二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 07 月 27 日 工业硅：基本面仍有支撑，关注上游复产幅度 多晶硅：仍处政策市场，谨慎持仓 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面震荡偏强，现货价格亦上涨；多晶硅盘面大幅上涨，现货报价走高 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面表现偏强，盘中受焦煤价格抬升、多晶硅期货上涨等因素影响有所抬 升，周五收于 9725 元/吨。现货市场价格有所抬升，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 9500 元/吨（环比+800），内 蒙 99 硅报价 9750 元/吨(环比+700)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面大幅上涨，市场交易"反内卷"所带来的政策预期，周五盘面收于 51025 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，下游少部分接受高价成交，后续仍需进一步观察。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存再次去库；多晶硅上游库存有所去化 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存再次去库。据百川统计，本周云南、四川地区开工继续抬升，新疆地区工 厂开工亦有增加，整体周产边际增加。西南地区在盘面上涨后亦有套保动作，保障自身开工，部分企业以铝 厂及出口销路 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market continues to face issues of oversupply and insufficient effective demand in the long - term. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform 2.0 expectations, which have led to a surge in market sentiment. However, there are signs that the short - term exuberant sentiment may fade, and attention should be paid to the risk of a significant price drop when the sentiment wanes. It is also recommended that relevant enterprises seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Production and Price Data**: The weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase but still significantly lower than the same period in 2024, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 46.99%. The price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 44.7 yuan/kg. The DMC output was 45,600 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 15.51% year - on - year. The organic silicon inventory continued to decline week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the production gross profit continued to be in the red, with the loss narrowing significantly. The price of organic silicon rose by 1,600 yuan/ton to 12,450 yuan/ton. From January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%. From January to June, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The industrial silicon inventory was 691,800 tons, a decrease of 280 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline while remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 271,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons week - on - week; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Spot and Futures Data**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 1.27%; the 421 had a discount of 175 yuan/ton to the main contract, with a basis rate of - 1.69% [15]. - **Cost Data**: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it was 9,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Sichuan, it was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - **Supply Data**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,200 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, continuing a slight upward trend. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by 20.48% year - on - year [15]. - **Demand Situation**: Polysilicon production remained at a low level, DMC production was basically stable, and overall demand was still relatively weak [16]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 1.27%; the 421 had a discount of 175 yuan/ton to the main contract, with a basis rate of - 1.69% [21]. 3. Profit and Cost - **Cost Factors**: The average electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased by 0.02 yuan/kWh and 0.04 yuan/kWh respectively week - on - week, and the silicon stone price remained unchanged. The silicon coal price in the main production areas increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week [26][29]. - **Production Cost**: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it was 9,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Sichuan, it was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [29]. 4. Supply and Demand - **Supply - Total Output**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,200 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, continuing a slight upward trend. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by 20.48% year - on - year. In June 2025, the industrial silicon output was 331,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to June decreased by 321,000 tons or 14.74% year - on - year [34]. - **Supply - Main Production Areas Output**: Data on the output of industrial silicon in main production areas such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc. are presented in the form of graphs, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [36][39][42]. - **Demand - Polysilicon**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase but still significantly lower than the same period in 2024. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 46.99%. The price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 44.7 yuan/kg [46]. - **Demand - Organic Silicon**: As of July 25, 2025, the DMC output was 45,600 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 15.51% year - on - year. The organic silicon inventory continued to decline week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the production gross profit continued to be in the red, with the loss narrowing significantly. The price of organic silicon rose by 1,600 yuan/ton to 12,450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Demand - Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 25, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6% [52]. - **Demand - Export**: From January to June, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [55]. 5. Inventory - As of July 25, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 691,800 tons, a decrease of 280 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline while remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 271,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons week - on - week; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons week - on - week [60]. 6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the industrial silicon futures price continued to rebound. During the week, it broke through the upper edge of the flag (or expanding horn pattern) and briefly accelerated upwards, once exceeding 10,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly gain of 1,005 yuan/ton or 11.55%. At the daily - line level, the short - term rebound trend continued, but the upward momentum became looser. Short - term attention should be paid to the price performance at the resistance level around 10,000 yuan/ton, and be wary of the risk of price decline [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On July 24, polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main contract 2509 closing at 53,765 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 5.15%, and the position increasing by 6,923 lots to 173,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 46,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 46,000 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 7,740 yuan/ton. The main contract 2509 of industrial silicon closed at 9,690 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.21%, and the position increasing by 1,498 lots to 336,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,807 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 increased to 9,550 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 45 yuan/ton. Affected by the news of coal mine inspections, industrial silicon also has a cost upward logic support. Currently, the country continues to send a strong signal against cut - throat competition. With multiple positive news in the crystalline silicon market, the bulls are quite confident. Supported by macro - policies, the market is more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI price ratio and the potential upward trend before the implementation of policies. In addition, after the increase in polysilicon margin, it is more difficult to chase the rise, so it is necessary to control positions carefully and be vigilant against high - volatility risks [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research View - Polysilicon prices rose on July 24, with the main contract showing an increase and the position rising. The prices of different types of polysilicon materials also increased, and the spot discount widened. Industrial silicon prices slightly declined, with the position increasing. The spot price remained stable, and the spot discount narrowed. Industrial silicon has cost - rising support, and the market is likely to rise under policy support, but there are risks in chasing the rise of polysilicon [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased slightly. The spot prices of most types of industrial silicon, such as non - oxygenated 553 and 421, increased in some regions, while remaining stable in others. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 210 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 330 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 820 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts increased significantly. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon materials also rose, with the price of N - type granular silicon increasing by 9,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 2,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 1,160 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 240 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil were marked as N/A [3] - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: There are charts showing the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9] - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16] - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22] - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [25][27][34]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月24日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 41.9% | -0.09% | 96.6% | -0.2% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 48.75% | 2.83% | 85.61% | 1.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 1."反内卷"政策释放积极信号，显著提振宏观市场情绪； 2. 成本端短期进一步下行的空间有限，且当前利润估值处于偏低水平，供给端出现停产的概率有所上升； 3. 需求端表现超市场预期，有效带动采购积极性的提升。 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9360 - 9690 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to increase, while the demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and component production. Overall demand is in a continuous recession, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49105 - 51055 [11]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 77,000 tons, a 2.67% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 74,000 tons, a 3.89% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 249,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory is 78,100 tons, at a high level with a production profit of 373 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 71.38%, flat compared to the previous week and higher than the historical average; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 37,200 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2789 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 225 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 547,000 tons, a 0.72% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,050 tons, a 0.60% decrease; major port inventory is 120,000 tons, a 3.22% decrease [6]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 23,000 tons, a 0.87% increase from the previous week. The estimated production schedule for July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 11.1GW, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and inventory was 160,200 tons, an 11.63% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In June, cell production was 56.19GW, a 6.73% decrease from the previous month, and last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 9.94GW, a 37.71% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss state. In June, component production was 46.3GW, a 10.61% decrease from the previous month. The estimated component production for July is 45.45GW, a 1.83% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,010 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 8990 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 23, the price of N - type dense material was 45,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4080 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 9.78% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes above MA20 [12]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [12]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts have decreased, with the 09 contract closing at 9525 yuan/ton, a 1.35% decrease from the previous day [18]. - Spot prices of various types of silicon in East China have generally increased, with the price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon increasing by 3.17% to 9750 yuan/ton [18]. - Social inventory has decreased by 0.73% to 547,000 tons, and sample enterprise inventory has decreased by 0.60% to 173,050 tons [18]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts have increased, with the 09 contract closing at 50,080 yuan/ton, a 1.99% increase from the previous day [21]. - Silicon wafer production has increased by 0.7GW to 12.9GW, and inventory has decreased by 7.5GW to 26.5GW [21]. - Cell external sales factory weekly inventory has decreased by 6.02GW to 9.94GW, a 37.72% decrease [21]. - Component monthly production has decreased by 5.5GW to 46.3GW, and domestic inventory has decreased by 26.54GW to 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease [21]. 3. Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show the historical changes in basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical changes in delivery warehouse, port inventory, and sample enterprise inventory [26]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical changes in sample enterprise weekly production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise operating rate [30]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical changes in power prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in major production areas [35]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample area trends show the historical changes in cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the historical changes in supply, demand, and balance of industrial silicon [39][42]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - DMC price and production trends show the historical changes in DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, production, and price [45]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - downstream price trends show the historical changes in the prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - import - export and inventory trends show the historical changes in DMC import, export, and inventory [50]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - price and supply trends show the historical changes in waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, aluminum scrap import, un - forged aluminum alloy import - export, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost and profit [53]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - inventory and production trends show the historical changes in the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [56]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - demand (automobile and wheel hub) shows the historical changes in automobile monthly production and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [58]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - fundamental trends show the historical changes in polysilicon industry cost, price, inventory, production, operating rate, and demand [63]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - supply - demand balance sheet shows the historical changes in polysilicon supply, demand, and balance [66]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - silicon wafer trends show the historical changes in silicon wafer price, production, inventory, demand, and net export [69]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - cell trends show the historical changes in cell price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export [72]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic component trends show the historical changes in component price, inventory, production, and export [75]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic accessory trends show the historical changes in photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass production and export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [78]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component component cost - profit trends (210mm) show the historical changes in the silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost, and profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [81].

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the market sentiment declined, and soda ash prices followed suit. Coal production cuts boosted market bullish sentiment, and the market has expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall macro - market sentiment is warm, and the stock market and commodities are rebounding. However, soda ash still has an obvious oversupply situation, and glass also faces over - capacity issues. Both markets need to track the implementation of relevant policies [1]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - **Glass**:华北报价 rose 0.83% to 1210 yuan/ton,华东报价 rose 0.80% to 1260 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 2.63% to 1170 yuan/ton, and华南报价 remained unchanged at 1290 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 fell 2.21% to 1372 yuan/ton, and glass 2509 fell 3.04% to 1211 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 20.20% [1]. - **Soda Ash**:华东报价 rose 4.07% to 1280 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 4.17% to 1250 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 fell 1.63% to 1452 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2509 fell 2.51% to 1338 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 19.05% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate increased by 3.42% to 84.10%, and weekly output increased by 3.41% to 73.32 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.38% to 15.78 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 2.70% to 91840 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 3.22% to 6493.90 million cubic meters. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.26% to 190.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 3.61% to 24.66 million tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days increased by 11.34% to 23.4 days [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73%, construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%, completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%, and sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and log futures rose significantly last week. Currently, log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down spot prices. In the context of strong expectations, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, log supply, and inventory. Buying on dips can be considered [2]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - Log 2507 fell 1.79% to 818 yuan/cubic meter, log 2509 fell 1.90% to 823 yuan/cubic meter, log 2511 fell 2.05% to 826 yuan/cubic meter, and log 2601 fell to 835.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.5 to - 3 yuan/cubic meter, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5 to - 12.5 yuan/cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand - Last week, inventory started to accumulate, increasing by 7 million cubic meters. As of July 18, the total national coniferous log inventory was 329 million cubic meters. Demand increased by 0.36 million cubic meters last week. As of July 18, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.24 million cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Polysilicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The current futures price has reached the previous expectation, and the arbitrage window is open. The upstream enterprises have hedging needs. With the approaching of the delivery month, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management. Whether the price will rise further in the long - term depends on the smoothness of the price transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation [3]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - N - type granular silicon average price rose 2.33% to 44000 yuan/ton, N - type material basis decreased by 31.40% to - 4080 yuan/ton. PS2506 rose 1.99% to 50080 yuan/ton, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.48% to 11.10 GM, and weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.88% to 2.30 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons, and silicon wafer production increased by 1.34% to 58.84 GW [3]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 9.78% to 24.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 11.64% to 16.02 GM [3]. Report 4: Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Driven by the coking coal futures, industrial silicon futures opened higher but then followed the decline of polysilicon and coking coal futures. The industry profit has been repaired, and the arbitrage window is open. However, the fundamental demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to the inventory pressure. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price of industrial silicon will also decline, and buying put options can be considered [4]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon rose 3.09% to 10000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 955.56% to 475 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed, with 2508 - 2509 rising 20.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 million tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% to 20.93 million tons, and polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons [4]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 54.70 million tons, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.11% to 25.05 million tons [4]. Report 5: Natural Rubber Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and typhoons in Hainan, the supply is disrupted, and rubber prices are rebounding. The overall demand is stable, and the terminal demand increment is limited. Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather improves in the main producing areas [6]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged at 14950 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 50.00% to - 55 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.66% to - 750 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In May, Thailand's production increased by 157.52% to 272.20 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 67.02% to 97.00 thousand tons. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased by 3.07% to 75.99%, and the start - up rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.54% to 65.10% [6]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory increased by 0.63% to 636383 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.82% to 36691 tons [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks [8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, with positive macro - factors, improved supply - demand fundamentals, and price increases in downstream products, the industrial silicon price has room for further growth if it is benchmarked against the full cost [3]. - For polysilicon, after the continuous increase in spot prices, they have stabilized. The futures price is above the full cost of most enterprises, and there may be room for growth if considering the recovery of storage, merger, and acquisition funds. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [8]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit the daily limit. The main contract 2509 opened at 9345 yuan/ton and closed at 9655 yuan/ton, a change of 5.98% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 380961 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50053 lots, a decrease of 88 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), and the price of 421 silicon was 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Consumption Side**: Affected by the strong drive of industrial silicon on the cost side and the supply concerns caused by an incident at a Shandong organic silicon factory, the prices of organic silicon products increased across the board. For example, the market price of DMC rose to 11600 - 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1200 yuan/ton [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures hit the daily limit, opening at 45880 yuan/ton and closing at 49105 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 8.99% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 192179 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 757482 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.90 (a month - on - month change of - 9.78%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.70%) [6]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [8][9] Influencing Factors Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production and new capacity in the Northwest and Southwest regions [5] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [5] - Policy disturbances [5] - Macro and capital sentiment [5] - The start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5] Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - regulation on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises [9] - The driving effect of futures listing on the spot market [9] - The impact of capital sentiment [9] - Policy disturbances [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] - Polysilicon: Short - term range trading for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Long - term recommended to buy on dips [7] 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand pattern has improved recently. With the impact of anti - involution policies, rising prices of coking coal, and potential electricity price hikes in the northwest, the industrial silicon futures market is expected to be bullish [3] - Polysilicon: There are many policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry. The market is volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to risk management. Long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout on dips [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan/ton (4.99%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 383,296 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,141 lots, a decrease of 252 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton), and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton) [1] - In June 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume was 340,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume in June was negligible, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 5,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62% [2] - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,700 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon monomer enterprises closed their DMC quotes. The price is expected to rise due to enterprise closures and sudden supply - side production cuts. Some monomer production capacities in North China and Zhejiang are expected to resume production, while some in Shandong are temporarily shut down [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 45,280 yuan/ton and closing at 45,660 yuan/ton, a 3.36% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 172,057 lots (155,539 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 621,314 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 43.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 24.90 (a month - on - month decrease of 9.78%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02GW (a month - on - month decrease of 5.70%). The weekly polysilicon production was 23,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.00%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.10GW (a month - on - month decrease of 3.37%) [6] - Silicon wafer prices: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.10 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.45 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece) [6] - Battery cell prices: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None. Long - term recommended to buy on dips [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 21, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 9,260 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.99%, and the position decreased by 3,956 lots to 383,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,297 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 185 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main 2509 contract closing at 45,850 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.36%, and the position increased by 16,518 lots to 172,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon refeed material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 385 yuan/ton [2]. - Large industrial silicon manufacturers have not yet resumed production. The increase in the southwest is less than the decrease in the northwest. After the cancellation of the electricity price subsidy in Xinjiang, the cost support strengthening and the resumption of production expectation have entered a game, returning to the range - oscillation mode, with the upper limit being the position where the capacity enters the market after the profit in the southwest is repaired. The photovoltaic industry chain is boosted by the anti - involution policy, but there is no actual improvement in supply and demand. The bulls trade on the confidence that if the spot price does not fall, the futures price will not fall, and the overall support of the disk is relatively strong. After both industrial silicon and polysilicon rose to high levels, large - scale hedging positions entered the market, and there were cases where polysilicon long positions left the market with profits. The margin of polysilicon has been increased, further increasing the difficulty of chasing the rise. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI ratio and the policy implementation rhythm to see if there will be a new wave of upward pull after the callback [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,820 yuan/ton on July 18 to 9,110 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 290 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot also generally increased, with the current lowest deliverable price rising from 8,750 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 90 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 43,850 yuan/ton on July 18 to 45,660 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P - type polysilicon dense material and refeed material also increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 350 yuan/ton to - 385 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 800 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,500 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 252, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][17] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][23] 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][35] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and new energy industry chain tracking [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with supply increasing, demand remaining weak, and cost support weakening in the flood season. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9115 - 9405 for the 2509 contract [6]. - The polysilicon market has a continuous increase in supply scheduling and a continuous decline in demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 44830 - 46490 for the 2509 contract [8][9][11]. - The main logic for the industrial silicon market is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main risk points include the impact of production suspension/overhaul plans, and the inventory clearance and resumption trends of polysilicon [16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 77,000 tons, a 2.67% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, a 3.89% decrease from the previous week. The demand remained weak. The inventories of polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingots were all at high levels [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,789 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the flood season [6]. - **Basis**: On July 21, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 10 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 547,000 tons, a 0.72% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 173,050 tons, a 0.60% decrease; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, a 3.22% decrease [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, the demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased slightly. The industrial silicon 2509 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 9115 - 9405 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a 0.87% increase from the previous week. The scheduled output for July was predicted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.1 GW, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 160,200 tons, an 11.63% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The July scheduled output was 52.2 GW, a 11.28% decrease from the previous month. The production of battery cells and components also showed a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 35,370 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 10,630 yuan/ton [10]. - **Basis**: On July 21, the price of N - type polysilicon was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 340 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a 9.78% decrease from the previous week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [13]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [11]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling continued to increase, while the demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continued to decline. The polysilicon 2509 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 44830 - 46490 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The futures closing prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with the 08 contract having the largest increase of 6.39%. The spot prices of different types of silicon also showed varying degrees of increase or remained stable [19]. - The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 547,000 tons, and the inventories of sample enterprises and main ports also decreased [19]. - The weekly production of sample enterprises increased by 4.93% to 30,420 tons, and the production and start - up rates of different regions showed different trends [19]. Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable. The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and the inventory decreased by 22.06% to 265,000 tons [21]. - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery外销 factories decreased by 37.72% to 9.94 GW, and the monthly output decreased by 6.74% to 56.19 GW [21]. - The monthly output of components decreased by 10.62% to 46.3 GW, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [21]. 3.3 Trend Analysis of Industrial Silicon - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon, reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures and different product specifications [23]. - **Inventory**: The historical trends of the inventories of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises are presented, showing the changes in inventory levels over time [26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The historical trends of the production and capacity utilization rates of industrial silicon in different regions and by different specifications are shown, reflecting the changes in production capacity and utilization [31]. - **Component Cost**: The historical trends of the costs of main components such as electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and reducing agent prices in the production of industrial silicon are presented, showing the cost structure and changes [36]. - **Cost - Sample Region**: The historical trends of the costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are shown, reflecting the cost - profit situation in different regions [38]. - **Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations over different time periods [40][43]. 3.4 Downstream Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production**: The historical trends of the price, production, capacity utilization, cost, and profit of DMC are presented, showing the production and operation situation of the DMC market [46]. - **Downstream Price**: The historical trends of the prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are shown, reflecting the price changes in the downstream market [48]. - **Import - Export and Inventory**: The historical trends of the import, export, and inventory of DMC are presented, showing the international trade and inventory situations of the DMC market [50]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: The historical trends of the prices, supply, and import - export situations of aluminum alloy are presented, including the prices of waste aluminum, aluminum alloy ingots, and the import volume of aluminum scrap [53]. - **Inventory and Production**: The historical trends of the inventories, production, and start - up rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots are shown, reflecting the production and inventory situations of the aluminum alloy market [56]. - **Demand (Automobile and Wheel Hub)**: The historical trends of the production, sales, and export of automobiles and aluminum alloy wheel hubs are presented, showing the demand situation in the downstream market [58]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The historical trends of the cost, price, inventory, production, start - up rate, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon are presented, showing the overall situation of the polysilicon market [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The historical trends of the price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers are shown, reflecting the production and market situation of the silicon wafer market [69]. - **Battery Cell**: The historical trends of the price, production, inventory, start - up rate, and export of battery cells are presented, showing the production and market situation of the battery cell market [72]. - **Photovoltaic Component**: The historical trends of the price, production, inventory, export, and cost - profit of photovoltaic components are shown, reflecting the production and market situation of the photovoltaic component market [75]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory**: The historical trends of the prices, import - export volumes, and production volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and welding tape are presented, showing the market situation of the photovoltaic accessory market [78]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The historical trends of the costs and profits of the components of 210mm photovoltaic components, including silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are shown, reflecting the cost - profit structure of the component market [81]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation**: The historical trends of the new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations are presented, showing the development situation of the photovoltaic power generation market [83].