金瑞期货表示，此前公布的非农以及CPI数据偏弱，市场降息预期小幅回升，叠加议息会议偏鸽，使得 金银获得一定支撑。白银继续受到工业和金融双重属性影响，在供需缺口和现货偏紧的驱动下强势上 涨；铂钯则在外盘休市和国内市场情绪和资金带动下走出独立行情。而中长期来说，宏观上包括主权国 家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，金银价格的长期核心驱动因素仍 保持稳健。 新湖期货表示，市场投资热情高涨，叠加国内库存在10月底接近干涸，虽然本月以来有所回升，但仍处 于较低水平，使得国内沪银溢价大幅飙升，创下历史新高。国际方面，全球白银ETF持续流入，全球最 大的白银ETF——SLV（美国）22日单日流入533吨，是历史上第四大单日流入量。同时COMEX白银通 知交割单量持续增加，目前仍未看到交割压力缓解迹象。预计白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上涨空 间，但追高风险较大，建议投资者谨慎考虑。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥 和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 金瑞期货：宏观与低库存共振，银价保持强势 新湖期货：白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上 ...

股指早报 大盘临近 4000 点 2025 年 12 月 26 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.26 报告摘要： 海外方面，圣诞假期，外围金融市场休市。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘低开震荡上涨 0.47%，深成指上涨 0.33%，创业板指上涨 0.3%，市场延续稳步反弹走势。题材商业航天、 人形机器人等保持活跃，券商板块则基本与指数节奏保持一致。市场 指数很稳，但很大风险偏好回升也说不上，基本还是处于结构性行情 当中。板块上看，军工、轻工制造、机械设备、汽车涨幅居前，有色、 商贸零售、煤炭、通信跌幅居前。全市场 3768 只个股上涨，1469 只 个股下跌。消息上看，商务部回应 TikTok、美对华半导体产品加征 301 关税。以后中美科技博弈边谈边打的状况或成常态。 整体上看，近期人民币的升值对于市场信心起到提振，而 A 股也 走出七连阳。市场处于指数稳步上升中的结构性行情，资金布局春季 行情明显。目前指数已经离 4000 点不远，指数可能在冲击 4000 点整 数关口后才会有大波动。 创元研究 股指研究员：刘钇含 邮箱：liuyh@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z0015686 请务必阅读正文后的 ...

12月26日盘中，胶版印刷纸期货主力合约震荡上行，最高上探至4108.00元。截止收盘，胶版印刷纸主 力合约报4108.00元，涨幅1.48%。 胶版印刷纸期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 基本面看，供应端产能利用率微降至52.5%，但生产企业库存环比增至139.3万吨，供应充裕与需求疲软 的矛盾依旧。成本端受木浆价格上涨影响，纸厂亏损压力加剧。实际走势已突破原预测区间，短期强势 或延续，策略上可转为偏多思路，关注价格在4060附近能否站稳形成新支撑，上方压力参考前期高点。 风险在于高库存下需求若持续疲软，价格可能回踩确认支撑。 瑞达期货：双胶纸区间操作 供应端，本期双胶纸产量20.4万吨，较上期减少0.1万吨，降幅0.5%，产能利用率52.4%，较上期下降 0.1%。库存端，截至2025年12月25日，本期双胶纸生产企业库存139.5万吨，环比增幅0.1%。OP2602合 约建议下方关注3900附近支撑，上方4100附近压力，区间操作。 中原期货 胶版印刷纸短期强势或延续 瑞达期货（002961） 双胶纸区间操作 中原期货：胶版印刷纸短期强势或延续 机构 核心观点 ...

Core Viewpoint - 弘业期货 is a significant player in the futures market, with a focus on various financial services, and has recently experienced a decline in revenue and profit margins [2][7]. Company Overview - 弘业期货股份有限公司 primarily engages in commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures investment consulting, asset management, fund sales, and financial asset investment [2][7]. - The company is the first A+H share listed company in the futures industry and is controlled by the Jiangsu Provincial Government's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [3][7]. - As of September 30, 2025, 弘业期货 reported a revenue of 462 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.09 million yuan, down 87.27% year-on-year [7]. Financial Performance - The company has a market capitalization of 10.703 billion yuan and a trading volume of 115 million yuan with a turnover rate of 1.42% [1]. - The average trading cost of the stock is 11.30 yuan, with the current stock price near a resistance level of 10.69 yuan, indicating potential for upward movement if the resistance is broken [6]. - The company has distributed a total of 44.3422 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [8]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders is 54,400, a decrease of 13.10% from the previous period [7]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 1000 ETF, with notable reductions in their holdings [8].

自2023年以来，国海良时期货始终牢记金融机构社会责任，积极响应国家乡村振兴战略号召，以"党建引领、产业赋能"为核心思路，聚焦浙江省杭州市淳安 县特色产业发展需求，通过签订帮扶协议、捐赠资金、开展技能培训等多元举措，助力破解当地产业发展瓶颈，为农户增收致富注入金融力量，用实际行动 诠释期货行业服务实体经济、助力乡村振兴的使命担当。 一、精准对接淳安县百照村：破解高山蔬菜产销瓶颈，激活集体经济新动能 淳安县金峰乡百照村地处山区，平均海拔近400米，独特的地理气候条件孕育出品质优良的高山蔬菜。2021年，百照村村集体立足资源优势，正式运营泽塘 里自然村高山蔬菜种植基地，基地占地面积30亩，重点培育百照羊角辣椒、高山毛豆等特色品种。凭借原生态种植方式和鲜嫩口感，基地蔬菜一经上市便广 受市场青睐，2021年至2023年期间累计产出蔬菜4万余斤，实现销售额8.5万元，成为村集体经济增收的重要支柱，也为当地村民提供了就近就业的机会。 2025年4月22日，国海良时期货党总支副书记、总经理唐见国带队赴安上村开展党建与乡村振兴活动。在座谈会上，唐见国与安上村书记李新竹，以及其他 村干部、村民代表、相关工作人员齐聚一堂，围绕村 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Based on the performance of various sectors in 2025, the report provides technical analysis and risk management guidelines for different sectors in 2026, emphasizing the need for refined and differentiated risk management strategies due to the significant differentiation in sector trends and price fluctuations [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **2025 Review**: The prices of non - ferrous metals showed significant differentiation in 2025, with most rising but with different fluctuation paths. Volatility varied among different varieties, with lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and nickel having higher volatility [12]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Copper (SHFE)**: In the medium - to - long term, it is still in an upward trend, with the next long - term resistance expected between 100,550 - 101,040 yuan/ton. In the short term, the upward trend is not smooth, and there is a risk of adjustment within the range [28][33]. - **Aluminum (SHFE)**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in an upward cycle, but a strong trend requires a signal. In the short term, there is a lack of a strong upward signal, and there is a risk of short - term correction [39][45]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a bullish trend but lacks verification. In the short term, the sustainability of the upward channel needs further verification, and there is a risk of volatility [50][58]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should focus on "continuing trends but increasing volatility, with significant differentiation in variety strategies", using refined and differentiated strategies for different varieties [62]. 3.2. Black Metals Sector - **2025 Review**: The black metals sector showed an overall oscillatory pattern in 2025, with raw materials more volatile than finished products. Finished products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils were under pressure throughout the year, while raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke showed a pattern of falling first and then rising [67][68]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Rebar**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a downward channel, and technical indicators show no signal of trend reversal. In the short term, it maintains low - level operation, and price fluctuations need attention [83][89]. - **Iron Ore**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a triangular consolidation state, lacking technical indicator signals. In the short term, the center of the oscillation range moves down, and attention should be paid to the lower support range [94][100]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should establish the core of "uncertain overall trend but coexistence of structural risks and opportunities", implementing refined and differentiated strategies [105]. 3.3. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **2025 Review**: The energy cost side represented by crude oil declined throughout the year, dragging down downstream chemical products. There was significant differentiation among varieties, with high volatility in raw materials and building materials and relatively mild volatility in mid - stream chemical products [107][108]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Methanol**: In the medium - to - long term, the long - cycle trend lacks technical guidance, and there is still price volatility. In the short term, attention should be paid to rebound opportunities, but sustainability and strength need more trading days to verify [128][135]. - **PTA**: In the medium - to - long term, the downward trend is not completed, and its sustainability is uncertain. In the short term, there is upward repair momentum, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations near the resistance range [140][148]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should adopt refined management, mainly using interval band operations when the trend is unclear and continuously tracking factors affecting price fluctuations [152][153]. 3.4. Agricultural Products Sector - **2025 Review**: The agricultural products sector showed an overall oscillatory and weak pattern in 2025, with significant differentiation among varieties. Feed raw materials and some varieties showed a downward trend, while sugar showed independent oscillations [154]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Sugar**: In the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of decline. In the short term, attention should be paid to the continuation of the downward trend [170][176]. - **Corn**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a triangular consolidation state, and attention should be paid to short - term price opportunities. In the short term, the oscillation center rises, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations in the downward channel [180][188]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should abandon simple judgments on the overall direction of the sector and formulate differentiated strategies based on the technical forms and volatility characteristics of each variety [193].

年度报告——商品期权 潮有暗涌，择舟而渡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 26 日 ★ 商品期权：市场逐步扩容，谱系趋于完善 2025 年，我国商品期权市场在前期高速发展后，步入精耕细作 的稳步扩容新阶段，全年共上市 8 个新品种，使得商品期权总 数从年初的 53 个增至 61 个，覆盖广度与产业深度均得到进一 步提升。同时期权市场成交活跃，重拾增长动能，全年成交量 创下历史新高，与金融期权市场容量差距进一步缩窄。 ★ 波动率：宏观及市场情绪抬升商品波动水平 商品期权标的期货市场呈现出典型的跌多涨少、宽幅震荡、板 块分化格局。商品市场的共振走势主要源于三大核心驱动，包 括美国关税政策反复、国内"反内卷"政策以及年末贵金属板块行 情，整体商品市场波动显著提升。 波动率交易建议关注历史波动率交易与隐含波动率交易的区 别，二者收益分别来源于 Gamma 与 Vega 维度。此外，期权隐 含波动率并非单一线性的结构，而是一个在行权价 和到期期 限 两个维度上动态变动的复杂曲面，这为投资者提供了波动率 期限套利与偏度套利的机会。 ★ 期权策略推荐 回顾 2025 年，宏观贸易政策剧烈调整、全球风险偏好的变化以 及国 ...

深化产融结合，助力产业发展 ——徽商期货成功举办江南集中区新材料企业交流座谈会 12月23日，由徽商期货公司主办的"江南新兴产业集中区新材料重点企业交流座谈会"在池州市江南新兴 产业集中区管委会成功举行。徽商期货董事长、总经理储进率公司专业团队一行，与区内十余家铝基新 材料领域重点企业负责人就当前市场行情、风险管理及期现结合等议题进行了深入交流，活动包含专题 座谈与企业调研两部分，成效显著。 活动伊始，储进在致辞中表示本次会议旨在深化产融结合，为实体企业提供直面市场波动的金融工具 箱，服务实体经济 。 深化产融结合，助力产业发展 ——徽商期货成功举办江南集中区新材料企业交流座谈会 12月23日，由徽商期货公司主办的"江南新兴产业集中区新材料重点企业交流座谈会"在池州市江南新兴 产业集中区管委会成功举行。徽商期货董事长、总经理储进率公司专业团队一行，与区内十余家铝基新 材料领域重点企业负责人就当前市场行情、风险管理及期现结合等议题进行了深入交流，活动包含专题 座谈与企业调研两部分，成效显著。 活动伊始，储进在致辞中表示本次会议旨在深化产融结合，为实体企业提供直面市场波动的金融工具 箱，服务实体经济 。 专题报告 ...

2025年以来，徽商期货研究所共举办乡村振兴培训活动8场，涵盖了黑龙江省鹤岗市绥滨县、佳木斯市 桦南县，以及安徽省阜阳市颍上县、安庆望江县、六安霍邱县等地，活动提供了20余个不同类型的分享 内容，培训94人次。徽商期货的乡村振兴培训活动开展的几年来，覆盖了全国多个省区，根据不同地区 的农业经济结构、农户实际需求等，设计具有针对性个性化的课程内容，农户们普遍反馈积极，对培训 活动给予好评。 黑龙江：掌握避险知识 灵活运用期货 黑龙江省是全国玉米大豆产量第一的大省，2025年公司农产品研究员先后在黑龙江佳木斯鹤岗市绥滨县 和佳木斯市桦南县进行培训活动，并根据当地特色设计了期货基础知识、套期保值及案例分析、期权及 场外衍生品介绍、大豆玉米的基本面分析框架等培训内容。通过培训，当地农企及种植技术人员对金融 基础知识可谓略窥门径，了解到运用期货价格走向来指导卖粮时机，必要时可以通过交割、点价等方式 方法解决卖粮难的问题，而企业亦可以运用期货工具进行套期保值操作。 安徽：运用实地案例 详解对冲机制 2025年徽商期货研究所在安徽省共举办了6场乡村振兴培训，研究员积极走入乡村，与农民开展现场交 流。其中，在六安市霍邱县开展 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices in the domestic market have significantly increased during the Christmas holiday, with the Shanghai silver premium expanding to 1500 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a strong domestic sentiment [4] - The closing price for Shanghai silver futures on December 26 was 18319 yuan per kilogram, showing a daily increase of 6.60% with a trading volume of 985,185 lots and an open interest of 279,608 lots [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai on December 26 was quoted at 18320 yuan per kilogram, which is 1 yuan per kilogram higher than the futures price [3] Group 2 - The overseas market has not followed the domestic trend during the Christmas holiday, and there is potential for further price increases supported by capital [4] - Caution is advised in operations due to the high premium risk associated with silver funds, with suggested trading range for Shanghai silver futures set between 17150 and 19000 yuan per kilogram [4]