1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and the nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the disk margin follows the macro - sentiment change [4]. - For stainless steel, the macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The steel price fluctuates at a low level [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is trading the upstream resumption expectation, and the disk has short - term fluctuations [27][32]. - For polysilicon, it may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The policy market dominates, but there is still a short - term correction drive [27][33]. - For lithium carbonate, the'movement - style anti - involution' cools down. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi. The price is under pressure, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely [61][64]. - For palm oil, the macro - sentiment fades, and it may have a short - term pullback. The market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year, but the current price may not match the fundamentals [86][87]. - For soybean oil, it lacks effective driving forces. Pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: The influence of the macro - sentiment on the nickel market is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. The contradiction at the ore end fades, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range oscillation judgment. The global refined nickel inventory increases moderately, and the short - term nickel price has a limited decline but is suppressed above [4]. - Stainless steel: The macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The 8 - month production schedule shows a marginal increase, and the nickel - iron price is revised upwards. The inventory has decreased moderately, but it is still higher than last year [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - Nickel: The Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreases, the LME nickel inventory increases, the nickel - iron inventory has high - level destocking, and the Chinese port nickel - ore inventory increases [6][7][8]. - Stainless steel: The national stainless - steel social total inventory decreases weekly, with different trends in cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [8]. - **Market News** - There are news about the potential export suspension of nickel from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and the adjustment of the mining quota period in Indonesia [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The futures price shows a weak oscillation, and the spot price drops. The Xinjiang 99 - silicon and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon prices decline [27]. - Polysilicon: The futures price rises and then falls, and the spot trading is weak [27]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a marginal increase in production, and the overall industry inventory continues to be destocked. The demand side has stable short - term demand [28][29]. - Polysilicon: The supply side has an increase in short - term production, and the upstream inventory is destocked. The demand side has a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission is not smooth [29][31]. - **后市观点** - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect the market sentiment [32]. - Polysilicon: The policy market dominates, but there is a short - term correction drive. Pay attention to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [33]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract price drops significantly, and the spot price also decreases. The basis and the spread between contracts change [61]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The lithium concentrate price drops, and the production of lithium carbonate decreases, mainly due to the reduction of mica and salt - lake enterprises [62]. - Demand: The downstream procurement willingness increases, but the absolute demand is still lower than expected [62]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreases, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation [63]. - **后市观点** - The'movement - style anti - involution' expectation is broken, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi [64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The domestic macro - sentiment pushes the price to a three - year high, but the lack of downstream demand makes it difficult to continue rising [86]. - Soybean oil: The large number of export orders stimulates trading enthusiasm, and the soybean - palm oil price spread narrows [86]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The MPOB report's negative impact is digested, and the market trades the de - stocking market. Malaysia may continue to accumulate inventory in July, and Indonesia's production recovery may be lower than expected. The international oil market may have a systemic upward trend, and the palm oil price is relatively resistant to decline [87]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and it is necessary to pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine its elasticity. Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The contradiction at the mine end has faded, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range fluctuation judgment. Stainless steel is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern, with macro hype sentiment fading and the influence of actual verification increasing [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the contradiction at the nickel mine end fades, the smelting end logic suggests a narrow - range fluctuation. The premium of Indonesian nickel mines has回调, and the cash cost of pyrometallurgy has decreased by 1.4%. The global visible inventory of refined nickel shows a mild increasing trend, and the expected increase in low - cost supply in the long - term still drags down the market. However, the de - stocking of nickel - iron inventory at a high level slightly boosts the nickel price valuation [1]. - **Macro Factors**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing previous supportive measures, and the market valuation may回调 marginally. Overseas, the weakening US dollar supports non - ferrous metals but suppresses industrial external demand expectations [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. Stainless Steel Market - **Production Arrangement**: In August, the stainless - steel production arrangement is 3.23 million tons, with a marginal increase of 0% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year increase has slightly declined to 2.1%. In Indonesia, the August production arrangement is 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth is 1.2% [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The nickel - iron price has been revised up to 920 yuan/line, and the cash cost of stainless - steel billets is about 12,584 yuan/ton. The warehousing profit has回调 from a high of 3.0% to 1.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: After the production cut in June - July, the stainless - steel inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of about 5%, but it is still 5% higher than last year. The nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 10% month - on - month but is 56% higher year - on - year, which may drag down the steel price [2][5]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per single line [6]. - Environmental violations have been found in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park, and possible fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6][7]. - The production of some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia has been suspended due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,840 [8]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 106,856, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 124,683 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are characterized by the resonance of macro and news factors, while the real - world fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The fundamentals of stainless steel show that macro expectations boost the market, but the actual supply - demand situation still exerts a drag. The price of nickel and stainless steel is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamentals - Macro and news factors improve market sentiment, with policies potentially adjusting the structure and optimizing supply. The Indonesian APNI Association suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, which may increase smelting costs. However, the support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in July has affected the supply side, and the acceptance of high smelting prices in the ternary sector is low [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - U.S. tariffs suppress the terminal demand for stainless steel, but domestic policy expectations boost the market. The real - world supply - demand situation has turned into a double - weak state, with weekly inventory slightly decreasing. The production schedule in July shows a decline in China and an increase in Indonesia. The high - cost cash cost of Indonesian stainless steel has decreased, and the high inventory of nickel - iron pressures its valuation [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. The mid - July nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. On July 17, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.69% week - on - week. China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9.4836 million wet tons [3][4][6]. Market News - There are various events such as the potential halt of nickel exports from Ontario to the U.S., the successful trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, the shutdown and maintenance of a cold - rolling mill, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, the plan to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, and the suspension of production of some nickel - iron EF lines due to losses [7][8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and related price differences of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel products [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 6, 2025 [1][4][30][56] - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report on Green Finance and New Energy [1] - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [2][4][30][56] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Core View: Nickel prices may be under pressure at low levels, with a slight downward cost expectation and limited upside potential [4] - Fundamental Analysis: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The cost of the pyrometallurgical path remains high in July, but the premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined. The market sentiment regarding increased Indonesian quotas has eased, and the speculation sentiment has cooled down. The smelting end, including stainless steel production cuts and nickel-iron inventory accumulation, may limit the upside space of refined nickel [4] - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons. The nickel-iron inventory at the end of June reached a historical high, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 66% and 8%, respectively [6][7] - Market News: There were various news events related to nickel, including potential export restrictions from Canada, new project production in Indonesia, and the resumption of production at a nickel smelter [10] Stainless Steel - Core View: The supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5] - Fundamental Analysis: The short-term off-season demand is weak, and the negative feedback from the US tariff increase on steel products has been transmitted to the supply side. The production in July decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the inventory decreased slightly. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the profit margin has been slightly repaired [5] - Inventory Changes: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 0.20% week-on-week, with the cold-rolled and hot-rolled inventories decreasing by 0.53% and 0.18%, respectively [7] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Core View: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited, and a short-selling strategy is recommended [30][34] - Price Trend: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely this week, while the spot price increased [30] - Supply and Demand: The industry inventory decreased this week. The production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased due to the wet season, while the production in Xinjiang decreased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the overall industry inventory continued to decline [31] - Market Outlook: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited due to the lack of policy support and the slowdown in warehouse receipt reduction. A short-selling strategy is recommended [34] Polysilicon - Core View: It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and pay attention to policy announcements [30][35] - Price Trend: The polysilicon futures price increased significantly this week, and the spot price also rose [30] - Supply and Demand: The upstream inventory of polysilicon continued to accumulate, and the terminal demand declined. The silicon wafer production decreased, and the enterprises planned to raise prices [32][33] - Market Outlook: The market is trading on the policy expectation of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to wait for policy details and hold positions cautiously [35] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate - Core View: The profit margin of the lithium carbonate futures market has opened up, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure [56] - Price Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated upward this week, while the spot price increased [56] - Supply and Demand: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high due to the increase in lithium ore prices and the profitability of external ore procurement. The demand is expected to weaken due to the "anti-involution" policy and the reduction of new energy subsidies in the US [57][58] - Market Outlook: It is recommended to short-sell on rallies, with the price of the 2507 contract expected to range between 55,000 and 65,000 yuan/ton [59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: No clear investment rating provided, but analysis suggests potential downward pressure and limited upside [4] - Stainless Steel: No clear investment rating, expected to trade in a narrow range [5] - Industrial Silicon: Recommended for short - selling, with limited upside potential [30] - Polysilicon: Suggested to hold positions cautiously and wait for policy details [30] - Lithium Carbonate: Recommended to short on rallies, with attention on upper - limit pressure [56] - Palm Oil: In a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Short - term seasonal short - selling is possible, and long - position building at low levels can be considered in late Q3 [85] - Soybean Oil: Weak reality persists, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84] 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The support at the nickel ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upward momentum for prices [4][5] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The upside of industrial silicon is limited, and short - selling is recommended. Polysilicon should be observed for policy details, and short - selling can be considered after the market sentiment subsides [30][34] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures profit margin is open, but the upward pressure is significant due to factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and the cancellation of US new - energy subsidies [56][57] - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is currently influenced by international oil prices, with a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Soybean oil's weak reality continues, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract showed certain price fluctuations. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,270 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore support is weakening, and stainless steel supply and demand are both weak. The nickel - iron inventory has reached a historical high [4][5] - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased, while LME nickel inventory decreased. Stainless steel social inventory decreased slightly [6][7] - **Market News**: There were various events such as potential export restrictions on nickel from Canada, project startups and shutdowns in Indonesia, and policy - related news in the Philippines and Indonesia [10][11] **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated widely, and spot prices rose. Polysilicon futures rose significantly, and spot prices increased [30] - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon inventory decreased, and polysilicon upstream inventory continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of both showed different trends [31][32] - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon is recommended for short - selling, and polysilicon should be observed for policy details [34][35] **Lithium Carbonate** - **Price Movement**: The lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated upwards, with different price changes in futures and spot markets [56] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to remain high, but demand is suppressed by factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and US subsidy cancellation. Inventory continues to increase [57][58] - **Market Outlook**: Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [59] **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil** - **Price Movement**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 1.15% last week, and soybean oil 09 contract fell 0.72% [84] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil has a situation of uncertain production and potential supply - demand changes. Soybean oil's weak reality persists [84][85] - **Market Outlook**: Palm oil is in a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation, and soybean oil is waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated July 3, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core Views - **Nickel**: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, and steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The governance of involutionary competition mainly affects the downstream automotive industry demand, and attention should be paid to the amplification of volatility by macro - sentiment disturbances [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term sentiment disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upward space [2][13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures market is expected to rise first and then fall [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,220 yuan, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,670 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads compared to previous periods [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and adjust production according to the market; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [4][5][7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the 2507 contract was 63,980 yuan, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a rumored suspension of an Australian mining company was untrue; a Chilean joint - venture obtained a lithium - mining quota approval [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,210 yuan, and the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 35,050 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Southern Regional Power Market started continuous settlement trial operation [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on nickel is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, uncertain events such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies will disrupt the market. Domestic policy support is expected to increase, and macro - sentiment will still have a phased impact on nickel prices. Fundamentally, the oversupply pattern of primary nickel is hard to change, the negative feedback from demand is intensifying, and the bottom - seeking process of nickel prices continues. If the support from the ore end weakens, it may drive the valuation of nickel prices further down. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices) can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation. However, be vigilant about the impact of Indonesian policies and macro - news on nickel prices. In terms of operations, look for opportunities to build short positions on price rallies and use combination strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options to increase returns, while controlling risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, nickel prices first rose and then declined, with the price center shifting down. In the first quarter, policies in nickel - resource countries stimulated price increases, while in the second quarter, trade conflicts weakened demand expectations, and the oversupply situation intensified, leading to a sharp decline in nickel prices. As of June 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract was 120,480 yuan/ton, down 3.22% from the beginning of the year, and the LME nickel price at 15:00 was $15,195/ton, down 1.1% from the beginning of the year [7] 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Overseas - The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm remains uncertain. At the June meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the economic outlook shows concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy. The impact of tariff policies on inflation has not yet emerged. The Fed's dot plot shows a 50bp interest - rate cut this year, but more officials prefer not to cut rates. The Fed has also downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and raised its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts. The impact of tariffs on US inflation has not fully manifested yet, but there is still an upward risk of inflation in the second half of the year [12][13][20] 3.2.2 Domestic - The domestic economy is running steadily, but there are still pressures for stable growth. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and new export orders increased after the Sino - US economic and trade talks. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies, there is still a risk of decline in external demand. In terms of imports and exports, exports increased year - on - year in May, but the growth rate slowed down, and imports declined. In terms of credit, the social financing and credit data in May improved slightly, but the financial data has not yet shown strong momentum. It is expected that the central bank may continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will further strengthen in the second half of the year [23][24][26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side - **Indonesian Ore End**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel ore sales and use, and the policy may accelerate the clearance of some high - cost production capacities. The supply gap of Indonesian nickel ore can be supplemented by importing from the Philippines. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively firm, but the demand negative feedback may affect the ore price, and the downward space for high - grade ore prices is limited. In the first half of 2025, China's nickel ore imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventories showed a seasonal decline [29][32][40] - **Nickel Iron**: China's nickel iron production continued to decline year - on - year in the first five months of 2025. In Indonesia, new pyrometallurgical projects were put into production in the first half of the year, and the production of nickel iron increased year - on - year, but there were some production cuts due to cost - price inversion. In the second half of the year, the contraction of stainless steel production may affect the demand for nickel iron, and the profit of Indonesian iron plants may be under pressure. The number of Indonesian nickel iron projects to be put into production in the second half of the year has decreased compared with previous years [43][44] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: In the first five months of 2025, the import of nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate products and nickel matte increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of intermediate products slowed down. The production of Indonesian MHP increased significantly year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, more attention should be paid to the commissioning of wet - process projects [51][54][55] - **Pure Nickel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's refined nickel production continued to climb, but the growth rate slowed down. Both imports and exports of refined nickel increased significantly. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel and high - grade nickel matte has increased, and the cost range of integrated electrowon nickel will be the focus of pure - nickel valuation in the second half of the year [59][64][67] 3.3.2 Demand - side - **Stainless Steel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's stainless steel production increased year - on - year, and in June, Tsingshan reduced production. In Indonesia, stainless steel production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, but production is expected to decline in the third quarter. The apparent consumption of stainless steel increased year - on - year, but the terminal demand is weak. The export of stainless steel increased year - on - year in the first five months, but the impact of tariffs on exports is gradually emerging. It is estimated that the annual demand growth rate of stainless steel is about 3% [69][74] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In the first five months of 2025, China's nickel sulfate production decreased year - on - year. The MHP coefficient remained firm due to the supply disruption of cobalt. The production and sales of new energy vehicles remained high, but the proportion of ternary batteries in power - battery loading continued to be low, which had a negative impact on nickel demand. The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel increased year - on - year, with a growth rate of 3.6% in the first five months [80][84][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices. Global refined nickel inventories are increasing marginally. Stainless steel supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [4][5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has a fast short - term warehouse receipt clearance, but the upside space is limited. Polysilicon should maintain a short - selling strategy. The fundamentals of both show an oversupply situation [30][34][35]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, showing a weak oscillation. Opportunities for short - selling at high prices and reverse spreads should be awaited [62][63][64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production, and the strategy is mainly based on spread expressions. There are potential long - term bullish factors. Soybean oil is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, with potential upward space after the third quarter [88][89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The logic of the ore end is dull, and the smelting end restricts the upside space. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing marginally, and the nickel - iron is in a state of surplus and inventory accumulation. The price of nickel is affected by factors such as the expected increase in Indonesian quotas and the possible removal of the Philippine raw ore export ban [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons. The mid - June nickel - iron inventory increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month [6][7]. - **Market News**: There are various events such as the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of a cold - rolling mill [10]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Production and imports are decreasing marginally, the inventory pressure remains, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. In the long term, the price center may be difficult to lift significantly [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in both cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly this week, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 7,390 yuan/ton on Friday [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocking again. The supply is expected to increase as factories in Xinjiang and Sichuan continue to resume production. The demand from downstream industries has short - term increases in some aspects but is still mainly based on rigid demand [31][32]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The follow - up focus is on the warehouse receipt situation. The high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The polysilicon futures declined significantly this week, and the spot price is also expected to decrease [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The upstream inventory is slightly de - stocking. The supply is expected to increase as some factories resume production, while the terminal demand is declining, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be adjusted downward [31][32][33]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The price is expected to continue to decline towards the real cost line [35]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The main contract of carbonate lithium oscillated downward. The 2507 contract closed at 59,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 60,400 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing as the production and operating rate of the smelting end are growing. The demand is weakening as new energy vehicle sales show no significant increase, and the energy storage demand is expected to decline after reaching a peak in May. The inventory is accumulating [63]. - **Future Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling at high prices after the long - buying intention of the near - month contract is clear and reverse spreads after the end of June are recommended [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.86% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: The production in Malaysia is expected to be flat or slightly decrease in June. The export is strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. It is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term strategy is based on spread expressions, and long - buying can be considered at low levels before the fourth quarter [89]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.75% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: Internationally, the US EPA's policy will lead to an increase in the demand for soybean oil. Domestically, the inventory is accumulating currently but may reach a peak in July. It is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, and long - buying opportunities can be observed in the fourth quarter [90][91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of the year, nickel and stainless steel prices may face pressure and fluctuate at low levels, with the center of the fluctuation likely to move down compared to the first half. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton, and for stainless steel, it is 12,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton [2]. - The core logic for the nickel market in the first half of the year was the tight supply of nickel ore, but market concerns may become dull in the second half. The supply elasticity of refined nickel may limit the upside space, and the downstream demand for nickel is mediocre, so the center of the nickel price fluctuation may move down [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Review of Nickel and Stainless Steel Trends 1.1 Shanghai Nickel Market Review - From January to February 2025, nickel prices fluctuated in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton. Despite a slight increase in inventory at the smelting end, it was lower than expected. High ore prices provided cost support for pyrometallurgy, and nickel prices oscillated in a multi - empty game [5]. - From March to April 2025, price volatility increased significantly. Nickel prices first rose and then fell, fluctuating in the range of 115,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton. Intensified ore - end contradictions led to a significant increase in nickel ore premiums, pushing up pyrometallurgical smelting costs. However, concerns about Trump's tariff policies and the release of supply elasticity in Indonesia limited the upside of refined nickel prices [6]. - From May to June 2025, nickel prices returned to range - bound fluctuations, but the center of the fluctuation gradually moved down, in the range of about 118,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton. The tight supply of Indonesian nickel ore continued, but market concerns about the ore end eased. Negative feedback from stainless steel production cuts also limited the upside of nickel prices [7]. 1.2 Stainless Steel Market Review - From January to March 2025, steel prices oscillated upward due to the combined effect of rising costs and peak - season expectations. The cost of stainless steel increased, and the price reached 13,800 yuan/ton, with a maximum cumulative increase of 8% [14]. - From April to May 2025, steel prices mainly followed overseas tariff policies. Trump's tariff policies led to a sharp decline in market risk appetite, and steel prices dropped. After the relaxation of tariffs, steel prices rose to 13,100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 3% [14]. - In early June 2025, the center of steel price fluctuations moved down. The supply elasticity of ferronickel was released, and stainless steel entered a negative - feedback logic, with costs decreasing and inventory digestion slow [15]. 2. Supply 2.1 Front - end Smelting - **Short - term Supply**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian hydrometallurgical intermediate products was 184,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 73,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 39,000 tons. The cumulative output of pyrometallurgical intermediate products was 114,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 14,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 16,000 tons. It is expected that the actual supply of Indonesian MHP in 2025 may increase by 44% (150,000 tons) year - on - year to 480,000 tons, while the actual supply of nickel matte may maintain a negative growth rate [20][21][25]. - **Long - term Consideration**: Hydrometallurgy has cost advantages, but it is difficult for it to make deep concessions. Although the profits of hydrometallurgical projects are considerable, the initial investment is high, and the pay - back period is long. A sharp decline in nickel prices may impact future hydrometallurgical supply expectations [32][36]. 2.2 Back - end Smelting - The supply of back - end smelting, including refined nickel and nickel sulfate, is in an over - supply situation. The supply increment of refined nickel is mainly in China. It is expected that the global refined nickel supply will increase by 9% (90,000 tons) year - on - year to 1.11 million tons in 2025. The global supply of nickel sulfate raw materials is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year to 420,000 tons [40][41][55]. 2.3 Ferronickel and Stainless Steel - **Ferronickel**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian ferronickel was 704,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 104,000 tons), and that of Chinese ferronickel was 131,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 5,000 tons). It is expected that the global ferronickel supply will increase by 4.8% (100,000 tons) year - on - year to 2.17 million tons in 2025 [62][65]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Chinese stainless steel was 16.1 million tons (year - on - year increase of 780,000 tons), and that of Indonesian stainless steel was 2.12 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 9,000 tons). Supply elasticity limits the profit range, and stainless steel valuation may be anchored to costs. It is expected that in 2025, stainless steel production and imports will change by +4% and - 23% year - on - year to 39.85 million tons and 1.45 million tons respectively, with a total supply growth rate of about 2.9% [75][78][80]. 2.4 Nickel Ore - In the short term, the tight supply of nickel ore is still a reality, but this supporting logic may become dull in the second half of the year. Concerns about Philippine policies have eased, and rainfall disturbances are expected to subside. Market concerns about Indonesian nickel ore may also ease in the second half of the year [87][88][91].

Group 1: Report Overview - Date: June 19, 2025 [4][9][13] - Report Focus: Green finance and new energy commodities, including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2][4] - Stainless steel: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, resulting in a weak supply - demand balance and low - level fluctuations [2][4] Fundamental Data - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 118,480 yuan, down 90 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 76,829 lots, down 23,626 lots [4] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,525 yuan, up 45 yuan; trading volume was 130,738 lots, up 25,428 lots [4] News - Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered trial production; a nickel smelter resumed production; an Indonesian冷轧厂 planned to continue maintenance from June to July [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipt clearance has accelerated, and potential purchases should be noted [2][9] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 60,480 yuan, up 260 yuan; warehouse receipts decreased by 1,746 lots [9] News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose; Yahua Group planned to restructure its lithium business; Ukraine opened lithium mining to private investors [10][11] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [11] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to be cleared, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][13] - Polysilicon: Upstream production has resumed, and the futures price has fallen [2][13] Fundamental Data - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 7,425 yuan, up 65 yuan; social inventory was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [13] - Polysilicon: The closing price of the PS2507 contract was 33,370 yuan, down 640 yuan; factory inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons [13] News - The US Senate's draft bill on the photovoltaic market did not ease industry concerns [13][15] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [15]