Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in both new housing sales and investment, but there are signs of stabilization in the second-hand housing market, suggesting a potential recovery in 2026 [3][4][5]. Sales Data - In 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% - The sales revenue of commercial housing was 83,937 billion yuan, down 12.6% from the previous year [3]. Investment Data - The funds received by real estate development enterprises amounted to 93,117 billion yuan, a decline of 13.4% year-on-year, with personal mortgage loans decreasing by 17.8% [3]. Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is showing a notable recovery, with a 9% week-on-week increase in transaction volume in key cities during the third week of 2026 [4]. - The price of new homes showed signs of stabilization, with six cities reporting a month-on-month increase in December 2025 [5]. Policy Changes - New policies introduced in December 2025 aimed to optimize real estate regulations, including relaxed purchasing conditions for non-local families and support for multi-child households [6]. - The reduction of the real estate value-added tax is expected to lower transaction costs by 3%-5%, enhancing the liquidity of second-hand homes [7]. Future Predictions - The real estate market is expected to see continued policy easing in 2026, with potential subsidies and incentives for home purchases in cities with high inventory [8]. - The decline in housing prices is anticipated to slow down, with core cities likely to stabilize first due to population inflow and resource advantages [9].

Group 1 - Swire Properties (01972.HK) experienced a nearly 3% increase in stock price, currently up 2.5% at HKD 23.8 [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 15.33 million [1]

【内容摘要】 1 月 30 日，资金面整体均衡平稳；债市偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体下跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》】 2 月 1 日出版的第 3 期《求是》杂志发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展 之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，建设金融强国，必须加快构建中国特色现代金融体系。一 是科学稳健的金融调控体系，二是结构合理的金融市场体系，三是分工协作的金融机构体系， 四是完备有效的金融监管体系，五是多样化专业性的金融产品和服务体系，六是自主可控、安 全高效的金融基础设施体系。 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%；资金面整体均衡平稳，债市偏强震荡 （三）大宗商品 【国际原油期货价格转跌，国际天然气价格转涨】1 月 30 日，WTI 3 月原油期货收跌 0.32%， 报 65.21 美元/桶；布伦特 3 月原油期货收跌 0.03%，报 70.69 美元/桶；COMEX 黄金期货下跌 8.88%，报 4846.20 美元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shenzhen Real Estate (Deepin Real Estate A) has shown significant fluctuations, with a recent increase in share price and substantial growth in revenue and net profit year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the company's financial performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 3, Deepin Real Estate A's stock price increased by 2.06%, reaching 22.82 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.72 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 230.86 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 3.63%, with a 13.42% increase over the last five trading days, while it has decreased by 19.36% over the past 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Deepin Real Estate A reported a revenue of 899 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 331.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 145 million CNY, which is a remarkable increase of 2791.57% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's listing amount to 1.181 billion CNY, with 61.71 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Deepin Real Estate A increased to 38,400, reflecting a growth of 5.69% [2]. - The fourth largest shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 6.9351 million shares, an increase of 1.8974 million shares compared to the previous period [3].

Group 1: Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of combining short-term and long-term strategies to effectively promote development and improve people's livelihoods during his research in Shandong [2] - The Central Committee and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)", which aims to enhance the capital's functions and promote high-quality regional development [2] Group 2: International News - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January in the U.S. rose significantly from 47.9 to 52.6, surpassing expectations of 48.5, indicating robust growth in new orders and production [5] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and India was reached, reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, with India agreeing to lower its tariffs on U.S. products [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 4.71% to $62.14 per barrel and Brent crude down 4.36% to $66.30 per barrel [7] Group 4: Financial Market - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 750 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan due to 1,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [8] - The money market remained stable, with the DR001 rate rising by 3.65 basis points to 1.364% and the DR007 rate falling by 10.2 basis points to 1.491% [9] Group 5: Bond Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.8150% [9] - In the credit bond market, significant price deviations were noted, with "H0 Zhongjun 02" dropping over 72% and "H1 Bidi 03" dropping over 56% [11] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices falling by 2.39% to 2.31%, and a total trading volume of 850.83 billion yuan, down 81.89 billion yuan from the previous trading day [14]

政策层面的持续发力，是本轮市场情绪改善的重要基础。近期各地在稳楼市方面的表态更加明确，因城施策力度不断加大，核心城市在购房限制、信贷支 持、存量房消化等方面的政策工具逐步丰富。这些举措虽然难以在短期内迅速拉动销售大幅反弹，但对于稳定市场预期、改善房企现金流具有重要意义。尤 其是在融资端，房地产企业外部环境较此前明显改善，市场对系统性风险的担忧明显下降。和众汇富认为，政策目标已从单纯压降风险，转向在防风险基础 上推动行业平稳运行。 港股房地产板块的同步走强，也为市场提供了重要参照。相比A股，港股地产股此前调整幅度更深，估值长期处于历史低位。近期在全球风险偏好回暖及内 地房地产政策预期改善的共同推动下，港股地产板块出现集中反弹。这一变化不仅反映国际资金对中国房地产市场的预期边际改善，也体现出市场对行业长 期价值的重新评估。和众汇富研究发现，部分具备资产质量和现金流优势的房企，已开始获得中长期资金的关注。 值得注意的是，本轮反弹并不意味着行业已经进入全面复苏阶段。从供需结构看，房地产市场仍面临明显分化。一线及部分强二线城市，因人口吸引力和产 业支撑较强，需求韧性相对突出，而部分三四线城市仍受到库存和人口流出等因素制 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant number of companies facing delisting risks due to poor financial performance, with only 24% of ST stocks showing positive results [1][2] - A total of 178 ST stocks were analyzed, with 118 continuing to incur losses, indicating a concerning trend in the market [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance of ST Stocks - Among the 178 ST stocks, 118 reported continued losses, while only 33 managed to turn a profit, and 12 reported first-time losses [2] - The largest projected loss comes from ST Chenming, with an estimated loss of 8.2 billion to 8.8 billion yuan, marking its third consecutive year of losses totaling 16.9 billion yuan [2][3] - ST Keli Da expects a net loss of 160 million to 200 million yuan for 2025, a drastic decline of 1964.13% to 2430.16% compared to the previous year [3] Group 2: Delisting Risks - Several companies, including ST Yanshi and ST Jinglun, have triggered financial delisting indicators, with ST Yanshi expected to have an operating income below 300 million yuan for 2025 [4] - ST Jinglun anticipates a negative net profit for 2025, with its stock facing potential delisting risks due to financial performance [4][5] - Audit firms have indicated that some ST stocks may receive non-standard audit opinions, further increasing delisting risks [4] Group 3: Recovery Efforts - Some ST stocks are attempting to recover through restructuring and asset sales, with ST Jinke projecting a turnaround with a net profit of 30 billion to 35 billion yuan for 2025 after completing a restructuring plan [6] - ST Songfa expects a net profit of 2.4 billion to 2.7 billion yuan for 2025, following a significant asset restructuring that shifted its business focus [6][7] - ST Weir has also seen positive impacts on its performance through strategic asset acquisitions and divestitures, projecting a net profit of 19 million to 22 million yuan [7]

Group 1: Domestic Policy - The unified market policy will become an important policy line for 2026 and the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need to deepen and transcend "involution" [1][5][6] - The focus will be on governance of local government behavior and related reform measures, covering areas such as anti-monopoly, local government investment attraction, and tax system reform [5][6][27] - The policy's impact will extend from industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles to electricity, transportation, technology, and data [5][6] Group 2: Company Analysis - Yum China (09987.HK) - The Western fast food market is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 10.3%, led by the hamburger segment, which holds a 70.6% market share [8][9] - Yum China maintains a strong market position with a 27.5% share, and the market concentration is high, with the top five companies accounting for 44% of the market [8][9] - The company has a large store network with a low closure rate, reaching 17,514 stores by Q3 2025, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2014 to 2024 [9] - The company has a strong local innovation capability, with 5.75 million members contributing to 57% of sales, and maintains healthy profit margins of 18.5% for KFC and 13.4% for Pizza Hut [9][10] - The company is expected to generate revenues of $11.7 billion, $12.4 billion, and $13.1 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of $900 million, $1 billion, and $1.1 billion respectively, leading to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 18, and 16 times [8][10] Group 3: Real Estate Industry - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 24.7% year-on-year decline in sales, although the decline was less severe than in previous months [18][20] - The sales area also decreased by 29.5% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in the market [18][20] - The top three companies in the industry achieved a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while other segments experienced significant declines [18][20] - Companies focused on first and second-tier cities showed a smaller decline in sales compared to those in lower-tier cities, with a difference of approximately 11% [19][20] - Recommendations include focusing on second-hand housing intermediaries like Beike and quality state-owned enterprises such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [20]

2026年第4周（1.26-2.1），本周房地产领域中央层面的动向有两方面值得重点关注： 一是监管端出现边际调整， 部分出险房企不再被监管部门要求每 月上报"三条红线"指标； 二是发展产业联动房地产去库存， 本周出台的支持养老产业发展的相关措施、培育服务消费新增长点的工作方案，均提及通过 发展相关产业助力房地产行业去库存。 地方层面， 优化公积金成为本周地方发力重点， 共有8地出台了相关稳市场政策，典型如天津将公积金贷款额度上限从120万元提升至144万元，多孩家 庭首套房可获得最高贷款额度。 多地积极落实中央下调商业用房首付的政策， 将商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例下调至30%，吉林、山东、甘肃、西 藏等省份均明确发文落实这一新规。 | 日期 | 部委/省市 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | １月 28 日 | 监管部门 | 多家房企:目前已不被监管部门要求每月上报"三条红线"指标 | | １月 28 日 | 三部委 | 深化自然资源要素保障支持养老服务改革发展 | | 1月29日 | 国务院 | 鼓励地方结合消化存量房地产,支持旅居项目用地和服务设施建设 | | 1月26日 | ...

转自：上观新闻 报告显示，今年上海将推进老旧住宅加装、更新电梯，强化房屋全生命周期安全管理。加强党建引领物 业治理，提升物业服务标准化、专业化水平。加快构建房地产发展新模式，推进"好房子"建设，推动房 地产高质量发展。 报告表示，今年要深化五个新城建设，大力推进新城产业细分赛道发展，提升联影小镇、东方美谷等特 色园区能级，加快松江大学城科创源建设，导入新一批重大产业项目和功能性平台，拓展区区结对合作 深度，建成中山医院国家医学中心青浦院区等公共服务设施。 报告显示，今年要深入实施城市更新行动。推动城中村改造提速扩容增效，全面启动整体改造项目，全 力做好村居民征收安置。完成20万平方米旧住房成套改造。 上海市第十六届人大四次会议2月3日上午在世博中心开幕。上海市市长龚正作《政府工作报告》。 ...