证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指涨0.39%，A股成交量980.00亿股，成交金额16999.36 亿元，比上一个交易日增加21.19%。个股方面，1390只个股上涨，其中涨停53只，3998只个股下跌， 其中跌停22只。从申万行业来看，有色金属、石油石化、非银金融等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为5.02%、 3.79%、2.04%；国防军工、传媒、计算机等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为3.43%、2.74%、1.95%。（数据宝） | 房地产 | | | | 万通发展 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -1.95 | 1186.13 | 30.39 | 浩瀚深度 | -9.56 | | 传媒 | -2.74 | 587.64 | 28.52 | 天龙集团 | -8.86 | | 国防军工 | -3.43 | 926.12 | 4.22 | 亚光科技 | -12.82 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | ...

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate industry is entering a new phase of quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a focus on risk prevention, quality improvement, and transformation [4] - The short-term development sector will continue to see policy easing to address supply-demand mismatches, supported by credit [4] - The emphasis will be on upgrading housing quality and establishing standards for new constructions, while ensuring the safety of the entire lifecycle of housing [4] Group 2: Banking Sector Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, primarily affecting 2-3 year fixed deposits, while 1-year deposits remain stable [6] - Credit growth is expected to remain similar to 2025, with a slight decline in growth rate, primarily focused on corporate lending [6] - Net interest income growth is anticipated to improve due to a significant narrowing of interest margins, with most large banks experiencing a decline of less than 10 basis points [6] Group 3: Non-Bank Financial Sector Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector are centered around three main themes: wealth management related to financial technology and brokerage firms, valuation recovery in the insurance sector due to stable interest rates, and the expansion of digital RMB [9] - The retail business is expected to have a competitive advantage, benefiting from the entry of resident funds into the market in a low-interest-rate environment [9] - The digital RMB is supported by national development initiatives, which will drive upgrades in banking systems and payment terminals, increasing service fees in the banking IT and third-party payment sectors [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-share market showed signs of overheating, with a cumulative increase of over 10% in just 17 trading days from December 17, 2025, to January 12, 2026[8] - From January 15 to January 23, 2026, approximately 12 ETFs heavily held by the Central Huijin experienced significant outflows totaling 5590.87 billion yuan, averaging nearly 800 billion yuan per trading day[11] - The outflow was primarily from the CSI 300 (59%) and CSI 1000 indices (16%), while the STAR 50 and ChiNext saw relatively smaller outflows[13] Group 2: ETF Holdings and Impact - Central Huijin's total holdings in 23 major ETFs were approximately 1.28 trillion yuan as of mid-2025, with 12 ETFs having over 70% held by Huijin[21] - The outflow from the 13 ETFs during the specified period resulted in a share decline of approximately 13% to 54%, with the CSI 1000 ETFs experiencing the most significant drop of over 40%[21] - In extreme scenarios, the outflow could represent about 34.59% of Huijin's original holdings, leaving a remaining position of approximately 950 billion yuan[22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Structure - Despite the outflows, market sentiment remained relatively warm, with no significant risk aversion observed, as trading activity and thematic trading remained active[25] - The market structure showed a shift towards smaller-cap stocks, with micro and small-cap indices performing strongly during the ETF redemption period[29] - Value stocks faced significant pressure, particularly in the CSI 50 index, which was impacted by simultaneous redemptions from both the CSI 300 and CSI 50 ETFs[35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports emphasizes the resilience of industrial production and the rapid growth of exports, while domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment remain weak [1][2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is compared to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, highlighting a combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity, which favors structural investment in thriving sectors [1] - Key sectors identified for investment include technology, particularly AI semiconductors and new energy, as well as resource products, with a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is gradually shifting towards high-performance stocks, with small-cap stocks showing significant gains amid ongoing sector rotation [2] - Despite high outflows from broad-based ETFs, there remains potential for market support from institutional investors and arbitrage opportunities, indicating continued market momentum [2] - Focus areas for investment include sectors with sustainable recovery signals, particularly in price increase chains, high-end manufacturing, and the AI sector, with recommendations to consider electric equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment [2] Group 3 - The market is expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, with historical data indicating a less than 50% probability of major index gains in the 20 trading days leading up to the holiday [3] - Post-Spring Festival, a new upward momentum is anticipated, with higher probabilities of index gains in the following 20 trading days [3] - Recommended sectors for attention include electronics, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on commercial aerospace as a theme [3]

上周，A股三大指数涨跌不一。创业板指累跌0.34%，深证成指累涨1.11%，上证指数累涨0.84%。板块 上，贵金属、超硬材料、航天装备、光伏设备等板块领涨，保险、银行、数字媒体、白酒概念等板块下 挫。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | 5日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 000001 | 上证指数 | 4136.16 | +13.59 | 0.33% | 0.84% | | 2 | 399001 | 深证成指 | 14439.66 | +112.61 | 0.79% | 1.11% | | 3 | 399006 | 创业板指 | 3349.50 | +20.86 | 0.63% | -0.34% | 本周重要财经事件：（1）1月26日，广东省召开十四届人大五次会议；（2）1月29日，美联储FOMC公 布利率决议；（3）1月30日，美国公布核心PPI年率；（4）苹果、微软、Meta和特斯拉等科技巨头公布 季度业绩。 后市市场将如何演绎？且看最新十大券商策略汇总。 1. 中信证券：寻找"强承接" ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports a decrease in stock positions among public funds in Q4, with an increase in A-shares and a continued decline in Hong Kong stocks [2] Group 1: Public Fund Position Changes - In Q4, the overall stock position of public funds decreased, while A-share positions increased and Hong Kong stock positions continued to decline [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.2% in Q4, with the ChiNext Index down by 1.1% and the STAR Market down by 10.1% [2] - The median return of actively managed equity public funds dropped to -1.5%, marking the lowest quarterly return of the year [2] Group 2: Asset Scale and Composition - The total asset value of public funds increased from 38.1 trillion yuan to 39.5 trillion yuan in Q4, with stock assets slightly rising to over 9 trillion yuan [3] - The proportion of equity assets decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 22.9%, while bond assets increased by 0.6 percentage points to 53.4% [3] Group 3: Active Equity Fund Characteristics - The total value of actively managed equity funds decreased from 3.1 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, with stock asset scale declining to 2.6 trillion yuan [4] - A-share positions rose from 71.7% to 72.3%, remaining at a relatively low level over the past decade [4] - The net redemption scale of actively managed equity funds decreased to 128.2 billion yuan in Q4 [4] Group 4: Heavyweight Stock Configuration - The concentration of holdings in leading companies decreased, with the market value of the top 100 companies held by actively managed equity funds dropping from 60.3% to 58.8% [5] - The top 50 companies' market value share fell from 47.7% to 46.7% [5] - The positions in the ChiNext increased by 1.2 percentage points to 24.9%, while the STAR Market positions decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 16.7% [5] Group 5: Sector Adjustments - Increased allocations were seen in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, and non-bank financials, while reductions occurred in consumer electronics and innovative pharmaceuticals [6][7] - Non-ferrous metals saw a 2.3 percentage point increase in positions, supported by strong industry fundamentals [6] - The communication sector's position rose by 2 percentage points, while consumer electronics saw a decrease of 2.5 percentage points [7] Group 6: ETF Fund Developments - The total asset value of public ETFs rose from 6.6 trillion yuan to 7.1 trillion yuan, with stock assets accounting for 65% [8] - The total asset value of stock ETFs reached 3.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [8] Group 7: Future Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to show a "long-term" and "steady" trend, supported by multiple factors including industry hotspots and improved liquidity [9] - The market is anticipated to perform strongly at the beginning of the year, with trading volumes reaching new highs [9] Group 8: Investment Recommendations - Suggested areas for investment include AI technology, overseas expansion opportunities, cyclical reversals, high dividend stocks, and sectors with promising annual report highlights [10]

点击小程序查看报告原文 公募基金四季度仓位变动：股票仓位有所下降；A股仓位上升，港股继续下降 2025年四季度，A股整体窄幅震荡。11月中上旬，受中美关系阶段性缓和与"十五五"政策预期带动，上证指数一度刷新年内高点；其后在美联储降息节奏 反复、市场对AI估值泡沫担忧升温等因素扰动下，风险偏好有所回落；至12月中旬跨年行情启动，市场再度走强。总体来看，四季度上证指数上涨 2.2%；前期表现强势的成长风格回调，科创50下跌10.1%，跌幅靠前，创业板指收跌1.1%；偏大盘的上证50上涨1.4%而沪深300微跌0.2%；偏中小盘的中 证1000和中证2000分别上涨0.3%和3.6%；红利风格有所表现，中证红利指数上涨0.8%。在此背景下，主动偏股型公募基金单季度收益率中位数为-1.5%， 较上季度显著下降，单季收益为年内最低。 公募基金资产规模继续扩张，权益资产占比下降，债券资产占比回升。 公募基金整体资产规模连续三个季度扩张，四季度资产总值由上季度的38.1万亿元 升至39.5万亿元。其中，股票资产规模小幅上升至9万亿元以上，股票占资产总值的比重较上季度下降0.7个百分点至22.9%；债券资产占比较上季度上升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with significant recovery in profitability, while major indices show mixed performance and increasing market style differentiation [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The overall A-share market is showing a trend of oscillation upwards, with high trading volume and noticeable recovery in profitability [1] - Major broad-based indices are performing unevenly, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 lagging behind, while mid and small-cap indices such as CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are leading the gains [1] - The recent redemption of broad-based ETFs has increased, highlighting varying levels of support across different sectors and stocks [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests that sectors with relatively low valuations and growth logic, particularly in the consumer chain, are poised for recovery from now until March [3] - Investors are advised to increase allocations in non-bank sectors (such as securities and insurance) and consider domestic demand sectors (like duty-free, aviation, and building materials) to enhance returns [3] - The focus should also be on sectors with strong pricing power in resources and traditional manufacturing, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy, and power equipment [3] Group 3: Seasonal Trends - February is historically one of the months with the highest win rates for major indices, suggesting potential upward momentum as the market approaches a liquidity-rich period before the Spring Festival [4][5] - The spring market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by ample liquidity and a favorable environment for incremental capital inflow [7][9] Group 4: Sector Rotation and Focus - The market is witnessing accelerated sector rotation, with a notable preference for small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks, and growth sectors outperforming value sectors [16] - High-growth sectors such as technology and cyclical leaders in non-ferrous metals and chemicals are expected to remain key focus areas [9][21] - The upcoming earnings announcements are likely to shift market focus towards performance metrics, with high-growth segments anticipated to show strong results [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, leading to a loss of profitability for public funds in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking the first loss after seven consecutive profitable quarters. However, the overall annual profit reached a record 2.6 trillion yuan, recovering losses from previous years [3][6]. Fund Performance - In Q4 2025, public funds reported a total loss of approximately 1.1 billion yuan, ending a streak of profitability. Despite this, the annual profit of 2.6 trillion yuan set a historical record, covering cumulative losses of 1.87 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [6][8]. - Equity funds were the hardest hit in Q4, with a combined loss of 1.81 trillion yuan, while mixed funds also faced losses. In contrast, bond and money market funds continued to perform well, contributing significantly to overall profits [6][9]. Fund Adjustments - Public funds actively adjusted their holdings in response to market conditions, increasing their positions in technology and cyclical sectors. Notably, Zhongji Xuchuang replaced Ningde Times as the top holding among active funds [3][11]. - The top ten heavy stocks saw minimal changes in total market value, but individual rankings shifted significantly, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng surpassing Guizhou Moutai in holdings [12][13]. Sector Focus - The electronic sector emerged as the largest area of investment for public funds, with a total market value of 741 billion yuan. The power equipment sector followed closely, while the communication sector became the third-largest focus, overtaking the pharmaceutical sector [17]. - Public funds increased their positions in oil, non-bank financials, and metals, with significant additions in stocks like Industrial Bank and China Petroleum [15][16]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while sectors like new consumption and AI show strong fundamentals, valuation concerns may arise due to market liquidity tightening. Dividend investments are expected to perform better in 2026 compared to the previous year [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in market trading volume and new fund issuance at the beginning of 2026, which is favorable for the fundamentals of financial IT and brokerage sectors. Brokerage firms are expected to continue rapid growth in their brokerage business, while investment banking, asset management, and overseas expansion are likely to enhance the return on equity (ROE) of leading brokerage firms. The insurance sector has also seen a strong start in both individual and bank-insurance channels, with a continued trend of deposit migration, suggesting a positive outlook for the insurance sector in the spring market [4][6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 3.44 trillion, down 16% week-on-week; however, the average trading volume since the beginning of 2026 is 3.64 trillion, a 105% increase compared to Q1 2025 [4] - New stock and mixed fund issuance in January 2026 totaled 44.3 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase [4] - The "Public Fund Performance Benchmark Guidelines" was officially released on January 23, 2026, establishing stricter standards for benchmark selection and changes, enhancing performance evaluation and compensation management systems [4] Insurance Sector - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a stable research value for ordinary life insurance products at 1.89%, slightly down from 1.90% in the previous quarter, indicating a trend towards stability [6] - The individual insurance channel is under pressure due to various factors, but the strong start in 2026 is expected to improve new policy growth, aided by favorable market conditions [6] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with a potential valuation recovery towards 1x PEV for leading firms [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guangfa Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and China International Capital Corporation H, as well as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance [7]