Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, and Anta Sports, among others [1]. Core Insights - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and future monetary policy stability have led to a collective decline in overseas consumer sectors [4][11]. - The snack sector has shown resilience, outperforming the MSCI China index, while other sectors such as luxury goods and overseas sportswear have faced significant declines [4][11]. - The report highlights that most sectors are currently undervalued compared to their historical averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [9][15]. Sector Performance Summary - **Snack Sector**: Increased by 1.7%, with Wei Long's revenue guidance for 2026 projected to grow over 15% due to innovative products and channel expansion [6][14]. - **Jewelry Sector**: Rose by 1.6%, driven by Chow Tai Fook's strong operational performance expectations for FY26Q3 [6][14]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Gained 1.1%, with E.L.F Beauty's sales growth exceeding previous guidance [6][14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Increased by 1.5%, with Li Ning's revenue meeting expectations and a positive outlook for net profit margins [8][14]. - **Pet Sector**: Grew by 0.3%, with strong annual growth despite a slight decline in December [8][14]. - **Gambling Sector**: Slight decline of 0.1%, with Galaxy Entertainment showing resilience as a preferred investment choice [8][14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Decreased by 0.3%, with expectations for recovery in 2026 [8][14]. - **Retail Sector**: Fell by 1.5%, with Target's positive leadership changes noted [8][14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Declined by 2.9%, impacted by market concerns over credit risks following Saks Global's bankruptcy [8][14]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Experienced a significant drop of 4.0%, with major brands like Nike and Adidas facing declines [8][14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Decreased by 5.1%, influenced by proposed caps on credit card interest rates [8][14]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the expected PE ratios for various sectors in 2025 are below their historical averages, suggesting potential undervaluation: - Overseas Sportswear: 30.4x (57% of historical average) - Domestic Sportswear: 13.5x (71% of historical average) - Jewelry: 22.8x (43% of historical average) - Luxury Goods: 27.4x (49% of historical average) - Gambling: 16.2x (26% of historical average) - Overseas Cosmetics: 41.0x (61% of historical average) - Domestic Cosmetics: 27.3x (51% of historical average) - Pet Sector: 36.9x (50% of historical average) - Snack Sector: 29.8x (72% of historical average) - Retail: 29.9x (54% of historical average) - US Hotels: 34.8x (21% of historical average) - Credit Cards: 28.3x (54% of historical average) [9][15].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies including Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, Anta Sports, and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 15x for Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [2][9][26]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing resilience while others face challenges due to fluctuating orders and profit margins [1][3]. - The report anticipates a cautious improvement in downstream orders for 2026, supported by healthy inventory levels and strong sales performance from certain brands [2][20]. - The sportswear segment is expected to outperform the broader apparel market, driven by strong inventory management and long-term growth potential [3][26]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - Several apparel manufacturers reported their 2025 revenue, with Feng Tai Enterprises, Ru Hong, and Yu Yuan Group showing year-on-year changes of -4.5%, +3.2%, and +0.5% respectively for the full year [1][12]. - In December 2025, Feng Tai Enterprises, Ru Hong, and Yu Yuan Group reported monthly revenues down by -0.6%, -3.6%, and -3.7% respectively [1][12]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates a weakening industry sentiment since H2 2025, with Southeast Asia's export performance continuing to surpass that of China [2][17]. - For 2026, the report expects cautious improvements in orders, with a focus on core brand performance and inventory management [20]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with Shenzhou International expected to achieve a 10% revenue growth in 2025 and Huayi Group's profits anticipated to recover gradually [2][25]. - Other companies to watch include Wei Xing Co., Kai Run Co., and Jing Yuan International, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in orders [2][26]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index down by 0.57% while the textile manufacturing sector fell by 0.77% [30].

千问 App 接入全生态，AI 购物时代来临 [Table_Industry] 批发零售业 商社行业周报（2026.1.12-2026.1.18） | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 赵国振(分析师) | 021-38031044 | zhaoguozhen@gtht.com | S0880524030006 | 本报告导读： 千问 APP 与阿里生态全面打通，从"工具"迈入"智能体"时代标志着 AI应用的 关键跃迁，行业提速可期。 投资要点： 告 [Table_Report] 相关报告 批发零售业《智能眼镜：多厂商发力，走向规模 化应用》2026.01.12 批发零售业《即时零售亮眼，电商品类表现分 化》2025.11.22 批发零售业《老铺黄金大幅涨价，恒隆广场店开 业》2025.10.26 批发零售业《风格切换下，新消费再迎布局良 机》2025.10.19 批发零售 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market continues to operate at high levels, while international gold prices have experienced significant declines due to forced selling from passive funds and a stronger US dollar [1][3][5]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - As of January 17, 2026, domestic gold prices range from 992.48 to 1002.50 CNY per gram, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang priced at 1413 CNY per gram [1]. - The price of 999 gold jewelry remains high, while the wholesale market in Shenzhen has seen prices drop to 1158-1218 CNY per gram, creating a price gap of over 200 CNY [5]. - Brand gold jewelry has seen price increases of up to 20% in early January, driven by processing fees and brand premiums, contrasting with the falling wholesale prices [5]. Group 2: International Gold Market - On January 17, 2026, international gold prices fell significantly, with spot gold dropping 1.67% to below 4540 USD per ounce, and New York futures down 1.82% [3]. - The decline began with a forced sell-off of approximately 6.5 billion USD in gold due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual rebalancing, triggering a "stop-loss" effect [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold futures, leading to further market volatility as leveraged traders were forced to liquidate positions [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The strengthening US dollar, with the index rising 0.28% to 99.18, has reduced the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars, despite lower-than-expected core CPI figures [5]. - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 7415 million ounces by the end of December 2025, providing some underlying support to the market [7]. - Geopolitical risks, such as increased tariffs on Iran and military actions in Ukraine, have not been sufficient to counteract the downward pressure on gold prices [7]. Group 4: Market Behavior - The recovery market remains stable, with national average buyback prices for 999 gold at 958-966 CNY per gram, reflecting differing valuations among market participants [7]. - The international gold price is still in an upward channel on a daily level, with 4650 USD as a key resistance level and 4550 USD as a support level [7].

Group 1 - The gold jewelry brands are launching new products and promotional activities ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, focusing on the "Year of the Horse" theme to attract consumers [1][2] - As of January 18, 2025, the domestic price of gold jewelry remains high, averaging around 1435 RMB per gram, with various brands offering discounts and promotions to stimulate sales [3] - Companies like Cai Bai and Chow Tai Fook are enhancing their product lines with creative designs and collaborations, aiming to capitalize on the festive shopping opportunities [4] Group 2 - The jewelry industry is experiencing a divergence in consumer spending, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Puhuang showing resilience despite market pressures [6][8] - Chow Tai Fook's 2025 annual performance forecast indicates a significant profit increase, with net profit expected to rise by 125% to 175% year-on-year, attributed to enhanced product and brand strength [6][7] - In contrast, China Gold anticipates a decline in net profit by 55% to 65% for 2025, primarily due to market challenges and reduced customer traffic [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Free Trade Port is entering a new phase of operation, presenting significant opportunities for industrial development and optimization in the region [2][5]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The 7th Member Conference of the Hainan Industrial Economic Association and the seminar on opportunities from the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure were held in Haikou, Hainan [1][3]. - Representatives from various industrial enterprises in Hainan focused on discussing the opportunities arising from the Free Trade Port's closure [1]. Group 2: Key Insights from Leaders - Lu Zhiyuan, President of the Hainan Charity Federation, highlighted the association's commitment to supporting industrial development through reforms, communication, and addressing enterprise needs [2]. - The Hainan Industrial Economic Association aims to provide professional advice on the development paths for advanced and high-tech manufacturing industries, leveraging Hainan's geographical and policy advantages [6]. Group 3: Industrial Growth and Policy Impact - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Hainan's industrial economy has shown steady growth, with a shift from a single focus on petrochemicals to a more diversified industrial structure [5]. - New industries such as electronic information manufacturing, wind power manufacturing, and biodegradable materials have emerged, alongside future-oriented sectors like biomanufacturing and commercial aerospace [5]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The association plans to assist industrial enterprises in effectively utilizing Free Trade Port policies, offering comprehensive support from customs certification to tax planning and compliance [6]. - There is a focus on enhancing international operations, supply chain optimization, digital transformation, and aligning with international standards through collaboration with top domestic and international institutions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has dropped to $4587.91 per ounce, while domestic gold prices have also seen a decline, leading to increased price discrepancies across different regions and stores [1] Price Trends - Domestic gold prices vary significantly, with local stores offering lower prices compared to major brands. For instance, prices range from 1406 to 1439 yuan per gram in various local shops, while larger chains like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao have higher prices around 1436 to 1439 yuan per gram [1][3] - The price of platinum and silver also shows variability, with platinum prices around 735 to 939 yuan per gram and silver fluctuating between 21600 to 23665 yuan per kilogram [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - The futures market indicates a mixed sentiment, with silver futures showing slight increases while gold futures remain weak. This suggests that while the current spot prices are declining, some investors are still betting on a rebound in silver [4] - The market is reacting more quickly to changes in sentiment, with prices adjusting within hours rather than days. This rapid response indicates a shift in how market participants perceive risk and value [4][7] Consumer Considerations - Consumers face challenges in navigating the gold market, particularly in understanding the difference between investment gold bars and jewelry. The premium on branded jewelry can lead to significant losses when reselling, while investment bars offer more transparent pricing [4][6] - The cost of craftsmanship in jewelry can also affect the overall value, with some products like 3D hard gold being priced higher despite having lower gold content [6] Investment Insights - The current market is experiencing a technical adjustment after a period of rising prices, with key support factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks still in play. This suggests that while short-term fluctuations are expected, the long-term outlook remains stable [7] - Investors are advised to be cautious and conduct thorough comparisons across different retailers to avoid overpaying, as price transparency has improved significantly [7]

你知道吗？ 就在周大福、老凤祥这些品牌金店的金价还死死钉在1320元每克以上的时候，深圳水贝批发市场的黄金报价已经悄悄滑到了 1208元，加上工费也不过1216元左右。 每克超过200元的价差，让同一片天空下的黄金买卖，活生生割裂成了两个世界。 这已经不是简 单的促销，而是一场价格体系的崩塌前兆。 很多抱着"黄金保值"信念冲进金店的人猛然发现，自己手里崭新的金镯子，从付钱的那一刻 起，市值就先蒸发了15%。 2026年1月16日的价格牌冰冷地显示着这场跌势的广度。 周大福的纯金999报价是1324元/克，周生生1321元，老凤祥1323元。 相比前一 天，它们齐刷刷地掉了7到9块钱。 这种同步下跌像一阵寒意，从北京传到上海，再吹到广州和成都。 北京的门店还能卖到1325元，山东 的部分地区已经跌到了1315元。 但所有这些数字，在深圳水贝市场的1208元面前，都显得昂贵而脆弱。 投资金条的情况类似，品牌金条 报价还在990元附近徘徊，而水贝的金条批发价已经触碰980元的关口。 这种价差甚至影响到了回收市场。 全国足金999的回收均价稳定在960元/克上下，深圳水贝的回收价却给到了966元，成为全国最高。 这 ...

Group 1: Gold Jewelry Prices - Several gold jewelry brands in China have shown price discrepancies, with some maintaining prices while others have adjusted them down to around 1435 CNY per gram [1] - Specific prices include: Liufu Jewelry at 1434 CNY/gram, Chow Tai Fook and Xie Rui Lin at 1436 CNY/gram, and Chow Sang Sang at 1431 CNY/gram, which decreased by 5 CNY from the previous day [1] Group 2: Battery Industry Growth - In 2025, China's cumulative sales of power and energy storage batteries are projected to reach 1700.5 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [1] - Power batteries account for 1200.9 GWh, representing 70.6% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 51.8%, while energy storage batteries are at 499.6 GWh, showing a 101.3% increase [1] Group 3: Passive Components Price Increase - Yageo Corporation announced a price increase of 15%-20% on certain resistor products due to significant cost rises in chip product lines, particularly for precious metals [2] Group 4: Smartphone Manufacturers Adjusting Forecasts - Major smartphone manufacturers including Xiaomi and OPPO have reduced their annual shipment forecasts by over 20% due to rising storage costs in the supply chain [2] - Vivo has lowered its forecast by nearly 15%, while Transsion has adjusted its target to below 70 million units [2] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry Performance - The semiconductor industry showed resilience with significant stock price increases, particularly in companies like Longji Technology, which reached a five-year high [20] - The storage chip sector also saw historical highs for companies like Baiwei Storage and Jiangbo Long [20] Group 6: New Product Developments - Samsung Display has commenced mass production of its 8.6-generation OLED panel line, indicating advancements in display technology [2] - Apple is expected to launch its AI glasses in the second quarter of this year, with design advantages over existing products [3] Group 7: Regulatory Actions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the IPO registration of Fuen Co., Ltd. on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [7] - Several companies, including Haizheng Pharmaceutical and Mengguli, received warnings from regulatory bodies for financial discrepancies in their disclosures [8][9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic rise in gold and silver prices has led to significant challenges for many companies in the industry, resulting in operational failures and financial distress [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - Gold prices have surged over 60% in the past two years, marking the largest annual increase this century, while silver prices have seen an even more remarkable rise of over 140% in 2025 [1]. - Since the beginning of 2026, gold prices have continued to climb, reaching historical highs, with silver prices increasing nearly 30% in just a few trading days [1]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Companies in the gold and silver industry may face significant risks due to their inadequate risk management practices, particularly in raw material procurement, inventory management, and operational oversight [2]. - The volatility in gold and silver prices can lead to drastic fluctuations in costs, which can catch companies off guard, especially if they have not aligned their raw material purchases with sales [2]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Companies are advised to adopt a cautious approach towards price volatility, focusing on precise matching of raw material purchases with product sales to mitigate risks [3]. - Utilizing futures contracts for gold and silver may provide a hedging mechanism to manage the risks associated with price fluctuations, while avoiding speculative trading practices [3].