港股市场黄金及贵金属概念股走强，其中，中国白银集团涨超5%，赤峰黄金、山东黄金涨超3%，灵宝 黄金、紫金矿业涨超2%。 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

Group 1: Historical Significance of Gold Artifacts - The Sanxingdui gold artifacts represent the peak of early precious metal craftsmanship in ancient China, with over 2000 grams of gold used in various items such as gold staffs and masks [1] - The earliest known coins were minted in Lydia around the 6th century BC, made from natural gold-silver alloys, leading to significant wealth for the Lydians [2] - The oldest known Chinese coins, known as Yingyuan, were used during the Warring States period and had a gold content of over 90%, primarily used for significant transactions and gifts [3] Group 2: The Golden Age of the Western Han Dynasty - The largest quantity of gold artifacts found in China comes from the Western Han tomb of the Marquis of Haihun, with 478 pieces totaling 115 kilograms, marking the "Golden Age" of the Western Han [4] - The purity of the gold artifacts from this period is exceptionally high, reaching 99%, with various forms serving both currency and ceremonial purposes [4] Group 3: Modern Gold Utilization and Value - Colombia is renowned for its historical gold production, with the Bogotá Gold Museum housing over 30,000 ancient gold artifacts [11] - Modern smartphones contain gold in various components, with an iPhone containing approximately 0.034 grams of gold, valued at about 13.3 yuan [11] - Historically, the total market value of all gold mined is around $30 trillion, with annual supply and demand stable at approximately 4,500 tons [12][13]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector experienced a significant afternoon rally, with Shanjin International rising over 5% [2] - Other companies in the sector, including Hunan Silver, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold, also saw increases in their stock prices [2]

港股黄金股集体跳涨，紫金、赤峰一天就涨了五六个百分点。 嗨翻了，金价干到4300美元了！ 别以为这只是市场一时冲动——这背后，是全球资金在用真金白银投票。 咱们普通人别光看热闹，背后藏着的，可能是未来几年最稳当的投资方向之一。 最近几天，国际金价又刷出新纪录——12月12日盘中一度站上4320美元/盎司，日内涨了近0.5%。 这个价格，已经逼近今年10月以来的最高点。 很多人以为金价涨是因为中东又紧张了、美国又要降息了，其实没那么简单。 周叔翻了下最新数据，发现真正推着金价往上走的，是三股力量：地缘冲突没停过、全球央行还在悄悄 买金、美联储政策风向变了。 特别是中国，截至11月底，官方黄金储备已经连续多个月增加，现在总量达到7412万盎司，比10月又多 了3万盎司。 金价飙到新高，不是偶然 更关键的是，这轮买金的主力变了。 以前大家觉得是各国央行在囤，但现在美国的ETF资金大举流入，普通投资者和机构也在加仓。 花旗甚至算了一笔账：如果全球家庭把资产中的黄金比例提高1.5%，就得吃掉未来18年全世界挖出来 的金子。 供需严重失衡，价格不涨才怪。 黄金股集体爆发，业绩撑得起股价 12月中旬，港股黄金板块全线飘红： ...

摘要今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，国际黄金在4320美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4320.31美元/盎 司，日内上涨0.42%。盘中最高触及4321.82美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约21美元。 短线技术面与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行节奏，短期有望继续测试 上方阻力位。 今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，国际黄金在4320美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4320.31美元/盎司，日 内上涨0.42%。盘中最高触及4321.82美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约21美元。短线技 术面与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行节奏，短期有望继续测试上方阻 力位。 【要闻速递】 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 昨晚非农数据利空，失业金数据却利多，黄金价格最终冲高回落，依然徘徊在大区间震荡的范围内。非 农数据未能助力黄金突破震荡格局，那么市场焦点可能将转向周四晚间的CPI数据。预计今日黄金大概 率继续维持震荡走势，投资者可在日内区间内采取高抛低吸的策略。 美国财政部长贝森特对经济前景表达了乐观态度，预测2025年美国GDP增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - Most analysts expect gold and silver prices to reach new record highs by the end of the year, but Avi Gilburt warns that this price increase is nearing its final phase [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gilburt suggests that the current rally in precious metals is due to a "reset" that occurred after years of declining investor interest following 2015 [1] - He believes that this is not the beginning of a new cycle but rather the end of a very long cycle [1] - The price of gold and silver may continue to rise in the coming months, but investors should prepare for a potential multi-year correction starting as early as next year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The recent increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, has raised questions about whether it will be sufficient for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates next year [2] - Analysts are awaiting the release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which could influence demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [2] Group 3: Market Performance - On Tuesday, gold and silver futures saw slight declines, reversing gains from earlier due to the delayed release of the higher-than-expected unemployment rate [2] - The settlement price for December gold futures was $4,304.50 per ounce, down 0.05%, ending a three-day streak of increases [2] - December silver futures settled at $62.70 per ounce, down 0.4%, but both metals remain at their third-highest settlement levels of the year [2]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The global monetary policy is shifting towards easing, with a significant increase in the proportion of central banks cutting rates from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025, indicating a transition from a tightening to an easing cycle [1] - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential re-initiation of quantitative easing (QE), with the contraction rate of major central banks' balance sheets narrowing from -11.16% in April 2024 to -0.89% in October 2025 [2] - Historical data shows that during previous QE periods, commodity price indices, including energy and metals, experienced significant increases, with energy indices rising by 131.88% and metal price indices by 55.29% from 2020 to 2022 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risk index has reached its third-highest level since the 1973 Middle East War, significantly increasing the safe-haven premium for precious metals like gold [3] - Gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to a structural tightening in supply, with global gold consumption averaging around 4,616 tons annually and central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years [4] - Silver supply is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.2% from 31,529 tons in 2024 to 32,666 tons in 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9%, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [6] Group 3: Specific Metal Insights - Platinum is anticipated to maintain a structural supply shortage, with a projected supply gap of 39 tons in 2025 due to weak mining supply and slow recovery in demand [7] - The demand for platinum jewelry is expected to recover due to high gold prices, while industrial demand remains resilient despite potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies [7] - The ongoing structural improvements in silver supply-demand dynamics and the increase in liquidity premiums are likely to support higher silver pricing [6]

大宗周期-有色金属行业主题报告 20251216 摘要 2026 年黄金价格预计将受益于美元信用走弱，美联储降息预期、鲍威 尔卸任后可能出现的政策不确定性，以及美国财政和政治问题，将共同 推动金价上涨，全球央行购金也将形成支撑。 铜市场方面，海外铜矿项目面临资源禀赋降低、政策约束强化等问题， 限制了产能释放。同时，AI 硬件和算力基础设施建设将显著拉动铜需求， 预计铜价仍将处于中枢上行趋势。 电解铝市场，国内产能接近天花板，海外高电价加剧了产能运行的不确 定性。尽管如此，新能源汽车需求的强劲增长以及国内外电解铝库存处 于历史低位，预示着电解铝价格弹性有望进一步放大。 锡市场供应端面临印尼打击非法采矿、缅甸复产缓慢以及刚果（金）战 乱等多重扰动，导致全球锡供应紧张。国内锡矿加工费已触及近五年低 位，AI 产业增长将带动锡焊料需求，预计价格中枢将开启长周期上行趋 势。 碳酸锂市场在 2026 年将延续强劲势头，国内云母矿供应波动风险依然 存在，海外锂资源扩张周期进入中后段。新能源汽车和储能需求的快速 增长将为碳酸锂提供支撑，储能有望成为新的增长极。 Q&A 展望 2026 年，有色金属板块的投资逻辑主要集中在三条 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for October and November showed a decline of 105,000 jobs in October and an increase of 64,000 jobs in November, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [2] - The labor market remains weak, and the Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing labor market stability and inflation control, with the non-farm report not significantly impacting gold prices [2] - Gold prices are currently consolidating and have not approached the historical high of $4,380 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The market has likely absorbed the impact of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in Russian oil exports and a subsequent decline in oil prices [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.81 million barrels as of the week ending December 5, indicating weak demand and a sluggish market [5] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including U.S. efforts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggests that the oil market will continue to experience an oversupply and a downward trend [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a range of $4,275 to $4,350, with a focus on potential breakout points [3] - Oil prices are nearing an annual low of $55.10, with key support at $54.60 and resistance at $55.80 [6] - The Nasdaq index is in a high-level consolidation phase, with support at 24,900 and resistance at 25,250 [8] - Copper prices are fluctuating between $5.20 and $5.43, suggesting a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [8]