2026 年 01 月 04 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈艺鑫 S0350525010003 chenyx03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 若人民币汇率持续升值，风格行业如何选择 ——策略周报专题 最近一年走势 相关报告 鹏》——2025-06-17 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、人民币强升值或弱升值期间，配置什 么风格或行业胜率弹性较高？2、当下应该关注哪些性价比较高的行业？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《投资黄金如何增强收益——策略周报*陈艺鑫， 胡国鹏》——2025-09-28 《策略周报：反内卷行情有望进入第二阶段*陈艺 鑫，袁稻雨》——2025-08-24 《投资红利如何增强收益-——红利系列报告*陈艺 鑫，胡国鹏》——2025-07-25 《基于"三步走"的黄金交易策略*陈艺鑫，胡国 《我国财政货币双宽松下，大类资产如何配置*陈 艺鑫，胡国鹏》——2025-03-09 1、根据内需经济复苏强弱，将 2015 年 811 汇改后人民币升值阶段 ...

Group 1 - The global bull market structure for 2025 is characterized by a "two-eight differentiation," where the percentage of declining stocks in major markets like the US, Germany, Japan, and South Korea is significantly higher compared to A-shares, which only have an 18% decline rate [1][38]. - The leading sectors for growth are technology and resources, driven by macro narratives such as the acceleration of the AI industry cycle and the de-dollarization cycle, with strong profit support for these sectors [4][41]. - The concentration of market capitalization is reaching new highs, with major global equity markets showing a concentration ratio of 30%-50% for the top 10 companies, while China's market capitalization concentration is only 18% [5]. Group 2 - The scarcity of high-growth assets is increasing, with only 36% of A-share companies expected to grow at over 20%, down from a historical average of around 45% [3]. - The overseas revenue share of A-share companies has been steadily increasing over the past 20 years but remains low compared to developed countries, with an average of 15% for China compared to 60% for Europe and 30% for the US and Japan [6]. - The effectiveness of pricing based on economic conditions is expected to be more pronounced in 2025, with a focus on profitability indicators such as ROE and net profit growth [10].

来源：光大证券 核心观点一：从震荡的四季度到春季行情。2025年12月A股先跌后涨，整体窄幅震荡。但月中，中长期 资金开始逐步入市，其再次成为了市场的稳定器，叠加居民资金的持续流入，十二月下旬市场持续上 行，春季行情表现值得期待。 核心观点三：春季行情的风格与方向。历史上春季行情通常以成长与顺周期两条主线为主。从往年春季 行情中各板块的表现来看，成长板块在大多数时候均有不错的表现，此外，顺周期板块成为主线的次数 也较高，而成长+周期双主线的情景在过去13次春季行情中共出现过6次。相关行业的行情短期有较强 持续性，不过春季行情中的强势行业未必会成为年度主线。对于今年而言，我们认为消费与成长有望成 为春季行情的两条主线。 核心观点一：从震荡的四季度到春季行情。2025年12月A股先跌后涨，整体窄幅震荡。但月中，中长期 资金开始逐步入市，其再次成为了市场的稳定器，叠加居民资金的持续流入，十二月下旬市场持续上 行，春季行情表现值得期待。 核心观点二：对春季行情保持耐心。春季行情多数年份都存在，不过表现有明显差异，当前来看，12月 下旬的上涨或许就是本轮春季行情的起点。不过需要注意的是，从历史规律来看，上证指数当年1月 ...

Group 1 - The short-term performance of A-shares after the New Year is mainly influenced by policies, external events, liquidity, and overseas market trends [1][6] - Since 2010, in 16 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 11 instances during the 10 trading days before the holiday and has shown similar patterns after the holiday [1][6] - Positive policies and external events are core influencing factors for post-holiday A-share performance, with examples including the resolution of the "fiscal cliff" in the US in January 2013 and the easing of US-China trade tensions in early 2019 [1][6] Group 2 - Current observations suggest that the A-share spring market is ongoing, with potential for a strong but volatile performance post-New Year [1][6] - There is a likelihood of further positive policy implementation after the holiday, including the rollout of guidelines for equipment updates and trade-in policies, as well as local government meetings to stimulate consumption [1][6] Group 3 - External risks post-holiday are expected to be limited, with a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January and stable US-China relations, although tensions with Japan may persist [2][7] - Liquidity is anticipated to further loosen, with potential for accelerated capital inflow into the stock market [2][7] Group 4 - The economic recovery remains weak, with industrial profits continuing to decline, but there is potential for recovery in certain sectors, particularly in technology and cyclical industries [2][7] - Historical trends indicate that industries driven by upward policies and trends before the holiday are likely to maintain their strength afterward [3][8] Group 5 - Recommendations for post-holiday investment include focusing on technology, certain cyclical sectors, and consumer industries, with specific mention of machinery, military, new energy, media, computing, electronics, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals [4][9] - Current PEG ratios for growth sectors like power equipment and media are relatively low, indicating potential for investment [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced narrow fluctuations before the New Year, with most broad indices slightly declining. Looking ahead, the rise of Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index during the New Year period suggests a high probability of a "good start" for A-shares after the holiday. However, the sustainability of the three driving factors behind the recent A-share rally (A500 ETF volume and price increase, strong performance of optical modules, and booming commercial aerospace) remains uncertain post-holiday, necessitating a dual-preparation strategy in the short term. From a mid-term perspective, the market is expected to rise further before March [1][4][10]. Market Overview - The major indices showed slight declines before the New Year, with a narrow range of fluctuations observed [7]. - Sector performance indicated strength in petrochemicals and commercial aerospace, while robotics and soft technology sectors also saw gains [7]. - Market sentiment improved with a rise in trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen, although stock index futures contracts were generally at a discount [7]. - Fund flows showed an increase in margin trading balances, with the securities ETF experiencing the highest net inflow [7]. Market Attribution - The Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy for 2026 [9]. - The official release of the 2026 national subsidy plan was noted [9]. - A reduction in the value-added tax rate from 5% to 3% for individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years was implemented [9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued new regulations on the management of sales expenses for publicly raised securities investment funds [9]. Investment Strategy - Based on the outlook for the Year of the Horse, the recommendation is to maintain current holdings and avoid chasing prices, especially for those that have seen significant gains this year. If a situation similar to the "golden pit" of early 2025 arises, it is advised to increase allocations at lower prices [5][11]. - Sector focus should be on high-tech sectors that have recently undergone sufficient adjustments, such as the Hang Seng Technology and Sci-Tech 50 indices [5][11]. - Industry attention should be directed towards the brokerage sector, which has shown significant lag and market share expansion, as well as robotics-related machinery and automotive sectors, AI application-related media and computing sectors, and sectors benefiting from the Spring Festival retail surge, including electronics and chemicals [5][11]. - Individual stock selection should prioritize low-priced, lagging stocks within the aforementioned sectors and industries [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing "transformation bull market" in China's capital market, driven by structural economic changes and capital market reforms, with expectations for continued growth and opportunities in emerging technologies and industries [4][9][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, China's assets led the world, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark, closing the year up 18.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index surged 49.57% [2]. - After reaching 4000 points on October 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a two-month fluctuation between 3800 and 4000 points, influenced by various factors including U.S.-China relations and domestic real estate market weakness [5]. Group 2: Economic and Market Dynamics - The "transformation bull market" reflects three significant marginal changes in China's economy: a reduction in the drag from traditional industries like real estate, accelerated expansion of new technologies and industries, and the global competitiveness of manufacturing sectors [4][17]. - The article emphasizes that the capital market's ability to consolidate social confidence and capital is unprecedented, marking a historical change in China's financial landscape [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article expresses optimism for the spring market, predicting a "spring opening red" for the stock market, with expectations for policy support, liquidity, and improved fundamentals [6]. - The anticipated growth in 2026 is projected to be double-digit, with a forecast of 10.6% growth for non-financial A-shares, driven by the ongoing transformation of the economy [17][18]. Group 4: Key Drivers of the "Transformation Bull Market" - Three main drivers are identified for the "transformation bull market": the breaking of "guaranteed returns" and the decline of risk-free yields, capital market reforms enhancing investment confidence, and reduced uncertainty in economic development [13][14][16]. - The breaking of "guaranteed returns" has led to a significant drop in fixed-income product yields, prompting investors to seek higher returns in equities and diversified assets [14]. - Capital market reforms have improved the investment environment, increasing the attractiveness of the stock market and stabilizing market volatility [15].

（文章来源：第一财经） 光大证券研报表示，当前来看，2025年12月下旬的上涨或许是本轮春季行情起点。对于1月份指数的行 情，投资者或许应该保持耐心。消费与成长有望成为今年春季行情的两条主线。1月行业配置方面，关 注电子、电力设备、有色金属、汽车等。若市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为 电子、电力设备、通信、有色金属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打 分靠前的行业分别为非银金融、电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. actions in Venezuela, are expected to boost oil and gold prices, while the impact on equity assets is manageable. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve chair nomination, liquidity, and the CES conference, with U.S. stocks showing signs of recovery. [4][12][13] - Domestic PMI for December showed a significant rebound, driven by new subsidies, major projects, and proactive real estate policies. The report anticipates a positive start for A-shares, supported by policy initiatives, increased capital inflow, and technological catalysts. [4][18][19] - The report emphasizes a focus on technology and cyclical industries, particularly in sectors like commercial aerospace, robotics, AI, and semiconductors, as well as lithium batteries, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals. [4][20] Group 2 - The report lists the top ten stocks for January, including companies from various sectors such as electronics, automotive, and healthcare, with no specific ranking provided. [5][10] - Semiconductor company SMIC (688981.SH) is highlighted as a leader in integrated circuit manufacturing, with a projected revenue growth from 574.77 billion to 742.45 billion from 2024 to 2026, reflecting its critical role in the industry. [21][22] - Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ) is noted for its strong revenue growth driven by high-speed optical module demand, with a forecasted revenue increase from 57.33 billion to 106.87 billion from 2025 to 2027. [23][26] - New energy company Haopeng Technology (001283.SZ) is focusing on AI applications and has begun mass production of AI-related products, with projected net profits increasing from 2.47 billion to 5.50 billion from 2025 to 2027. [44][46] - Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ) is expanding its lithium salt production capacity and has significant projects underway, with revenue expectations of 56.91 billion to 97.27 billion from 2024 to 2026. [48][52] - China Aluminum (601600.SH) reported a revenue increase of 13.95% in Q1 2025, with a focus on improving cash flow and reducing debt levels, indicating a strong operational performance. [54][56]

Group 1 - The report indicates that convertible bonds with a conversion value greater than or equal to 130 yuan exhibit a certain degree of "dulling" in their price movements relative to the underlying stocks, but their correlation with stock price movements is significantly higher than that of lower conversion value bonds [2][14] - The increase in convertible bond valuations has indeed impacted their cost-effectiveness compared to stocks, with the Q3 follow-up ratios for bonds in the 130 yuan and 130-100 yuan ranges being higher than those in Q4 [2][14] - The report highlights that from July to August, the monthly follow-up ratios for various conversion value ranges were above 1, indicating a high cost-effectiveness for convertible bonds; however, in September and October, some ranges showed a follow-up ratio below 1, suggesting weaker cost-effectiveness compared to stocks [2][14] Group 2 - The report suggests that the influx of new capital into the market will continue into 2026, with a high probability of a "spring excitement" market trend, particularly focusing on technology and high-end manufacturing investment opportunities [4][23] - It is noted that as institutional investors' share in the convertible bond market increases, the expectations for the stock market will increasingly influence convertible bond valuations, which are expected to remain stable in the short term [4][23] - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds in sectors such as AI-driven industrialization, semiconductor domestic substitution, and high-end manufacturing, with specific bonds like Ruike and Huanyu being highlighted for their growth potential [4][23]

Group 1 - The report indicates that while the number of IPOs and fundraising amounts in 2025 increased compared to 2024, the overall profitability of offline subscription has reached a new low since 2019, with A1/B class products yielding only 2.7% and 2.4% respectively [4][10][5] - In 2025, 87 new stocks were issued in the A-share market, raising a total of 1,235 billion yuan, with 64% of the new stocks having an initial fundraising scale of less than 1 billion yuan [19][20][27] - The average initial price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for new stocks in 2025 was 23x, marking a new low since 2019, with an average discount of 39% compared to comparable companies [36][34][36] Group 2 - The report forecasts a rebound in offline subscription profitability in 2026, with expected yields for A1/B class products projected to be 4.05% and 3.23% respectively, driven by an increase in the number of IPOs and stable pricing [4][10][4] - The report highlights that the strategic allocation of new stocks is expected to remain attractive in 2026, with an increase in external strategic investors and a significant average return on unlocked shares [4][4][4] - The report notes that the number of offline inquiry products has significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 18%, indicating a heightened interest in new stock subscriptions [64][64][64]