis - Dongfang Tieta (002545.SZ) - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.12 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.60 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of +98.43%, +17.16%, and +21.99% respectively [10][12] - The production of potassium chloride and phosphate projects is anticipated to drive significant revenue growth, with a target price of 17.1 yuan based on a 19x PE valuation for 2025 [10][11] - Concerns about potential oversupply in the potassium chloride and phosphate markets are mitigated by projections indicating a supply gap until 2028, suggesting sustained industry high profitability [10][11] Group 2: Company Analysis - Jinkong Coal Industry (601001.SH) - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.06 billion, 2.39 billion, and 2.80 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with EPS of 1.23, 1.43, and 1.68 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -26.58%, +15.81%, and +17.43% respectively [14][15] - The target price is set at 15.23 yuan per share, based on a combination of absolute and relative valuation methods [14][15] - The company is expected to maintain stable coal prices in the range of 700-800 yuan per ton, supported by a balanced supply-demand scenario [14][15] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Financial Data - The financial data for August indicates a decline in loan growth, with new loans amounting to 590 billion yuan, down from 900 billion yuan year-on-year [17][18] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, lower than the previous year's 3 trillion yuan, reflecting weak credit demand [17][18] - M2 growth remained steady at 8.8%, while M1 growth accelerated to 6%, indicating a shift in deposit behavior towards equity markets [17][18] Group 4: Industry Analysis - Public Fund Market - The public fund market saw a significant increase in the total scale of non-monetary funds, reaching 10.2 trillion yuan, up 6.9% from the previous half [20][21] - Equity fund holdings increased by 5.9% to 5.14 trillion yuan, with stock index funds growing by 14.6% to 1.95 trillion yuan [20][21] - The market share of banks, brokers, and third-party institutions in equity funds was 26.2%, 17.2%, and 19.3% respectively, indicating a slight decline in market share for banks and brokers [20][21]

Group 1 - The brokerage sector experienced a low opening but rallied, with Guosheng Financial leading gains at 4% and Dongfang Caifu rising over 1% [1] - The 300 billion yuan top-tier brokerage ETF (512000) saw a slight increase of 0.33%, with a trading volume exceeding 400 million yuan within half a day, indicating active trading [1] - Financial data for August revealed a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan in household deposits, while non-bank deposits increased by 550 billion yuan, suggesting a shift towards the stock market [3] Group 2 - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.65 million, a 35% increase from July, with average daily trading volume hitting 2.25 trillion yuan, surpassing levels seen in September 2024 and June 2015 [3] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the active market environment, with continuous inflows into the brokerage ETF totaling 1.698 billion yuan over the last five trading days and over 7.6 billion yuan in the past 20 days [3] - Open-source Securities noted that the brokerage sector's valuation remains low, with institutional holdings being relatively low, highlighting the potential for growth driven by trading volume and policy factors [5] Group 3 - Dongwu Securities emphasized that the average valuation of the non-bank financial sector is still low, providing a safety margin, and the transformation of the brokerage industry is likely to create new growth points [5] - The brokerage ETF (512000) has surpassed 33 billion yuan in size, setting a new historical high, with an average daily trading volume of 957 million yuan, making it one of the leading ETFs in A-shares in terms of scale and liquidity [5] - The brokerage ETF passively tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages [6]