1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy and financial markets are being significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, central bank policies, and macroeconomic data [2][13][18] - The commodity market, especially the energy and metal sectors, is experiencing price fluctuations due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand dynamics [2][3] - The bond market shows a complex situation with different trends in yields and prices, affected by factors like credit supply - demand and central bank operations [21][26] - The stock market has seen declines in both A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, with individual stocks and sectors performing differently [29][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, unchanged from the previous quarter but up from 5.3% in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, down from 50.4% [1] - Social financing scale in May 2025 was 22871.00 billion yuan, up from 11591.00 billion yuan in the previous month [1] - CPI in May 2025 was - 0.1% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous month but down from 0.3% in the same period last year; PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, down from - 2.7% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell, believing that the Fed should have cut interest rates by 2.5 percentage points, which could save billions on short - term debt [2] - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, Brent crude futures have an implied geopolitical risk premium of about $8/barrel, which may expand if the US intervenes [2] 3.2.2 Metals - China is accelerating the review of rare - earth export license applications and has approved a certain number of compliant applications [3] - 95% of respondents expect global central banks to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, and UBS expects the gold price to reach about $3500/ounce by the end of this year [3] - Silver prices have risen by over 11% since June, breaking a 13 - year high, driven by industrial demand recovery [3] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Canada will take additional tariff measures to address overcapacity and unfair trade in the steel and aluminum industries [6] - First Quantum is preparing to ship copper from its Panama mine [6] - Indonesia is strengthening its steel industry by focusing on stainless - steel production in the oil and gas field [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC Secretary - General said that global oil demand remains resilient and will be an important part of the energy structure in the next two decades [7] - Different institutions have different forecasts for oil prices under different scenarios of Iranian oil supply disruptions [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The global cotton market may see a large - scale increase in production, which may put pressure on cotton prices when new flowers are listed in October [10] - The large - scale wheat harvest in China's "Three Summers" is basically over, with a 96% harvest progress as of June 18 [10] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 19, the central bank conducted 2035 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 842 billion yuan [12] 3.3.2 Key News - China's President Xi Jinping proposed four points on the Middle East situation during a call with Russia's President Putin [13] - Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but has not issued a final order yet [13] - The central bank of some European countries cut interest rates, while the US and UK maintained their rates [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market - Bank - to - bank main interest - rate bonds' yields mostly rose, and treasury - bond futures showed a differentiated trend [21] - Exchange - traded bonds had different price movements, with some rising and some falling [21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 14 points, while the central parity rate was up 32 points [25] - The US dollar index fell 0.12%, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [25] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the credit - bond market has a prominent performance, and short - end coupon assets are preferred [26] - Huatai Securities suggests a "high - odds + left - hand + trading - oriented" allocation strategy [27] 3.4 Stock Market - On Thursday, A - shares fell unilaterally, with over 4600 stocks declining, while oil and gas stocks and solid - state battery concepts rose [29] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.99%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.42% [30] - Bubble Mart's stock price fell over 5% on June 19 due to a slump in the secondary market of its Labubu series [31]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | | | P | | | | 原城 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -2509 | 13500 | 1354 | 35/0 | 13510 | 1354 | 1 | 0.30% | 124616 | 53342 | | | CF2601 | 13510 | 1353 | 3570 | 13520 | 13545 | | 0.26% | 23412 | 51537 | ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) are mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1400 and above, and for Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 31 - grade double 29 cotton, the basis is mostly at CF09 + 900 and above, with some low - basis at 800 - 900, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market is slightly better but still dull, and the yarn price is difficult to rise and remains stable. The profit of spinning enterprises has deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market is sluggish, and the price remains stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al - Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories have gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate is low [7]. - In the international market, the U.S. cotton planting progress is 85% (89% last year), and the good - to - excellent rate is 48% (54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply - demand report increased the U.S. cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending stocks to 960,000 tons. The U.S. cotton fundamentals are good, and the ICE cotton futures are strongly supported. In the domestic market, with the stable - to - increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or increase. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. The downstream industry is currently in a weak state, with finished product inventories gradually accumulating, and the decline in the operating rate is not obvious. In the short term, the fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8]. Operation Suggestions - Short - term fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range fluctuating adjustment. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 15, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 85% (89% last year, 90% five - year average, 76% the previous week), the budding rate was 19% (21% last year, 17% five - year average, 12% the previous week), the boll - opening rate was 3% (0% the previous week, 5% last year, 3% five - year average), and the good - to - excellent rate was 48% (54% last year). - As of June 14, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 2.8% (1.4% last week, 3.1% last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][19][25][28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Fundamentals in Malaysia are favorable with a 4% decline in production and a 14% increase in exports in the first half - month. BMD palm oil is in a stagnant and adjusted pattern near 4100 ringgit, with support around 4000 ringgit. Domestic palm oil has limited demand and is easily affected by the international market [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA's bio - diesel proposal is positive, and the May US soybean oil inventory was lower than expected. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and rising CBOT soybean prices support the market [1]. Meal - The market is affected by policies such as China - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel mixing requirements. Brazilian soybean sales progress has declined recently, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [3]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high. In the long term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [5]. Pork - The spot price of pork is in a volatile structure. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and the upward drive is weak. However, there is support from the purchase and storage policy [9][10]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, and the original sugar is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak and volatile [14][15]. Cotton - The old - crop basis supports cotton prices, but the expected high yield of new cotton creates long - term pressure. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [17]. Eggs - The national egg supply is large. It is expected that egg prices will decline slightly and then stabilize next week, with some factors potentially pulling up prices later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean oil**: On June 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8320 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7614 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 706 yuan/ton, down 2.49% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8810 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2509 was 8284 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the basis was 526 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; the futures price of O1509 was 9230 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 520 yuan/ton, up 11.59% [1]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; the basis was - 154 yuan/ton, down 23.20% [3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the basis was - 72 yuan/ton, up 20.88% [3]. Corn - **Corn**: On June 17, the futures price of Corn 2507 was 2364 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the basis was 6 yuan/ton, down 71.43% [5]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 35 yuan/ton, up 12.90% [5]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of Live Pig 2507 was 13305 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Live Pig 2509 was 13815 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the 7 - 9 spread was 510 yuan/ton, up 7.37% [9]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan and Shandong were 14250 yuan/ton and 14500 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5554 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; the price of Sugar 2509 was 5691 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; ICE raw sugar was 16.45 cents/pound, down 3.35% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6030 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price in Kunming was 5865 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 was 13525 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of Cotton 2601 was 13530 yuan/ton, unchanged; ICE US cotton was 67.64 cents/pound, down 0.60% [17]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14762 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14862 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [17]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract was 3649 yuan/500KG, down 0.55%; the price of the Egg 07 contract was 2855 yuan/500KG, down 1.35% [19]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.77 yuan/jin, up 2.49% [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The spot cotton price index has increased, but the downstream cotton yarn and cotton fabric markets are weak, and spinning mill profits have deteriorated. The开机 rate of local weaving factories in Xinjiang has increased after the festival, but the overall rate remains low. [7] - Affected by the Middle - East conflict, international agricultural products have risen. The signing and shipment of US cotton are in good progress, and the USDA report has adjusted relevant data favorably. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase steadily, and there is a risk of high - temperature damage to cotton. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and macro changes should be monitored. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for cotton sales in different regions vary. The cotton yarn market has slightly better but still weak transactions, with prices difficult to rise. The cotton fabric market is dull, and prices are stable and weak. [7] - **Analysis of Market Conditions**: Overseas, the increase in crude oil has driven up agricultural products. The signing and shipment of US cotton is good, and the USDA report has positive adjustments. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase, but there is a risk of high - temperature damage. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. [8] 2. Industry News - As of the week of June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76%, the budding rate was 12%, and the good - quality rate was 49%. As of June 7, 2025, the Brazilian cotton harvest progress was 1.4%. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange - rate data. [18][19][21][26]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 调研报告 2025 年 6 月 16 日 【银河调研】棉花北疆种植及库存情况调研（一） 第一部分 调研背景 2025/26 年度棉花种植面积继续增加，新年度新疆棉产量如何变化？目前 新疆纺纱产能已经接近 3000 万锭，而目前新疆纺纱产能仍在继续扩大，在目 前这个国际贸易关系逐渐恶化的环境下新疆的纺织企业经营情况如何？此 外，随着近期新疆棉出库速度加快，市场担忧今年在新棉上市前的青黄不接 时期棉花供应可能会偏紧，新疆棉的真实库存情况如何？带着这些问题我们 对北疆地区的轧花厂、纺织企业以及监管库进行了调研。 第二部分 调研路线 乌鲁木齐市—五家渠—石河子—奎屯—精河 第三部分 调研纪要 某轧花厂 A 企业介绍：该企业有一个自有轧花厂，并有 20 多亩自有种植棉田，今年棉花 涨势尚可，目前棉苗高 30-40cm，预计 7、8 月份准备打顶。 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan_qh@ch inastock.com.cn 1 / 3 棉花种植情况：据了解，今年北疆天气情况尚可，按照目前情况来看棉花生长 情况尚可，当地棉花种植面积 ...

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: Cotton Weekly Report: Fast De - stocking, Cotton Prices Slightly Bullish in Fluctuation [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures practice certificate number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting practice certificate number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is influenced by both macro - factors and fundamentals. Considering potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation. The Zhengzhou cotton price also has the potential to be slightly bullish in fluctuation if the current de - stocking speed is maintained [7][14][23] Group 3: International Market Analysis US Cotton Market - The US cotton market is mainly affected by macro - factors. With potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation [7] - As of June 8, the planting rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US was 76%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 4 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The squaring rate was 12%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and the same as the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 7 percentage points lower than last year and 1 percentage point lower than the five - year average [7] - As of the week ending June 5, the weekly signing volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 1.36 million tons, a 45% week - on - week decrease and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 0.82 million tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 5.36 million tons, a 25% week - on - week decrease and a 19% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [7] - As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of the ON - CALL 2507 contract held by sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of the 24/25 annual sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, equivalent to 280,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 51692, equivalent to 1.17 million tons, an increase of 152 from last week [7] Global Cotton Situation - According to the latest USDA June data, the global cotton production in 25/26 was revised down by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. The total consumption was revised down by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's ending inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Analysis Supply Side - As of May, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4587 million tons, at a relatively low level compared to historical data. As of June 6, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.2092 million tons, a decrease of 128,700 tons (3.86%) from last week. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 108,200 tons (4.49%) and that in inland areas decreased by 4,600 tons (1.02%) [14] Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of the end of May, the yarn inventory days in China were 22.34, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89, both at relatively low levels compared to historical data. As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period. The cotton sales situation is relatively fast. As of June 5, the national new cotton sales rate was 88.2%, with a cumulative sales volume of 5.889 million tons, an increase of 163,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 729,400 tons compared to the four - year average [14] Overall Situation - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is affected by macro - factors such as Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries, which bring uncertainties. From the fundamental perspective, if the current de - stocking speed is maintained, the cotton price may be slightly bullish in fluctuation [14] Group 5: Option Strategies - On June 12, 2025, relevant data of several cotton option contracts are provided, including the option contract name, underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [19] - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 10.4973. The position PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 0.9529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.6548. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [21] Group 6: Futures Trading Strategies - The trading logic is similar to the analysis of the Zhengzhou cotton price. The price is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The strategies are as follows: for single - sided trading, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to be bullish in fluctuation; for arbitrage and options, the strategy is to wait and see [23] Group 7: Weekly Data Tracking - The report presents data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton, the price difference between September and January contracts, the operating load of pure - cotton spinning mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn and grey fabric inventory days, cotton inventory (including commercial, industrial, and reserve inventories), and the basis of cotton futures and spot [25][26][28]