Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting outlines the competitive landscape and future prospects of the cotton industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price for cotton (lint cotton, grade three) is 14,654.3 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.66% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.45% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years was in mid-September 2021, reaching 18,088.6 yuan per ton [1] Historical Data - The report includes a statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of cotton (lint cotton, grade three) from 2019 to mid-September 2025 [1]

Report Summary Industry Cotton [1] Date September 30, 2025 [2] Report's Core View - Zhengzhou cotton showed a weak and volatile trend. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,953 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pre - sale prices of new cotton in the 2025/26 season were in the range of 14,650 - 14,900 yuan/ton (gross weight), with some lower prices in the 14,500 - 14,650 yuan/ton range. The pre - sale basis for the same quality was CF01 + 1000 - 1200, and the high - price quotes were 1200 - 1350, with delivery before the end of September and mid - October [7]. - The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders for enterprises, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. Due to the recent decline in cotton prices, the cash flow of enterprises has improved, but the peak season in September was weaker than in previous years. The all - cotton grey fabric market also had a poor performance in September, lacking the characteristics of a peak season in terms of both volume and price. Some factories said that the current demand was mainly for rigid needs, and downstream customers were cautious in stockpiling [8]. - In the overseas market, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was slightly adjusted down, the drought coverage in the cotton - growing areas continued to rise, and the weekly signing data decreased month - on - month. However, due to limited adjustments in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remained at a low level, and the overall market maintained a weak and volatile range. In the domestic market, the lower purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton with a lint percentage of 40% was around 5.9 - 6.1 yuan/kg, and the higher purchase price was still around 6.2 - 6.35 yuan/kg. As new cotton was gradually put on the market, the pre - sale quotes for the near - month of new cotton in the 2025/26 season continued to increase, and the overall quotes were stable with a slight decline compared to last week. The finished product inventory on the demand side was still stable with a slight decline, the market trading volume before the festival decreased, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream demand in the industry was lower than in the same period of previous years. In the short term, the volume of new cotton on the market was limited, and after the festival, it would still operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. Attention should be paid to the changes in the overseas market during the festival [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of CF2601, CF2605, and CF2609 contracts all showed a downward trend. For example, the closing price of CF2601 was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 245,440 and an open interest of 230,258, a decrease of 4,260. The spot price of cotton decreased, and the pre - sale market of new cotton was active [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, the volume of new cotton on the market was limited, but after the festival, it would operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. Attention should be paid to the changes in the overseas market during the festival [8]. 2. Industry News - According to the weekly report of the China Cotton Association, last week, rainfall in most cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang affected the effect of defoliants, resulting in more green leaves remaining in the lower part of cotton plants, which postponed large - scale machine - picking. The cotton harvest has started in the northern Xinjiang region, and partial harvesting has begun in the southern Xinjiang region. However, the moisture content of newly harvested seed cotton is relatively high, and many enterprises have postponed the start of purchasing to ensure the quality of purchases. It is expected that large - scale harvesting will start in the whole region in early October. Last week, the price of lint cotton declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton also decreased accordingly. The price of machine - picked cotton was 6.0 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang was 7.1 - 7.3 yuan/kg, which was lower than that in the early part of the month. The enterprises that have purchased are generally cautious, closely following the market rhythm to control costs and reduce risks [9]. 3. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the Indian rupee, etc. The data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase beyond expectations this year, while ginneries have average enthusiasm for purchasing, and large - scale rush purchases are not expected. Some market expectations put the purchase price around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season this year is expected to be mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [8]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. For arbitrage and options, it is advised to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices decreased, with CF01 closing at 13350, down 55; for棉纱 futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), CY01 closed at 19485, down 65. Trading volumes and open interest also changed. For example, the trading volume of CF01 was 245,440, an increase of 49234, and the open interest was 530,559, a decrease of 4260 [3]. - Spot: The CCIndex3128B price was 14953 yuan/ton, down 90; the Cot A price was 0.00 cents/pound, down 77.70. The prices of other spot products such as polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.1.2 Spreads - Cotton inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 10, down 10; the spread between May and September was - 170, up 10. - Cotton - yarn inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 90, down 19640. - Cross - variety spreads: The spread between CY01 and CF01 was 6135, down 10. - Domestic - foreign spreads: The domestic - foreign cotton spread (1% tariff) was 1092, down 48 [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of September 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 311,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. However, due to the early harvest of dry - land cotton and concentrated precipitation in July and August, the quantity and quality of later - listed cotton may be affected [6]. - As of September 27, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.999 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. The planting areas in major producing areas such as Maharashtra and Gujarat decreased, while that in Telangana increased [7]. - The pre - sale quotes of new cotton in the 2025/26 season continued to increase. The mainstream sales basis of 41 - grade non - lightly spotted polluted double - 29 machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang with impurities within 3.5 was around CF01 + 1100, with higher quotes ranging from 1200 to 1300, for delivery before mid - October [7]. 3.2.2 Cotton Trading Logic - With new cotton gradually entering the acquisition stage, the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton output and the average enthusiasm of ginneries for purchasing lead to the expectation of no large - scale rush purchases. The expected purchase price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the peak season is expected to be mediocre [8]. 3.2.3 Cotton Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [9]. 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - Over the weekend, the trading atmosphere in the pure cotton - yarn market was average, with few new orders for enterprises, and downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Cotton - yarn prices remained stable. As the decline in cotton prices was greater than that in yarn prices, the cash flow of enterprises improved. The peak season in September was mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years, and market confidence was insufficient. - In the all - cotton grey fabric market in September, both volume and price lacked peak - season characteristics. Orders for grey fabric factories were average, with thick - type fabrics being the main products in production. Conventional and high - count orders were few. Export orders were average, with intense competition and extremely low profit margins [11]. 3.3 Options - The implied volatility of CF601C14000.CZC was 13.1%, and its price decreased by 33.6%. The implied volatility of CF601P13600.CZC was 12%, and its price increased by 5.7%. The implied volatility of CF601P13400.CZC was 12.3%, and its price increased by 5.1%. The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day [13]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7310, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.7294. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to wait and see for options [14][15]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the domestic - foreign cotton spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 and CF05, the spread between CY01 and CF01, and the spreads between different delivery months of cotton futures [18][25][26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face pressure to fall back and seek support at 4300 ringgit, with a chance of rebounding later. Domestic palm oil futures may also decline, with an expected correction to the 8800 - 9000 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have little change. The seasonal supply pressure from the US soybean harvest drags down the market. In China, post - holiday demand will weaken, and supply may increase, resulting in a short - term oversupply situation [1]. 2. Pork - In the short - term, the supply and demand of the pork market both increase, with chaotic spot quotes and larger declines in some areas. In the medium - term, demand recovers slowly, and supply is clearly recovering, with weak demand absorption. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, following the spot price with small fluctuations [3]. 3. Corn - In the short - term, the supply of new corn in the market is increasing. The price in the northeast is weak, and the price in the north China is under pressure. The demand side has a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. 4. Meal - US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The basis of domestic meal is supported before the festival. The purchase of Argentine soybeans eases the supply gap to some extent. The near - month increase of soybean meal is weak, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken in the short - term [8]. 5. Sugar - In the short - term, the international raw sugar price is dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. New sugar in China will be on the market soon, putting pressure on the spot market. The domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. 6. Cotton - The supply side has a large hedging pressure after the new cotton is purchased. The demand side has low confidence in the peak season, and the demand is less than in previous years. The domestic cotton price may be under pressure in the short - to - medium term [11]. 7. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. With the approaching of the double festivals, the demand for eggs may increase. Egg prices are expected to oscillate in a bottom - level range [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 26 was 8470 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.36% from September 25. The futures price of Y2601 was 8162 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 was 308 yuan, up 60 yuan or 24.19% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on September 26 was 9230 yuan, up 60 yuan or 0.65%. The futures price of P2601 was 9236 yuan, up 14 yuan or 0.15%. The basis of P2601 was - 6 yuan, up 46 yuan or 88.46% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on September 26 was 10240 yuan, up 200 yuan or 1.99%. The futures price of OI601 was 10162 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.20%. The basis of OI601 was 78 yuan, up 180 yuan or 176.47% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - **Inter - month spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil on September 28 was 236 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 9.92% from September 26; that of palm oil was 184 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 4.17%; that of rapeseed oil was 520 yuan, up 36 yuan or 7.44% [1]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 760 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 4.11%; the 2601 spread was - 1126 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1770 yuan, unchanged; the 2601 spread was 2000 yuan, up 50 yuan or 2.56% [1]. 2. Pork - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract basis was - 45 yuan, up 90 yuan or 66.67%. The price of the live hog 2511 contract was 12575 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan or - 0.87%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13100 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan or - 1.58% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan was 12530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that in Shandong was 12840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [3]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143630, down 11434 or - 7.37%. The weekly white - strip price was 0 yuan, down 19.81 yuan or - 100.00% [3]. 3. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract was 2178 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.60%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 1.30%. The basis was 102 yuan, down 43 yuan or - 29.66% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.24%. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or - 6.98% [5]. 4. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2937 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 3 yuan, unchanged [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2510 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2405 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 105 yuan, unchanged [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or - 0.13%. The price of the 2605 contract was 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.22% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The Nanning basis was 338 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.68%; the Kunming basis was 368 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.37% [10]. 6. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 0.96%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan or - 0.92% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14955 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.27%. The 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1550 yuan, up 90 yuan or 6.16% [11]. 7. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 contract was 3036 yuan/500KG, down 40 yuan or - 1.30%. The price of the 10 contract was 2940 yuan/500KG, down 41 yuan or - 1.38% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan or - 3.76%. The basis was 492 yuan/500KG, down 37 yuan or - 6.98% [14].

Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Report Date - The report date is September 29, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated weakly. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price of the 2025/26 new cotton pre - sale blind box (mainly with double 29 and impurity within 3) was between 14,700 - 15,000 yuan on a legal weight basis, and the pre - sale basis for the same quality was between CF01 + 950 - 1100, with delivery from the end of September to the end of October [7] - In the pure cotton yarn market, the trading was average, sentiment was cautious, spinners and traders lacked confidence, inventory reduction slowed down, and yarn prices were under pressure with large losses. The overall cotton grey fabric market was stable recently. The shipment of low - count regular varieties decreased slightly compared with the previous period and was far behind the same period in previous years. Weaving factories sold at current prices [7] - In the overseas market, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton slightly decreased, the drought coverage in cotton - growing areas continued to rise, and the weekly signing data decreased month - on - month. Due to limited adjustment in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remained low, and the overall market fluctuated weakly within a range. In the domestic market, the low acquisition price of machine - picked seed cotton with 42% lint percentage was about 6 - 6.2 yuan/kg, but the actual trading volume was small. Recently, due to hail and rainfall in some areas of northern Xinjiang, the new cotton acquisition was slow. The market was concerned about the price after the increase in seed cotton acquisition volume during the holiday. On the demand side, the finished product inventory still decreased steadily. Recently, the inventory reduction speed of the grey fabric end was slightly better than that of the cotton yarn end, but the overall demand was lower than the same period in previous years, and the downstream had little confidence in the traditional peak season. In the short term, the supply of new cotton was limited, and it would still operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest after the holiday [8] Operational Suggestions - No operational suggestions were provided in the text Industry News - As of September 23, 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the proportion of cotton - growing areas affected by drought in the United States was 49%, compared with 41% last week and 32% in the same period last year [9] - According to the latest USDA data, as of the week ending September 18, 2025/2026 (unit: 10,000 tons): 1. Sales: The net signing of U.S. cotton was 21,500 tons (month - on - month decrease of 21,900 tons, year - on - year decrease of 5,900 tons). The cumulative signing this year was 946,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 190,000 tons. The cumulative signing volume accounted for 36.2% of the export forecast, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6 percentage points and a decrease of 16.0 percentage points compared with the five - year average. The sales gap was 1.67 million tons, and the average weekly sales required for the remaining period was 37,000 tons. 2. Shipment: The shipment of U.S. cotton was 32,300 tons (month - on - month increase of 4,400 tons, year - on - year increase of 1,800 tons). The cumulative shipment this year was 219,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,300 tons. The shipment progress was 8.4%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points and a decrease of 3 percentage points compared with the five - year average. The shipment gap was 2.39 million tons, and the average weekly shipment required for the remaining period was 53,200 tons [9] Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][20][26][28]

Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are experiencing a slight decline, with the current price at 66.18 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.23% [1] - On September 26, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 66.21 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.35 cents per pound, showing a slight increase of 0.17% [2] - As of September 28, 2025, a total of 107,811 bales of cotton have been inspected and certified, amounting to 24,381 tons, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 1,511.43% [2] Group 2 - The Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported a price of 67.92 cents per pound on September 26, marking an increase of 0.55% from the previous day but a decrease of 5.48% compared to the same period last month [2] - The national cotton processing rate in China was reported at 22.0% as of September 25, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points but an increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to the average of the past four years [2] - The sale of new cotton has not yet commenced, indicating a potential delay in market activity [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton inventory is at a near - four - year low, and the supply - demand outlook for the new US cotton season is expected to improve. US cotton has support but short - term upside is limited. In China, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation and hedging pressure during the new flower listing stage need attention [2] - Sugar: The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazilian sugar supply is strong, and the domestic sugar market has sufficient supply in the short term with downward - driven fundamentals [4][5] - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills' production cut and price increase plans have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the overall supply pressure remains. Domestic supply is loose, and weak demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,030 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton. - US cotton: In the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 1.95 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease; weekly shipments were 3.11 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase [1] Market Analysis - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending inventories. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales. - Domestic: The domestic cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The supply is tight at the end of the year, and demand improves marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation and hedging pressure during the new flower listing stage are concerns [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Cotton prices still have some support before the large - scale listing of new cotton, but there may be a decline during the new cotton listing period. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5485 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous day. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. - Forecast: The 2025/26 global sugar market is expected to have a 2.77 - million - ton supply surplus, with an expected production of 197.5 million tons and consumption of 194.7 million tons [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar supply is strong, and the northern hemisphere has a production increase expectation. - Domestic: The domestic sugar market has sufficient supply in the short term due to high imports and the start of beet sugar production, and the fundamental driving force is downward [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The Zheng sugar price may have limited downside due to cost support and may rebound in the short term, but a bearish view is taken in the medium term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5060 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. - Market: The price of imported wood pulp was mostly stable, with some fluctuations. The price of imported softwood pulp in some regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the price of imported natural pulp in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas softwood pulp mills' production cut and price increase plans boosted market sentiment, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the overall supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port de - stocking was slower than expected. - Demand: Weak demand in Europe, America, and China is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price may continue to fluctuate at a low level due to insufficient fundamental improvement and the pressure of the near - month contract [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].