Core Viewpoint - The new materials sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory due to increasing demand from China's manufacturing industry and the integration of technologies like artificial intelligence, despite a recent decline in the new materials index's valuation [1][4]. Summary by Category Market Performance - As of April 29, 2025, the new materials index decreased by 4.22%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.89%, resulting in a 1.33 percentage point lag [2]. - The new materials index ranked 23rd among 30 major industry sectors in terms of performance [2]. Price Trends - Basic metal prices saw a general decline in April 2025, with notable decreases in copper (-3.52%), aluminum (-2.90%), lead (-2.96%), zinc (-4.51%), tin (-9.02%), and nickel (-4.74%) [2]. - Rare gas prices experienced slight declines in April 2025, with helium priced at 655 RMB per bottle (-0.27%), xenon at 27,000 RMB per cubic meter (-3.99%), neon at 120 RMB per cubic meter (-4.00%), and krypton at 275 RMB per cubic meter (-8.92%) [3]. Export Data - In March 2025, exports of superhard materials and products increased by 32.22% year-on-year, totaling 14,000 tons, while export revenue decreased by 9.35% to 14.4 million USD [3]. - The average export price for superhard materials fell by 31.44% to 10.35 USD per kilogram [3]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of the new materials index as of April 29, 2025, was 22.94, reflecting an 11.57% decrease from the previous month and positioning it at the 53.90 percentile of historical valuations since 2022, indicating a reasonable valuation for the sector [1][4]. Future Outlook - The new materials sector is anticipated to enter a prosperous cycle driven by domestic demand recovery and the push for domestic alternatives, maintaining an investment rating of "stronger than the market" [1][4].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, ranking 20th among sectors [13] 2. Prices - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also faced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] 3. Inventory - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2,489 tons, aluminum down 8,027 tons, zinc down 4,552 tons, lead down 4,721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4603.44, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also experienced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2489 tons, aluminum down 8027 tons, zinc down 4552 tons, lead down 4721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core logic for the long - term rise of gold (weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations) remains solid. Gold is expected to maintain a structural bull market. Short - term price adjustments are normal rather than a trend reversal, and gold has long - term allocation value [3]. - The US economy shows signs of potential stagflation, with issues such as a consumer confidence decline, inflation risks, and uncertainties in the labor market. The economic recovery momentum in Europe and the United States has weakened, especially in the service industry [19][33]. - The Chinese economy in April saw a decline in the PMI index, a slowdown in real - estate recovery, an increase in industrial enterprise profits, and a significant growth in exports in March, but there are still many challenges [60][67][74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asset Price Logic Differentiation - Bond market: The US Treasury yields have been affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude. The yields of Chinese government bonds have continued to decline, reflecting the expectation of loose monetary policy and the pressure of economic slowdown. The yields of Japanese government bonds are still loose under the YCC policy, and the British government bond yields are under pressure from trade tensions [9][13]. - Commodity market: Black commodities are generally weak, chemicals are in a weak - shock situation, non - ferrous metals are strong, gold has significant fluctuations, and agricultural products have different trends [16]. 2. Overseas Tariff Negotiations Are Repeated, and Monetary Expectations Are Loose - US economy: In April 2025, the US consumer market was in a "polarized" state. The inflation rate in March showed different trends, and the core inflation was sticky. The manufacturing and service industries showed mixed performance, the labor market had a "strong employment but weak confidence" feature, and the Fed's balance sheet was shrinking, with internal differences on the timing of interest rate cuts [19][24][33][36]. - Other countries' economies: Inflation rates in various countries are at different levels, and the manufacturing and service industries in Europe are under pressure. There are also differences in the monetary policies of central banks in various countries [22][30][33]. - Geopolitical conflicts: Multiple geopolitical conflicts have led to turmoil in the energy market, a refugee crisis, and intensified great - power games. There are also differences and progress in tariff negotiations among different regions [48][50]. 3. China's PMI Data Declines, and Policies Are Steady - PMI data: In April 2025, both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined. The supply and demand sides, external demand, and prices all showed weakening trends [60]. - Investment: From January to March 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased, with new and old infrastructure and manufacturing investment growing. The real - estate investment decline has converged, and the real - estate land market is not hot [63][67][87]. - Consumption: In the first quarter of 2025, domestic consumption showed a stable increase, with different performances in different fields [70]. - Exports: In March 2025, exports increased significantly, but there are potential risks in the future [74][77]. - Industrial enterprise profits: From January to March 2025, the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, but the profit margin was low, and the debt ratio was high [82]. 4. Some Risk - Aversion Sentiment Subsides, and Gold Prices Adjust Significantly - Gold market: In the week of April 25, 2025, the global gold market experienced a significant correction. The proportion of non - commercial long positions in gold decreased, the holdings of gold ETF funds changed, and the dollar rose while the US Treasury yields fell [107][110][113]. - Supply and demand of gold and silver: In the first quarter of 2025, the net inflow of global physical gold ETFs reached a new high since the first quarter of 2022. The global silver market is in a "tight balance" state, with industrial demand supporting the fundamentals [117][119]. - Outlook for gold: Gold has entered a bull market cycle driven by the weakening of the US dollar credit, risk - aversion demand, and central - bank gold purchases. The medium - and long - term upward trend is clear, but there may be short - term fluctuations [121][122].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: Risk preference is rising [2] - Silver: Stabilizing and rebounding [2] - Copper: Decreasing inventory supports prices [2] - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Alumina: Significantly declining [2] - Zinc: Strong current situation but weak expectations, short - term sideways movement [2] - Lead: Weak demand, facing upward pressure [2] - Nickel: The upside and downside spaces are converging, nickel prices may fluctuate in a narrow range [2] - Stainless steel: Spot prices are falling to correct the basis, with cost and negative feedback on the disk in a game [2] - Tin: Slightly recovering [2] - Industrial silicon: The disk is weakly oscillating [2] - Polysilicon: Registered warehouse receipts are slightly increasing [2] - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts are continuously increasing, and the disk is under pressure [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 785.14 with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 785.02 with a decrease of 0.29%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 8215 with a daily increase of 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 8226.00 with an increase of 0.12%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of Comex gold decreased by 86,169 ounces, while the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 161,950 ounces [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,600 with a daily increase of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 77740 with an increase of 0.18%. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 2,842 tons, and the inventory of LME copper decreased by 300 tons. The LME copper cash - 3M spread and some spot spreads changed [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India may be among the first to sign a trade agreement with the US. US economic data is poor. China's March 2025 scrap copper imports decreased. Peru's Antamina mine stopped work due to an accident. The output of Chile's Codelco increased slightly in Q1. The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. 3.3 Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 19930, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2766. The trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads of aluminum and alumina contracts changed. The processing fees of aluminum rods in some regions changed slightly [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both aluminum and alumina have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. 3.4 Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22550 with a daily increase of 0.13%. The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 427 tons, and the inventory of LME zinc decreased by 1775 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [15]. - **News**: US economic data is poor, the US dollar index rebounded [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. 3.5 Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16895 with a decrease of 0.65%. The inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 427 tons, and the inventory of LME lead decreased by 3750 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [18]. - **News**: The US trade agreement hope boosted the US stock market [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [19]. 3.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 124,180, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,720. The trading volume, positions, and spreads of nickel and stainless - steel contracts changed. The production capacity of an Indonesian nickel - iron project is recovering, and Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates of nickel products [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]. 3.7 Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 261,560 with a daily increase of 0.38%. The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 116 tons, and the inventory of LME tin decreased by 180 tons. Some spot prices and spreads changed [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Si2506 was 8,540, and the closing price of PS2506 was 37,320. The trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts changed. The prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain changed [29]. - **News**: Longi Green Energy's 12GW high - efficiency BC battery project in Xi'an is progressing [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [31]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of 2507 and 2509 contracts of lithium carbonate decreased. Warehouse receipts increased. The prices of raw materials and lithium salts decreased. Some spreads and premiums changed [33]. - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Some listed battery companies announced their Q1 results [33][35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35]

| 黄金：风险偏好回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：寻底继续 | 6 | | 锌：区间整理 | 8 | | 铅：窄幅震荡 | 9 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价或窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修基差，成本与负反馈盘面博弈 | 10 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 12 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势震荡 | 14 | | 多晶硅：消息面发酵，盘面亦偏弱 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：成本支撑趋弱，关注高基差下采买需求 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年04月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 黄金：风险偏好回升 白银：企稳反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z ...

周内(4月21日至4月25日)，大宗商品涨跌不一，基本金属、黑色系板块领涨，航运板块领跌。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨1.51%、原油上涨1.10%，碳酸锂下跌2.85%；黑 色系板块，铁矿石周上涨1.43%、焦煤上涨0.37%；基本金属板块，沪镍周上涨0.05%、沪锌上涨 3.17%、沪铜上涨1.71%；农产品板块，棕榈油周上涨3.00%、豆粕上涨0.33%、生猪下跌2.18%。航运板 块，集运欧线周下跌10.95%。交易行情热点 热点一：美联储独立性受影响，黄金收出高位十字星 黄金本周盘中价格创出新高，COMEX黄金一度突破3500美元盎司关口，随后快速回落，COMEX黄金 和伦敦金周线均收出十字星。具体来看，COMEX黄金下跌0.33%，报3330.2美元/盎司；伦敦金下跌 0.17%，报3318.62美元/盎司。 据南华期货（603093）统计：长线基金持仓看，上周SPDR黄金ETF持仓周减6吨至946.3；iShares白银 ETF持仓周减164.1吨至13956吨。短线基金持仓看，根据截至4月22日的CFTC持仓报告，黄金非商业净 多头寸周减26832张至175378张，其中 ...

1. Overnight Market Trends International Market - International oil prices rose across the board, with the June contract of US crude up 3.11% at $63.75 per barrel and the June contract of Brent crude up 2.75% at $67.66 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3341.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.32% at $32.55 per ounce [2]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME lead up 1.23% at $1927.50 per ton, LME tin up 1.16% at $31320.00 per ton, etc., while LME aluminum fell 0.15% at $2385.00 per ton [2]. - CBOT agricultural product futures contracts were mixed, with soybean futures down 0.33% at 1046.75 cents per bushel, corn futures down 0.25% at 490.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up 0.09% at 561.5 cents per bushel [2]. Domestic Market - Domestic commodity futures night - trading generally closed down. Energy and chemical products mostly fell, while crude oil rose 3.4% and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.76%. Black - series products all fell. Agricultural products and base metals were mixed [3]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - Trump expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates for the seventh time and criticizes Fed Chairman Powell for being "too late" and making wrong decisions, calling for Fed rate cuts [6]. - China's GDP in Q1 2025 grew 5.4% year - on - year, with the primary industry up 3.5%, the secondary industry up 5.9%, and the tertiary industry up 5.3% [6]. - The G20 Development Working Group's second meeting was held, with China clarifying its stance on the US "reciprocal tariffs" and many parties calling for maintaining the multilateral trading system [7]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of policy timing and intensity, suggesting early and forceful policy actions [7]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, and also cut other key rates, bringing borrowing costs to the lowest since early 2023 [7]. - Many institutions predict that macro - stimulus policies may be intensified in Q2, and it is an important observation window for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The production of the float glass industry was basically stable, with the average operating rate at 75.66% (up 0.24% month - on - month) and the average capacity utilization rate at 79.03% (unchanged month - on - month). The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly [10]. - Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel were cut by 480 yuan and 465 yuan per ton respectively [10]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose to a 17 - week high, light distillate oil inventory fell to a 19 - week low, and middle distillate oil inventory rose to a 3 - week high [10]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly, with light soda ash inventory up and heavy soda ash inventory down [11]. Metal Futures - A zinc smelter in Southwest China postponed its maintenance plan to late May, and a large die - casting zinc alloy factory in East China suspended raw material procurement due to high inventory [13]. - Switzerland's gold exports to the US in March decreased by 32%, and the total gold exports decreased by 27% month - on - month, while imports increased by 4% [13]. - Peru's copper production in February increased slightly year - on - year, and it is expected to rebound by 2% - 4% in 2025 [15]. - Alphamin Resources restarted tin production at its Bisie mine in the DRC [15]. Black - series Futures - HeSteel Group set the April silicon - manganese price at 5950 yuan/ton, with an increase in procurement volume [17]. - Rebar apparent demand increased for the ninth consecutive week, factory inventory and production decreased, and social inventory decreased for the sixth consecutive week [17]. - The export of iron ore and spodumene concentrate from Port Hedland in March increased compared to February [17]. - The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased to a 3 - month high, with an increase in daily coal production and inventory [18]. Agricultural Futures - As of April 17, the grain - selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces and 7 major producing provinces was faster than the same period last year [21]. - The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased [21]. - As of the end of March, textile enterprises' cotton inventory increased, with 35% of enterprises increasing inventory [21]. - The sugar - cane crushing season in Maharashtra, India is coming to an end, with lower sugar recovery rate than last year [21]. - Brazil's 2024/2025 sugar - cane and sugar production forecasts were adjusted slightly [22]. - Abiove raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025 soybean exports to a record high and lowered the estimated ending inventory [22]. - US soybean export net sales in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 met or exceeded market expectations [24]. - The IGC estimated that the global soybean production in 2025/26 would increase, trade volume would decrease, and consumption would increase [24]. 3. Financial Market Financial Sector - Six departments including the central bank issued guidelines on cross - border data flow in the financial industry [26]. - The Securities Association of China drafted an evaluation method for securities companies in promoting financial development [26]. - 28 wealth management companies' equity - related asset scale at the end of 2024 was relatively small [26]. - The number of public fund managers reached a new high [26]. Real Estate Market - Qingdao launched a "trade - in" housing program, planning to acquire over 1200 second - hand houses [27]. Industrial Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched an energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnosis service for high - energy - consuming industries [28]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an advertising market rectification campaign [28]. - The Ministry of Commerce continued to impose anti - dumping duties on Japanese electrolytic capacitor paper for 5 years [29]. - National railway passenger volume in Q1 reached a record high [30]. - The comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in March was above the warning line [31]. - Zhejiang launched a cross - border e - commerce market expansion action [32]. - A seminar on the "Product Digital Passport" is to be held, and related achievements will be released [32]. Overseas Market - Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates and believed Powell would leave if asked [34]. - The central banks of South Korea, Ukraine, Turkey, and Egypt made different interest - rate decisions [35][36][37][41]. - US economic data including initial jobless claims, manufacturing index, and housing starts showed mixed performance [38][39]. - Germany's March PPI decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [40]. - Switzerland's trade surplus in March increased [42]. - Australia's unemployment rate remained stable in March, and employment increased [44]. International Stock Market - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling [45]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun visited Beijing and expressed the hope to continue cooperation with China [46]. - Apple's CEO Cook had a private talk about iPhone price hikes [47]. - Blackstone Group's Q1 revenue and net profit decreased compared to the previous year [48]. - Hermès' Q1 revenue was slightly lower than expected, and it plans to raise prices in the US [49]. - UnitedHealth Group's Q1 revenue and profit increased significantly, but adjusted EPS forecast for 2025 was lowered [49]. - ASML expects strong performance in the Chinese market and has no plan to build a factory in the US [50]. - The "Stargate" AI project led by OpenAI and SoftBank is considering investing in the UK [51]. - Ford Motor recalled 24,655 vehicles in the US due to safety issues [53]. - Netflix's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations [54]. Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures night - trading generally closed down, with some energy and chemical products falling and some rising [55]. - Domestic refined oil prices had the fourth cut this year, with the largest decline in nearly three years [56]. - Asia's Q1 cocoa processing volume decreased year - on - year [57]. - BHP Billiton's expected Q3 copper production and annual production guidance were announced [58]. - US EIA natural gas inventory increased less than expected last week [59]. - The price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable [60]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, ending a two - day decline [61]. Bond Market - The bond market weakened, with treasury bond futures falling and bond yields rising. The central bank may provide liquidity support [63]. - Convertible bond indexes rose slightly, with some individual bonds having significant price changes [64]. - There were major events in the bond market, including bond redemptions, debt defaults, and full bond buy - backs [64]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted upwards [65]. - The RMB's share in global payments in March was 4.13%, slightly lower than the previous value [66].

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 4 月 17 日星期四 | | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 | 贵金属 | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 【市场回顾】 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因贸易紧张局势升级，伦敦金延续创记录涨势，将历史新高刷 | | | 新至 3350 美元，日内暴涨超 100 美元，最终收涨 3.06%，报 3350.03 美元/盎司；今晨 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 高开后则将历史新高刷至 3357.92 美元。伦敦银收涨 1.34%，报 32.83 美元/盎司。受外 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 2.62%，报 792.56 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 1.14%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021675 | 8273 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数再度下行，并一度跌至 99 美元附近，最终收跌 0.83%，报 | | 研究员：陈婧 FRM | 99.38。 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is testing its previous high, and silver is stabilizing and rebounding [2][4]. - For copper, inventory increase restricts price recovery [2][9]. - Aluminum shows a slightly bullish and oscillating trend, while alumina prices are under pressure [2][12]. - Zinc is under short - term pressure [2][15]. - Lead is trading in a range [2][18]. - Nickel's fundamentals provide short - term support, and nickel prices are firm; for stainless steel, cost may provide bottom support, but negative feedback expectations exert pressure [2][20]. - Tin is slightly recovering [2][24]. - The industrial silicon futures price is testing cost support, and for polysilicon, delivery resources may be limited, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [2][28][29]. - Lithium carbonate shows a strengthening monthly spread and continues its oscillating trend [2][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals**: Gold and silver prices showed significant fluctuations. For example, Comex gold 2504 had a 3.66% daily increase, and silver T + D had a 1.12% daily increase. Trading volumes and open interests also changed, with Comex gold 2504's trading volume increasing by 132,270 and Comex silver 2504's trading volume increasing by 24,010 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 0 [7]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamentals**: Copper prices showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai copper main contract down 0.80% during the day and up 1.10% at night. Inventory increased, with Shanghai copper inventory rising by 9,135 tons and LME copper inventory rising by 3,775 tons [9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [11]. 3.3 Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum prices showed an oscillating and slightly bullish trend, while alumina prices were under pressure. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract's closing price was 19,545 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai alumina main contract's closing price was 2,815 yuan/ton. Inventory and other indicators also changed [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, and alumina trend intensity is 0 [14]. 3.4 Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Zinc prices were under short - term pressure. The Shanghai zinc main contract's closing price decreased by 1.81%. Inventory increased significantly, with LME zinc inventory rising by 78,525 tons [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [16]. 3.5 Lead - **Fundamentals**: Lead prices were trading in a range. The Shanghai lead main contract's closing price decreased by 1.01%. Inventory changes were mixed, with Shanghai lead futures inventory decreasing by 401 tons and LME lead inventory increasing by 17,575 tons [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. 3.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel prices were firm, and stainless steel prices were affected by cost and negative feedback expectations. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract's closing price was 124,140 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract's closing price was 12,820 yuan/ton [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [23]. 3.7 Tin - **Fundamentals**: Tin prices were slightly recovering. The Shanghai tin main contract's closing price decreased by 1.48% during the day and 0.47% at night. Inventory decreased, with Shanghai tin inventory decreasing by 74 tons [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [27]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The industrial silicon futures price is testing cost support, and polysilicon delivery resources may be limited. For example, the Si2505 contract's closing price was 9,020 yuan/ton, and the PS2506 contract's closing price was 40,265 yuan/ton [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is - 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [31]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: Lithium carbonate shows a strengthening monthly spread and continues its oscillating trend. For example, the 2505 contract's closing price was 70,420 yuan/ton, and the 2507 contract's closing price was 70,380 yuan/ton [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [37].