Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 0.90% over the two-week period from March 14 to March 27, 2026, outperforming Japan, Latin America, Africa, the UK, China, India, and the US[3] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF declined by 3.19%, underperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 4.09 percentage points[3] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 0.84%, underperforming by 1.74 percentage points, influenced by external energy cost shocks and domestic fiscal consolidation efforts[4] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF increased by 1.66%, outperforming by 0.76 percentage points, supported by government energy subsidy measures despite external inflation pressures[4] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF gained 1.27%, outperforming by 0.37 percentage points, with stable market conditions bolstered by clear government policies[4] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF decreased by 0.73%, underperforming by 1.63 percentage points, primarily due to surging diesel prices impacting costs[4] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF dropped by 0.70%, underperforming by 1.60 percentage points, as the market reacted negatively to the global energy crisis despite government relief measures[4] Market Liquidity - Trading volumes for Southeast Asia ETFs decreased significantly, with Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF trading volume down by 48.2% to 315,000 shares[15] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF saw a trading volume decline of 40.2% to 9.381 million shares, while iShares MSCI Thailand ETF experienced a 65.9% drop to 896,000 shares[15] Risk Factors - Macroeconomic volatility risks in Southeast Asia due to external demand weakness and policy easing uncertainties[5] - Geopolitical risks affecting regional supply chains and increasing instability[5]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential continues to deepen, with inflation expectations declining [2][17]. - Offshore US dollar liquidity is marginally tightening, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced, with a narrowing of the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y government bonds [2][24]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity continues to decline, with most indices showing reduced volatility. Sectors such as utilities, light industry, petrochemicals, construction, electric power, and chemicals have trading heat above the 90th percentile [3][28]. - The volatility of most indices has decreased, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, steel, petrochemicals, and military industry are experiencing volatility above the 90th historical percentile [3][34]. Group 3: Institutional Research - Sectors such as banking, electronics, computers, electric power, and pharmaceuticals are leading in research activity, while sectors like home appliances, non-ferrous metals, consumer services, food and beverage, and retail are seeing a month-on-month increase in research activity [4][44]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027 have been simultaneously revised downwards. However, sectors such as petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, electronics, steel, military industry, real estate, and light industry have seen upward revisions in their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 [5][19]. - The net profit forecast for the CSI 500 index for 2026/2027 has been revised upwards, while the forecasts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and ChiNext indices have been revised downwards [5][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity continues to decline, with a sustained net sell-off of A-shares, although the magnitude of the sell-off has slowed. The ratio of buy/sell totals in sectors like telecommunications, electric power, and pharmaceuticals has increased, while it has decreased in electronics, food and beverage, and media [6][31]. - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, there has been a net buying in sectors like computers, military industry, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling has occurred in electric power, utilities, and electronics [6][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to decline, reaching the lowest point since July 2025, with a net sell-off of 24.006 billion yuan. The main net buying has occurred in sectors like electric power, utilities, telecommunications, and coal, while net selling has been seen in computers, military industry, and automobiles [7][35]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors like banking, coal, and telecommunications has increased [7][38]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, with significant reductions in sectors like non-ferrous metals, building materials, and telecommunications. The correlation between actively managed equity funds and small-cap growth has increased [9][45]. - The scale of newly established equity funds has decreased, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing a decline in new establishment scale [9][50]. - ETFs related to the CSI 300, dividend, and STAR 50 indices have seen net subscriptions, while those related to the CSI A500, CSI 1000, and Shanghai 50 indices have experienced significant net redemptions [9][52].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has issued a report giving Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) a target price of HKD 7.95 and a "Buy" rating, anticipating an injection of approximately RMB 100 billion from Central Huijin Investment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the last year increased by 0.7% year-on-year to RMB 368.6 billion [1] - The pre-provision profit grew by 1.9% year-on-year to RMB 554.5 billion, slightly below Citigroup's expectations [1] - In Q4, the pre-provision profit rose by 3% year-on-year, benefiting from an improved cost-to-income ratio [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The anticipated dilution from the capital injection is expected to reduce earnings per share by approximately 3% to 4%, which is lower than that of Agricultural Bank of China [1] - After considering potential dilution, ICBC's H-shares are projected to correspond to a price-to-book ratio of 0.52 times for 2026, with a forecasted dividend yield of 5.2%, indicating attractive valuation [1] Group 3: Quarterly Performance - In Q4, the net profit increased by 1.9% year-on-year, a slowdown compared to Q3's growth of 3.3%, primarily due to rising credit costs, partially offset by a decrease in tax rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Ping An's 2025 financial results show a revenue exceeding 1 trillion RMB, with net assets also surpassing 1 trillion RMB, and a 22% increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items, but the growth rate lags behind competitors [2][17]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 reached 1,050.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3][18]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 134.8 billion RMB, up 6.5% year-on-year, while net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 22.5% to 143.8 billion RMB [11][26]. - Total assets grew to 13,898.5 billion RMB, a 7.3% increase from the previous year [3][18]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) rose to 14.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [3][18]. Business Segments - The life and health insurance segment generated an operating profit of 103.3 billion RMB, contributing over 65% of the group's operating profit, with a new business value (NBV) of 36.9 billion RMB, up 29.3% [4][19]. - The property insurance segment reported an operating profit of 17.0 billion RMB, a 13.2% increase, despite a 2.8% decline in net profit due to one-time losses from asset sales [6][21]. - Banking operations saw a decline in both revenue and profit, with net profit at 42.6 billion RMB, down 4.2%, and operating income at 131.4 billion RMB, down 10.4% [8][24]. Investment Performance - The total investment income for 2025 was 234.3 billion RMB, a 13.5% increase, with a comprehensive investment return rate of 6.3%, up 0.5 percentage points [11][26]. - The company achieved a significant increase in investment service performance, with a 55.5% rise in related profits [20][25]. Strategic Insights - China Ping An aims to leverage its comprehensive financial services and healthcare strategy to become a leading international service group, although challenges in scaling and profitability remain [13][28]. - The company faces contradictions in its growth strategy, including the inability of scale expansion to support profit growth and the insufficient conversion of competitive advantages into profit [29][30].

- The bond duration timing model uses an improved Diebold2006 model to predict the spot yield curve and map the expected returns of bonds with different durations. The model predicts the level, slope, and curvature factors, with the level factor prediction based on macro variables and policy rate following, and the slope and curvature factors prediction based on the AR(1) model[10] - The convertible bond allocation model compares the relative valuation of convertible bonds and stocks using the "100-yuan conversion premium rate" and calculates the rolling historical percentile to measure the current relative allocation value of convertible bonds and stocks. As of March 27, 2026, the "100-yuan conversion premium rate" was 41.71%, with a rolling three-year percentile of 92.8% and a rolling five-year percentile of 95.7%, indicating a relatively low cost-effectiveness compared to stocks[13][15] - The convertible bond style rotation model constructs a convertible bond style rotation portfolio by excluding high-valuation convertible bonds using the conversion premium rate deviation factor and the theoretical value deviation factor, and capturing market sentiment using the 20-day momentum and volatility deviation of convertible bonds. From February 14, 2018, to March 13, 2026, the annualized return of the convertible bond style rotation was 25.60%, with a maximum drawdown of 15.89% and an IR of 1.51. The return since 2026 was 9.34%[16] - The gold expected return model links the forward real returns of gold and US TIPS, constructing the expected return model for gold. The formula is $E[Real\_Return^{gold}]=k\times E[Real\_Return^{Tips}]$ and $E[R^{gold}]=\pi^{e}+k\times E[Real\_Return^{Tips}]$, where the parameter k is estimated using an expanding window OLS, and the long-term inflation target of the Federal Reserve (2%) is used as the proxy for $\pi^{e}$. As of March 27, 2026, the model estimated the expected return of gold for the next year to be 33.0%[22][23] - The A-share equity market timing framework is constructed from six dimensions: macro liquidity, credit expectations, cross-border capital flows, derivatives expectations, market capital flows, and technical analysis. Based on timing signals, a stock-bond rotation portfolio is constructed using a risk budget model. As of March 27, 2026, the comprehensive signal was -0.23, indicating a bearish view on equity assets[29][31] - The industry rotation model constructs sub-models from six dimensions: trading behavior, prosperity, capital flow, chip structure, macro drive, and technical analysis, and dynamically synthesizes the models to select industries on a bi-weekly basis. The latest industry configuration recommendations are banking, pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, media, apparel, and commerce. The style judgment recommends a growth style over a value style[35][41] Model Backtest Results - Bond duration timing model: March return of 18.3bp, equal-weighted benchmark return of 6.4bp, strategy excess return of 11.9bp. The return over the past year was 1.57%, equal-weighted benchmark return of -0.12%, strategy excess return of 1.69%[12] - Convertible bond style rotation model: Annualized return of 25.60%, maximum drawdown of 15.89%, IR of 1.51. The return since 2026 was 9.34%[16] - Gold expected return model: Expected return for the next year is 33.0%. The absolute return of the timing model based on TIPS yield over the past year was 62.0%[22][24][25] - Stock-bond rotation portfolio (risk budget): Annualized return of 8.16%, maximum drawdown of 3.74%, return volatility ratio of 2.76, return drawdown ratio of 2.19. March return of -0.44%, latest equity position of 4.21%[33][36] - Industry rotation model: March long portfolio return of -6.42%, short portfolio return of -7.73%, equal-weighted benchmark return of -7.23%, long excess return of 0.81%, short excess return of 0.5%, long-short portfolio return of 1.65%[38][40] - ETF rotation portfolio: March return of -5.69%, average return of tracked industries of -6.84%, excess return of 1.14%. Latest ETF rotation portfolio holdings: Game ETF Huaxia, Battery ETF Guangfa, Medical ETF Huabao, Banking ETF Huabao[46][50][53]

Group 1 - A-shares of bank stocks are rising against the trend, with Xiamen Bank increasing nearly 4% [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has risen over 2% [1] - Other banks such as Bank of China, Chongqing Bank, Bank of Communications, China Construction Bank, and Shanghai Bank have all increased by more than 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The shares of Dah Sing Financial Group and Dah Sing Bank have risen following the release of their 2025 annual performance results, indicating positive market sentiment towards the companies' financial health and growth prospects [1] Group 1: Dah Sing Financial Performance - Dah Sing Financial reported a net interest income of HKD 5.901 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 2.057 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 22.9% [1] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 1.42 per share [1] Group 2: Dah Sing Bank Performance - Dah Sing Bank announced a net interest income of HKD 5.829 billion for 2025, which is a 10.2% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.476 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.2% [1] - The bank proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.49 per share [1] Group 3: Overall Revenue Growth - The operating income for Dah Sing Financial Group grew by 14% to HKD 7.915 billion, driven by robust growth in both interest and non-interest income [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank (CCB) reported its 2025 financial performance, showing steady growth in assets, liabilities, and net profit, while maintaining a strong capital position and a commitment to shareholder returns through dividends [1] Financial Performance - Total assets reached 45.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.47% - Total liabilities amounted to 41.95 trillion yuan, up by 12.68% - Core Tier 1 capital net amount was 3.46 trillion yuan, growing by 9.46% - Operating income was 740.87 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.69% - Net profit stood at 339.79 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.04% increase - Non-performing loan ratio was 1.31%, with a provision coverage ratio of 233.15% [1] Customer Service and Loan Growth - Corporate loans in domestic markets reached 15.69 trillion yuan, increasing by 8.70% - Loans to the manufacturing sector grew by 15.83%, while loans to strategic emerging industries rose by 23.46% - Personal consumption loans surged by 29.41%, and loans to the private economy increased by 12.17% - Personal housing loans and credit card loans amounted to 5.99 trillion yuan and 1.01 trillion yuan, respectively [2] Financial Innovations and Green Finance - The bank emphasized the implementation of financial innovations, with technology loans totaling 5.25 trillion yuan and the issuance of green financial bonds exceeding 72 billion yuan - Green loan balances reached 6 trillion yuan, supporting sustainable development initiatives - Inclusive finance saw small and micro-enterprise loans at 3.83 trillion yuan, serving 3.69 million clients [3] Business Integration and Risk Management - CCB focused on integrating corporate finance, personal finance, and asset management to enhance service efficiency - The bank's asset management business reached 6.94 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in client accounts - Non-performing loan ratio decreased by 0.03 percentage points, indicating improved risk management practices [4] Digital Transformation and Cost Efficiency - CCB is advancing its digital transformation, with a 12.10% increase in computing power for its cloud services - The bank is committed to reducing costs and improving operational efficiency across various sectors, including capital and credit management - The bank aims to provide comprehensive and efficient services to clients through enhanced digital infrastructure [5]

美银证券发表研究报告指，交通银行去年纯利按年增长2.2%至956亿元，较该行预期低0.6%；拨备前利 润按年增1.6%，较预期高0.4%；股本回报率按年跌0.7个百分点至8.4%。派息比率按年降至32.3%，全 年每股派息0.325元，按年跌14.3%，受注资摊薄影响，但股息率仍稳健，交行H股及A股分别为5.3%及 4.7%。该行下调交行2026年盈利预测1%，维持H股"中性"评级，目标价由7.09港元下调至6.75港元；交 行A股评级"买入"，目标价由8.2元下调至7.54元。 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economic growth momentum weakened slightly in March, with the composite PMI at 51.4, below the expected 51.9[2] - The GDPNow indicator shows a decline in Q1 GDP growth to 2.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points[2] - Consumer confidence dropped significantly in March, with the Redbook retail index showing a year-on-year decline of 6.5%[2] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions tightened significantly in March, with Goldman Sachs' financial conditions index tightening by 75 basis points[3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 7.4% to 6368.9, while the credit spread widened by 4 basis points to 1.15%[3] - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 54 basis points and 49 basis points, reaching 3.91% and 4.43% respectively[3] Inflation - February's CPI showed a mild increase of 0.3%, while core CPI decreased to 0.2%[4] - High oil prices are expected to elevate short-term inflation expectations, with 2-year and 10-year inflation expectations rising by 50 basis points and 3 basis points to 3.28% and 2.32% respectively[4] Labor Market - February's non-farm payrolls showed a decline of 92,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 55,000[5] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with the labor force participation rate decreasing to 62.0%[5] - Job vacancies indicated a slowdown in labor demand, as evidenced by a decrease in the Indeed job postings index[5] Risks - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, which could further impact economic conditions and the labor market[6]