电力设备新能源 2H25 展望 20250613 摘要 锂电产业链排产超预期，国内重卡商用车上半年同比增长约 190%，乘 用车终端需求韧性增强，欧洲市场恢复超预期增长超 20%，新能源车出 口强劲，对锂电总需求形成支撑。 储能行业 2025 年下半年发展积极，国内独立储能需求快速增长，海外 市场美国发货恢复，非美地区需求高涨，头部电池厂储能排产饱和，美 国大而美法案落地支撑储能需求。 美国大而美法案延续储能补贴至 2033 年，限制外国敏感实体材料援助 比例，取消技术授权上限，有望推动主链估值修复，加速锂电板块北塔 修复。 电池环节公司二季度业绩环比向上，头部厂商经营性业绩良好，已获美 国储能和动力订单及技术授权，东南亚产能逐步释放，美国市场逻辑增 强。 零部件环节中报业绩预期强劲，中熔电气二季度利润超预期，受行业景 气度及高盈利产品放量影响，激励熔断器有望应用于新能源车领域，并 拓展海外市场。 Q&A 2025 年下半年锂电板块的市场预期和实际情况如何？ 当前锂电板块的市场预期与实际情况存在显著反差。尽管受国家补贴退坡及 136 号文取消新能源强制配储影响，市场对三季度国内需求预期较弱，认为七 八月份锂电 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Mining (001203.SZ) has experienced significant stock price volatility due to the announcement of lithium reserves in Hunan Province, with a 9.44% increase from July 9 to July 11, closing at 10.78 yuan per share [2] Group 1: Lithium Resource Discovery - The Hunan Provincial Department of Natural Resources announced the discovery of a large lithium deposit in the Jijiao Mountain area, with proven reserves of 490 million tons of lithium ore and 131.35 thousand tons of lithium oxide, equivalent to approximately 324.43 thousand tons of lithium carbonate [2][4] - Dazhong Mining has invested 2.09 billion yuan to acquire exploration rights for the Jijiao Mountain lithium mine, which is expected to yield significant returns once production begins [2][4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Dazhong Mining has invested a total of 4.4 billion yuan in lithium mining projects, including the Jijiao Mountain and Sichuan Gada lithium mines, as part of its strategy to mitigate risks associated with the cyclical nature of the iron ore industry [5][6] - The company aims to achieve a "dual-drive" strategy with both iron and lithium mining, focusing on the rapid development of its lithium projects [6] Group 3: Project Development Timeline - The Jijiao Mountain lithium mine is expected to receive mining permits more quickly than the Sichuan Gada mine, with construction of the first phase of the project anticipated to be completed by 2026 [6] - Dazhong Mining has completed site preparation for the beneficiation project and has submitted applications for mining rights, with a decision expected within 40 days [6] Group 4: Competitive Positioning - While Dazhong Mining's lithium reserves are not as extensive as those of leading companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, it still holds a competitive position in the market with a total of 472.85 thousand tons of proven lithium resources [7][5] - The company is developing new technologies to enhance lithium extraction efficiency and reduce costs, which could improve its competitive edge in the lithium market [10][9]

胜率角度，结合中报评估后续景气。胜率方向，7月以来中报披露高增或超预期方向市场均给予及时反 馈，继续关注部分蓝筹白马龙头超预期背后体现的行业整体性改善预期，如船舶、CXO、半导体设 备、养殖、风电设备、军工电子、海外算力等。中期来看，工程师红利释放与自主可控依然是中期趋 势，关注半导体/国产算力与创新药等成长方向，等待产业催化。 "大美丽"法案落地后，特朗普发起新一轮关税冲击。特朗普发起新一轮关税政策冲击，对全球市场与美 联储降息节奏带来新的不确定性。另外近期特朗普宣称与越南达成贸易协议，对相关转口商品加征40% 关税，也值得注意，这可能为其他东南亚国家也制定了协定模板，对相关转口贸易带来较大影响。 结构选择：赔率角度，当高低切遇上反内卷。从行业轮动看，近期市场高低切换明显，"反内卷"进一步 强化了"高低切"趋势，低位布局，等待胜率催化这一策略持续有效。可关注3月20日以来涨幅相对靠 后，且可能受益"反内卷"的细分行业，如锂电池、乘用车、钢铁、建材等。 智通财经APP获悉，东方财富策略陈果团队发布研究报告称，上周上证指数收盘站上3500点，市场流动 性与范式和14-15年疯牛存在一定差异，中期大概率维持震荡慢 ...

从应用领域看，今年上半年，批准建立环境监测领域标准物质202项，占比38.6%，同比增长69.7%；制 造业及石化产业领域标准物质150项，占比28.6%，同比增长108.3%；食品与农产品安全检测领域标准 物质134项，占比25.6%，同比增长78.6%；医疗卫生领域标准物质38项，占比7.2%，同比增长40.7%。 各领域标准物质新建数量均有明显增长，其中制造业领域标准物质增幅最大，新建的石墨物理特性系列 标准物质，包括比表面积、粒度分布、振实密度、磁性物质4类，为锂电池制造企业提供了精准可靠的 检测"标尺"，有力支撑原材料质量控制和生产工艺优化。 记者从市场监管总局获悉：今年上半年，我国新批准建立国家标准物质524项，同比增长78.8%，涉及 研制单位51家。其中，国家一级标准物质31项，占比5.9%，同比增长47.6%；国家二级标准物质493 项，占比94.1%，同比增长81.3%。 标准物质是开展化学、生物等检测活动必不可少的"标尺"和"砝码"，是国家计量能力建设的关键要素。 比如，上半年新批准发布的EGFR（表皮生长因子受体）基因突变基因组DNA标准物质，能够显著改善 非小细胞肺癌靶向治疗的伴随诊 ...

资本的流动，不仅预示着产业方向与发展潜力，更是企业领导地位与资本影响力最直观，且最强 力的注释。 在过去的20多年，中国锂电产业世景变迁幅度之大往往让人恍若隔世。 20多年前，日本人断定缺少专业设备的中国厂商造不了锂电池，彼时全球90%的锂电市场份额近 乎被日韩等外资企业垄断；但二十多年后的今天，我国已在全球锂电多个核心供应链占据优势地 位，比如中国锂电池出货量已占据全球73.7%的市场份额，其中储能电池出货量占全球比例达 87%；正/负极材料出货量约占全球市场份额的90%，电解液出货量全球占比超85%，锂电隔膜占 据全球超80%市场份额等等。 伴随着中国锂电产业的全面崛起，资本市场也掀起了一场又一场造富神话，原本一个个 "小而美" 的锂电细分领域诞生了众多千亿市值巨头，最巅峰期，中国锂电上市公司总市值突破至5.8万亿元 人民币，千亿以上市值企业多达12家。 但在持续 "周期熊" 冲击下，目前中国锂电上市企业总市值已较巅峰期 （2021年12月） 减少约 2.91万亿元，降幅达53.31%，远超同期上证指数5.99%跌幅。 但是，中国锂电激荡的二十年间，已历经多次产业与经济周期的洗礼，有些人始终屹立潮头。 据 ...

近日，深圳市高工产业研究有限公司(以下简称"GGII")发布相关数据显示，2025年全球电力储能、乘用 车、eVTOL(电动垂直起降飞行器)、机器人等细分场景锂电池出货量预计超1.8TWh(万亿瓦时)，到2035 年，全球电池需求将突破8TWh。 日前，宁波容百新能源科技股份有限公司(以下简称"容百科技")中央研究院冯道言博士表示："全固态电 池作为下一代电池技术，凭借高安全性、高能量密度、长循环寿命与宽温域应用等显著优势，在电动飞 机、eVTOL及动力电池等领域拥有广泛应用空间，市场前景广阔，有望成为推动相关产业发展的关键 力量。" 据悉，目前容百科技已经开发出适配于硫化物全固态电池的8系正极和9系正极，成本与现有材料体系相 当，性能表现优异，均达到行业领先水平。同时，8系单晶固态正极材料S83L在2024年实现吨级出货。 主机厂在固态电池领域也动作频频。不少业内人士认为，无论动力还是储能，未来绝大多数头部主机厂 都将设立固态电池专项团队，在验证期内抢占先机。这也意味着传统隔膜企业、液态电池体系材料商若 不能顺利切换技术路径，极可能在下轮技术周期中被边缘化。 在此背景下，不少产业链龙头公司正加速提升自身电池 ...

风险提示：房地产走势不确定性仍存；政策力度不及预期。 "破局"通胀：反内卷与扩内需 [Table_Authors] 2025 年 6 月物价数据点评 本报告导读： 今年以来，"以旧换新"补贴政策持续支撑耐用消费品价格，带动核心 CPI 同比小幅 修复，而其中服务价格方面仍有待提振，指向了居民部门资产负债表的修复进展有 限，需要后续稳增长政策接续。 投资要点： 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 专 题 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.09 2025-07-13 [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比转正。食品价格拖累减弱；国际油价上涨输入带动能 源价格；核心 CPI 环比持平，核心消费品 CPI 环比表现显著好于 2023、 2024 年，"618"提前促销影响过去后，"以旧换新"政策支持的相关品 类价格仍相对偏强，而服务相关价格继续稳中偏弱。 6 月 PPI 同比跌幅继续扩张，一是受高温降雨天气影响，房地产、基 建项目施工进度有所放缓。二是"反内卷"具体政策和效果仍待观察， 尤其是对光伏、水泥、钢铁等行业实际供需格局的影响。三 ...

2025 年 07 月 13 日 市场轮动北证蓄力，持续关注北交 所核心资产 ——北交所策略周报（20250707-2025713） 本周策略观点： 本周市场行情： 北交所新股： 新三板动态： ⚫ 本周新挂牌 6 家，摘牌 2 家，周新增计划融资 0.00 亿元，完成融资 0.65 亿元。 风险提示： ⚫ 个股业绩季度波动过大风险，宏观经济波动的风险。 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 研究支持 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230123090006 wangbh@swsresearch.com 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 郑菁华 (8621)23297818× zhengjh@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 新 三 板 研 究 专 题 研 究 - 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper by the U.S., which is expected to take effect in late July or early August. This has led to a significant increase in U.S. copper prices while London and Shanghai copper prices have declined [5][9]. - The report anticipates that global copper inventory transfers will conclude, providing some support for copper prices despite the short-term pressure from tariffs. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate between 77,000 and 79,000 CNY per ton in the near term [5]. - The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels, with aluminum prices experiencing high volatility. The report notes a slight increase in alumina prices and a decrease in aluminum production margins [5][26]. - Lithium prices are rebounding from the bottom, driven by a "reverse involution" trend, with expectations for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][78]. - Cobalt prices may rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [5][88]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims, and the announcement of copper tariffs by the U.S. government [9]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices fell by 2.43%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.63%. U.S. copper prices increased by 10.30%. Inventory levels showed a mixed trend, with London copper inventory rising by 14.12% and Shanghai copper inventory declining by 3.70% [26]. 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.08%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 0.36%. Inventory levels for both London and Shanghai aluminum increased, while production margins decreased [26][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices decreased, while zinc prices saw a slight increase. Inventory levels for lead and zinc showed mixed trends, with lead inventory declining and zinc inventory increasing [49]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices fell, and nickel prices also experienced a decline. Inventory levels for both metals showed a downward trend [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices, including lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene, saw increases, while hydroxide prices slightly decreased. The report notes ongoing challenges in production margins for lithium [78]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, but the extended export ban from the DRC may create opportunities for price rebounds in the future [88].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "anti-involution" policies in China aim to construct a unified national market, improve product quality, and promote high-quality economic development, with a focus on addressing low-price and disorderly competition [1] Market Performance - Since the announcement of "anti-involution" policies on July 1, the Shenyin Wanguo Glass Fiber sector has seen a cumulative increase of 14.2%, while the Shenyin Wanguo Steel and Photovoltaic Equipment sectors have risen by 11.36% and 9.73% respectively [1] Economic Implications - Comprehensive governance of "involution" is expected to enhance overall productivity by correcting low-price competition and overcapacity, thereby preventing "bad money from driving out good" [7] - The policies are anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation and improve corporate profit expectations, particularly in sectors like steel and cement [7][8] - The construction of a unified market is expected to reduce cross-regional transaction costs and stimulate domestic demand [7] Capital Market Impact - The governance of "involution" is likely to lead to the accelerated exit of outdated capacities, enhancing the market share and pricing power of leading companies, thus stabilizing profitability [8] - The "anti-involution" trend is seen as a long-term process that will create systematic investment opportunities as industry concentration increases [10] Sectoral Opportunities - Industries such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, steel, and cement are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies [12] - In the photovoltaic supply chain, leading companies in silicon materials and glass are likely to benefit from price stabilization and capacity exit [12] - Traditional industries like steel and cement may see improved profitability through production limits and price stabilization [12][13] Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with real capacity exits and technological upgrades, avoiding speculative investments in companies without actual production cuts [13] - Key areas for investment include supply-demand optimization in steel and cement, technology barriers in photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors, and cost advantages in industries like pig farming [12][13]