国债期货日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.250 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 83851 | -3528↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.875 | 0.01% TF主力成交量 | 61278 | 5250↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.394 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 27838 | -1924↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.170 | 0.07% TL主力成交量 | 83695 | 24158↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.03↑ T03-TL03价差 | -3.91 | -0.02↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.02 | -0.00↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.35 | -0.01↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.04 | +0.01↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.80 | 0. ...

月中，2603合约收跌0.98%，2605合约收跌0.17%，延续弱势。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11165 | -105 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 118654 | -2569 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 426 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -48297 | 52 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The precious metals market continued to experience an accelerating upward trend, with gold prices hitting new all - time highs. The Fed maintained the interest rate as expected at the FOMC meeting. The market may price in a more hawkish Fed stance. Under the assumption of stable inflation and employment data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. The overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long - term, and investors should consider buying on dips, while being cautious of short - term corrections. The London gold is expected to face resistance at $5500 per ounce and find support at $5000 per ounce, and London silver at $120 per ounce and $100 per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1249.120 yuan/gram, up 62.9 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 30891 yuan/kilogram, up 1672 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai gold decreased by 10653 hands to 211,820 hands, and those of Shanghai silver decreased by 4376 hands to 13,190 hands [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 90641 to 521,258 hands, while that of Shanghai silver decreased by 325925 to 759,570 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold remained unchanged at 103029 kilograms, and that of Shanghai silver decreased by 26360 kilograms to 482,008 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1243.02 yuan, up 58.06 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 30,094 yuan, up 1105 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.10 yuan/gram, down 4.86 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 797 yuan/gram, down 567 yuan [2]. - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 1089.96 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 211.42 tons to 15,636.12 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC decreased by 6468 to 244770 contracts, and those of silver decreased by 6846 to 25,214 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold increased by 86.24 tons to 1313.07 tons, and the total annual supply of silver increased by 482 tons to 32,056 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold increased by 174.15 tons to 1257.90 tons, and the total annual demand for silver decreased by 491 tons to 35,716 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index was 96.35, up 0.59 [2]. - **Yield and Volatility**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, unchanged; the VIX volatility index was 16.35, unchanged; the CBOE gold volatility index was 39.67, up 6.54 [2]. - **Ratios**: The S&P 500/gold price ratio was 1.31, down 0.06; the gold - silver ratio was 47.05, up 1.66 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts. Fed Chair candidate Waller supported a 25 - basis - point cut. The Fed noted that the unemployment rate showed initial signs of stabilization, inflation remained relatively high, and economic uncertainty was still high. Fed Chair Powell said that raising interest rates was not the basic assumption for the next move, and he believed the Fed would maintain its independence [2]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: US President Trump threatened Iran again, saying the next strike would be more intense and a large fleet was heading to Iran [2]. - **BOJ Policy**: The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes showed that if the outlook met expectations, it was advisable to continue raising interest rates, and the monetary policy environment would remain loose even after a rate hike [2]. - **Rate Cut Probability**: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in March was 13.5%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 86.5%. By April, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut was 24.1%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 74%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut was 2.0% [2].

股指期货全景日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 IF主力合约（2603） | 4784.0 | +47.6↑ IF次主力合约（2602） | 4774.6 | 环比 +43.8↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） | 3130.4 | +59.8↑ IH次主力合约（2602） | 3124.2 | +58.0↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 8517.6 | -99.8↓ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8531.2 | -87.0↓ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8329.0 | -44.0↓ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8351.4 | -49.4↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1650.4 | -11.8↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3756.6 | -138.8↓ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -179.8 | +36.0↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5407.0 | -150.6↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约 ...

每经AI快讯，1月29日，上海期货交易所公告，拟修订《上海期货交易所交易规则》，制定《上海期货 交易所结算规则》。 ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts amount to 482,008 kilograms, with a decrease of 26,360 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 28,900 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 31,488 yuan per kilogram, a low of 28,632 yuan per kilogram, and closed at 30,891 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 8.51% [1] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the total warehouse receipts decreased by 24,486 kilograms, with specific declines from various warehouses including Zhongchu Wusong and Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao [2] - The ongoing fiscal negotiations in the U.S. Congress may impact market sentiment, as a potential government shutdown looms due to disagreements over immigration policy and funding [2]

Group 1 - The overall trend in commodities is upward, with the strongest sectors being precious metals and non-ferrous metals [1][13] - The top-performing commodities include gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, leading to a bullish strategy focused on these metals [1][13] - Current global conditions indicate ongoing inflation narratives, speculative capital inflows, and uncertainty regarding the dollar's valuation, contributing to rising prices for gold and silver [1][13] Group 2 - Core trading strategies executed include a bullish stance on fuel, silver, and copper, with specific entry and exit points outlined for each commodity [14][15][17] - The trading results show significant profits across all three commodities, with copper and silver achieving over 30% gains, while fuel saw an 8% increase [21] - The effectiveness of the strategies is attributed to a favorable global macro environment and a proactive approach to managing volatility through dynamic stop-loss adjustments and profit-taking [22] Group 3 - Ongoing positions in fuel, silver, and copper will continue to be managed with dynamic stop-loss strategies, while monitoring for potential price corrections [23] - Precious metals remain in a strong position, warranting continued observation for new entry opportunities [23] - External factors such as the pandemic in India and financial instability in Indonesia are noted as potential influences on commodity prices, particularly cotton and palm oil [23]

来源：市场资讯 1月29日，内外盘铜刷新高点，伦铜盘中涨幅超过6%，站上14000美元/盎司关口，沪铜站上10.8万关 口。在贵金属涨速加快的当下，铜的金融属性再次体现，另外近期美元偏弱运行，提振大宗商品价格， 短期铜或维持偏强走势。 宏观方面，美联储FOMC会议决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变，这是联储自 2025年9月起连续三次会议降息后首次暂停行动。美联储声明称经济活动稳步扩张、失业率显示企稳迹 象，重申通胀仍略高企，鲍威尔表示关税通胀预计今年年中消退。美国财长贝森特表示美国一贯奉行强 美元政策。另外市场关注新一任美联储主席的人选，现任主席鲍威尔建议继任应"远离政治"，并且表示 不相信美联储会丧失独立性，我们都强烈致力于维护独立性。当前美元指数围绕96关口波动，黄金涨速 加快，带动贵金属、有色金属交易情绪好转，或进一步激发铜金融属性。 综上，当前铜价逻辑已不能简单从基本面来去定价，更多的需从金融属性的角度去看，整体仍以震荡偏 多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思路。 撰稿：李琪 从业资格：F3046227 交易咨询资格：Z0016145 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资 ...

但值得警惕的是，白银市场的短期狂热已积累一定风险。国泰海通证券同时提醒，从金银比来看，白银 前期的补涨行情或已演绎成短期超涨，后续需警惕银价回调风险。 此外，国投白银LOF的持续火爆，已引发基金管理人的高度警惕，一系列风控措施接连出台。此前的1 月27日晚间，国投白银LOF发布公告称，为保护基金份额持有人利益，自1月28日起暂停国投瑞银白银 期货证券投资基金（LOF）A类基金份额的申购业务（含定期定额投资）。截至1月29日，该基金2026 年以来累计发布19次溢价风险提示。 而交易所也同步收紧风控。1月26日晚间，上海期货交易所发布通知，调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易 限额，这已是去年12月以来，上期所连续第四次收紧白银期货交易限额。 而从行业基本面来看，供需失衡成为白银价格持续大涨的核心支撑。华联期货近日发布研究观点指出， 当前白银供应端增长显著乏力，而需求端则呈现明显增量，光伏、新能源汽车、AI数据中心等新兴产 业的快速发展，对白银需求构成刚性支撑，使得白银市场连续第五年处于供应短缺状态。 事实上，根据世界白银协会《2025年世界白银调查》官方数据，2025年全球光伏用银量预计达7560吨， 同比增长23% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 28, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to close at 4151.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%, the North Star 50 fell 0.16%, the STAR 50 fell 0.08%, the Wind All - A rose 0.11%, the Wind A500 rose 0.43%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.35%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 2.99 trillion yuan, compared with 2.92 trillion yuan the previous day [4] - The non - ferrous metals sector saw a wave of daily limit, and resource stocks strengthened across the board [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - **Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was 3060.557, with a daily increase of 0.27% and a trading volume of 96.37 billion and a turnover of 2526.23 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 300 was 382.26, with an increase of 0.26%, a trading volume of 8294.14 billion and a turnover of 4717.9914 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 1000 was 349.66, with an increase of 0.21%, a trading volume of 8399.7938 billion and a turnover of 6273.57 billion yuan [3] - **China Financial Futures Exchange Stock Index Options Trading Situation**: For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options, the call option trading volume was 3.58 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 2.51 million contracts, the call option open interest was 8.39 million contracts, and the put option open interest was 5.28 million contracts; for the CSI 300 index options, the call option trading volume was 6.29 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 3.21 million contracts, the call option open interest was 20.24 million contracts, and the put option open interest was 7.94 million contracts; for the CSI 1000 index options, the call option trading volume was 21.88 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 13.07 million contracts, the call option open interest was 31.68 million contracts, and the put option open interest was 15.77 million contracts [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Volatility**: Analyzed the historical volatility and the historical volatility cone, including the maximum, 30% quantile value, minimum, 10% quantile value, HV5, HV20, HV60, 90% quantile value, 60% quantile value and the current value. Also presented the next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve [3] - **CSI 300 Volatility**: Analyzed the historical volatility and the historical volatility cone with relevant quantile values and current values, and showed the next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve [3] - **CSI 1000 Volatility**: Analyzed the historical volatility and the historical volatility cone, and presented the next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve [3]