证券研究报告 | 2025年07月09日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-07-08 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3497.47 | 10588.39 | 3998.45 | 12071.04 | 3055.09 | 991.94 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.70 | 1.46 | 0.83 | 1.20 | 1.81 | 1.39 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 5675.06 | 8864.31 | 2920.89 | 3097.27 | 4365.40 | 230.87 | 晨会主题 【重点推荐】 宏观与策略 固定收益专题研究:债海观潮，大势研判——票息为主，积极持券 【常规内容】 行业与公司 电力设备新能源行业点评：金风科技业务海外快速增长，浙江海风产业 链合资成立海工基地 商贸零售行业 7 月投资策略暨二季报前瞻：积极把握兼具业绩确定性及 成长性的新消费标的 食品饮料行业 2025 年中期 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·风电设备 大金重工（002487） 2025 半年度业绩预告点评：业绩同比高增， 下半年排产订单持续向上 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,325 | 3,780 | 6,752 | 8,383 | 10,009 | | 同比（%） | (15.30) | (12.61) | 78.63 | 24.16 | 19.40 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 425.16 | 473.88 | 1,102.04 | 1,507.70 | 1,995.54 | | 同比（%） | (5.58) | 11.46 | 132.56 | 36.81 | 32.36 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.74 | 1.73 | 2.36 | 3.13 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 50.87 | 45.64 | 19.62 | 14.34 | 10.84 ...

李强指出，当前国际经贸格局正在发生深刻变化，单边主义、保护主义上升，各种 贸易投资壁垒增多，同时新一轮科技革命和产业变革正在深入推进，对企业来说有挑战 也有机遇。希望中资企业顺时应势、积极行动。要打造过硬品牌，加强前瞻布局，提 升"中国制造""中国创造"的全球竞争力。要深耕本地市场，为消费者提供更多畅销对路 的产品和服务，并以巴西为平台辐射更广阔的拉美市场，努力实现更大发展。要尊重当 地法律制度和文化习俗，依法合规开展经营，积极承担社会责任，努力塑造负责任、有 担当的中国企业形象。 与会企业代表表示，中资企业将立足自身优势和特点，加强合作，有效应对各类挑 战，坚持扎根当地，依法合规稳健经营，持续拓展金融、能源、农业、科技创新等领域 业务，维护海外中国企业良好形象，使中国同巴西等拉美国家建立更加紧密的经贸投资 关系，更好实现互利共赢。 当地时间7月8日，国务院总理李强在里约热内卢出席在巴西中资企业座谈会。新华 社记者 王晔 摄 新华社里约热内卢7月8日电 当地时间7月8日，国务院总理李强在里约热内卢出席在 巴西中资企业座谈会。中国银行、长城汽车、国家电网、金风科技、中粮集团、格力电 器、大华技术、中天科技等企业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that the photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" movement that has reached the highest strategic level of the country, focusing on capacity integration in the silicon material segment and strengthening price regulation across the industry chain [1][4] - The current state of the photovoltaic industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with future policy strength being a key variable affecting industry trends [1][4] - In the medium to long term, the photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a phase of high-quality development, where technological upgrades and market structure optimization will become core competitive factors for companies [1][4] Group 2 - Weekly market review indicates that from June 29 to July 4, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.50%, with the Shenwan Electric Equipment Index increasing by 1.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.45 percentage points [2] - In the sub-sectors, the Shenwan photovoltaic equipment increased by 5.76%, while wind power equipment decreased by 0.86%, battery by 1.63%, and grid equipment by 0.82% [2] Group 3 - The report tracks key sectors, noting that EVE Energy has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with funds primarily allocated for projects in Hungary and Malaysia, as well as working capital and general corporate purposes [3] - The Hungarian project is already under construction and is expected to be operational by 2027, with a planned capacity of 30GWh, focusing on producing power batteries, particularly the 46 series cylindrical batteries [3] Group 4 - Investment suggestions for the photovoltaic sector emphasize the importance of focusing on silicon materials, glass, and battery segments that have undergone sufficient corrections, as well as new technologies and leading manufacturers [4][5] - For the wind power sector, the domestic industry chain has a localization rate exceeding 90%, with strong global competitiveness in upstream materials and core components [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Goldwind Technology, Dongfang Cable, and others in the wind power sector, while in the new energy vehicle sector, it recommends companies benefiting from low upstream material prices and stable profitability [5]

Group 1 - Xi Jinping emphasized the development of wind power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to build a new energy system while ensuring coal supply responsibilities [1] - The coal industry is encouraged to transition from low-end to high-end products, moving from primary fuels to high-value products [1] Group 2 - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper products and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals, causing New York copper futures to surge by 17% to a record high [2] - The potential tariffs could increase costs for many industries reliant on copper and disrupt the global copper supply chain [2] Group 3 - The State Council issued a directive to promote the application of AI large models and new technologies in government services to enhance administrative efficiency [3] - The focus is on ensuring safety while steadily advancing the integration of these technologies [3] Group 4 - Tongwei Co. stated that there is no confirmed news regarding the recent rumors of silicon material storage, but prices for silicon materials have significantly increased [4] - The photovoltaic sector is actively responding to market conditions, leading to notable performance among silicon material companies [4] Group 5 - The Chinese government is set to release June CPI data, which may impact market expectations and investment strategies [5] - Investment advice emphasizes avoiding foolish mistakes rather than trying to appear overly clever, highlighting the importance of long-term advantages [5] Group 6 - Various securities firms suggest that "anti-involution" and AI are key drivers for market growth, with potential for major financial and cyclical resource sectors to lead the way [6][7] - There is a high probability of the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark, with financial and technology sectors expected to play crucial roles [7] Group 7 - Seven departments jointly released opinions to accelerate the construction of a universal childcare service system, indicating growth potential in the maternal and infant sector [8] - Zhejiang province launched a consumption promotion action for the summer of 2025, focusing on cultural tourism and sports events, which may benefit related sectors [9] Group 8 - Meta reportedly invested $3.5 billion in a European partner for AI smart glasses, which are expected to be a key application for AI technology [10] - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of intensive new product releases, benefiting the related industry chain [10] Group 9 - Shen Shen Fang A reported a net profit of 85 million to 120 million yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 1411.70% to 2034.17% [11] - Shengnong Development expects a net profit of 850 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 732.89% to 830.88% [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the energy and new energy sectors [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a clear signal against "involution" in the market, suggesting an acceleration in market clearing [2] - The photovoltaic industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with future policy strength being a key variable affecting industry trends [4] - The wind power industry is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with strong domestic competitiveness in core components [4] - The new energy vehicle sector continues to grow rapidly, benefiting from low upstream raw material prices and stable profitability [5] Weekly Market Review - From June 29 to July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.25% and 1.50%, respectively. The Shenwan Electric Power Equipment Index outperformed, rising by 1.99% [2][14] - Within sub-sectors, photovoltaic equipment rose by 5.76%, while wind power equipment fell by 0.86% [14][18] Key Sector Tracking - EVE Energy has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with funds primarily allocated for projects in Hungary and Malaysia, and operational capital [3][28] - The photovoltaic industry is focusing on capacity consolidation in the silicon material segment and strengthening price regulation across the supply chain [4] - The wind power industry has over 90% localization in its supply chain, with significant advantages in upstream materials and components [4] Investment Recommendations - For the photovoltaic sector, it is advised to focus on silicon materials, glass, and battery segments that have undergone sufficient corrections [4] - In the wind power sector, companies like Goldwind Technology and Dongfang Cable are recommended for their strong market positions [4] - In the new energy vehicle sector, companies such as CATL and EVE Energy are highlighted for their stable profitability and growth potential [5]

公司报告 | 公司专题研究 大金重工（002487） 证券研究报告 打造"制造+服务"全产业链生态，管桩出海实现利润升维 行业层面：未来 3-5 年欧洲海风市场潜力与政策红利较大，是公司全球化 布局的优质战略高地，市场份额提升空间大。日韩等新兴市场或将为公司 带来新的增长机会。 公司层面：管桩出海布局领先，打造"制造+服务"全产业链生态模式 随着全球风机大型化和深远海开发发展趋势，叠加海外项目的高交付标 准、高附加值特点，对供应商在制造场地规模、港口条件、工艺设备能力、 综合方案解决能力等提出了更高的要求。配套缺口带来的服务机遇，将为 公司订单增长提供支撑。 1）公司是亚太区唯一实现海工产品交付欧洲市场的供应商。自 2019 年率 先成功开拓欧洲海风市场，2022 年开始连续斩获多个海外项目订单，2024 年公司全面进入欧洲海风市场，成功通过绝大多数欧洲头部业主的合格供 应商体系认证，并作为"一供"或"主供"形成实质性业务合作，覆盖欧 洲海风市场头部前五大业主，在手订单充足。 2）公司完成 DAP（目的地交货）产品模式切换，打通"制造+海运+交付" 一站式服务全链条，订单的附加值得以增加。针对海上风电装备运输 ...

Group 1 - Trump signed an executive order to cut federal support for renewable energy, leading to a significant drop in U.S. solar stocks like Enphase Energy and First Solar [3] - The executive order aims to eliminate and modify subsidies for wind and solar energy, and terminate taxpayer support for "foreign-controlled supply chains" [3] - The U.S. renewable energy sector is facing challenges, with major companies like SunPower nearing bankruptcy and a deteriorating financing environment [3] Group 2 - The impact on China's A-share renewable energy sector will be twofold: short-term emotional shock due to U.S. market trends, but long-term policy support from the Chinese government [4] - China's National Energy Administration has set a target to add over 20 million kilowatts of new renewable energy capacity this year, with non-fossil energy consumption expected to reach 20% [4] - Companies like Longi Green Energy and Sungrow are well-positioned, with Longi benefiting from lower tariffs due to its Malaysian factory and Sungrow securing a major energy storage project in Saudi Arabia [5] Group 3 - The A-share renewable energy sector has shown strength, with significant capital inflow, indicating that smart money is eyeing long-term opportunities [5] - Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the renewable energy sector, particularly in areas like charging stations, energy storage, and wind power [5] - The competitive landscape in China is intense, with some photovoltaic glass companies reducing production, which may optimize the industry but could also impact short-term performance [5] Group 4 - Long-term investment in the renewable energy sector is encouraged, as the global energy transition trend is irreversible, with China accounting for nearly one-third of global clean energy investment [6] - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies with strong technology and overseas presence, especially during market downturns [6]

Group 1 - Typhoon "Danas" made landfall in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, with maximum wind force of level 9 [1] - Zhejiang and Fujian provinces are expected to experience heavy rainfall due to the typhoon, prompting the issuance of "blue" and "yellow" alerts [1] - Wenzhou has raised its emergency response level to II due to anticipated heavy rain and potential secondary disasters [2][4] Group 2 - In the Zhejiang Yuhuan wind farm, wind speeds reached 12.9 m/s with gusts exceeding 17 m/s, and all 32 wind turbines are operating at full capacity [5] - In Fujian Ningde, maximum wind speeds reached levels 8-9, and power plants have halted outdoor operations to ensure safety [7] - Fujian has initiated a level IV flood emergency response, expecting rainfall of 150-500 mm in various regions over three days [9] Group 3 - The Shanghai Railway Bureau has implemented a level III emergency response, temporarily suspending passenger trains on several routes to ensure safety [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved an investment of 2.09 billion yuan in the "Zhongjie Energy Chayouqi (Xinghe County) 500,000 kW Industrial Park Green Power Supply Project," which includes a 400,000 kW project in Chayouqi and a 100,000 kW project in Xinghe County [1][4]. Investment Overview - The total investment for the project is 2.09 billion yuan, with approximately 20% funded by the company's own capital and the remaining 80% to be financed through loans from financial institutions [4][6]. - The project is expected to be completed and connected to the grid by the end of December 2026, with a construction period of about 20 months [5]. Project Details - The project will consist of 50 wind turbines, each with a capacity of 10 MW, and will include a comprehensive building, internal collection lines, a 220 kV booster substation, and a 75 MW/300 MWh energy storage system [4][5]. - The project site is located in Inner Mongolia, characterized by a basin and hilly terrain, with good transportation access [4]. Financial Impact - The project is anticipated to expand the company's installed capacity and market scale in the Inner Mongolia region, although it is not expected to have a significant short-term impact on the company's financial status or operating results [6]. - The financial evaluation indicates that the project has a certain level of risk resistance and feasibility [6]. Investment Entities - The project will be executed by the company's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Zhongjie Energy (Chayouqi) Wind Power Co., Ltd. and Zhongjie Energy (Inner Mongolia) Wind Power Co., Ltd., responsible for the respective project portions [2][3].