1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian palm oil production is decreasing while exports are increasing, which may support the performance of crude palm oil futures. It is likely to break through and reach the range of 4200 - 4250. In China, there is pressure for a strong shock or short - term correction after reaching a high level. After sideways consolidation around 8500 yuan, it may follow the Malaysian palm oil and reach the previous range of 8800 - 9000 yuan. - Regarding soybean oil, the bio - diesel policies are only proposals. CBOT soybean oil has risen by 8 cents, with a nearly 17% increase, and may have a short - term adjustment. In China, the basis quotation is under pressure due to increasing inventory and the off - season demand [1]. 2.2 Meal Industry - The operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybeans have a fast planting progress but a lower good - quality rate. Brazilian soybean sales have declined recently while the crushing profit has recovered. - In China, the arrival volume, inventory of soybeans and bean meal are rising rapidly, and the basis is weak. However, the strength of US soybeans supports domestic bean meal prices. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate strongly, but there is pressure on the upside [2]. 2.3 Corn Industry - In the long - term, the tight supply and increasing demand of corn support its price increase. In the short - term, the price is strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high level, and the market will remain volatile at a high level. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy releases [3][5]. 2.4 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs maintains an oscillating structure. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the demand is weak. The market has no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward driving force is also weak [7][8]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - The global sugar supply tends to be loose, which puts pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar price is also expected to be weak - oscillating due to factors such as increasing import profits and weak demand [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The strong basis of old cotton supports the cotton price, but the expected high yield of new cotton brings long - term pressure. The downstream demand has a marginal improvement but lacks a strong driving force. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range [13]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The national egg supply is large, and the digestion of low - price eggs is okay while high - price eggs have a slow sales. It is expected that the egg price will decline slightly and then stabilize, and there may be some factors trying to boost the price in the later stage [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a 0.36% increase; the futures price of Y2509 was 7680 yuan, up 0.87%; the basis of Y2509 was 670 yuan, down 5.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8800 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.11% decrease; the futures price of P2509 was 8350 yuan, up 0.80%; the basis of P2509 was 450 yuan, down 14.45%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in September was 8872.7 yuan, up 0.31%, and the import profit was - 523 yuan, up 6.82% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9900 yuan, up 120 yuan, a 1.54% increase; the futures price of O1509 was 9375 yuan, up 1.57%; the basis of O1509 was 525 yuan, up 0.96% [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry - **Bean Meal**: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan, down 30 yuan, a - 1.03% decrease; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.39% decrease; the basis of M2509 was - 154 yuan, up 27.27%. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in July was 197 yuan, down 8 yuan, a - 4.1% decrease [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.38% decrease; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan, up 6 yuan, a 0.22% increase; the basis of RM2509 was - 72 yuan, down 22.22%. The crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in November was 14 yuan, down 62 yuan, a - 442.86% decrease [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4242 yuan, up 5 yuan, a 0.12% increase; the basis of the main soybean - one contract was - 282 yuan, down 1.77%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3690 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3686 yuan, up 29 yuan, a 0.79% increase; the basis of the main soybean - two contract was 1 yuan, down 2900.00% [2]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Corn 2509 was 2397 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.08% decrease; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.42% increase; the basis was - 17 yuan, up 41.38%. The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 113 yuan, unchanged. The import profit was 521 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.41% decrease [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2694 yuan, up 9 yuan, a 0.34% increase; the spot price in Changchun was 2720 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 26 yuan, down 25.71%. The 7 - 9 spread of corn starch was - 84 yuan, up 9.68%. The profit of Shandong starch was - 68 yuan, up 18.07% [3]. 3.4 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis was 465 yuan, up 30 yuan, a 6.90% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2507 was 13340 yuan, up 35 yuan, a 0.26% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2509 was 13835 yuan, up 20 yuan, a 0.14% increase; the 7 - 9 spread of live hogs was 495 yuan, down 15 yuan, a - 2.94% decrease [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 14300 yuan, up 50 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14450 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 13850 yuan, down 100 yuan; etc. The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 146597, up 561, a 0.38% increase; the weekly white - meat price was 20.32 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease; the weekly piglet price was 27.14 yuan, down 0.9 yuan, a - 3.07% decrease; etc. [7]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Sugar 2601 was 5535 yuan, down 19 yuan, a - 0.34% decrease; the futures price of Sugar 2509 was 5679 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.21% decrease; the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.35 cents/pound, down 0.10 cents, a - 0.61% decrease; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar was - 144 yuan, down 7 yuan, a - 5.11% decrease [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.17% increase; the spot price in Kunming was 6040 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 361 yuan, up 22 yuan, a 6.49% increase; the Kunming basis was 186 yuan, up 12 yuan, a 6.90% increase [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons, an 11.63% increase; the cumulative national sugar sales were 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons, a 26.07% increase; the national industrial sugar inventory was 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons, an 8.20% decrease; etc. [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of Cotton 2509 was 13540 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the futures price of Cotton 2601 was 13545 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.57 cents/pound, down 1.07 cents, a - 1.58% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread of cotton was - 5 yuan, unchanged [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14756 yuan, down 6 yuan, a - 0.04% decrease; the CC Index of 3128B was 14857 yuan, down 5 yuan, a - 0.03% decrease; the FC Index: M: 1% was 13604 yuan, down 87 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 37.53 million tons, a - 9.8% decrease; the industrial inventory was 94.11 million tons, up 1.21 million tons, a 1.3% increase; the import volume was 4 million tons, down 2 million tons, a - 33.3% decrease; etc. [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry - On June 18, 2025, the futures price of the Egg 09 contract was 3691 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan, a 1.15% increase; the futures price of the Egg 07 contract was 2956 yuan/500KG, up 101 yuan, a 3.54% increase; the egg - producing area price was 2.76 yuan/jin, up 0.68%; the basis was - 839 yuan/500KG, down 55 yuan, a - 7.05% decrease; the 9 - 7 spread was 735 yuan, down 59 yuan, a - 7.43% decrease [14].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Fundamentals in Malaysia are favorable with a 4% decline in production and a 14% increase in exports in the first half - month. BMD palm oil is in a stagnant and adjusted pattern near 4100 ringgit, with support around 4000 ringgit. Domestic palm oil has limited demand and is easily affected by the international market [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA's bio - diesel proposal is positive, and the May US soybean oil inventory was lower than expected. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and rising CBOT soybean prices support the market [1]. Meal - The market is affected by policies such as China - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel mixing requirements. Brazilian soybean sales progress has declined recently, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [3]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high. In the long term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [5]. Pork - The spot price of pork is in a volatile structure. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and the upward drive is weak. However, there is support from the purchase and storage policy [9][10]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, and the original sugar is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak and volatile [14][15]. Cotton - The old - crop basis supports cotton prices, but the expected high yield of new cotton creates long - term pressure. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [17]. Eggs - The national egg supply is large. It is expected that egg prices will decline slightly and then stabilize next week, with some factors potentially pulling up prices later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean oil**: On June 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8320 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7614 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 706 yuan/ton, down 2.49% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8810 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2509 was 8284 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the basis was 526 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; the futures price of O1509 was 9230 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 520 yuan/ton, up 11.59% [1]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; the basis was - 154 yuan/ton, down 23.20% [3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the basis was - 72 yuan/ton, up 20.88% [3]. Corn - **Corn**: On June 17, the futures price of Corn 2507 was 2364 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the basis was 6 yuan/ton, down 71.43% [5]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 35 yuan/ton, up 12.90% [5]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of Live Pig 2507 was 13305 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Live Pig 2509 was 13815 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the 7 - 9 spread was 510 yuan/ton, up 7.37% [9]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan and Shandong were 14250 yuan/ton and 14500 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5554 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; the price of Sugar 2509 was 5691 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; ICE raw sugar was 16.45 cents/pound, down 3.35% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6030 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price in Kunming was 5865 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 was 13525 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of Cotton 2601 was 13530 yuan/ton, unchanged; ICE US cotton was 67.64 cents/pound, down 0.60% [17]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14762 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14862 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [17]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract was 3649 yuan/500KG, down 0.55%; the price of the Egg 07 contract was 2855 yuan/500KG, down 1.35% [19]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.77 yuan/jin, up 2.49% [19].

行业 鸡蛋 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 日期 2025 年 6 月 16 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 鸡蛋 | 2507 | 2799 | 2800 | 2845 | 2796 | 2844 | 45 | 1.61% | 95159 | 74565 | -17690 | | 鸡蛋 | 2508 | 3481 | 3497 | 3564 | 3497 | ...

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 上周现货价格继续弱稳的状态，端午后其实走货情况相对前期有一定好转， 但一方面小码蛋上量仍然较多，另一方面梅雨季即将来临，各方拿货仍显谨慎， 从现货市场来看，未来一段时间预期仍是弱稳。根据 2025 年气象预测和传统历法 推算，今年预 ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

Report Overview - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: June 10, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of eggs is expected to remain weak in the short - to - medium term. Futures should be treated bearishly or sell out - of - the - money call options. Monitor the situation of culled hens. If the spot price stabilizes in mid - to - late June, short positions should exit; if the spot price continues to decline during the rainy season in June, short positions can be held cautiously [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For egg contracts 2507, 2508, and 2509, prices decreased, with declines of 1.18%, 1.35%, and 1.08% respectively. The trading volume of 2507 was 139,636, 2508 was 129,143, and 2509 was 58,582. The change in open interest of 2507 was - 5,506, 2508 was 7,737, and 2509 was 6,453 [7]. - **Spot Price**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.77 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; in the main selling areas, it was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Given the expected long and rainy plum - rain season, futures are bearish in the short - to - medium term. Watch the culling of hens. If the spot price stabilizes in mid - to - late June, short positions should exit; if it continues to fall during the plum - rain season, short positions can be held [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of May, the monthly存栏量 was about 1.334 billion, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 7.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In April, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase from March and the same period in 2024 [9]. - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume increased in May, with an average culling age of 521 days as of May 29, 11 days earlier than the previous week and 15 days earlier than the previous month [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents data on the monthly存栏量 of laying hens, egg - farming profits, the average price in the main producing areas, the seasonal trend of the 06 contract, the basis of the 06 contract, and the 08 - 09 spread [10][16][20]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Egg 2507 | 2877 | 2875 | 2895 | 2856 | 2859 | -18 | -0.63% | 148312 | 124880 | 7559 | | Egg 2508 | 3571 | 3577 | 3587 | 3546 | 3553 | -18 | -0.50% | 75025 | 187355 | 5832 | | Egg 2509 | 3721 | 3721 | 3728 | 3706 | 3709 | -12 | -0.32% | 22391 | 104612 | 3437 | [7] Core View The national egg price is weak today. The average price in the main production areas is 2.79 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas is 3.03 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 08 contract fell 0.50%. The spot price has remained weak and stable this week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the sales situation has improved to some extent compared with the previous period, but on the one hand, the supply of small-sized eggs is still large, and on the other hand, the plum rain season is approaching, so all parties are still cautious in purchasing. From the perspective of the spot market, it is expected to remain weak and stable for some time. According to the 2025 weather forecast and traditional calendar calculations, it is expected to enter the plum rain season on June 6 and last until July 13 or 18, with a relatively long duration and more precipitation. Under this expectation, it is difficult for the spot price to rebound in the short term, and the medium- and short-term futures should be treated bearishly or sell out-of-the-money call options. Continuously monitor the situation of culled hens in the future. The culling of hens has accelerated significantly in the past two weeks, but more continuous over-culling is needed to reduce the increase in supply. If the spot price remains stable in mid-to-late June, short sellers should leave the market in time and not be greedy. Under the bearish fundamental situation, there is a possibility of slow decline and sharp rise. If the spot price continues to bottom out during the plum rain season in June, the previous short positions can be held cautiously [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of May, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.334 billion, compared with 1.329 billion at the end of April and 1.318 billion at the end of March, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, showing a certain degree of growth for five consecutive months. Compared with 1.244 billion in the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 7.2% [9] - In April, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase from 46.33 million in March. Compared with 45.82 million in the same period in 2024, it also increased, ranking as the third-highest monthly replenishment volume in April in the past eight years [9] - In the three weeks up to May 30, the national culling volume of hens was 21.02 million, 19.53 million, and 18.56 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive weeks, and the absolute value was slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of May 29, the average age of culled hens was 521 days, 11 days earlier than the previous week and 15 days earlier than the previous month [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include China's monthly inventory of laying hens in production (in billions), egg farming profit (yuan per hen), average price of eggs in the main production areas (yuan per jin), seasonal trend of Egg 06 (yuan per 500 kg), basis of Egg 06 contract (yuan per 500 kg), and price difference between Egg 08 and 09 (yuan per 500 kg) [10][16][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, or go long on IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" opportunistically [4]. - The short - term bond market trend is mainly volatile, and in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and the expectation of continued loose funds, the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and go long on dips [7]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 777 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 8342 - 8733 yuan/kilogram [9]. - For various metals and non - metals, the price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, trade policies, and cost. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different situations, such as being cautious about going long on copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and waiting for opportunities to short nickel, tin, etc. [11][12][16] - For energy and chemical products, the current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is recommended to short on rallies. For other products like methanol, urea, etc., different trading strategies are given based on their supply - demand situations [40][41] - For agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to the supply - demand and price trends of different products, such as being cautious about going long on pigs and eggs, and paying attention to the cost and supply - demand situation of soybean meal [51][52][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.96%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1139.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro news includes disputes between China and the US on trade, the recovery of China's official manufacturing PMI in May, and Trump's tariff policy [2]. - The financing amount decreased by 1.129 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 6.00bp to 1.4710%. The 3 - year corporate bond AA - level interest rate decreased by 1.23bp to 3.0414%, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1.90bp to 1.6762% [3]. - The trading logic is that after the Trump tariff policy disturbance, domestic policies have stabilized the economy and the stock market, and the risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures on dips and go long on IC or IM futures opportunistically [4]. Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the TL main contract rose 0.56%, the T main contract rose 0.21%, the TF main contract rose 0.14%, and the TS main contract rose 0.04% [5]. - In May, China's manufacturing PMI improved, and the production and new order indexes increased. Trump's tariff increase on steel and aluminum was opposed, and the US manufacturing data was weak [5][6]. - The central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan [6]. - The short - term bond market trend is mainly volatile, and in the long - term, the interest rate is expected to decline. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and go long on dips [7]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.70% to 771.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.07% to 8218.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.47% to 3413.20 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.54% to 34.88 US dollars/ounce [8]. - The US economic data was weaker than expected, and the market's expectation of the Fed's marginal easing monetary policy increased. The Fed's monetary policy stance was dovish [8]. - It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 777 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 8342 - 8733 yuan/kilogram [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices rose slightly and then fell. The LME copper fell 1.22% to 9497 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77600 yuan/ton. During the Dragon Boat Festival, Trump's threat to raise steel and aluminum tariffs led to a rise in US copper [11]. - The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.2 million tons last week. The spot import loss of copper increased, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [11]. - The supply of copper raw materials is relatively tight, but the supply tension has been marginally alleviated. The consumption resilience has weakened, and it is expected that the copper price will face greater resistance to rise. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract this week is 76500 - 79000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M is 9350 - 9700 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated and corrected. The Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 0.42%, and the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to 2448 US dollars/ton [12]. - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline. The supply was stable, and the demand showed a slight improvement [12]. - The domestic commodity atmosphere is bearish, and the official manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 19800 - 20400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M is 2380 - 2520 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - Last week, zinc prices rose and then fell. The Shanghai zinc index fell 1.29% to 22118 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 58.5 to 2658 US dollars/ton [13]. - The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and the domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase in June. The terminal consumption is weak, and the zinc price has a large downward risk [13][14]. Lead - Last week, lead prices continued to decline. The Shanghai lead index fell 0.80% to 16611 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 34 to 1953.5 US dollars/ton [15]. - The downstream lead - acid battery enterprises promoted sales by reducing prices, and the terminal procurement was weak. The supply of primary lead increased, and the production of recycled lead decreased. The lead price may have more downward space [15]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The market rumor of a large - scale relaxation of nickel ore quotas led to concerns about oversupply [16]. - The production of refined nickel remained high, and the demand was weak. The cost provided some support in the short - term, but the demand was the main contradiction. It is not recommended to short on the decline, and it is advisable to short on rallies [16]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fell sharply due to the resumption of production in the Wa State tin mine and the expectation of supply recovery in the second half of the year [17]. - The supply is expected to turn loose, and the demand is weak. The tin price center may move down. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 28000 - 31000 US dollars/ton [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium fell 2.61% this week. The fundamentals are weak, and the downstream replenishment is weak. The supply is slow to clear, and the cost support is weak. The disk is expected to run weakly. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract is 59100 - 60500 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - On May 30, the alumina index fell 0.03% to 2957 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and the import window was open [19]. - The alumina production capacity is in an over - supply pattern, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost. It is recommended to go short on rallies lightly. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12685 yuan/ton on Monday, a decrease of 0.04%. The spot price was under pressure, and the market was in a difficult situation. The 304 stainless steel market is expected to continue the weak downward trend in the short - term [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% [22]. - The pre - holiday commodity market was poor, and the finished product prices were in a weak shock trend. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the supply decreased. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand increased, and the inventory continued to decline [23]. - The current market has entered the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand for steel is weakening. The tariff policy is unstable, and the long - term demand for steel in China still faces great pressure [23]. Iron Ore - The iron ore main contract (I2509) closed at 702.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71%. The supply of iron ore decreased slightly, the demand for molten iron decreased, and the inventory continued to decline [24]. - As the molten iron output peaks and the downstream demand is expected to decline, the iron ore price is under pressure and may run weakly in a shock [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass was weak, and the production enterprises reduced inventory slightly. The medium - term glass price is expected to run weakly due to the lack of significant improvement in the real estate market [25][26]. - The spot price of soda ash was stable, and the supply decreased due to summer maintenance. The demand is expected to decline, and the inventory pressure is large. The soda ash price is expected to run weakly [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The manganese silicon main contract continued to decline, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell and then rebounded slightly. The prices of both decreased significantly this week [27][28]. - The decline is due to factors such as the overall weakness of commodities, over - capacity, and cost reduction. It is not recommended to buy on the left - hand side based on "low valuation" [29][30][32]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures main contract continued to decline. The price is in a downward trend, and it is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips blindly [33]. - The root cause is the over - capacity in the industry and the difficulty of capacity clearance. The supply is still slightly more than the demand, and the price may continue to decline [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and the Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [37]. - The bulls believe in the production - reduction expectation, while the bears think the demand is weak. The operating rate of tire enterprises is different, and the inventory of natural rubber decreased slightly [38]. - It is recommended to follow the trend, take a neutral or bearish view, and operate in the short - term. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [39]. Crude Oil - WTI crude oil futures rose 3.70%, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.91%, and INE crude oil futures fell 3.31%. The Chinese crude oil inventory increased, and the refined oil inventory decreased [40]. - The current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [40]. Methanol - The 09 contract of methanol fell, and the spot price rose. The domestic supply will increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread [41]. Urea - The 09 contract of urea fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is mediocre. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. PVC - The PVC09 contract rose, and the cost was stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not realized [43]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract fell, and the supply and demand were in a de - stocking stage. The terminal export was strong, but there is a risk of valuation correction [44]. PTA - The PTA09 contract fell, and the supply was in the maintenance season. The demand was stable, and the PTA will continue to de - stock. The PTA price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [45]. p - Xylene - The PX09 contract fell, and the PX load increased. The PX is expected to slow down de - stocking in June and enter the de - stocking cycle again in the third quarter. The price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [46]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price may maintain a shock trend. The supply may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price is expected to be bearish in June. The supply will increase significantly, and the demand will decline seasonally [48]. Agricultural Products Pigs - The pig price fluctuated during the holiday. The short - term spot performance is weak, but the space for further decline is limited. It is recommended not to go long and wait for opportunities to short on rallies [51]. Eggs - The egg price was stable during the holiday, and the supply is abundant. The demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to decline this week. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contracts [52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell during the holiday, and the domestic soybean meal price was stable. The soybean and soybean meal are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost and supply - demand situation for the 09 contract [53][54][55]. Oils and Fats - The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in May, and the export increased. The Indonesian palm oil production and consumption increased, and the inventory decreased. The palm oil price has some support in the short - term but is under pressure in the medium - term. The US soybean oil price fell. The oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [56][57][58]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell, and the international sugar supply may be less tight. The domestic sugar price may weaken in the future [59]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated slightly. The downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the cotton inventory decreased slightly. The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [60].