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美国6月ADP就业人数意外骤降3.3万 美元剧烈波动
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 13:39
Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant decline in U.S. employment numbers for June, with ADP reporting a decrease of 33,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the largest monthly drop since April 2020 [1][2] - The Challenger report indicates that layoffs in June were 48,840, a month-over-month decrease of 48.84% and a slight year-over-year decline of 1.6%, suggesting a reduction in layoff pressures [2] - The labor market's resilience and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance may limit market volatility despite the disappointing ADP data, with attention shifting to the upcoming non-farm payroll report [2][3] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate slightly increased to 6.3% in May, reflecting uncertainty among European businesses due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, although overall employment showed a mild increase due to growth in the service sector [6] - The Bank of England faces challenges as market confidence in the UK fiscal situation is reassessed, with concerns about policy continuity and rising expectations for tax increases amid fiscal deficit pressures [7] - The Canadian dollar's outlook improves as trade tensions ease, with optimism surrounding the resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada, supported by the removal of a digital services tax [8] Group 3 - Japanese manufacturers expect the average USD/JPY exchange rate for the current fiscal year to be 145.87, with the Bank of Japan planning to purchase 325 billion yen of bonds, which may put pressure on the yen [9]
“小非农”爆冷!美国6月ADP就业人数骤降至-3.3万人 为2023年3月以来最差
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-02 13:27
Core Insights - The U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly declined by 33,000 in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with significant losses in the service sector [1][3] - The labor market's weakness has raised concerns among market participants, with employers becoming increasingly cautious amid economic slowdown [3][11] Employment Trends - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, against an expectation of an increase of 98,000, with May's figures revised down to a mere 29,000 increase [1][3] - Job losses were primarily concentrated in small businesses, while manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors saw job gains [5][8] Sector Performance - The service sector experienced a notable decline, losing 66,000 jobs, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and education [3][9] - In contrast, the goods-producing sector added 32,000 jobs, with manufacturing contributing 15,000, construction 9,000, and mining 8,000 [9] Wage Growth - Despite the slowdown in hiring, wage growth remains relatively stable, with year-over-year wage growth for employed workers at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.5% in May [10] - The wage growth for job switchers decreased from 7.0% to 6.8% [10] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 [12] - The dollar index fell by approximately 20 points, while U.S. stock futures showed minimal fluctuations [14] Broader Labor Market Indicators - Average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 per month, the weakest level since the onset of the pandemic [15] - Additional indicators of labor market weakness include longer job search times and a significant drop in consumer confidence regarding job availability [16]
ADP报告:私人企业6月份减少了33,000个就业岗位,专业和商业服务以及教育和医疗服务领域的岗位减少是此次下降的主要原因。休闲和酒店业以及制造业则实现了增长。
news flash· 2025-07-02 12:26
Core Insights - The ADP report indicates that private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs in June, primarily driven by declines in professional and business services as well as education and healthcare services [1] - Conversely, the leisure and hospitality sector, along with manufacturing, experienced job growth during the same period [1]
5月美国非农数据点评:就业稳中趋弱,亮点在时薪增长
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-08 00:25
Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]
宏观快评:5月美国非农数据点评:就业稳中趋弱,亮点在时薪增长
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-08 00:25
Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]
就业稳中趋弱,亮点在时薪增长——5月美国非农数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-06-07 14:41
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the May non-farm payroll data, highlighting that while job additions slightly exceeded expectations, the overall employment market shows signs of slowing down, with a notable focus on wage growth as a positive aspect [1]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, surpassing the expected 130,000, with job growth concentrated in three sectors: education and health services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and financial activities (+13,000) [2][16]. - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, but this stability was achieved at the cost of a declining labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.6% to 62.4% [5][22]. - The employment growth breadth has decreased, with the employment diffusion index dropping to 50%, indicating that job growth is becoming less widespread across various sectors [4][16]. Group 2: Wage Growth Insights - Wage growth in May was a highlight, with hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, also above the anticipated 3.7% [6][31]. - The article emphasizes that the wage growth is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of consumers, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, amidst rising inflation concerns [6][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8% [3][35]. - The stock market reacted positively, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising, indicating a rebound in risk appetite among investors [3][35].
【黄金期货收评】沪金日内下跌0.41% 重点聚焦周五非农指引
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-04 07:46
Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures market experienced a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 782.42 yuan per gram, down 0.41% on June 4 [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was reported at 781 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 2.1 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. JOLTS report indicated an increase of 191,000 job vacancies in April, reaching a total of 7.391 million, while layoffs surged to 1.786 million, the highest increase in nine months [1] Group 2 - According to Guotou Futures, precious metals showed weak fluctuations overnight, with a focus on upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report [2] - The international gold price is supported by a strong level around $3,000, maintaining a buy-on-dip strategy [2] - Attention is also directed towards the U.S. ADP employment data and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May [2]
美国4月JOLTS职位空缺意外上升,招聘、裁员增加,自主离职人数减少
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 20:11
Core Insights - The JOLTS report indicates an unexpected rise in job vacancies in April, suggesting a healthy labor demand despite economic uncertainties [1][4] - The report shows a rebound in hiring activity, with job openings reaching 7.391 million, exceeding expectations of 7.1 million [1][4] - The overall trend in job vacancies has remained stable between 7 million and 8 million over the past year, with a significant increase in private sector job openings [3][4] Group 1: Job Market Dynamics - April job openings increased by 0.691 million from the previous month, with the prior month's figure revised slightly upward [1][4] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals remains at 1.0, consistent with pre-pandemic levels, indicating a balanced labor supply and demand [4] - Job openings in April were primarily driven by the private sector, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and social assistance [4] Group 2: Hiring and Layoff Trends - Hiring in April reached its highest level in nearly a year, with an increase of 169,000 to 5.6 million [4] - Layoffs rose to the highest level since October of the previous year, increasing by 196,000 to 1.79 million [4] - The number of voluntary resignations decreased by 150,000 to 3.2 million, indicating a slight decline in worker confidence [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The labor market is returning to a more normal state, supporting the Federal Reserve's view of a healthy employment situation [6] - Economists anticipate a slowdown in the labor market in the coming months due to the impact of tariff policies, although current data does not yet reflect this [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with potential rate cuts not anticipated until September [6] Group 4: Data Reliability and Market Reactions - Some economists question the reliability of the JOLTS data due to a low response rate in the current survey [7] - Following the JOLTS report, market reactions included a decline in gold prices, an increase in the dollar index, and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [8]
美国4月职位空缺意外上升 就业市场依然强劲
智通财经网· 2025-06-03 14:53
Group 1 - The U.S. job market showed unexpected resilience in April, with job openings rising from a revised 7.2 million to 7.39 million, exceeding economists' expectations of 7.1 million [1] - The increase in job vacancies primarily came from the private sector, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and social assistance [1] - Despite a reduction in job openings in local and state government education systems, federal job vacancies increased [1] Group 2 - The number of hires in April reached its highest level in nearly a year, indicating that companies continue to absorb labor [2] - Conversely, the number of layoffs rose to the highest point since October of the previous year, while the number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs decreased, suggesting a decline in confidence regarding job switching [2] - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals is currently at 1.0, returning to pre-pandemic levels, compared to a peak of 2.0 in 2022, indicating a shift in labor market dynamics [2]
美国4月份职位空缺数量意外增加,支持了美联储关于就业市场良好的说法
news flash· 2025-06-03 14:23
美国4月JOLTS职位空缺意外增加至739.1万人,预期会从修正之后的720万个下降至710万人。美国4月 份职位空缺数量意外增加,且涨幅较大,招聘活动也出现回暖,表明尽管经济不确定性加剧,但对劳动 力的需求依然强劲。职位空缺数量的增加主要由私营部门行业推动,例如专业和商业服务以及医疗保健 和社会援助。尽管州和地方教育导致政府部门职位空缺总体减少,但联邦政府部门的职位空缺有所增 加。职位空缺数量的增加,加上稳定的招聘和低失业率,支持了美联储关于就业市场良好的说法。 ...