期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 期限反套已兑现部分收益 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | （正文） 1. 股指期货基差情况 表 1：股指期货基差 | | | IF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IF2507 | -42.24 | -29.76 | 12.49 | 13.5% | | IF2508 | -57.84 | -39.36 | 18.49 | 8.6% | | IF2509 | -73.04 | -45.16 | 27.89 | 6.3% | | IF2512 | -101.44 | -75.36 | 26.09 | 5.4% | | | | IH | | | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IH2507 | -36.92 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, influenced by multiple factors such as policy issuance, event announcements, and international situation changes, the market saw increased trading volume and rising indices. The base spreads of various varieties also showed an upward trend, and the term reversal strategy realized partial profits. The model predicts the movement directions of the base spreads of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Impact - Six ministries jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", covering five aspects of specific measures. The National New Office announced the September Victory in the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression commemorative activities and parade plan, stimulating market bullish sentiment. Guotai Junan International was approved to provide virtual asset trading services such as cryptocurrencies, driving up the stock prices of Hong Kong and A-share brokerage and financial technology sectors, but the hype quickly cooled down [2] - The Middle - East situation eased with a cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and the expectation of a US interest rate cut increased, promoting the rise of global stock markets and risk assets [2] Market Performance - The daily average trading volume was about 1.5 trillion, and the margin trading balance increased by over 20 billion. The broad - based indices showed three consecutive positive lines followed by continuous adjustments. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 2% this week. The gains of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 narrowed to less than 2% this week, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose about 4% [2] Base Spread Situation - As the index rose this week, the base spreads of various varieties increased, and the historical quantiles rose significantly. The annualized discounts of IC and IM for the current quarter narrowed to around 7% and 10% respectively, with the term structure still higher in the near - month contracts. The far - near inter - term spreads also increased significantly, and the term reversal strategy realized partial profits [2] Forecast for Next Week - The model predicts that the base spreads of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the base spread of IC will weaken [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence, with banking stocks retreating after an initial rise, while computing and metal stocks are gaining momentum, indicating active repositioning by momentum funds and creating new structural opportunities [1] - Global liquidity is expected to remain loose for an extended period, driven by improved trade conditions and cooling inflation expectations, which opens the door for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is leading to a weaker US dollar, which is boosting global risk appetite and pushing up prices of equity assets and commodities, including international copper prices [2][3] Group 2 - The current environment in the A-share market has shifted, with global liquidity easing, positively impacting commodity prices and equity assets, as seen in the rise of resource stocks and computing stocks [3] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to lower funding costs for technological innovation, driving investment in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and computing [3] - The A-share market is characterized by a battle of existing funds, with a decrease in trading volume indicating a lack of new capital influx, necessitating funds from high-performing stocks to support the recovery of low-performing stocks [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a high opening but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.17% to 24,284.15 points and a total trading volume of HKD 275.115 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose 3.2% over the week, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.76% and 4.06%, respectively [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) reached a new high, closing up 3.6% at HKD 58.95, contributing 58.62 points to the Hang Seng Index, following the launch of its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, which saw significant pre-order success [2][7] - Other notable blue-chip movements included Alibaba Health (00241) up 6.35%, Zijin Mining (02899) up 4.17%, while China Life (02628) and China Resources Land (01109) saw declines of 2.97% and 2.55%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Xiaomi's YU7 orders boosting its stock, while Alibaba saw a slight decline [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector continued to rise, with Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 7.71% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.78%, driven by rising copper prices amid a squeeze in the London Metal Exchange [3] - The internet healthcare sector performed well, with Ping An Good Doctor rising over 8% and Alibaba Health up over 6% [3] AMC Sector Activity - The AMC sector saw significant gains, with China Cinda (01359) up 7.03% and CITIC Financial Assets (02799) up 2.38%, following announcements of asset management plans [4] - Analysts noted that long-term funds are increasingly seeking high-dividend assets, which may stimulate further activity in the banking sector [4] Notable Stock Movements - Saturday's Fortune (06168) surged 33.83% to HKD 40.15, driven by strong demand in the gold market and positive sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market [8] - Juzi Bio (02367) rebounded 5.75% to HKD 54.25, following announcements of share buybacks by its controlling shareholder [9] - Huaxing Capital Holdings (01911) rose 4.67% to HKD 4.48, after announcing plans to enter the Web3.0 and cryptocurrency sectors with a budget of USD 100 million [10] Weak Performers - Hong Kong Travel (00308) fell 25.63% to HKD 1.48, as the company undergoes strategic reviews without any confirmed decisions [11] - Rongchang Bio (09995) dropped 6.17% to HKD 55.55, attributed to market disappointment over its recent business development transaction [12]

金十数据6月27日讯，早间恒指冲高回落接近平收，午后初段继续寻底击穿24300点，最低见24194.85 点，于水下震荡调整。截至收盘，恒指收跌%，报点，科指收跌%，报点，恒指大市成交额达亿港元 （上一交易日为2617.29亿港元）。盘面上，有色金属、互联网医疗板块表现强势，汽车股分化明显， 银行、保险、券商等大金融板块午后显著回调。个股方面，小米集团(01810.HK)收涨3.6%；紫金矿业 (02899.HK)收涨4.17%；比亚迪股份(01211.HK)收跌1.19%；工商银行(01398.HK)收跌2.02%；中国平安 (02318.HK)收跌1.27%；国泰君安国际(01788.HK)收跌14.69%。 港股收评：恒指冲高回落小幅收跌小米集团(01810.HK)一度新高收涨3.6% ...

Market Performance - Major stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened higher on June 27, with initial gap filling followed by fluctuations, leading to a mixed performance by the end of the day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3424.23 points, down 0.70%, with a trading volume of approximately 605.7 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10378.55 points, up 0.34%, with a trading volume of about 935.4 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 2124.34 points, up 0.47%, with a trading volume of around 464.6 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The copper cable high-speed connection sector led the gains, while sectors such as new stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, CPO concepts, non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, components, and storage chips also saw significant increases [1] - Conversely, the oil and gas, banking, and cross-border payment sectors experienced notable declines [1] Institutional Insights - The market is experiencing a divergence, with copper cable connections performing well; a weaker dollar is creating a favorable external environment for Chinese assets, particularly benefiting core assets in Hong Kong and A-shares [2] - Investment strategies suggest buying undervalued stocks with earnings certainty while monitoring policy directions and global liquidity changes [2] - Continuous optimism for precious and industrial metals is noted, with a focus on cost advantages and volume growth for companies in these sectors [2] Transportation Sector Developments - The Ministry of Transport is accelerating the green, low-carbon, and smart transformation of inland shipping, highlighting its advantages in capacity, cost, and environmental sustainability [3] - Over 1000 new energy inland vessels have been developed, and significant progress has been made in smart waterway construction and automated port projects [3] Agricultural Sector Initiatives - The All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives has launched an action plan to enhance the modern circulation service network for agricultural products, aiming to expand e-commerce sales [4] - The plan includes leveraging various e-commerce platforms and promoting quality agricultural products through live streaming and short videos to build strong e-commerce brands [4]

Group 1: Stablecoin Regulation in the US - The US Senate passed the "Guidance and Establishment of the US Stablecoin National Innovation Act," establishing regulatory rules for stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, marking a significant development in the $250 billion stablecoin market [1] - The US aims for the stablecoin market to expand to $3.7 trillion by 2030, with stablecoin issuers potentially becoming one of the largest holders of US Treasury bonds [1] - The push for stablecoins is not only to mitigate US debt risks but also to enhance the influence of the US dollar in the global financial system, which could undermine other sovereign currencies [1] Group 2: Virtual Asset Trading Licenses in Hong Kong - Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission approved 40 institutions to provide comprehensive virtual asset trading services, with Guotai Junan International becoming the first Chinese broker to receive such a license [2] - Following the approval, Guotai Junan International's stock surged nearly 200%, significantly impacting the Hong Kong Chinese broker index, which rose by 11.75% in a single day [2] - Other approved institutions include Tianfeng International, Huafu Securities, Futu Securities, and several others, indicating a growing interest among Chinese brokers in virtual asset trading licenses [2] Group 3: ETF Market Activity - In May, Galaxy Securities led the Shanghai Stock Exchange in ETF holdings with a 24.63% share, while Huatai Securities topped the trading volume with an 11.30% market share [3] - The trading activity indicates a shift in dynamics, with Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities showing strong performance in transaction volume, while Galaxy Securities' trading volume share decreased [3] - The resurgence of interest in Hong Kong ETFs is highlighted by the reappearance of Hong Kong Yu Information in the top 30 trading volume list, reflecting renewed investment enthusiasm [3] Group 4: Honor's IPO Initiation - Honor Technology Co., Ltd. has initiated its IPO process, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission approving its listing guidance, aiming for completion between January and March 2026 [4] - The company, established in April 2020, has a registered capital of approximately 3.22 billion yuan and is classified under the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry [4] - The IPO guidance involves multiple phases, including preliminary investigations and compliance checks, leading up to the submission of the IPO application [4] Group 5: Rongchang Bio's Partnership and Market Reaction - Rongchang Bio announced a collaboration and licensing agreement with Vor Bio, which includes an upfront payment of $45 million and potential milestone payments up to $4.105 billion [5][6] - Following the announcement, Rongchang Bio's stock experienced a significant decline, with A-shares dropping over 18% and H-shares falling more than 11% [6] - Concerns arose regarding the early relinquishment of global rights for a key product, raising doubts about Vor Bio's operational capabilities after reports of severe downsizing [6] Group 6: Nord Shares' Stock Performance and Inquiry - Nord Shares halted its "7 consecutive boards" streak, with stock price fluctuations prompting regulatory inquiries due to significant trading anomalies [7] - The company is investigating potential undisclosed relationships involving its controlling shareholders, while also addressing its involvement in solid-state battery technology [7] - Despite claims of innovation, Nord Shares indicated that revenue from solid-state battery applications remains minimal, highlighting competitive challenges in the market [7] Group 7: Fund Companies' Investment Strategies for the Second Half - Fund companies are optimistic about investment opportunities in the A-share market for the second half of the year, particularly in the technology sector [9][10] - Focus areas include AI-related companies and smart driving technologies, with expectations of new investment opportunities emerging as market perceptions evolve [9] - Additionally, there is interest in high-dividend blue-chip stocks and deep value strategies, as well as the potential for growth in Hong Kong stocks due to increased IPO activity and foreign investment [11][12]

Group 1 - The market saw a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing 1.6 trillion, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3450 points for the year [1] - The brokerage sector experienced a substantial rise, driven by the acquisition of a virtual asset license by Guotai Junan International, alongside industry consolidation, regulatory reforms, and low valuations as the main catalysts for the increase [1] - The outlook for the brokerage sector remains positive, with a focus on holding positions after valuations become reasonable [1] Group 2 - Attention is drawn to two key factors: the impending deadline of July 9 for US tariff negotiations, which may impact China based on outcomes with Europe and Japan, and the emphasis on technological independence and domestic demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - There are multiple industry news, company earnings, and international developments that warrant attention [1]

Market Overview - A-shares showed strength with major indices rising, with the ChiNext Index up over 1.2% [1] - The financial sector, particularly brokerage stocks, saw significant gains, while sectors like oil and gas extraction, electricity, and tourism experienced fluctuations [2] Sector Performance - The brokerage sector had a notable rally, with Tianfeng Securities hitting the daily limit, and other firms like Huaxi Securities and Guohai Securities also seeing increases [6][8] - The financial sector was active, with companies like Hongye Futures achieving multiple consecutive gains [8] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market indices rose, with Xiaomi Group, Kuaishou, and SMIC leading the gains [4] - Xiaomi Group's stock price reached a record high, increasing by 8% before stabilizing [12] Xiaomi Automotive - Xiaomi's automotive concept stocks surged, with significant gains in related companies such as Electric Alloy and Mould Technology [12][13] - Xiaomi officially launched its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, with strong pre-order numbers, exceeding 200,000 within three minutes of launch [14] Digital Asset Developments - The Hong Kong government announced a policy for digital asset development, indicating future licensing for trading and custody services [10] - Tianfeng International Securities upgraded its license to offer virtual asset trading services, reflecting growing interest in stablecoins and digital assets [10]

港股午评：恒指高开低走接近平收 小米集团半日涨4.39% 金十数据6月27日讯，港股今日早间表现反复，恒指高开后一度涨逾百点，最高检24471.53点，随后回 落一度转跌，恒生科技指数早间走势震荡，一度涨近1%。截至午间收盘，恒指收跌0.07%，报24309.42 点，科指收涨0.14%，报5352.59点，恒指大市成交额达1624.29亿港元。盘面上，半导体、有色金属、 航空航天板块涨幅居前；汽车股走势分化；中资券商股冲高回落，生物医药板块跌幅居前。个股方面， 小米集团(01810.HK)半日收涨4.39%，昨晚正式发布小米YU7，一小时大定突破289000台；中芯国际 (00981.HK)收涨1.69%；洛阳钼业(03993.HK)收涨6.26%；百济神州(06160.HK)收跌8.38%；弘业期货 (03678.HK)收涨8.15%；国泰君安国际(01788.HK)收跌7.34%。 ...