大行下架五年期存单，负债端精细化管控强化，息差有望进一步企稳。 中信证券主要观点如下： 事项： 11月27日，金融稳定理事会（FSB）公布2025年度全球系统重要性银行名单，工商银行从第2组升至第3 组，成为首家进入第3组的中资银行； 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，上周市场整体反弹，银行板块表现平淡。中信证券认为，多 家银行年内中期分红落地，产品型资金存在配置需要，有助催化银行股短期市场表现；低估值隐含的价 值空间依旧显著，建议机构积极布局，收获高确定性回报。 根据证券时报报道，六大行近日集体下架五年期大额存单，在售大额存单只剩三年期。进一步统计看， 部分股份行与中小银行亦已同步下架三、五年期定期存款，部分大行分支行则在2022年前后就停发五年 期，且此前已存在三、五年期存款利率倒挂现象。分析来看，大行集中下架五年期存单与中小银行的跟 进，本质上是在长期息差承压背景下的负债端精细化管理举措，资产端在LPR多轮下调与存量贷款置换 影响下，收益率延续下行。银行通过缩短存款期限、压缩高成本长期负债，能有效节约负债成本。此 外，根据金管总局数据，三季度银行息差环比初步企稳，财报数据亦显示，期初期末平均法测算 ...

A股 - Minmetals Capital's announcement of a related party transaction has drawn industry attention, with its subsidiary Minmetals Trust planning to jointly invest in a joint venture with Minmetals Real Estate, injecting 300 million yuan in cash and an asset package valued at 16.29 billion yuan [2] - The results of the subscription for Moer Thread, known as the "first domestic GPU stock," were announced, with public funds, social security funds, and pension funds acquiring approximately 38.59 million shares, accounting for 98.44% of the offline final issuance [2] - Yunnan Aluminum announced plans to acquire stakes in three aluminum companies from Yunnan Metallurgical Group, while AVIC Helicopter's subsidiary plans to merge with another wholly-owned subsidiary [2] 港股 - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a surge, surpassing the NYSE and NASDAQ, aiming to become the top global fundraising market for new stocks by 2025, with 81 new listings raising a total of 215.98 billion HKD in the first ten months of the year [3] - More than half of the fundraising amount in Hong Kong has come from 14 A-share companies, with notable price discrepancies between A-shares and H-shares, exemplified by CATL's H-share price being over 14% higher than its A-share price [3] 理财 - In November, nine dividend-themed funds were established, raising a total of 6.615 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high for the year, with significant contributions from several funds launched on November 25 [4] - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have begun to withdraw 5-year large-denomination time deposits, focusing on shorter-term products, with a broad impact across various banks [4] - Sixteen technology-themed funds have been approved, including several ETFs focused on artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, with some products receiving approval on the same day they were submitted [4] 个人养老金 - As the year-end personal pension contribution window approaches, banks are intensifying promotional efforts, offering exclusive benefits to attract customers to open accounts and contribute funds, with potential subsidies of around 600 yuan for maximum contributions [5] 债务 - The issuance of new local special bonds in November is expected to reach 492.2 billion yuan, an increase of over 200 billion yuan from the previous month, alongside a significant rise in refinancing bonds [5] 其他 - From January to October, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China totaled 595.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing being the main profit growth drivers [6] - China remains the world's largest market for industrial robots, with significant improvements in performance and quality, and a projected increase in domestic multi-joint robot sales [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new credit repair management method, effective from April 1, 2026, allowing credit subjects to apply for credit repair under certain conditions [6] - China's foreign direct investment reached 1,033.23 billion yuan in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with investments made in 9553 overseas enterprises across 152 countries and regions [7] - The Chinese medical device market is expected to reach 1.22 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by innovation, with a record number of approved innovative medical devices [7]

Group 1 - The top three stocks with the highest short-selling ratios are New World Development Co. Ltd. (80016), SenseTime Group Inc. (80020), and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (80175), all at 100.00% [1][2] - The highest short-selling amounts are recorded for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (09988) at 1.502 billion, Meituan (03690) at 1.131 billion, and Tencent Holdings Ltd. (00700) at 531 million [1][2] - The stocks with the highest deviation values are Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (80175) at 54.50%, Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd. (82388) at 45.83%, and GF Securities Co. Ltd. (01776) at 40.23% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten short-selling ratios include stocks like Li Ning Company Limited (82331) and JD Health International Inc. (86618), all at 100.00% [2] - The top ten short-selling amounts also feature stocks such as Pop Mart International (09992) at 499 million and China Construction Bank Corporation (00939) at 391 million [2] - The top ten deviation values include stocks like SenseTime Group Inc. (80020) at 38.77% and JD Group (89618) at 31.32% [2]

Core Insights - Charlie Munger, the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, continued to pursue bold investment opportunities and face new challenges even in his later years, demonstrating a commitment to lifelong learning and engagement in the investment world [2][3]. Investment Strategies - Munger made significant investments in the coal industry, an area he had avoided for 60 years, resulting in over $50 million in gains from stocks like Consol Energy and Alpha Metallurgical Resources, which saw their prices double before his passing [3][8]. - He also increased his real estate investments, partnering with a young neighbor, Avi Meyer, to acquire nearly 10,000 garden-style apartments in Southern California, with the assets valued at approximately $3 billion [9][13]. Personal Engagement - Munger maintained an active role in his investments, personally overseeing details such as community selection and building quality, even participating in negotiations for acquisitions shortly before his death [10][13]. - His relationship with Meyer exemplified his mentorship style, as he encouraged Meyer to pursue higher education and supported his ventures in real estate [9][13]. Health and Lifestyle - Despite facing health challenges, including significant vision issues, Munger remained socially active, participating in a weekly breakfast club with friends and business associates, which provided him with mental stimulation and camaraderie [14][15]. - Munger's dietary preferences were noted, as he enjoyed simple foods and resisted strict dietary guidelines, often indulging in takeout meals [18][20]. Legacy and Philosophy - Munger's approach to investing emphasized the importance of a few key decisions leading to success, reflecting a philosophy of quality over quantity in investment choices [15]. - He expressed satisfaction with his achievements and optimism for Berkshire Hathaway's future, indicating a belief in the enduring value of the investment framework he helped establish [21].

【 摘要 】摩根资产管理李德辉认为，短期回调或不改长期投资机遇，A股整体仍处于一个健康的 上行通道中。摩根士丹利基金吴慧文指出，债券市场已从单边行情进入低利率、低波动、低利差 的震荡周期，进入"交易为王时代"。 图片 一、焦点锐评 图片 1．前10月工业企业利润同比增长1.9%，增速回落 11月27日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，1-10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长1.9%，前 值增长3.2%。从三大门类看，1-10月份，采矿业下降27.8%，降幅较1-9月份收窄1.5个百分 点；制造业增长7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长9.5%。10月份，受上年同期基 数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。 【解读】中金公司张文朗团队认为，工业企业利润增速显著回落，利润下滑主要由营收收缩 （-3.3%）、费用率上升（+0.38个百分点）及投资收益骤降（10月其他损益降至201亿元，较9 月回落近60%）共同驱动。结构分化，采矿业利润降幅收窄，有色开采保持29.7%高增长，煤炭 与油气仍处下行；制造业全链条利润承压，上游与中游受投资收益与费用拖累显著，下游消费品 降幅 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Industry Selection - In 2026, AI is expected to significantly drive growth in the computer industry, resonating with high-growth sectors such as domestic production, quantum technology, financial IT, and intelligent driving [2] - The rapid iteration of models and high demand for computing power may accelerate commercialization [2] - The advancement of industrial software into a "deep water zone" is anticipated to support the strategy of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse [2] - These dynamics could collectively promote both performance and valuation recovery in the industry [2] Group 2: Real Estate Strategy for 2026 - The real estate sector is projected to transition from "scale expansion" to a new phase of "quality efficiency" in 2026 [5] - Policy tools are expected to achieve a "bottom line + quality improvement" dual drive through affordable housing and urban renewal [5] - Core cities' improved residential properties may become new anchors for capital amidst differentiated demand [5] - Following supply clearance, the increase in industry concentration is likely to reshape the competitive landscape of real estate companies [5] - REITs and light asset models are anticipated to initiate a new investment logic characterized by "low volatility and stable returns" [5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Outlook for 2026 - The article discusses when the oversupply of oil may reach an inflection point and the marginal shifts in supply and demand expected next year, along with the equilibrium price of oil [7] - A global LNG expansion wave is anticipated, with ongoing interest in gas turbines, presenting opportunities in the European and American natural gas markets [7] Group 4: AI and Market Strategy - The article explores concerns regarding the AI bubble and how traditional macro strategy frameworks may fail to capture AI's impact [9] - Beyond the "bubble theory," the debt-driven growth associated with AI is expected to create various opportunities [9]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in production and demand [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains above the critical point at 50.1%, indicating continued growth in this sector [2] Group 2: Small and Medium Enterprises - The PMI for small enterprises has significantly increased to 49.1%, up by 2.0 percentage points, marking the highest level in six months [2] - Medium-sized enterprises show a slight improvement with a PMI of 48.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month [2] - Large enterprises, however, experienced a decline in PMI to 49.3%, down by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a drop in economic activity [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in the sector's economic performance [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index has also dropped to 49.5%, down by 0.7 percentage points, influenced by factors such as the end of holiday effects [3][4] - The construction sector shows signs of recovery with a business activity index of 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, indicating improved confidence among construction firms [4] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 53.1%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 55.9%, despite a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, suggesting that service sector firms remain optimistic about future market conditions [4] Group 5: Policy Impact - The implementation of new policy financial tools has resulted in the allocation of 500 billion yuan, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on key sectors such as digital economy and infrastructure [5] - The additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds allocated to local governments is expected to further stimulate investment in manufacturing and infrastructure, contributing to an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [5]

需求改善带动生产趋稳 11月制造业PMI回升 ◎记者 陈芳 国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会11月30日发布的数据显示，11月，制造业采购经理 指数（PMI）为49.2%，比10月上升0.2个百分点。其中，新出口订单回升提振制造业，特别是拉动中小 企业景气度改善；受年底重点项目加快推进影响，建筑业景气度回升。 专家分析，11月，制造业景气度小幅回升，市场信心有所改善，但三大PMI指数仍位于荣枯线以下，应 加大宏观政策实施力度，推动全年经济平稳收官。 制造业出口趋稳 从制造业的分项指数看，出口需求回升，尤其是消费品制造业出口较10月好转。需求改善带动制造业生 产趋稳运行，企业销售加快。 11月，制造业新订单指数为49.2%，比10月上升0.4个百分点。其中，新出口订单指数从10月45.9%回升 至11月的47.7%，回升了1.7个百分点，明显改善。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，11月制造业出口是全面性地趋稳，制造业四大行业以及大中小企业 的新出口订单指数全部较10月上升。其中，消费品制造业新出口订单指数较10月上升超过2个百分点。 在需求端带动下，制造业生产活动也呈现企稳态势。11月，制造业生 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Regulations - The People's Bank of China continues to enforce a prohibitive policy on virtual currencies, emphasizing that they do not hold the same legal status as fiat currencies and are considered illegal financial activities [1] - A new regulation has been introduced that eliminates the requirement for individuals to register the source of funds when withdrawing more than 50,000 yuan, allowing banks to assess risk before questioning clients [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in economic conditions [2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for November was recorded at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a contraction in the non-manufacturing sector [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Strategies - Major securities firms suggest that the market is experiencing a low-volatility slow bull trend, with a need for significant changes in domestic demand to unlock market potential [9] - Analysts recommend positioning for a potential year-end rally, focusing on sectors such as technology, resources, and consumer services, while also monitoring upcoming policy announcements [10][14] - The market is expected to maintain a cautious optimism ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, which may set the tone for future economic policies [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, although the manufacturing economic activity did not exceed expectations, there were still positive factors. The emerging industries' prosperity rebounded first, the inventory problem caused by supply - demand imbalance was continuously digested, and the price upward trend remained unchanged with a continuous repair expectation for next year. The impact of new policy - based financial instruments on the industry and market was still in the early stages, and the actual work volume needed further verification next year [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Demand Drags Production, and De - stocking Exceeds Re - stocking - The drag of previous supply - demand imbalance on production emerged. The production index was weak in the past two months, and the procurement volume was below the critical value for two consecutive months. The "new order index - production index" reached a peak in September [13]. - Manufacturing enterprises have been actively de - stocking for nearly half a year. The inventory growth rate was already at a historically low level, and the downward space was limited. Compared with previous inventory cycles, this cycle had two characteristics: the peak was much lower and the inventory state switched frequently at a low level. The active re - stocking period was short, and the active de - stocking period was long. This was favorable for the bond market [16]. 3.2 Differentiation between Traditional Manufacturing and Emerging Industries - Traditional manufacturing has been in a downturn since April, with PMI below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. However, emerging industries showed improvement since September. The EPMI index of emerging industries was above the boom - bust line for 3 consecutive months, and the BCI index of high - quality private enterprises also rose above the line, with sub - items such as corporate financing environment and investment forward - looking index improving significantly [19]. - The improvement in the prosperity of emerging industries boosted the employment market. The BCI corporate recruitment forward - looking index improved, and the "Internet unemployment benefit search index" decreased. The 500 billion yuan new policy - based financial instruments, fully invested by the end of October, supported over 2,300 projects with a total investment of about 7 trillion yuan, showing a strong pulling effect on emerging industries [19][25]. 3.3 Rare Contraction in Service Industry Prosperity - This month, the non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.6 points to 49.5, falling below the critical value for the first time excluding public health events. The construction industry was at the bottom, and the service industry was the main drag. The service industry PMI dropped 0.7 points to 49.5, which was a rare contraction. This was related to seasonal factors and the real - estate sales slump [5][26]. - Some industries in the service industry, such as railway transportation, telecommunications, and finance, were in a high - prosperity range, while real - estate and residential services were below the critical point [28][29].