ijis 加安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/12 | | | 指标 | 7/10 | 8/4 | 8/7 | 8/8 | 8/11 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11615 | 11395 | 11535 | 11515 | 11785 | 270 | 390 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 27306 | 31806 | 26456 | 25625 | 28088 | 2463 | -3718 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 103683 | 55081 | 60111 | 41370 | 138315 | 96945 | 83234 | | | | 仓単数量 | 8600 | 10540 | 10310 | 10310 | 10470 | 160 | -70 | | | | 虚实比 | 15.88 | 15.09 | 12.83 | 12.43 | 13.41 | 1 | -2 | | | | 顺丁基差 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bearish Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoint of the Report - International crude oil prices have been declining, and the price of BR (Butadiene Rubber) has been consolidating. The supply of butadiene is affected by various factors such as device shutdowns and restarts, and the demand for rubber tires is relatively stable. The inventory of butadiene and BR has increased, and the profit of the rubber industry is under pressure. Geopolitical factors also have a negative impact on the market. Overall, the market for butadiene rubber is expected to be bearish with oscillations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton this period. As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton [4] 2. Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 102,500 tons (-0.87%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Dongming Petrochemical were shut down, while some devices were restarted. The overall production decreased [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: In July, some butadiene rubber devices were shut down, and some were restarted. It is expected that the production of butadiene rubber will continue to increase in August [3] 3. Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel Tires**: The replacement market price has no obvious adjustment this period. Some brands launched special - price patterns at the beginning of the month, and the actual market price is stable [3] - **All - steel Tires**: In August, the market price is mostly stable. Some brands planned to raise prices, but other enterprises did not follow up. The economic tire specifications are in short supply, and the inventory of mid - to high - end products is relatively sufficient [3] 4. Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.35%. The overall inventory of enterprises has little fluctuation, and there is no obvious inventory pressure recently [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly this period [3] 5. Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, and Profit Analysis - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 115 yuan/ton, in East China is 35 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,035 yuan/ton (41.33%), the NR - BR spread is 890 yuan/ton (23.61%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.97% [3] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation and carbon four extraction, as well as the production profit and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber, are all under pressure [3] 6. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which leads to a loose supply of crude oil and a weak demand in the refined oil market. International oil and gas prices are oscillating downward. Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on Indian goods exported to the US, and the Sino - US tariff negotiation is approaching [3] 7. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: The maintenance of devices in Shandong and South China has a positive impact on the supply price of butadiene, but the short - term price change is small. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber remain the same, with traders reducing inventory and factories increasing inventory. The overall inventory level changes little, and the market trading volume is average [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is expected to be oscillating. For arbitrage, pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to be concerned about include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are supportive, and it operates within the valuation range. The short - term market is slightly bullish, while the medium - term remains within the fundamental valuation range [2][4]. - The price of butadiene is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a 5.93% month - on - month decrease, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.17%, a 4.29 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. Some plants such as Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical carried out short - term maintenance. Next week, the plants of Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda are expected to restart, and the output is expected to increase [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires slightly decreased, while that of all - steel tires slightly increased. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will vary. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires may continue to decline slightly, while that of all - steel tires is expected to increase. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 700 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 6, 2025 (Week 32), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.38% month - on - month increase. Although some production plants carried out short - term maintenance this week, the downstream was waiting for price drops, and the price of arbitrage resources was relatively low, resulting in slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4]. 3.1.4 Valuation and Viewpoint - In the short term, it is slightly bullish, and in the medium term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to rise slightly. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish with upper pressure at 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: No relevant strategy. - Inter - variety: The price difference between NR - BR is expected to narrow in the short term [4]. 3.2 Butadiene Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Supply - Some enterprises carried out plant maintenance this week, and the domestic butadiene supply decreased. The output was 102,500 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.87% decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%, a 0.21% month - on - month decline [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, and the demand for butadiene maintained a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained stable [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 8.71% compared to last week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.50%, while the inventory of sample ports increased by 41.35% due to the arrival of imported vessels. As of August 6, the inventory at East China ports was about 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared to the previous period [5]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - The price is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. The overall arrival volume of butadiene is expected to be low, and the port price may remain resilient. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries [10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Supply of Butadiene Rubber - Output: The output and operating rate data of butadiene rubber are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are detailed [34][35]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data of butadiene rubber are provided [37][38][39]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of butadiene rubber are presented [41][42]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory data of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are provided [46][48]. 3.4.2 Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire: The inventory and operating rate data of semi - steel and all - steel tires in Shandong Province are presented [50][51].

Group 1: Report Summary - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 12,000 in the short - term [8] - This week, the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong market stopped falling and consolidated, with a range of 1,1300 - 1,1800 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton [9] - In the near future, the cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the restart of maintenance devices. There are differences in the negotiation focus between spot traders and downstream. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly this week. Next week, the supply is expected to change little, the inventory of producers is expected to decline slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase [9] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly, and in the short - term, it may be mainly adjusted slightly with limited overall fluctuation [9] Group 2: Futures Market - This week, the price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.52% [13] - As of August 8th, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [20] - As of August 8th, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,490 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared with last week [23] Group 3: Spot Market - As of August 7th, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [27] - As of August 7th, the basis of butadiene rubber was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton compared with last week [27] Group 4: Upstream Market - As of August 7th, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 571 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.88 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, the same as last week [31] - As of August 8th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.76%, a decrease of 0.21% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared with last week [35] Group 5: Industry Situation - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month. As of August 7th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 68.17%, a decrease of 4.29% compared with last week [39] - As of August 7th, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 606 yuan/ton, a decrease of 229 yuan/ton compared with last week [42] - As of August 7th, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,440 tons, an increase of 120 tons compared with last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons compared with last week; the inventory of traders was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons compared with last week [46] Group 6: Downstream Market - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [49] - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% month - on - month and 7.31% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative tire export volume was 4,121,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [52]

Price and Market Overview - As of August 7, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9375 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1090 USD/ton, with no change [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11550 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, up by 3% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, up by 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 56.97 million units, down by 1.1% month-on-month but up by 7.8% year-on-year [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 12.75 million units, up by 1% month-on-month and up by 5.1% year-on-year [2] - As of August 7, the operating rate of the butadiene industry is 69.8%, down by 0.3% [2] - The operating rate of high-styrene butadiene rubber is 68.2%, down by 5.9% [2] - The operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers is 69.7%, down by 0.4% [2] - The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers is 60.1%, up by 1.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 6, the port inventory of butadiene is 14,700 tons, up by 4,300 tons [3] - The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber is 24,150 tons, up by 350 tons, a 1.5% increase [3] - The inventory of traders is 7,290 tons, down by 230 tons, a 3.1% decrease [3] Market Insights - As of August 7, the supply of butadiene has not increased as expected, leading to a stable price, while natural rubber prices have strengthened, boosting BR prices [5] - The main contract for synthetic rubber BR2509 closed at 11,535 CNY/ton, with a 0.22% increase compared to the previous settlement price [5] - Despite some butadiene production facilities restarting, there are also ongoing maintenance activities, leading to a slight decrease in domestic production [5] - The expected increase in butadiene imports in August may not meet expectations due to shipping schedules concentrated in the latter half of the month [5] - The supply side shows a mix of restarts and short-term shutdowns, with limited inventory reduction expected for styrene-butadiene rubber [5] - Demand for semi-steel tires remains high, with increasing pressure on both domestic and export sales, making it challenging to raise operating rates [5] - Overall, while cost support remains, the supply-demand balance for BR is expected to be loose, leading to short-term fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the gradual restart of maintenance devices, and the negotiation focus of spot - end traders and downstream is divergent. This week, the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly. Next week, with both device maintenance and restart, the supply is expected to change little. Under the shipping pressure, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to decline slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The 509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,700 yuan/ton in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,535 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract is 26,456 (yuan/ton, the unit seems inconsistent here, might be a mistake in the original text), down 1,631; the 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions are between 11,550 - 11,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 66.89 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.35 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 581.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton, down 0.81 dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 69.97%, down 0.03 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, down 5,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.2%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 72.46%, up 4.83 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 23,800 tons, down 1,050 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 7,520 tons, up 50 tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,400 tons, up 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber export volume is 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume is 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber import volume is 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume is 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Release Date: August 4, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] Group 2: BR Main Contract Overview - Closing Price of Main Contract: On August 1st, it was 11,455, a daily decrease of 40 and a monthly decrease of 960 compared to July 2nd [3] - Open Interest of Main Contract: On August 1st, it was 33,939, a daily decrease of 881 and a monthly decrease of 15,372 compared to July 2nd [3] - Trading Volume of Main Contract: On August 1st, it was 73,266, a daily decrease of 19,757 and a monthly decrease of 87,525 compared to July 2nd [3] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On August 1st, it was 10,340, with no daily change and an increase of 500 compared to July 2nd [3] - Virtual-to-Physical Ratio: On August 1st, it was 16.41, with no daily change and a decrease of 9 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 3: Basis and Spread - Butadiene Rubber Basis: On August 1st, the butadiene rubber basis was 145, a daily decrease of 60 and an increase of 360 compared to July 2nd [3] - Butadiene Rubber Basis (Two Oil Companies): On August 1st, it was 345, a daily increase of 40 and an increase of 360 compared to July 2nd [3] - Styrene-Butadiene Rubber Basis: On August 1st, it was 495, a daily decrease of 60 and an increase of 460 compared to July 2nd [3] - August - September Spread: On August 1st, it was -100, a daily decrease of 100 and an increase of 82 compared to July 2nd [3] - September - October Spread: On August 1st, it was 10, a daily decrease of 5 and a decrease of 5 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 4: Spot Price - Shandong Market Price: On August 1st, it was 11,600, a daily decrease of 100 and a decrease of 600 compared to July 2nd [3] - Chuanhua Market Price: On August 1st, it was 11,450, with no daily change and a decrease of 650 compared to July 2nd [3] - Qilu Factory Price: On August 1st, it was 11,800, with no daily change and a decrease of 600 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 5: Processing and Import/Export Profits - Spot Processing Profit: On August 1st, it was 16, a daily decrease of 151 and a decrease of 232 compared to July 2nd [3] - Futures Processing Profit: On August 1st, it was -129, a daily decrease of 91 and a decrease of 425 compared to July 2nd [3] - Import Profit: On August 1st, it was -84,921, a daily decrease of 96 and an increase of 3,829 compared to July 2nd [3] - Export Profit: On August 1st, it was -125, a daily increase of 87 and an increase of 746 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 6: Butadiene (BD) Information - Market Prices: Shandong market price on August 1st was 9,200, a daily increase of 50 and a decrease of 525 compared to July 2nd; Jiangsu market price was 9,200, with no daily change and a decrease of 550 compared to July 2nd; Yangzi factory price was 9,200, a daily decrease of 200 and a decrease of 500 compared to July 2nd [3] - CFR China: On August 1st, it was 1,080, a daily decrease of 10 and a decrease of 20 compared to July 2nd [3] - Processing Profits: Carbon tetrachloride extraction profit was not available on August 1st; butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 176, with no daily change and a decrease of 690 compared to July 2nd [3] - Import and Export Profits: Import profit on August 1st was 263, a daily increase of 82 and a decrease of 427 compared to July 2nd; export profit was -954, with no daily change and an increase of 582 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 7: Downstream Profits - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit: On August 1st, it was -129, a daily decrease of 91 and a decrease of 425 compared to July 2nd [3] - Styrene-Butadiene Rubber Production Profit: On August 1st, it was 900, a daily increase of 150 and no change compared to July 2nd [3] - ABS Production Profit: Data was not available on August 1st [3] - SBS Production Profit (791 - H): On August 1st, it was 1,100, a daily increase of 170 and an increase of 380 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 8: Inter - and Intra - Variety Spreads - RU - BR Spread: On August 1st, it was -19,629, a daily increase of 631 and an increase of 14,097 compared to July 2nd [3] - NR - BR Spread: On August 1st, it was -21,764, a daily increase of 781 and an increase of 14,227 compared to July 2nd [3] - Thai Mixed - Butadiene Rubber Spread: On August 1st, it was 2,450, a daily decrease of 100 and a decrease of 450 compared to July 2nd [3] - 3L - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Spread: On August 1st, it was 2,500, a daily decrease of 100 and a decrease of 250 compared to July 2nd [3] - Butadiene Rubber Standard - Non - Standard Spread: On August 1st, it was 250, a daily decrease of 50 and no change compared to July 2nd [3] - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 - 1712 Spread: On August 1st, it was 1,150, with no daily change and no change compared to July 2nd [3]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the synthetic rubber industry dated August 4, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View - Recently, the support from the cost and supply side has weakened. Both the synthetic rubber futures and the mainstream supply prices have shown a rapid rise and then a fall. Arbitrageurs have actively entered the market, but the downstream terminal procurement has been negative. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of trading enterprises has slightly increased. There are short - term shutdown and maintenance expectations for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical this week, and the Shandong Yihua butadiene rubber plant is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but the inventory of production enterprises may still increase under the weak demand expectation. The overall capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The short - term of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,700 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,395 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the position of the main contract is 31,806 lots, down 2,133 lots. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, up 200 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 205 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of Brent crude oil is 69.67 dollars/barrel, down 2.86 dollars; the price of WTI crude oil is 67.33 dollars/barrel, down 1.93 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 820 dollars/ton, down 7.12 dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 603.88 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.97%, down 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, down 5,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 48.2%, up 0.04 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 72.46%, up 4.83 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,800 tons, down 1,050 tons; the trader's inventory is 7,520 tons, up 50 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply has weakened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly this week due to the maintenance of individual semi - steel tire enterprises at the end of last month, and that of all - steel tires decreased due to the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent, but there are also individual enterprises planning maintenance at the beginning of the month. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - **Market Review**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber dropped from a high level this week, with the spot price fluctuating in the range of 11,400 - 12,300 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales decreased by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply has weakened recently. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased overall, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, the supply is expected to decrease slightly, but the inventory of production enterprises may still increase under the weak demand expectation. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 7.73% [12]. - As of August 1, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [19]. - As of August 1, the warehouse receipt of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with last week [22]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 31, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 31, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - As of July 31, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 611 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.5 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week [31]. - As of August 1, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.97%, an increase of 0.03% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons compared with last week [34]. - **Production and Utilization** - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month [38]. - As of July 31, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 72.46%, an increase of 4.83% compared with last week [38]. - **Production Profit** - As of July 31, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton compared with last week [41]. - **Inventory** - As of August 1, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,320 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week [45]. - As of August 1, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons compared with last week [45]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Tire Capacity Utilization** - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared with the same period last year [48]. - **Tire Exports** - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 7.31% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4.34% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of small passenger car tires was 279,100 tons, a decrease of 3.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 11.76% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of small passenger car tires was 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative increase of 1.62% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of truck and bus tires was 407,200 tons, a decrease of 7.00% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 5.11% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative increase of 5.34% compared with the same period last year [51].