Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points, closing at 3914.01, up 0.65% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw significant gains, closing at 13146.72 (up 1.25%) and 3092.50 (up 1.31%) respectively [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (up 2.85%), communication (up 2.81%), and electronics (up 1.58%) [2] - Conversely, the weakest sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (down 0.43%) and environmental protection (down 0.23%) [2] Concept Indexes - Notable concept indexes that performed well included smart speakers (up 3.71%) and AI mobile phones (up 3.39%) [2] - Underperforming concepts included horse racing (down 0.92%) and digital watermarking (down 0.75%) [2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement but still below the expansion threshold [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, marking the first contraction in three years, primarily due to seasonal effects and diminishing impacts from policy measures [4] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic economic fundamentals are expected to gradually improve under a backdrop of policy support, aiming for a growth target of around 5% for the year [5] - Key upcoming events include the political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference in December, which will set the policy direction for 2026 [5] - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, new energy, technology growth, and dividend stocks [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2][5] - Silver: Accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [2][5] - Copper: Tight supply expectations lead to price increases [2][10] - Zinc: Supply cuts result in a volatile and bullish trend [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][20] - Aluminum: Strong performance [2][24] - Alumina: Consolidating at the bottom [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24] - Platinum: Volatile upward trend [2][27] - Palladium: Sideways consolidation [2][28] - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [2][31] - Stainless steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [2][31] - Lithium carbonate: Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [2][36] - Industrial silicon: Volatile and bearish [2][39] - Polysilicon: The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [2][39] - Iron ore: Limited downstream demand and over - valued [2][42] - Rebar: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][46] - Hot - rolled coil: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][47] - Ferrosilicon: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Silicomanganese: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Coke: Wide - range volatility [2][55] - Coking coal: Wide - range volatility [2][56] - Logs: Low - level volatility [2][58] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 959.64, up 1.05%; the night - session closing price was 964.72, up 0.66%. The trend strength is 1. Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [5] - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 13282, up 4.46%; the night - session closing price was 13766.00, up 5.08%. The trend strength is 1. It is accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [5] Copper - The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 89,280, up 2.12%; the night - session closing price was 89380, up 0.11%. The trend strength is 1. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [10][12] Zinc - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22590, up 0.74%. The trend strength is 1. Supply cuts lead to a volatile and bullish trend [13] Lead - The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17075, down 0.09%. The trend strength is 0. Reduced inventory supports prices [16] Tin - The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 306,580, up 0.50%; the night - session closing price was 306,890, down 0.27%. The trend strength is 0. Supply is disrupted again [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1. Strong performance [24] - Alumina: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0. Consolidating at the bottom [24] - Cast aluminum alloy: The closing price of the main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1. Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24] Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: The trend strength is 1. Volatile upward trend [27][29] - Palladium: The trend strength is 0. Sideways consolidation [28][29] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0. Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [31] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0. High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [31] Lithium Carbonate - The closing price of the 2601 contract was 95,120. The trend strength is 0. Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [36] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The closing price of Si2601 was 9,145. The trend strength is - 1. Volatile and bearish [39] - Polysilicon: The closing price of PS2601 was 57,705. The trend strength is - 2. The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [39] Iron Ore - The closing price of the 12601 contract was 801.0, up 0.88%. The trend strength is 0. Limited downstream demand and over - valued [43] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,134, up 1.16%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of HC2601 was 3,327, up 1.03%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 5466. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] - Silicomanganese: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 5724. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The closing price of J2601 was 1619.5, up 2.9%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] - Coking coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1093, up 2.4%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] Logs - Logs: Low - level volatility [58]

编辑 ｜ 钉钉 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅 % v | 现价 | 涨跌 | 主力净流入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600724 | 宁波富达 | +9.96% | 5.85 | 0.53 | 4101.06万 | | 002285 | 世联行 | +9.87% | 3.34 | 0.30 | 1.20亿 | | 600340 | 华夏幸福 | +5.51% | 2.49 | 0.13 | 4187.45万 | | 000609 | ST中迪 | +5.00% | 11.98 | 0.57 | -2002.89万 | | 000608 | *ST阳光 | +3.03% | 2.72 | 0.08 | 64.00万 | | 600173 | 卧龙新能 | +2.79% | 8.11 | 0.22 | -942.62万 | | 000656 | *ST金科 | +2.03% | 1.51 | 0.03 | 1246.66万 | | 000797 | 中国武夷 | +1.39% | 3.65 | 0.05 | -482.19万 | | 000560 | 我爱 ...

12月2日，房地产板块探底回升，截至发稿，世联行、宁波富达双双涨停，华夏幸福涨超5%，卧龙新能、特发服务、 我爱我家跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅 % v | 现价 | 涨跌 | 主力净流入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600724 | 宁波富达 | +9.96% | 5.85 | 0.53 | 4101.06万 | | 002285 | 世联行 | +9.87% | 3.34 | 0.30 | 1.20亿 | | 600340 | 华夏幸福 | +5.51% | 2.49 | 0.13 | 4187.45 万 | | 000609 | ST中進 | +5.00% | 11.98 | 0.57 | -2002.89万 | | 000608 | *ST 阳光 | +3.03% | 2.72 | 0.08 | 64.00万 | | 600173 | 卧龙新能 | +2.79% | 8.11 | 0.22 | -942.62万 | | 000656 | *ST 金科 | +2.03% | 1.51 | 0.03 | 1246.66万 | | 000797 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the overall situation of multiple industries, including upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors, and also mentions relevant policies and price trends. It points out that there are policy promotions in the downstream of the real estate industry and the service industry, and there are price fluctuations and changes in the operating conditions in various industries [1][2][3]. 3. Industry - Specific Summaries Upstream - **Black**: Coal prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Agriculture**: The prices of eggs and palm oil have rebounded, while the price of cotton has a 0.38% change. The average wholesale price of pork has a 0.45% change. The prices of some agricultural products such as corn, eggs, palm oil, and cotton are tracked in the price index table, with varying degrees of year - on - year changes [2][36]. - **Energy**: The price of liquefied natural gas is fluctuating, and the coal price has a - 1.57% year - on - year change on December 1 [2][36]. Mid - stream - **Chemical**: The operating rates of PX and urea have declined [3]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3]. - **Infrastructure**: It is the off - season for asphalt construction [3]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have slightly rebounded [3]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights is at a low level [3]. 4. Policy Information - **Production Industry**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages Chinese photovoltaic, wind power, lithium battery, and new energy vehicle enterprises to "go global" and participate in the construction of green energy projects in countries along the "Belt and Road" [1]. - **Service Industry**: Chinese citizens can travel and conduct business in Russia without a visa from December 1, 2025, to September 14, 2026, for up to 30 days. Many cities are intensively implementing a new round of housing purchase subsidy policies, with Changzhou offering a maximum subsidy of 200,000 yuan, and about 100 cities and districts such as Hangzhou and Wuhan increasing subsidy efforts this year [1].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI index for November is at 49.2%, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a minor recovery within the contraction zone [6][7] - The new orders index for November is also at 49.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, likely driven by the upcoming holiday shopping season [6][7] - The production index stands at 50.0%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating stability at the threshold level [6][7] Macroeconomic Overview - Manufacturing purchasing and inventory intentions are still in the contraction zone, suggesting a need for further improvement in procurement sentiment [6][7] - Fixed asset investment projects, particularly in infrastructure and affordable housing, are expected to gain momentum towards the end of the year and the beginning of the next [6][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up by 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.25% to 13146.72 [3] - The performance of various industry indices shows that non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors led with increases of 2.85% and 2.81%, respectively, while agriculture and forestry sectors saw declines [4] Sector Analysis - The manufacturing sector's price index showed a recovery in November, with the main raw material purchase price index rising by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating a high level of activity [7] - The equipment manufacturing and raw materials industries are sensitive to downstream fixed asset investments, with some signs of demand recovery in November [8]

Economic Growth Outlook - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%[4] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is projected to be 53.5% in 2025, up from 44.5% in 2024[26] - The anticipated growth rate of social retail sales is around 4% in 2026, with final consumption expenditure growth expected to exceed 5%[51] Export Performance - China's export share is projected to continue its upward trend, with an expected growth rate of 4-5% in 2026[21] - As of July 2025, China's export share reached 15.1%, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating strong global competitiveness[14] Investment Stability - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline of around 10.2% in 2026, a significant improvement from previous years[55] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly in 2026, supported by new policy tools and long-term special bonds[74] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% in 2026, driven by food prices, while PPI is projected to recover from a decline of -2.8% in 2025[95][116] - The core CPI is expected to maintain a higher level of around 0.8-1% in 2026, reflecting improved consumer confidence and spending[110] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The narrow deficit ratio is projected to increase to 4-4.3% in 2026, with a special bond issuance of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[127] - New local special bonds are expected to be in the range of 5-5.5 trillion yuan, marking an increase from 2025[128]

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，11月A股市场震荡调整，交易活跃度有所下降，风格演绎阶段性"高切低"但持续时间短且主线不清，红利略有相对 表现。从全球范围看，主要经济体股票市场普跌，一方面投资者对于美联储降息节奏预期反复，另一方面对当前AI资产是否已经出现泡沫、科技叙事持 续性的担忧阶段性升温。 展望后市，中金认为短期风格切换较难持续，在中外流动性宽松周期共振的背景下，A股市场估值相对合理，AI科技革命与能源革命支撑上游原材料到中 游制造需求，成长产业高景气带动上市公司业绩改善，震荡上行的趋势仍在延续，当前时点至明年初，仍重点关注大盘成长风格，较长时间维度的风格切 换可能出现在明年一季度左右。四季度以来通胀预期普遍下调，年末涉及房地产、促消费等相关领域的政策信号有待观察。 5）金融：银行高股息属性吸引中长期资金配置，股票市场情绪与活跃度边际回落。在宏观经济寻底阶段，银行股盈利保持稳定，凭借股息确定性与低估 值，吸引保险等中长期资金持续增加配置。10月保险行业保费收入同比增长8%，保险公司资产总额同比增速约为16%，我们认为"开门红"期间保费有望 维持较好增长。11月全部A股日均成交额下行至1.9万亿元，两 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Boao Forum for Entrepreneurs will be held from December 2 to December 5 in Boao, Hainan [1] - The 2025 China International Maritime Exhibition will take place from December 2 to December 5 in Shanghai [1] - The film "Zootopia 2" has surpassed 2 billion yuan in box office revenue as of December 1, 18:30 [1][3] - DeepSeek released two official model versions, DeepSeek-V3.2 and DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale, on December 1 [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the trading margin standards for polysilicon futures PS2601, effective December 3, 2025 [2] - The Shanghai government issued new regulations for talent introduction and permanent residency applications, effective December 1 [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission released the 2025 version of the REITs project industry scope list, including data centers and AI infrastructure projects [2] Group 3 - The release of the Beanbag mobile assistant is expected to drive growth in the AI mobile assistant market, with several companies experiencing stock price surges [4] - Research institutions believe that the release of the preview version of the mobile assistant is a strategic move by model manufacturers to capture the mobile hardware platform [5] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley raised its production forecast for Google's TPU chips, predicting explosive growth in the next two years, which may lead to significant revenue from third-party sales [6][7] - The global AI inference market is expected to reach $150 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 40% [7] Group 5 - Rare earth prices have collectively risen by 3-6% due to tight supply and stable demand from domestic and overseas markets [8] - The supply side is experiencing tightness due to maintenance and raw material issues, while demand from magnetic material companies remains strong [8] Group 6 - Baiwei Storage adjusted its share repurchase plan, increasing the total amount from 20 million to 80 million yuan [9] - Industrial Fulian reported a total share repurchase of 9.32 million shares, amounting to 247 million yuan [9] - Hengyi Petrochemical announced plans for a share buyback of 1.5 to 2.5 billion yuan [10] Group 7 - Beijing Junzheng received a net buy of 251 million yuan from institutional seats, indicating a positive outlook for the storage product market [11] - Guangqi Technology saw a net buy of 147 million yuan, driven by demand for advanced materials in high-end equipment [12] Group 8 - Significant capital inflow into the innovative drug sector has been observed, with a net subscription of 19.13 billion yuan in innovative drug ETFs since late October [13] - Institutions are focusing on companies with dual commercialization and overseas expansion capabilities in the innovative drug space [13]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of commercial real estate REITs in China marks a significant expansion of the REITs market, transitioning from infrastructure to commercial real estate, and is seen as a key measure for high-quality market development [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expansion and Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is soliciting opinions on the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, indicating a formal expansion into this sector [1]. - The pilot program aims to create standardized financial solutions to revitalize existing assets and establish a new model for real estate development [1][3]. - The existing infrastructure REITs market has laid a solid foundation, with 77 products listed and a cumulative financing scale of 207 billion yuan, validating the REITs model's feasibility in China [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Significance - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is expected to facilitate a transformation in the real estate sector from a high-leverage, high-turnover model to a long-term holding and professional operation model [4][11]. - The pilot program addresses the urgent need for liquidity in the commercial real estate sector, allowing substantial assets to be converted into standardized financial products [4][5]. - The program is anticipated to create a virtuous cycle of investment, enabling a closed loop of development, REITs listing, capital recovery, and reinvestment [4][5]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The pilot program emphasizes a market-oriented and legal framework, ensuring continuity and stability in regulations to facilitate a smooth integration into the existing market system [6][8]. - Fund managers are required to take an active role in asset management, shifting from passive holders to proactive managers, which necessitates a professional team with expertise in commercial real estate [7][8]. - Clear asset admission standards are established to ensure that only high-quality, cash-flow-generating assets are included, thereby protecting investor interests [7][8]. Group 4: Dual-Track Development - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs signifies a dual-track development strategy, allowing both infrastructure and commercial real estate REITs to coexist and complement each other [9][10]. - Infrastructure REITs are characterized by stable cash flows and lower volatility, while commercial real estate REITs are more sensitive to market conditions, providing growth potential [10][11]. - This dual-track approach is expected to enhance financial services for key economic sectors, promoting urban commercial space improvement and consumption upgrades [11].