Core Points - The newly revised Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China will officially implement on July 1, 2025, leading to accelerated implementation across various regions [1] - Multiple provinces, including Chongqing, Fujian, Anhui, Qinghai, and Jilin, have issued the first mineral rights property certificates, transitioning from "approval registration" to "property registration" [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Implementation and Transition - Chongqing has issued the first mining rights property certificate, enhancing the efficiency of administrative services by reducing the requirements for exploration and mining rights registration [1] - Fujian has issued the first mining rights property certificate and is focusing on business training and inter-provincial exchanges to improve the implementation of the new law [2] - Anhui has issued its first mining rights property certificate, marking the implementation of the "separation of rights and certificates" system, and is optimizing the approval process to ensure a smooth transition [3] Group 2: System Upgrades and Efficiency - Qinghai has issued both electronic and paper versions of the mining rights property certificate, promoting a seamless transition to the new policy and enhancing the protection of mining rights [4] - Jilin has issued its first mining rights property certificate for exploration rights, providing tailored services to enterprises for efficient registration [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the dot - plot shows two more expected rate cuts this year, with the US dollar index having room to decline. The copper supply shock caused by the accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine will exacerbate the tight global copper supply - demand structure. The demand for copper in industries such as power, data centers, and new energy vehicles remains strong. However, the approaching holiday has led to some funds leaving the market for risk - avoidance, and the spill - over effect on other non - ferrous metals from the copper price increase is not sustainable [3][9][10]. - The strength of the US dollar index suppresses the rebound height of the non - ferrous metal sector. Before the holiday, it is recommended to be cautious in trading and use options for protection. Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety [5][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Advice - **Macro Logic**: The Fed has cut interest rates by 25bp, and future rate - cut decisions will depend on economic data. The US - EU trade agreement has been implemented, and the eurozone's September PMI data shows a mixed situation. China's LPR remains unchanged, and the central bank's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose. Before the holiday, market funds are leaving for risk - avoidance, and the support from pre - holiday stocking for non - ferrous metals is weakening [9]. - **Single - side Strategies for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The Grasberg mine accident will reduce copper production, and the global copper supply - demand will be more imbalanced. The Fed's rate - cut cycle is favorable for copper prices in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the short - term upper pressure range at 83000 - 84000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 80000 - 81000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses the rebound. Before the holiday, it is recommended to watch more and trade less, with the upper pressure range at 21300 - 21700 and the lower support range at 20200 - 20500. One can buy out - of - the - money options for protection [5]. - **Alumina**: The spot price is falling, and the operating capacity is increasing. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions, with the upper pressure range at 3500 - 3700 and the lower support range at 2700 - 2900. One can buy out - of - the - money call options for protection [5]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: Due to the tight supply of scrap and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with the upper pressure range at 20800 - 21000 and the lower support range at 20000 - 20300. One can buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - **Tin**: The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern. It is recommended to close long positions and watch more before the holiday, with the upper pressure range at 260000 - 280000. One can buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's rate - cut and economic data affect the US dollar index. The zinc price is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and macro - environment. The zinc price is oscillating weakly, with the upper pressure at 22300 - 22400 and the lower support at 21500 - 21600. It is recommended to trade based on volatility [6]. - **Lead**: The US dollar is rebounding, and there are news of lead - recycling enterprises' production suspension. The lead price is fluctuating. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions at high prices and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [6]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Fed's rate - cut and economic data affect the US dollar index. The nickel price is affected by supply - demand and macro - factors. The nickel price is oscillating, with the upper pressure at 125000 - 128000 yuan and the lower support at 118000 - 120000 yuan. The stainless - steel price is also oscillating, with the upper pressure at 13000 - 13200 and the lower support at 12700 - 12800. It is recommended to reduce positions for risk - avoidance before the holiday [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - **Weekly Futures Price Changes**: Copper closed at 82470 yuan/ton with a 3.28% increase; aluminum at 20745 yuan/ton with a 0.36% decrease; tin at 274070 yuan/ton with a 1.97% increase; lead at 17110 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decrease; nickel at 121380 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease; stainless steel at 12840 yuan/ton with a 0.16% decrease; and cast aluminum alloy at 20325 yuan/ton with a 0.29% decrease [14]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of copper, zinc, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals has different degrees of changes. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 82670 yuan/ton with a 0.16% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 21970 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price is 20780 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - Multiple charts are provided to track key data of different non - ferrous metal varieties, including inventory, processing fees, production, and price trends [22][23][26]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - **Recommended Arbitrage Opportunities** - **Copper 2511 - 2512 Contract Reverse Arbitrage**: The supply - side shock will have a more significant impact on the far - month contracts [14]. - **Alumina 2502 - 2509 Contract Reverse Arbitrage**: The near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [14]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options - **Option Strategies for Each Variety** - **Copper**: Sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - **Tin**: Sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Zinc**: Buy volatility [6]. - **Lead**: Use a straddle strategy (16400 - 17400) [6]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Buy out - of - the - money call options [6].

Core Insights - The cobalt metal concept has seen a rise of 3.02%, ranking sixth among concept sectors, with 34 stocks increasing in value, including notable gains from companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Pengxin Resources [1][2] Market Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today include: - Zinc: +3.68% - Nickel: +3.65% - Lead: +3.61% - Cobalt: +3.02% [2] - The cobalt sector attracted a net inflow of 1.576 billion yuan, with 22 stocks receiving net inflows, and 9 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in net inflow [2] Key Stocks - Ganfeng Lithium led the net inflow with 555.1 million yuan, followed by Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt with net inflows of 428.9 million yuan and 416.8 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Notable stock performances include: - Ganfeng Lithium: +7.83% - Zijin Mining: +5.00% - Huayou Cobalt: +5.46% - Luoyang Molybdenum: +6.81% [3][4] Fund Flow Ratios - The highest net inflow ratios were observed in: - China Metallurgical Group: 10.04% - China Power Construction: 9.29% - Tibet Mining: 8.89% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current economic cycle is showing marginal improvement, but there is still economic pressure in the future, and policy support is necessary. The Fed's future policy path will depend on employment market robustness and inflation decline rhythm. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in October has decreased marginally [2]. - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [5]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate frequently and continue to oscillate during the holiday. Treasury bond investors can close long positions before the holiday [7][8]. - The container shipping futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward in the short term. The 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and generally, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [11]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions lightly during the National Day holiday [15]. - The price of copper has risen due to the suspension of the Grasberg copper mine, and it is expected to decline slightly, with the weekly price range at 81,200 - 82,800 yuan per ton [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly; alumina is expected to operate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly; zinc is expected to operate weakly; nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate; tin is expected to oscillate; lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day; lead is expected to oscillate at a high level [21][25][28][29]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the iron ore price may decline in the short term; coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but face large supply pressure [30][31][35][38]. - The oil price has rebounded in the short term due to geopolitical factors, but the medium - to - long - term fundamental trend is weak. PX - TA has rebounded at a low price, and it is advisable to consider cautious long - position attempts; MEG is expected to oscillate between 4150 - 4350, and it is not recommended to operate methanol before the National Day; PP may have a rebound drive, and PE is expected to oscillate weakly; PVC is recommended to wait and see; pure benzene and styrene are recommended to wait and see, and it is advisable to consider widening the price difference between them; fuel oil is recommended to wait and see; low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward drive; asphalt can try long - position allocation after the oil price stabilizes; rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see during the holiday; urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [42][46][48][52][54][57][58][60][61][63][67][69]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - **Macro**: The supply - and - demand - side policies are being gradually advanced. The demand - side focuses on "benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption", and there may be incremental policies in the future. The "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side is being refined and implemented. The Fed may restart the rate - cut cycle in September, but the uncertainty of the rate - cut path has increased [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB against the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate frequently and continue to oscillate during the holiday due to the approaching holiday and the increase in risk - aversion sentiment [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The Treasury bond market is currently weak. It is recommended to close long positions before the holiday [8]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward in the short term. The 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and generally, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [11]. 3.2 Commodities 3.2.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market has continued to rise strongly, and it is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions lightly during the National Day holiday [13][15]. - **Copper**: The suspension of the Grasberg copper mine has pushed up the copper price. It is expected to decline slightly, with the weekly price range at 81,200 - 82,800 yuan per ton [16][17]. - **Aluminum & Its Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly; alumina is expected to operate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to operate weakly due to the increased uncertainty of rate cuts and the suppression of the US dollar index [22]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate. The nickel market is affected by factors such as mine - end sentiment and new - energy support, and the stainless - steel market is affected by factors such as inventory and profit [24]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to oscillate, and the macro impact on tin prices has decreased, with the supply being tight in the short term [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day. The downstream lithium - battery material demand is expected to increase, which may support the lithium - carbonate futures price [28]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply side may recover, and the demand side is generally stable, but the long - term demand is average [29]. 3.2.2 Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - and - demand are both increasing, but the inventory reduction is less than in previous years. High - supply pressure remains, and the cost support is weakening [30]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro利好 has been exhausted, and the iron ore price may decline, but the downward space may be limited [31][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coking coal is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and coke follows coking coal. The "anti - involution" is the trading main line in the second half of the year [35]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but face large supply pressure. The cost support and term structure have improved, but the supply is high and the demand is weak [38]. 3.2.3 Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price has rebounded in the short term due to geopolitical factors, but the medium - to - long - term fundamental trend is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the pre - holiday trend [42]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - TA has rebounded at a low price. It is advisable to consider cautious long - position attempts or widen the TA - SC price difference. The polyester peak season has limited height [46]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: MEG is expected to oscillate between 4150 - 4350. The demand has improved marginally, but the long - term accumulation expectation is difficult to change [48]. - **Methanol**: It is not recommended to operate methanol before the National Day. The coal price has weakened slightly, and the port inventory is difficult to solve [49]. - **PP**: PP may have a rebound drive due to the reduction of marginal supply. It is not advisable to chase short positions at present [52]. - **PE**: PE is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is recovering slowly, with inventory pressure [54]. - **PVC**: PVC is recommended to wait and see. The market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong policy disturbance [57]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are recommended to wait and see, and it is advisable to consider widening the price difference between them. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the upward space of styrene is limited [58]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to wait and see. The export has decreased, and the cracking upward drive is limited [60]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward drive. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak [61]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt can try long - position allocation after the oil price stabilizes. The supply is increasing, and the demand has not been effectively released, but the inventory structure has improved [63]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see during the holiday. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has high - level resilience but also faces challenges [67]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850. The domestic supply - and - demand pattern is weak, but the second - batch export may support the demand [69].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices have declined, with the main contract reported at 785.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% [1] Group 1: Import and Supply Data - From September 22 to September 28, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports reached 26.037 million tons, a decrease of 1.467 million tons week-on-week [2] - The total iron ore arrivals at 45 ports in China were 23.605 million tons, down by 3.145 million tons week-on-week [2] - The total iron ore arrivals at six northern ports amounted to 10.014 million tons, a decrease of 2.886 million tons week-on-week [2] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.754 million tons, an increase of 1.506 million tons week-on-week [2] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 28.640 million tons, up by 0.912 million tons week-on-week [2] - Australian shipments were 20.280 million tons, an increase of 1.092 million tons week-on-week, with 17.714 million tons sent to China, up by 2.002 million tons [2] - Brazilian shipments were 8.361 million tons, a decrease of 0.179 million tons week-on-week [2] Group 2: Steel Production and Market Dynamics - The operating rate of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces increased by 0.47% to 84.45%, the highest in over four months [2] - Capacity utilization rose by 0.51% to 90.86%, despite the profit margin of steel mills dropping to a near five-month low of 58.01% [2] - Daily molten iron production increased to 2.4236 million tons, the highest in two months, with a year-on-year growth of 7.78% [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Current iron ore prices are in a phase of "high molten iron rigid support" versus "weak expectation suppression," with limited short-term downside but insufficient rebound momentum [4] - The macroeconomic environment shows diminishing returns from overseas policy easing, while domestic supportive policies are still in development [4] - High molten iron production levels above 2.4 million tons per day support the rigid demand for iron ore, but increasing inventory and steel mill losses may weaken raw material demand [4] - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach ahead of holidays, focusing on light positions and monitoring opportunities for iron ore futures [4] - The current supply-demand fundamentals for iron ore are not significantly imbalanced, with ongoing support from high production levels and inventory reduction at ports [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document. Report's Core Views - The impact of the Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia on copper supply and prices is long - term, and copper prices are likely to rise. Aluminum prices are expected to decline in the short - term but can be considered for long - positions at low prices. Zinc prices will maintain a weak oscillation. Lead prices will oscillate in the short - term and may face pressure after the holiday. Nickel and stainless steel prices are in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long term, and short - positions can be held at high prices. Tin prices are expected to be supported and should be traded within a range. Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other products need to pay attention to policy and market supply - demand changes. Carbonate lithium prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, but the impact of mining rights issues needs to be watched [2][4]. Group 2: Metal - Specific Summaries Copper - **Price Movement**: This week, copper prices soared and then fell back from high levels. The Grasberg mine accident led to a short - term increase in prices, but the impact is long - term. Short - term prices may continue to oscillate at high levels, with support at 80,500. - **Supply and Demand**: The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia will reduce production by about 270,000 tons in 2026. Domestic refineries are in a high - maintenance period, and inventory has decreased slightly. - **Market Factors**: High copper prices have weakened domestic consumption, and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain. Macro factors are strong overseas and weak domestically. - **Investment Advice**: Before the holiday, it is recommended to trade cautiously and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. Guinea's bauxite prices decreased, and alumina prices weakened. - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina production capacity increased, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity also increased slightly. Downstream demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased significantly. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to go long at low prices, and for alumina, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: Zinc prices oscillated weakly last week. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and refinery profits are high, resulting in high refined zinc production. Terminal consumption in the peak season recovered limitedly, and downstream enterprises maintained just - in - time procurement. - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to trade with a short - bias within the range [2]. Lead - **Price Movement**: Lead prices oscillated after rising from low levels. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply decreased due to enterprise shutdowns and maintenance, and inventory decreased to a four - month low. However, the post - holiday supply is expected to increase. - **Investment Advice**: In the short - term, lead prices may continue to oscillate, and it is recommended to trade within the range of 17,000 - 17,300 [2]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices rose and then fell last week. - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply may be abundant, refined nickel is in surplus, and nickel - iron price increases are limited. Stainless steel production is high, and inventory has increased. - **Investment Advice**: In the medium - to - long term, nickel supply is in surplus. It is recommended to hold short - positions at high prices, and stainless steel should be traded within a range [4]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is tight, and downstream consumption in the semiconductor and other industries is recovering. Inventory is at a medium level. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to trade within the range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon prices oscillated widely. - **Supply and Demand**: Production increased slightly, and inventory increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon also increased slightly, and the photovoltaic industry's production schedule may decline in October. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to trade with a long - bias in the short - term or wait and see [4]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: Carbonate lithium prices oscillated horizontally. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and South American imports may supplement supply. Downstream demand in the energy - storage sector is good. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see or trade cautiously, and pay attention to the impact of mining rights issues in Yichun [4]. Group 3: Macro - Economic Data 9/22 - 9/28 Week - China's September LPR remained unchanged, with the one - year at 3% and the five - year at 3.5%. - The eurozone's September consumer confidence index improved, and the comprehensive PMI exceeded expectations. - The US September Markit manufacturing and service PMI declined, but the second - quarter GDP growth was revised upwards to 3.8%. The August core PCE price index was in line with expectations [13][17][19]. 9/29 - 10/5 Week - Forecast data for various economic indicators such as the eurozone's economic sentiment index, China's official PMI, and the US consumer confidence index are provided, but the actual values are not announced [22].

Exchange Rate Indices - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose in the week of September 26, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.97, up 0.61, marking the highest level since April 2025 [1] - The BIS currency basket RMB index reached 102.87, up 0.73, also a new high since April 2025 [1] - The SDR currency basket RMB index was reported at 91.34, increasing by 0.44 [1] USD Performance and Impact on RMB - The USD index showed a "weak then strong" trend over the week, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% [5] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1349 against the USD, down 161 basis points for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1413, down 217 basis points [5] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD was reported at 7.1152, with a weekly adjustment down of 24 basis points [5] Future Outlook on RMB - Short-term RMB appreciation remains uncertain due to internal and external pressures, with the USD's performance being a key variable [6] - Analysts expect the RMB middle rate to stabilize between 7.10 and 7.11 in the short term, with a potential for the RMB to strengthen against a basket of currencies if the middle rate remains stable [6] - By year-end, the RMB is anticipated to break below 7.10 and possibly reach 7.0, supported by factors such as increased foreign exchange settlement by enterprises and a strong middle rate signal from the central bank [7]

长城周期优选混合发起式A（021636）基金经理为陈子扬。 9月29日，招金黄金涨6.09%，截至发稿，报10.80元/股，成交2.26亿元，换手率2.35%，总市值100.33亿 元。 资料显示，招金国际黄金股份有限公司位于山东省济南市历下区解放东路25-6号山东财欣大厦9层，成 立日期1988年5月11日，上市日期1993年3月12日，公司主营业务涉及矿业开采与自有房产的出租。主营 业务收入构成为：黄金销售98.37%，其他业务1.63%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，长城基金旗下1只基金重仓招金黄金。长城周期优选混合发起式A（021636）二季度持有股 数4.04万股，占基金净值比例为3.38%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约2.5万元。 长城周期优选混合发起式A（021636）成立日期2024年7月2日，最新规模922.67万。今年以来收益 41.74%，同类排名1644/8244；近一年收益24.33%，同类排名4891/8080；成立以来收益18.59%。 截至发稿，陈子扬累计任职时间2年48天，现任基金资产总规模1.37亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 42.03%， 任职期间最差基金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: The copper price increased with rising positions due to renewed disturbances at the mine end, but investors should be wary of overseas fluctuations. The Grasberg mine accident will lead to a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026, and it may not return to pre - accident production levels until 2027. Short - term copper prices have strong upward momentum, but downstream industries' low acceptance of high prices and the end of pre - holiday stockpiling in China may suppress the price. With the upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday in China, attention should be paid to overseas risks [3]. - Aluminum: With a macro - level easing environment and a supply - demand balance improvement in the industry, the aluminum price may oscillate and stabilize. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate remains above 95%. Although the demand in some sectors is weak, the demand for industrial profiles in photovoltaic and automotive industries is relatively resilient. Low inventory levels support the aluminum price, and it is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, with attention on the pressure at the 21,000 - yuan mark [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - The US dollar index rebounded last week, putting pressure on the copper price. The Grasberg mine accident has led to the suspension of production at the world's second - largest copper mine. Freeport expects the mine to resume pre - accident production levels earliest in 2027, with a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026. In 2024, its output was 816,000 tons, accounting for 3.5% of the global output [8]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, the copper price first rose and then fell. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once reached the 83,000 - yuan mark. Short - term London copper broke through the annual high, and Shanghai copper approached the annual high, with rapidly increasing capital attention and strong upward momentum [3]. 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Rebounded Slightly at a Low Level - The copper ore processing fees showed a slight upward trend at a low level, and relevant data on copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees were presented in the report [23]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking Slowed Down - The de - stocking of electrolytic copper slowed down, and the report showed data on domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory [26]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The report presented data on the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries, including data on refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper rods, and copper strips [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, the aluminum price oscillated. Driven by the copper price during the week, it once rebounded but showed weakness. The report presented data on aluminum price trends, Shanghai - London ratio, London aluminum premium/discount, and Shanghai aluminum spot premium/discount [4][30]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - The report showed data on bauxite port inventory and alumina price, reflecting the situation of the aluminum upstream industrial chain [38]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling Slowed Down - The stockpiling of electrolytic aluminum slowed down, and the report presented data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [42]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The report presented data on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees (average price), and 6063 aluminum rod inventory, reflecting the situation of the aluminum downstream initial - stage industries [45]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: The Grasberg mine accident affects production, and short - term copper prices have upward momentum but are also subject to downward pressure from downstream acceptance and pre - holiday factors. Attention should be paid to overseas risks during the holiday. - Aluminum: With macro - level easing and improved supply - demand balance in the industry, the aluminum price is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, with attention on the pressure at the 21,000 - yuan mark [52][53].

Macro Overview - The macro environment was relatively calm last week, with both gold and copper showing upward trends. The ongoing debate around interest rate cuts remains the main theme, with gold continuing to attract market allocation. The rise in copper prices was primarily driven by fundamental factors, particularly the announcement from Freeport regarding the investigation results and production updates from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which significantly exceeded market expectations [2][6]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.89%, and silver increased by 6.92%. The SHFE gold contract rose by 3.07%, while the SHFE silver contract increased by 6.63%. In the industrial metals sector, COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw changes of +2.89% and +3.28%, respectively [4][24]. - The silver market experienced a significant rise due to the ongoing increase in borrowing costs, leading to potential short squeezes in the spot market. Under the current interest rate cut expectations, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, although there are risks associated with rapid price increases and potential adverse factors [8][52]. Copper Market Analysis - The copper price fluctuations were mainly driven by supply-side events, particularly the production updates from the Grasberg mine, which indicated that there would be almost no production in Q4 this year, affecting prices significantly. The ongoing accidents in copper mines have increased supply disruptions, leading to a downward adjustment in copper concentrate growth expectations, which may elevate copper prices in the long term [6][10]. - The SHFE copper price experienced a pullback after an initial surge, influenced by domestic copper smelting capacity measures announced at a copper industry conference. Despite the price increase, downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a price retreat. The overall demand in Q4 is expected to remain neutral, with potential support for prices if they decline significantly [10][11]. Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 483,000 ounces to 39.95 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory rose by about 6.3 million ounces to approximately 53.034 million ounces. SHFE gold inventory increased by about 8.4 tons, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.2 tons [40][45]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 11.2 tons to 1,006 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 157 tons to 15,362 tons. The non-commercial total holdings for COMEX gold were 399,000 contracts, with a slight increase in both long and short positions [45][46].