Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index [2][4]. Core Insights - Urban renewal is anticipated to accelerate, with a focus on local construction and consumer building materials, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing existing building utilization and improving urban infrastructure [3][4]. - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from increased orders related to urban renewal projects, particularly in waterproof materials, coatings, and piping [3][4]. Summary by Sections Cement - The national average cement price decreased by 1.1% last week, with regional price changes ranging from a drop of 10-30 CNY/ton in North, East, and Central South China, while prices in Liaoning and Henan increased by 20 CNY/ton. Demand showed a slight increase week-on-week but remains 6-7% lower year-on-year [3][22]. Glass - The float glass market continued to show weakness, with an average price of 1306.73 CNY/ton, down 0.82% from the previous week. Demand remains weak, and supply is stable with a production capacity utilization rate of 80.08% [3][35]. Fiberglass - The price of non-alkali fiberglass remained stable, with mainstream prices for 2400tex ranging from 3500-3800 CNY/ton, averaging 3735.25 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [3][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders, particularly those benefiting from second-hand housing and renovation demand, recommending companies such as Sanke Tree, Beixin Building Materials, and others [4]. - For the cement and fiberglass sectors, companies like Anhui Conch Cement and China Jushi are highlighted for their potential recovery in performance [4].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in tariffs is beneficial for the fiberglass industry, with a focus on structural opportunities in low dielectric and low expansion products [2][3][17] - In the week of May 10-16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.8952 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.34% [2][16] - The current tariff rate on fiberglass stands at 55%, which is a combination of previous tariffs and new measures, but the impact on the fiberglass industry is expected to be limited compared to earlier trade disputes [2][13] - The supply side is facing significant capacity shocks, with an estimated actual capacity impact of approximately 930,000 tons in 2025 due to new production lines coming online [3][19] - The market demand for low dielectric and low expansion fiberglass is anticipated to grow, with key players like China National Materials and Honghe Technology positioned well in this segment [3][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.12% while the construction materials sector fell by 0.15% during the past five trading days [11] - Notable stock performances included Zhongqi New Materials (+26.6%) and ST Sansheng (+11.5%) [11] Key Industry Segments - Cement prices have continued to decline, with a decrease of 1.1% observed recently, particularly in North China, East China, and Central South regions [19] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with mainstream prices for non-alkali yarn remaining steady, while the overall market is expected to trend weakly [19][20] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include China National Materials, Sankeshu, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, and Gaozheng Mining [20][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The company, Zhongcai Technology, is a leading player in the global specialty glass fiber market, particularly in AI specialty glass fiber cloth, driven by the increasing demand for advanced materials in AI hardware and terminal devices [3][6] - The company has shown significant growth in production and sales, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% over the past fifteen years, increasing sales from 270,000 tons to 1,360,000 tons [6][29] - The future trend indicates a simultaneous increase in both volume and price for specialty glass fiber cloth due to the high demand and supply constraints in the market [7][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Zhongcai Technology operates as a state-owned enterprise focusing on new materials, with its main products including glass fiber and its products, wind turbine blades, lithium battery separators, and high-pressure gas cylinders [6][17] - In 2024, the revenue contribution from glass fiber and wind turbine blades is expected to be 29% and 33% respectively, with net profit contributions of 44% and 36% [17] Specialty Glass Fiber Cloth - Specialty glass fiber cloth, including Low-Dk and Low CTE fiber cloth, is essential for AI hardware, with applications in AI servers, data centers, and high-end mobile devices [7][8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in demand for Low-Dk and Low CTE fiber cloth, which are currently facing supply shortages due to high technical barriers [7][8] Market Position and Future Outlook - Zhongcai Technology is considered undervalued compared to its peers, with significant potential for revenue growth in the specialty glass fiber sector, projected to reach approximately 1.85 billion and 2.2 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026 respectively [9] - The company is in a phase of capacity expansion and product upgrades, which is expected to significantly boost its performance in the coming years [9][42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [11] Core Views - The company, China National Materials Technology (中材科技), is positioned as a leading global supplier of specialty glass fiber fabric, particularly in the context of the AI wave, where demand for Low-Dk and Low CTE materials is surging due to technological advancements [3][7][9] - The company has shown significant growth in its specialty glass fiber segment, with expectations for both volume and price increases in the coming years due to the high demand and supply constraints in the market [3][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - China National Materials Technology operates as a state-owned enterprise focusing on new materials, with its subsidiary Taishan Glass Fiber becoming a global leader in specialty glass fiber [6][19] - The company’s revenue structure for 2024 indicates that glass fiber and products will account for 29% of revenue, while wind turbine blades will account for 33% [6][19] Specialty Glass Fiber Market - Specialty glass fiber products, including Low-Dk and Low CTE fabrics, are critical in the AI hardware sector, with applications in AI servers, data centers, and high-end mobile devices [7][8] - The company is expected to expand its production capacity significantly, aiming for a monthly capacity of approximately 6 million meters by the end of 2026 [9] Financial Performance - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% in sales and revenue over the past fifteen years, with a notable increase in the proportion of specialty glass fiber products in its revenue mix [6][32] - The projected financial performance for 2025-2026 indicates revenues of approximately 1.85 billion and 2.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14 and 12 [9] Competitive Position - The company is recognized as an undervalued leader in the specialty glass fiber market, with significant investments in R&D leading to technological advancements that challenge foreign competitors [9][45] - The company has established a strong competitive edge through its innovation in product development, particularly in low dielectric and low expansion glass fibers [45][46]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in tariffs is beneficial for the fiberglass industry, with a focus on structural opportunities in low dielectric and low expansion products [2][3][17] - In the week of May 10-16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.8952 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.34% [2][16] - The current tariff rate on fiberglass stands at 55%, which is a combination of previous tariffs and new measures, but the impact on the fiberglass industry is expected to be limited compared to earlier trade disputes [2][13] - The supply side is experiencing significant capacity increases, with an estimated actual capacity impact of approximately 930,000 tons in 2025 due to new production lines coming online [3][19] - The market demand for low dielectric and low expansion fiberglass is anticipated to grow, with expectations for the second generation of these products to continue the high demand trend [3][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.12% while the construction materials sector fell by 0.15% during the past five trading days [11] - Notable stock performances included Zhongqi New Materials (+26.6%) and ST Sansheng (+11.5%) [11] Key Sub-Industry Tracking - Cement prices have continued to decline, with a decrease of 1.1% observed [19] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with prices for non-alkali yarn remaining steady, while the overall market is expected to trend weakly [19][20] Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include Zhongcai Technology, Sankeshu, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and China Resources Cement Technology [20][21] - The report emphasizes the long-term value of traditional building materials and the growth potential of new energy materials [20][21]

业内人士预计，未来90天中美两国之间的贸易将大幅增长。因为在双方谈判人员努力达成进一步协商进 展的同时，企业将竞相加大力度储备库存，尤其是美国进口商可能将再度发起一轮新的抢购潮。鉴于美 国进口商未来三个月将迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，高盛分析师Philip Sun表示，"未来90天， 中国的出口将爆火。'抢先'(Frontrunning)将成为关键词"。 2. 高盛预计四季度，中国央行再次"双降" 国外 1. 高盛预言：未来90天中国出口将爆火 5月13日，高盛在最新发布的研报中上调了对中国出口增长的预测，预计2025年实际出口增速与2024年 基本持平，此前的预测则是同比下滑5%；经常账户盈余占GDP比重也从1.7%上调至2.3%。货币政策方 面，高盛在同日发布的另一篇研报中认为，继中国央行近期"双降"（降准与降息）后，预计第四季度将 再次"双降"（50个基点降准+10个基点降息），2026年或追加两次各10个基点降息。综合对中国2025年 出口增速以及货币政策的假设，高盛还上调了中国今年二季度及下半年的GDP环比增速，并上调2025年 全年实际GDP增速。（证券时报） 3. 高盛：维持对中国股票的超 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the construction and building materials industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port, and China National Materials [3]. Core Insights - The cement industry shows signs of improvement in the fundamentals from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a focus on corporate discipline and peak production implementation, as well as cement price trends [3][10]. - The glass industry experienced widespread losses in Q4 2024, but there was a significant improvement in Q1 2025, driven by the price of photovoltaic glass [3][15]. - The fiberglass sector saw a general improvement in profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profitability due to stable price increases and effective industry self-discipline [3][16]. - The consumer building materials sector continues to face declining revenues and profits, with expectations of sustained pressure on downstream demand from construction completions [3][20]. - The construction industry is experiencing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, indicating weak operational data [3][24]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry's fundamentals improved from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in production growth rates and a recovery in net profits for leading companies [10]. - The national average cement price in early May 2025 was slightly lower than the same period last year, indicating a need to monitor price trends closely [10]. Glass Industry - The glass sector faced significant losses in Q4 2024, but Q1 2025 showed marked improvement, particularly in photovoltaic glass pricing [15]. - Key variables to watch include glass price trends and downstream demand changes [15]. Fiberglass Industry - Fiberglass companies reported improved profitability in Q1 2025, attributed to stable price increases and effective supply-side management [16]. - The inventory levels remained stable, indicating a weak balance in supply and demand [16]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a downward trend in revenue and profits, with expectations of continued pressure on demand from construction completions [20]. - The report highlights the correlation between construction completions and downstream demand [20]. Construction Industry - The construction sector is seeing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, with many reporting weak operational data [24]. - The report notes that most central construction enterprises experienced a decline in orders, revenue, and profits in Q1 2025 [24].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the construction and building materials industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port, and China National Materials [3]. Core Views - The cement industry shows signs of improvement in the fundamentals from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a focus on corporate discipline and peak production implementation, as well as cement price trends [3][10]. - The glass industry experienced widespread losses in Q4 2024, but there was a significant improvement in Q1 2025, driven by the price of photovoltaic glass [3][15]. - The fiberglass sector saw a general improvement in profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profitability due to stable price increases and effective industry self-discipline [3][16]. - The consumer building materials sector continues to face declining revenues and profits, with expectations of sustained pressure on downstream demand from construction completions [3][20]. - The construction industry is experiencing a decline in revenue and profits among leading companies, indicating weak operational data [3][24]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry's fundamentals improved from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in quarterly cement production growth rates and a general recovery in net profits for leading companies [10]. - The national average cement price in early May 2025 was slightly lower than the same period last year, indicating a need to monitor corporate discipline and price trends [10]. Glass Industry - The glass industry faced significant losses in Q4 2024, but Q1 2025 showed marked improvement, particularly in photovoltaic glass prices [15]. - Key variables to watch include glass price trends and downstream demand changes [15]. Fiberglass Industry - Fiberglass companies reported improved profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profits due to stable price increases and effective supply-side management [16]. - The inventory levels remained stable, indicating a weak balance in supply and demand [16]. Consumer Building Materials - Leading companies in the consumer building materials sector reported widespread revenue declines, with expectations of continued pressure on downstream demand linked to construction completions [20]. - The report anticipates a narrowing decline in new construction demand over the next year [20]. Construction Industry - The construction sector is seeing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, with many reporting weak operational data [24]. - The report highlights a significant drop in orders and revenues for central state-owned enterprises in Q1 2025 [24].

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The monetary policy has been intensified, with simultaneous reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, which is expected to support the real estate market and stabilize housing demand [5][21] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has increased on a month-on-month basis [6][40] - Recommendations include focusing on the African supply chain and domestic substitution chain, with leading companies being the main investment focus for the year [8][9] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [5] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4% [5][21] - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the rate for first-time homebuyers over five years dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [5] Cement Market - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions was 48%, down approximately 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - National cement prices decreased by 1.2% month-on-month, with regional production issues contributing to the price decline [6][25] - The national average cement price was 387.42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.52 yuan/ton month-on-month, but an increase of 25.16 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] Glass Market - The overall price of float glass has seen more declines than increases, with a slight downward shift in price levels [7][40] - The production capacity of float glass decreased, with 220 out of 286 production lines operational, and daily melting capacity reduced to 156,505 tons [7] - The total inventory of glass in monitored provinces increased by 191 million weight boxes, a rise of 3.39% [7][40] Recommended Companies - For the African supply chain, Keda Manufacturing is recommended as a leading local player with advantages in production, channels, and brand [8] - For domestic substitution, companies such as China National Materials, Puyang Huicheng, and Meijiaxin Color are highlighted due to their strong market positions and growth potential [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of existing leading companies as a stable investment focus for 2025 [9]