午评：沪指半日涨0.34% 稀土永磁概念股集体大涨 智通财经7月18日电，市场早盘冲高回落，三大指数小幅上涨。沪深两市半日成交额1.02万亿，较上个 交易日放量1163亿。盘面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少，全市场超3000只个股下跌。从板块来看，稀 土永磁概念股集体大涨，华宏科技涨停。锂矿股持续活跃，盛新锂能涨停。军工股震荡走强，天秦装备 涨超10%。下跌方面，光伏概念股展开调整，亚玛顿跌超5%。板块方面，稀土永磁、锂矿、煤炭、军 工等板块涨幅居前，游戏、光伏、美容护理、消费电子等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.34%，深 成指涨0.3%，创业板指涨0.26%。 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 18 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天低开高走，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3516.83 | 0.37% | 13.05 | | | 深证成指 | 10873.62 | 1.43% | 152.81 | | | 沪深 300 | 4034.49 | 0.68% | 27.29 | | | 创业板 | 2269.33 | 1.75% | 39.13 | | | 科创 50 | 1005.65 | 0.80% | 8.02 | | | 北证 50 | 1428.11 | 0.86% | 12.13 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 2.74% ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share military industry sector has strengthened again, with Tianqin Equipment rising over 10%, following consecutive gains from Construction Industry, and other companies like Guankang Technology, High-Precision Infrared, Zhongwu Drone, 6912, and Aero Engine Power also experiencing increases [1] Group 1 - Tianqin Equipment's stock price increased by more than 10% [1] - Construction Industry has achieved consecutive gains [1] - Other companies in the military sector, including Guankang Technology, High-Precision Infrared, Zhongwu Drone, 6912, and Aero Engine Power, have also seen stock price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, with technology stocks playing a significant role in the rebound [1][2]. Market Outlook - The market is likely in a phase of consolidation before a breakout, with two potential paths: continuing the upward trend or consolidating before challenging previous highs [2]. - Three conditions are necessary for a direct challenge to the previous high of 3674 points: implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, continued global environment easing, and sustained increase in trading volume [2]. Sector Highlights - The A-share market in July is anticipated to be driven by event-based themes, with a high likelihood of sector rotation [3]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3]. 2. Robotics, with a shift from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, presenting opportunities in sensors and controllers [3]. 3. Semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 4. Military industry, with expectations of order recovery and signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports [3]. 5. Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to see a fundamental turning point in 2025 after a period of adjustment [3]. Market Review - The A-share market showed signs of stabilization and resumed an upward trend, with the ChiNext index rising over 1.7% [4]. - More than 3500 stocks rose, indicating a positive earning effect, with leading sectors including defense, telecommunications, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4].

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing active trading, with the China Securities Military Industry Index showing positive performance, and specific stocks like Construction Industry and Yingliu Co. hitting their daily limit up [1] - The Defense and Military ETF (512810) has seen an increase of 0.76% in its market price, with a trading volume exceeding 55 million yuan [2] - According to Shenwan Securities, the defense and military industry is entering an upward cycle, driven by domestic demand from military modernization and an expanding global military trade due to geopolitical changes, which is expected to enhance industry valuation [4] Group 2 - The defense and military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool that covers various sectors including commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, military AI, low-altitude economy, and large aircraft, making it suitable for investors looking to engage in the defense sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Citigroup upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market to "Overweight," with a year - end target of 25,000 for the Hang Seng Index and 4,200 for the CSI 300 Index [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets: Driven by strong growth in US retail sales data in June and a continuous decline in the number of initial jobless claims, the three major US stock indexes closed higher [2] - Domestic markets: The A - share market continues its structural market characteristics. The national defense and military industry sector leads the gains, highlighting the performance - driven main line. Sectors with performance support such as rare earth permanent magnets, biomedicine, and consumer electronics are expected to regain upward momentum based on fundamental advantages after a short - term technical correction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.68% to 4,034.49 points, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.23% to 2,744.26 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% to 6,082.46 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14% to 6,535.67 points [12] - **Transaction Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded to 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - **Charts**: Include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][13] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IH and IF contracts increased synchronously. The trading volume of IC and IM contracts decreased, while the open interest increased [1][16] - **Basis**: The basis of the current - month contracts basically converged. The report details the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [1][36][38] - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, including next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc., along with their changes [46][47] - **Charts**: Include charts of contract open interest, open - interest ratios, foreign - funded net open positions, basis, and inter - period spreads for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of discovering investment opportunities with a proactive attitude rather than merely relaying information [1] Macro News Summary - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the expansion of pilot programs in the telecommunications and healthcare sectors, while also cautiously expanding self-initiated openings in education and culture [4] - The central government has set new directions for urban development, focusing on urban renewal and real estate development [5] Industry Latest Developments - A record high for single order amounts has been achieved, indicating a potential acceleration in the commercialization of the low-altitude economy, with related stocks including Nanjing Julong (300644) and Yingboer (300681) [6] - The national maximum electricity load has reached a new historical high, suggesting continued positive performance for the electricity sector, with related stocks such as Shanghai Electric (600021) and Jinkong Electric (000767) [6] - A brain-computer interface technology developer conference is scheduled for August, which may catalyze related sectors, with stocks like Innovation Medical (002176) and Aipeng Medical (300753) being relevant [6] Company Focus - Chongda Technology (002815) is experiencing strong domestic and international order demand [7] - Guoxuan High-Tech (002074) has received EU battery regulation compliance certification for its 5MWh liquid-cooled energy storage system [7] - East Asia Machinery (301028) anticipates increased demand for air compressors and vacuum pumps due to accelerated domestic substitution processes [7] - Jinxin Technology (300252) has developed products compatible with Intel's next-generation platform Oak Stream (PCIE 6.0) [7] Market Review and Outlook - On July 17, the market experienced an overall upward trend, with the ChiNext Index leading gains. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.54 trillion, an increase of 97.3 billion from the previous trading day [8] - The report highlights several investment opportunities, including: 1. Technology innovation sectors such as robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy (digital currency), with a caution to avoid purely speculative stocks with high valuations [8] 2. Anti-involution sectors including photovoltaics, batteries, energy storage, new energy vehicles, building materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals [8] 3. Areas benefiting from consumption upgrades and policies, including innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer healthcare, equipment upgrades, smart homes, cross-border e-commerce, and industrial upgrades [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical importance of rare earth elements, particularly in the context of China's export restrictions and the implications for the U.S. high-tech and defense industries [3][5][12]. Group 1: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements are essential for various high-tech applications, including smartphones, electric vehicles, and military equipment, with China controlling approximately 70% of global production and 90% of processing capabilities [3][5]. - The lack of rare earth elements could severely impact major technology companies and military operations, leading to significant operational challenges [8][10]. Group 2: China's Export Restrictions - China has implemented strict export controls, reducing overseas sales by nearly 40% in 2023, citing environmental and technological reasons [3][5]. - The Chinese government views rare earths as a strategic resource to counter trade tensions and protect national security [5][12]. Group 3: U.S. Response and Challenges - The U.S. has begun extensive recycling initiatives to recover rare earth elements from electronic waste, with significant investments in projects aimed at reducing dependency on Chinese supplies [7][10]. - Despite these efforts, the recycling rate remains below 10%, and the costs associated with recycling are significantly higher than importing raw materials from China [10][12]. Group 4: Economic and Political Implications - The U.S. high-tech sector faces potential setbacks, with companies like Tesla and Apple experiencing increased costs and supply chain disruptions due to the lack of access to Chinese rare earths [8][10]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with other countries like South Korea and Japan investing in alternative sources and materials, potentially diminishing U.S. technological leadership [12].

- The report discusses the market performance of various indices, highlighting that the CSI 1000 index performed well with a 1.14% increase, while the SSE 50 index rose by 0.12%[6] - The report notes that the defense, communications, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and steel industries performed well, with returns of 3.06%, 2.45%, 2.14%, 1.75%, and 1.55%, respectively[8] - The report mentions that the ETF with the highest premium on July 16, 2025, was the Online Consumption ETF with a premium of 0.95%, while the ETF with the highest discount was the Penghua GEM New Energy ETF with a discount of 0.97%[23]

Group 1 - A-shares are expected to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with the market transitioning from a "weight-based" to a "theme-based" approach, focusing on structural opportunities in recent hot sectors [2] - The three major A-share indices closed higher, with the ChiNext index showing strong performance, while sectors like computing hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals led the gains [2] - Long-term capital inflow is accelerating, with ETF sizes steadily increasing and insurance funds providing significant support to the market [3] Group 2 - The domestic economy is stabilizing, and liquidity is being released through rate cuts, which may enhance market activity in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] - The new regulations in the securities industry are expected to boost revenue growth for brokerage firms, while long-term insurance policies may improve investment returns and valuations [3] - The market is currently in a new buying window, with improved investor sentiment and incoming capital, although it faces resistance at higher levels [2]